What’s stopping Braves, Wren from trading a pitcher?
Are Braves overvaluing pitching prospects like Mike Minor? (Hyosub Shin/AJC)
I’m going to refrain from excessive bashing of Braves general manager Frank Wren — maybe just a few jabs — until we see what (if anything) he does between now and the major league trade deadline.
But I do have one question: How much pitching does one franchise need?
The Braves apparently lost out to San Francisco in the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes in part because Wren was not willing to part with a top pitching prospect, like Mike Minor.
Loading ...It’s common in pro sports for teams to overvalue their own prospects. We know the Braves’ success since the 1990s has been built on pitching. The organization has done a wonderful job developing young arms. But dealing a pitcher for a player (like Beltran) who potentially can put a team over the top seems logical.
Let’s look at the depth chart. The Braves have five solid starters: Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe and Brandon Beachy. Lowe has only one year left on his contract and conceivably may not be here even that long. Hudson is 36 years old. That still leaves three starters potentially for the long term.
The organization also has at least four top pitching prospects. Julio Teheran is the consensus No. 1. The next three, in no particular order: Minor, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino. While there’s no guarantee all will make it at the major league level, the Braves realistically only would need two of them to fill out a five-man rotation in the future (assuming Hanson, Jurrjens and Beachy are kept and stay healthy).
So why not trade one? It certainly wouldn’t qualify as mortgaging the future.
The Braves need offensive help. Chipper Jones can’t be counted on to get and stay healthy. Brian McCann is out two to three weeks. Others are either banged up, struggling or both. This is not a new problem, the McCann injury just made the situation a little more desperate.
Wren has the assets to trade to make this team better. But the deadline is only four days away, and San Francisco, one of the Braves’ competitors for a National League pennant and a World Series just got better.
By Jeff Schultz
♦
Earlier: Heyward still determined to make impact on Braves’ system
Earlier: A long night, an awful call, a Braves win led by Scott Proctor
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324 comments Add your comment
Prince Fielder
July 27th, 2011
6:53 pm
Beltran sucks
Fredi Gonzalez
July 27th, 2011
6:55 pm
Jeff – just want to tip my cap to Jerry Means. Helluva game last night.
Just heard that Jerry was placed on the 15-day DL today with a strained OpticalOblique. Apparently, it doesn’t allow him to see the things that are in plain view.
Cheesehead
July 27th, 2011
6:55 pm
Pence has 85 Strikeouts in 393 at bats?
WREN TERMINALLY STUPID
July 27th, 2011
7:06 pm
If Liberty Media and Frank Wren continue to manage The Braves as they are – I had just as soon see them go the way of the THRASHERS and leave town.. I am tired of just a bunch of lethargic has-beens and a poor excuse for a manager masquerading as The Braves – and all that is laid right square in the lap of the TERMINALLY STUPID FRANK WREN.
South ga boy in the atl
July 27th, 2011
7:10 pm
This is just typical Wren. Of course, pitching is our foundation but my God Wren thinks we can win every game 2-1. It’s just ridiculous. For yrs now, he puts all his eggs in his pitching basket. We have, DESPERATELY, needed a RH power hitting outfielder and he has ignored it and ignored it. And don’t say Uggla to me either. Uggla just kept the balance where it was last yr because we were trading right handed power at 1st base for Freeman (left handed power) so Uggla did not correct our imbalance of left handed hitting with little to no power from the right side. Just keep sticking your head in the sand Frank. Good article Jeff
OldTimer
July 27th, 2011
7:29 pm
Frank,
Don’t let the AJC whine you into doing something you shouldn’t.
Sometimes the best deal is no deal.
OLD TIMER TERMINALLY STUPID
July 27th, 2011
7:33 pm
Old TImer you sound like the da*n Republicans in Congress. Why don’t you just sit down and shut up – you’re old and your time is up, past and gone.
dawg4u
July 27th, 2011
7:47 pm
As for Troy Glaus becoming a Brave again, he’s nursing a hammy right now and is listed as week to week.
the truth...
July 27th, 2011
7:53 pm
@Mr. TERMINALLY STUPID
Generally folks that run around c
the truth...
July 27th, 2011
7:55 pm
@Mr. TERMINALLY STUPID
Generally folks that run around calling everyone else stupid, is the one most guilty of the condition referred too.
Stinger2
July 27th, 2011
7:58 pm
The sky is not falling. Those who panic will just build up a lot of unneeded stress. The Braves will be what Wren believes they should be. No need for us fans to worry about something we cannot control.
