Braves or Falcons: Who’s taking bigger risk minus big move?
"So Chipper: What do you think we should do before the trade deadline?"
Over the next few days, how the Braves and Falcons are viewed could change significantly. Or not at all. Here’s the question: Which team would be taking the bigger risk by doing nothing?
The breakdown:
♦ Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline is Sunday. The feeling here is that the Braves need to do something.
Loading ...I wasn’t completely convinced of this. But when center fielder Jordan Schafer’s finger injury turned out to be a slight bone chip and not just a sprain, and Chipper Jones tweaked his quadriceps in his first game back from a knee injury, it raised the level of concern. Adding Carlos Beltran to the rotation of outfielders — he can play center or right field, possibly in a platoon with the struggling Jason Heyward — would be huge. I know some are pushing for Houston’s Hunter Pence instead, but given that Pence is a 28-year-old batting .308, logic says he would cost significantly more in a trade — and there’s no certainty general manager Frank Wren even wants to give the New York Mets pitching prospect Mike Minor for Beltran.
♦ The Falcons decided to go the route of offense at the top of their draft, taking Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. But now that the lockout is over and free agency is here, the defense needs to be addressed.
I know some fans were upset with the drafting of Jones, given that their last view of the Falcons had the defense getting dismembered by the Green Bay Packers. But the offense needed another game-breaker, somebody who can change the tone of a game. Jones does that
But now, the pass rush must be improved. There are increasing indications that the Falcons may be priced out of the market for the likes of Ray Edwards and Carolina’s Charles Johnson. General manager Thomas Dimitroff’s focus right now appears to be on keeping the bulk of the starting offensive line intact, particularly tackle Tyson Clabo and guard Harvey Dahl. That would be a positive. But to assume the defense is going to get better just because Peria Jerry will be another year removed from a major injury and other young players will be further along is risky.
Who would be taking the bigger risk by doing nothing? It’s close. But I’ll say the Falcons. The Braves showed their resiliency last season after a flurry of injuries. Adding Beltran or Pence turns a strong team into a potential World Series team. But if the Falcons don’t add a pass rusher, they’re banking on a lot of things going right, particularly with their front four.
Ideally, both franchises make a move.
What are your thoughts — who’s taking the bigger risk with no move?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
Previously: Blank will repay staff for payroll cuts during lockout
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186 comments Add your comment
Reality
July 26th, 2011
11:28 am
Jerry is an absolute bust (injured or ineffective). just yesterday we read that the Falcons were in great shape under the new cap with plenty of room to acquire osme big pieces. Today we read that hours after the CBA is ratified, they are priced out of the market. Nothing new here, sounds like the Braves…
speaking of which: The offense has actually gotten worse and the pitching has become average. Alex G., Heyward, McOut, Schafer, and Uggla are automatic outs. They have the worst offensive outfield in memory-just awful (I’d rather see Hudson bat then Gonzales) As such, I wouldn’t trade anything at this point because one player won’t fix this mess. The Braves should actually be sellers and build for a the long term with a stronger foundation.
If it is a foregone conclusion that Beltran can’t be signed because he is a Boras guy, then the same holds for Hanson and JJ. How many years before their contracts are due? They will never have enough money to keep their stars so they may as well get even younger.
I know it sounds crazy, but no way the Braves beat the Phils in the playoffs anyway. The Braves have played way over their head this year and are 6 games back and falling fast. If you consider 14 postseason failures in the last 15 tries, is this team really going to be the one that breaks through? There is no way. Some years the incumbent is so strong it makes sense to plan a stronger run in future years.
Hillbilly D
July 26th, 2011
11:35 am
Salary arbitration predates the Alexander-Smoltz deal, I believe. I’m thinking it goes back to the late 70’s, early 80’s. Anybody know the year?
Alexander went 9-0 for Detroit that year after the trade and Detroit won the AL East. He pitched two more years after that.
Jeff Schultz
July 26th, 2011
11:36 am
JackDennis — Some were turned off by Schafer when he first came up (thought he was cocky) but that definitely isn’t an issue now. He’s grounded, humbled.
Trojan
July 26th, 2011
11:39 am
If we trade a top pitching, we should atleast get someone to help with the massive hole in the OF next year.
CW
July 26th, 2011
11:41 am
Braves need to add a middle reliver more than another bat.
DawgFan
July 26th, 2011
11:41 am
@ thetruth…
I understand your viewpoint. I’m trying to say that we might, and likely would, regret a deal for Beltran. I would rather us get him than Philly, if only for the fact that the last thing we need is for Philly to get more offense.
Reality -
Really? Last I checked we still have a 3 or 4 game lead in the Wild Card and the division isn’t sown up yet. We’ve been this far out and won it before. It’s not the best move to throw our hands up in the air and say “Well, we’ll wait til next year.”
Reality
July 26th, 2011
11:46 am
How is Heyward really much different than Francoeur was? At this point in their careers JF was actually much better-hitting for higher average and a ton more production. Anybody think Heyward will have over 100 RBIs anytime soon? Heyward has 27 RBIs (11 of those were from his own homers). He has knocked in 16 runs other than nimself. Wow, that’s pretty bad.
the truth...
July 26th, 2011
11:48 am
One site rated the Worst Trades in History….(who knows for sure but….?)
Number 4…..
4. Tigers send John Smoltz to Braves for Doyle Alexander (Aug. 12, 1987)
Alexander was the perfect hired gun for the Tigers — the 36-year-old righty went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts for Detroit, and the Tigers won the AL East pennant (they lost the ALCS in five games to the Twins, a series in which Doyle was 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA). Alexander went 20-29 over the next two seasons for Detroit, then retired.
Smoltz, of course, was one of the Braves’ trio of great starters (Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux are the other two) through their incredible 1990s. In 1989, his first full season as a starter, he went 12-11 with a 2.94 ERA. He’s been a four-time All-Star, won the 1996 Cy Young Award, and has gone 12-4 with a 2.72 ERA in 20 postseason series. After arm troubles in 2000 and 2001, he moved to the bullpen and has become baseball’s most effective closer, on pace for 60 saves in 2002.
That was only thru 2002….
ted williams head
July 26th, 2011
11:48 am
the braves by far. the falcons won 13 games last year as presently constructed
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
11:49 am
If we are going to rent a player like Beltran, wouldn’t we be better off trying to rent Jose Reyes at SS from them ? He is a free agent at the end of the year and would be a real sprk plug for the rest of the season. Getting Gonzalez out of the day to day line up would be a plus.
riggo
July 26th, 2011
11:49 am
Could someone teach Heyward to stop rocking away from the plate when he’s at bat
Eddie C.
July 26th, 2011
11:50 am
DawgFan:
If the goal is another WC and early playoff exit, then yes, by all means trade for Beltran. And BTW, yes, the division is sown up. Of course, Halliday, Lee and/or Hammels could fall down an elevator shaft-so yeas, the Braves still have a chance. Probably more likley that things go the way they have and the Braves finish 10 or 12 games back.
Hillbilly D
July 26th, 2011
11:53 am
Doyle Alexander went 14-11 in 1988, and made the AL All-Star team. His last year, 1989, he was 6-18.
My view of the Smoltz-Alexander trade has always been that both teams got what they were looking for. Detroit was looking for immediate help to get them over the hump to win the AL East. Remember at that time, there were 2 divisions in each league and no wild card. The Braves were looking for a young pitcher who could be around for a while. They both got what they were after, which is how a good trade works.
the truth...
July 26th, 2011
11:55 am
Reality….
we’ve played the Phillies about even this year….here are the facts for head to head:
12 games 6 wins 6 losses
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
11:59 am
Heyward and Gonzalez look totally lost at the plate. Very disappointing indeed.
When we throw a line up out there that includes Heyward, Gonzalez,McLouth, and Shaefer it is like adding 4 pitchers to your line up. Just pathetic that these guys can’t at least hit .250 to .270 at this level. At least Uggla is starting to come around and is at least a huge threat to hit a HR even if his average is terrible.
mountain_jim
July 26th, 2011
12:01 pm
Concerning the Braves, at this point I don’t see how you don’t fire the hitting coach. Gonzo and Heyward have regressed big-time this year, seem to have no clue and no plan at the plate and Heyward has so many holes in his swing it’s terrible. There does not seem to be anyone in charge of making any changes to these at-the-plate failures.
MARK
July 26th, 2011
12:02 pm
PROCTOR,HEYWARD,MINOR FOR PENCE
Hatfieldgeoff
July 26th, 2011
12:04 pm
I agree with PMC on a previous post. Braves are not intested in adding anything significant to this team. Their ownership is not going to let them spend any more money. And they can’t take on Beltran’s salary without the Mets picking up a huge portion of it. The mets aren’t going to do that unless we give them Minor. Which the Braves seem reluctant to do (from what I have seen he doesn’t look like a Cy Young is in his future). Pence seems to be too expensive. I don’t want to give away all our future talent for a .308 hitter, although it would be great to have him. The other names are too much of a gamble we don’t need another Derek Lee. The Falcons must get at least one defensive free agent to bolster that unit. But they do need to hand onto the Offensive line and Snelling. They should have signed Claybo last year and their would be less pressure now. We are going to find out about Arthur Blank in the next few days. If he is serious about winning this is not the time to get cheap. He needs to spend or the Falcons window of opportunity will close quicker than you think.