Army Strong
July 27th, 2011
8:00 pm
I dont see B.J Upton fitting in with this ballclub. He seems a little too arrogant for the Braves’ clubhouse. Everyone knows his talent, tools, and potential, but the clubhouse attitude is such a big part of this Braves team, and I just don’t think B.J would quite ‘fit in’ to one of the best thing this club has going for it.
Scott
July 27th, 2011
8:03 pm
How about from now on, McCann just holds the ball when someone steals. It’s not like he ever throws anyone out. Not worth the risk.
Army Strong
July 27th, 2011
8:05 pm
And just an add-on Cheesehead… Pence also has 62 RBI’s and a .308 average with those 85 strikeouts. Even so, one strikeout per 4.5 AB’s is a fairly average ratio for a Major League hitter.
And that sir, is that.
the truth...
July 27th, 2011
8:10 pm
@OldTimer
I’m sure Frank Wren isn’t going to pay too much attention to the writers on the AJC or any of us bloggers….
All he’d have to do is read about 10 blog posts here and he’d know for sure this place not a repository of serious baseball knowledge…..more like ignorance gone to seed….
rally
July 27th, 2011
8:19 pm
You people that are angry and steamed just need to go out and buy the team. Geez. Quit your bitchin and moaning until you do something about it. Its a sad world we live in alll the people are sheeple who complain and whine about the poo poo that our country and sports world is in. Until you do something about it…you got nuthing to say. FIGHT FOR YOUR RIGHT!!!!
Liberty Media owns the Braves which again is for entertainment purposes only. They don’t have to give you a championship…they just have to keep the funds rolling in to fatten as many pockets they can while the people complain and whine. They love it. Its entertainment. Fundamentals be damned!!!
JMar
July 27th, 2011
8:19 pm
Y’all are whining about not trading for players that don’t even fit. Beltran can’t play center. Rasmus is another lefty and is hitting .246. You’re so desperate for a name you don’t pay any attention to whether the player actually FITS. And then you get brilliant comments like moving Prado to SS. Ridiculous.
Michael
July 27th, 2011
8:21 pm
I am not the least bit let down that Beltarn didn’t pan out. As a Boras player, he was not going to be here beyond this season. And lest we forget, he has been almost as fragile as Chipper lately. I think there are better options out there. Let the Giants take the 2 month risk. My bet? It blows up in their face, not ours.
Wayne
July 27th, 2011
8:21 pm
U all forget. Lowe is soon to be gone. Hanson won’t stay around and JJ we have for 2or 3 years and then he will go for the big money. Hence we need the arms we have in the minors. As for chipper, he has to take the blame for the braves not having a big time player in the line up. His huge salary could’ve been used last year already to secure a big time player. Instead we are stuck with a crock of a player who is going downhill quicker than the jamaican bobsled team. Plus he spends more time rehabbing than Amy wine house with the same results. He is the biggest drag on the braves team going forward.
Al Styne
July 27th, 2011
8:29 pm
The question is valid, does Frank Wren over value his prospects? The Braves have a problem, not enough hitting. My question to you all is this, is this a linear problem? If so, then the solution is easy . . . trade from your strength (pitching) and shore up your weakness (hitting). My contention is that the problem fundamentally is linear, but not with the Mets. I do not think trading a front line starting prospect in division is a smart business move. Jeff F was no longer seen as a front line guy, so he went to the Mets. But Minor is seen as frontline. Wren was correct not to trade Minor to the Mets. The next question which is starting to change the linear problem into a more complex problem is thus: What position do you trade for? I think most folks would agree that catcher, first base, and right field are sacred cows. Second base could use an upgrade, but Wren got him signed up and Uggla has been hitting better of late. I personally do not think Chipper can be counted on, but I doubt there is any way in hell Wren would trade for a third basemen. So we are basically looking for a left fielder or center fielder, and possibly a short stop. Prado can play third when Chipper is out. So provided we have a guy that can play center or left we are good. Is there a short stop that could play third when Chipper is out? I dont think so at this point.
I also think we need another arm in the pen. In a nutshell the question is, what do we need to add in order to beat the Giants, Phillies, and Cards in the playoffs? Dare I say that another arm in the pen is just as important as the right handed bat?
Al Styne
July 27th, 2011
8:30 pm
Value question . . . is a world series title this year worth Minor? Absolutely, but that is too much linear thinking for me.