Dawg'88
July 26th, 2011
12:05 pm
Hey Schultz….Looks like Spurrier has lost control at SCU. Why no discussion of his lack of discipline with Garcia. Now the kid’s coach is doing the same. Watch the hypocracy of SOS. He will suspend from games or fire the coach period. What message will that send?
Reality
July 26th, 2011
12:08 pm
Truth:
I think that actually goes back farther. Over the last 2 years I believe we are dead even with the Phils. The problem is, they are far more consistent than the Braves. You are correct in that the Braves COULD beat the Phils in a short series. The Phils have classic power pitchers who dominate in the playoffs though (they don’t lose much during the regular season either).
I just wouldn’t sell-out to try to beat them this year. If other teams are desperate for pieces and willing to make stupid trades, my thought is, why not offer something to the desperate? It’s a much better position than entering negotiations in obvious need. trade deadline moves don’t usually do much anyway. Derrick Lee was beyond awful last year. That trade actually cost dearly us because Cox robotically plugged him into the cleanup spot every night. It was like Alex G. hitting cleanup.
Trapper John
July 26th, 2011
12:11 pm
Read all posts. Braves are falling apart. McCann can’t even hit anymore! Doesn’t the rot start from the top? Unless someone, or something — doesn’t light a fire under them — this team won’t even be a wild card. It’s a crying shame. Get somebody before the deadline to at least show you’re trying. I would personally start with the rookie “no clue” manager. I think his ineptitude filters down into the players — especially the veteran guys like Chipper. Everybody wants another bat. How ’bout another manager in mid-stream??????
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
12:13 pm
What do you think it would take to pry Colby Rasmus away from the Cardinals ? Rasmus is in the doghouse and is essentially the 4th outfielder for them these days. I know he is a left handed hitter but he is actually hitting well against lefties (.256). The guy is going to be a stud. He can run, he can play any OF position and he can hit for power.
Cardinals need starting pitching. What about Lowe for Rasmus ?
Hatfieldgeoff
July 26th, 2011
12:13 pm
Mountain Jim, I know what you mean. But we could go through a hitting coach once a month. The Braves hitters do seem to have regressed. Gonzo should try hitting with both feet on the ground that would be a good start. He is reaching for everything. Heyward’s problem has been mentioned by everybody. He is too far from the plate. But nobody seems willing to force the issue. Sounds like it was with Francouer. I like Heyward but for all the hoopla he hasn’t done squat. A decent rookie season marred by injuries and now he is batting .220 Maybe we could package him in a trade for Pence. It would take a huge pair to do it, but it could be a great move. I am not so sure Heyward is going to realize the potential everyone seems to see.
Reality
July 26th, 2011
12:16 pm
If there is a silver lining it’s that the Braves are propping the Pirates up. Phillies can’t beat the Pirates. Maybe they will win their division and beat the Phils in round 1.
Instead of trading for Beltran, Let’s cut Proctor…that’s at least 4 or 5 games in the standings and won’t cost us a thing!!
Tech Tard
July 26th, 2011
12:23 pm
Would someone please tell me where Pence is going to play? I really wish we would trade Chipper!!! At least he would be closer to his ranch and we all know he hates playing into October. Its bow season yall!!! Watch out Hooters girls!
captguitarman
July 26th, 2011
12:26 pm
Got to give the Bravos credit for what they have achieved so far with good pitching. But the idea that they are starting to fade as the second half begins is starting to sink in. The pitching staff has carried the load, and it is not reasonable to think that they can continue at the first half level without some fatique, slumps (pitchers have slumps just like hitters do) a few more mistakes. But pitching for the Braves, starter of reliever, the pitchers know that there are not going to be enough runs to provide padding against any mistakes he might make. Of course, there are blow outs from time to time, winning and losing, but day to day, just getting enough runs to win a mistake free, well-pitched game has been, and continues to be, a huge challenge. Either reach out and pick up another high quality pitcher, starter or reliever, and commit to winning it on pitching, and then learn to draw walks more effectively, run the bases and steal more aggressively, and learn the lost art of bunting and squeeze plays, so you can get at least one run with no one out and someone on second or third . . . or, get a high quality bat and start with extended batting practices every day – and perhaps bring in a good hitting consultant. But do something. The Braves will never catch Philly, and the Wild Card berth is obviously not a sure thing.