Blaze
July 27th, 2011
8:32 pm
I am thankful he didn’t pull the trigger for Beltran as well……this is a waiting game. He is going after bigger fish……Pence is my guest. Remember you heard it here first……PENCE is coming to Atlanta….is my guess.
the truth...
July 27th, 2011
8:36 pm
Wow….this blog sounds more like last night’s call went against the Bravos…more like a group of unhappy campers….
Falcon Fan
July 27th, 2011
8:40 pm
Cheesehead he also is hitting 300..DA
Mike
July 27th, 2011
8:47 pm
Jeff…This may sound crazy but how about this…..?
My conspiracy theory for the day is that Wren wont move those 4 pitchers because he does not intend on extending JJ or Hanson and feels that he will need all 4 in a few years. He is GMing like he is trying to save money. $85 – $90 mill a year isnt THAT bad if spent right. Wren just hasnt spent it that well. He has made a few good trades (JJ and Uggla) but he has made more bad moves. Trashing Glavine and Smoltz like he did, the Yunel trade, Farnsworth and Ankiel (when we needed more), the prices paid for Lowe and KK, and finally the immediate hire of Fredi (thought that maybe he should have looked around a bit) and the idiotic hire of Larry Parrish, a guy who has never been a hitting coach in the majors to help a team that obviously struggles with hitting.
I agree, if he doesnt make a significant move to improve this club now and in the future, then his job security should come into question.
Alas I feel that we are doomed to miss the playoffs this year with this offensively, lefty hitting, fundamentally challenged bunch. And I dont think any significant changes will be made until we have an owner that gives a crap!
dawg4u
July 27th, 2011
8:51 pm
Now with both Chipper and McCann biting the dust it will be suicide not to bring in a bat. I know FW must have something going on because if he doesn’t it could be a long two months plus because at the rate this team is getting injuries to key people we won’t even be a wild card factor without a major move.
Bill Stanfill
July 27th, 2011
8:52 pm
The Braves have scored 2 runs in the last 34 innings.
Bill Stanfill
July 27th, 2011
8:56 pm
OOPS–I didn’t see the tag–1 run in the last 21 innings.
Skeezix
July 27th, 2011
9:00 pm
I’m
murf4hof
July 27th, 2011
9:01 pm
sometimes the best move is to NOT move. this is not fantasy league folks…. Wren said months ago he thought the pieces were already here, no need to panic trade
Mike
July 27th, 2011
9:08 pm
murf4hof…
Do you think all the pieces are here?
Maybe for the future, but now? This team that widely cant hit lefties? The team with multiple players hitting closer to .200 than where they should be? This team that is riddled with injuries continually? This isn’t May…this is almost August. Its put up or shut up time, and THIS braves team is doing the latter.
DetroitBraves
July 27th, 2011
9:10 pm
It’s neither true that Teheran is the consensus #1 nor is it true that the other 3 come in no particular order. In fact, the most consistent “consensus” (these things are fluid) is that Minor is the least of these prospects and was a reach based on slot, rather than ability, when he was taken in the first round. It is ludicrous to horde back-end starters when presumably (though I don’t know that this is actually true) they could be used to land a top flight bat. If Minor goes take your pick of Beachy, Medlen and Gilmartin to replace him in the depth chart.
the truth...
July 27th, 2011
9:15 pm
Let’s see….
Jason Heyward…… is sitting tonight….
and so is …
Hunter Pence
you think its a conspiracy ?
heartofdarkness
July 27th, 2011
9:29 pm
The analysis might run something like “do I think this player, under the proposed exchange formula where I must give up X, Y, or Z, gives me sufficient assurance of success that I pull the trigger, accepting that there is no other option which could give me equal or better chances of success”. If you will accept that, then the possible reasons Beltran is a Giant would include: 1) lack of confidence that Beltran is the answer, 2) the probability that the whole enchilada will be on my plate at the end of this season, even with Beltran, is much less than it will be over the next 3 years, as the Braves drop a lot of contract obligations and can build a stronger core with X, Y and Z all being possible parts of the Braves future. 3) the reduction of the bidding pool by one enhances the value of my assets to a much greater extent than it enhances the value of those with hitters similar to Beltran, 4) I want a longer term solution to the outfield lineup, and 5) taking a note from the US Congress, everyone appreciates your wizardhood more if you wait until the last minute to make a move.
DetroitBraves
July 27th, 2011
9:42 pm
Given that the Giants parted with Wheeler, I doubt that the Braves could have had Beltran for Minor. It would have probably taken Teheran or Vizcaino. While no tears should have been shed over Minor’s departure, trading either of those two for a couple of months of Beltran would be a much tougher pill to swallow.
Top Dawg
July 27th, 2011
9:57 pm
Don’t forget about Kenshin Kawakami!!!
DetroitBraves
July 27th, 2011
10:01 pm
If the Astros turned down Singleton and Cosart then the Braves have zero shot without giving up Teheran and/or Vizcaino. Those appear to be the parameters, assuming that the Astros are willing to deal at all. Given Houston’s track record over the last several seasons I thought for sure Linebrink and Proctor would be enough. I guess this means the Astros project both Teheran and Vizcaino to end up in the bullpen.
ET
July 27th, 2011
10:04 pm
If we trade one of our top ptiching prospects for Beltran we will have the use of him for a few months tops. We will have to face the pitcher we traded away to NY for the next 20 years. That would make it far worse than the Texieria deal. At least we are in a different league than Texas. It would be like facing Texas 20 times a year and seeing Feliz’s 100 mph fastball over & over again while we watch Elvis throw out all of our players from the hole. It’s foolish, inept & Wren is the one who knows what he is doing here. If you really want to trade one of our top pitching prospects to the Mets, you are nuts, totally nuts…
DetroitBraves
July 27th, 2011
10:33 pm
You’re assuming a lot about a pitching prospect to assume that he will be both effective and healthy in a rotation for one year, much less 20.
Kerryb
July 27th, 2011
10:41 pm
If anyone thinks that we should trade away Teharan and/or Vizcaino they are completely nuts and I am glad you are not the GM. I don’t care about this year. We will be completely dominating the NL east over the next 10 years when these two are on the rotation along with Delgado. Especially since Boras is Jurjjens and Hanson’s agent. We may not have one or both of them in about three years and will be glad we have these three great arms to fall back on.
Seriously
July 27th, 2011
10:42 pm
The wasnt trading for Beltran…the problem is Boras. Boras is the number one problem with MLB.
DetroitBraves
July 27th, 2011
10:47 pm
I never once said that they should trade Teheran or Vizcaino, though closing every door would be ill-advised. There is a big difference in the projections for those two and Minor. Delgado is less clear. I read recently that he may be headed to the bullpen, which would decrease his value, but the jury is still out there. And if the Braves don’t see a role in the near future for Gilmartin, why draft him?
retired
July 27th, 2011
10:54 pm
do not trade for a Boras REnt a Player
Hillbilly D
July 27th, 2011
10:54 pm
Not making the Beltran deal may be one of Wren’s better moves.
ET
July 27th, 2011
11:10 pm
DetroitBraves : “You’re assuming a lot about a pitching prospect to assume that he will be both effective and healthy in a rotation for one year, much less 20.”
Didn’t we get Smoltz from Detroit many moons ago…how did that feel to the Detroit faithful to watch John pitch for the Braves for 20 years instead of for the Tigers? The chance of that happening is too much to risk here…plus the Boros comments are spot on… I hate that man with a passion. Also we could not have traded for Beltran unless we offered a better pitcher than Minor. The Giants gave up Wheeler. The price was too high.
Big D
July 27th, 2011
11:10 pm
Beltran did not make the Giants better!!!!!!!!! He will get hurt and not finished the season with his gimpy knees!!!!! I am glad he is not a Brave!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mister Frisky
July 27th, 2011
11:21 pm
Well put Jeff.You are the only one AJC who hasn’t drank the hoarding pitchers koolaid.Like I’ve posted several times before.One WS win since they came to Georgia.The Fish 2 titles in 6 years.Way to sac up and speak the truth,too bad that O’B left his in Fredi’s saddlebags while riding on the back of his Harley.
Big Braves Fab
July 27th, 2011
11:23 pm
Amen, Big D
Brian
July 27th, 2011
11:37 pm
We need those pitching prospects! Teheran could be an ace in a couple of years and the others shouldn’t be given away for a rental player. Jurrjens is going to want a lot of money soon and with his agent, there’s a good chance we could lose him. Lowe will be gone before long and while Beachy has been good so far, he hasn’t played long enough to where I would consider him a solid starter. Remember Chuck James? He really faded after a great start and Beachy could do the same. I like Brandon, but he hasn’t played for very long in the majors.
Dennis Reynolds
July 27th, 2011
11:38 pm
Nothing more to say, really. You covered it all, Jeff.
PENCE OR BOURN.