DawgFan
July 26th, 2011
12:27 pm
Eddie C – I’m not supporting a trade for Beltran. I’m saying it would probably hurt us if Philly landed him. I’d like to see Pence come to Atlanta, but the ‘Stros say that ain’t happening. If forced to choose between Beltran and Upton, I would take Upton, because I think he’s got more time left in him, and he’s got the potential to turn his career around. The biggest thing going for Beltran is that he is an extra-base-hit machine this year. He may actually have more extra base haits than the entire Braves lineup combined.
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
12:28 pm
How about a deal like this with the Astros:
OF Hunter Pence, OF Micael Bourn, SS Clint Barmes, RP Mark Melancon for OF Jason Heyward and SP Mike Minor.
Kyle
July 26th, 2011
12:31 pm
The Falcons would be taken the bigger risk because Arthur Blank wants and expects to win. Who knows who owns the Braves anymore but as long as they are getting a profit I’m sure they don’t care what they do. After watching the last week if anyone around that team cares you wouldn’t know it.
Tech Tard
July 26th, 2011
12:31 pm
Ha!!!!!!!!!!
Joe Tess Fish House
July 26th, 2011
1:01 pm
Both teams R domed if they keep doin the same things in the passed.
Braves hire a loosing managar with a loosing record. Fix that first.
FLacons keep waisting draft picks in the fist round. Cant wait 2 see how much of a bust this Juliet Jones will be just so I can say I told u so.
LAC
July 26th, 2011
1:01 pm
hawks need to move to Seattle ASAP, worthless team, lying owners and why this league is here is a TOTAL waste of time, Seattle PLEASE come take them AWAY !
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
1:12 pm
I’d like this line up as an improvment:
1. CF- M. Bourn
2. LF- M. Prado
3. 3B- C. Jones
4. C- B. McCann
5. 1B- F. Freeman
6. 2B- D. Uggla
7. RF- J. Heyward
8. SS- A. Gonzalez
Holoman
July 26th, 2011
1:20 pm
Easy decision Jeff. Don’t resign Jerious Norwood or Michael Jenkins and use their money for a top defensive end.
Braves need 7 new hitters unfortunately. How does 7 guys all slump at once ?
Dr. Phil
July 26th, 2011
1:20 pm
Talk of Hunter Pence is based on the assumption that Houston’s front office is as dumb as Wren. That trade won’t happen. It is pretty amazing that the Braves are where they are with the kind of hitting they have had all year. They may stumble into post season in the wild card, but it would likely be a repeat of last year. There is no way the Braves will catch the Phillies–now or later. All that being said, Fredi is due some credit for keeping them in the chase.
TruthSeeker
July 26th, 2011
1:22 pm
I know it’s a pipe dream, and I probably sound like a broken record, but the guy that could put the Falcons over the top is Nnamdi Asomugha. If you remember back to the playoff game against the Packers, Van Gorder dialed up a ton of blitzes and we were getting to Rodgers, but he was able to hit wide open receivers a split second before we could bring him to the ground. We may not be an elite pass rushing team, and another speed rusher would be great, but I think we can pressure the QB enough with the guys we currently have. What Asomugha would do is lock things up in the secondary to give our front seven that extra split second to knock down the passer.
Asomugha on one side, Dunta’ Robinson on the other and Brent Grimes in the nickel…man, the sky would be the limit.
Holoman
July 26th, 2011
1:24 pm
Jason Heyward = Michael Tucker. Not very good.
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
1:30 pm
The Astros might indeed make a deal. Pence makes $6.5 million and Bourn makes $4.4 million. Both are arbitration eligible and stand to potentially double their salary in 2012 and the new owner has said he wants to trim their payroll by almost $20 million, not add to it.
I know the Braves don’t want to spend money either, but if you didn’t want to pay them you could trade Pence or Bourn over the winter and get something in return. Better than renting Beltran.
Atticus
July 26th, 2011
1:31 pm
When will people figure this out??? McLouth is NOT the problem and Schafer being healthy is NOT the only answer. McLouth’s OBP is much higher than Schafers and is third on the team behind Mac and Freemen. The problem is we only have 3 relievers, we have had some bad injuries, we can’t hit LH pitchers and Gonzalez, Uggla (Until recently) and Heyward are hitting FAR below their average. And now the starting pitching is starting to come back to where it belongs—in the top but not the best. We need a RH hitter but they need to get on base, we don’t need another .240 hitter. Get Beltran.
TruthSeeker
July 26th, 2011
1:35 pm
“Talk of Hunter Pence is based on the assumption that Houston’s front office is as dumb as Wren.”
Given that the Astros’ GM is Ed Wade, that might be a fair assumption.
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
1:43 pm
Beltran is not the answer for this team. He is a switch hitter, but hits much, much worse agaisnt lefthanded pitching. He is hitting a mere .232 against left handed pitchers this year. There are much better and cheaper options for the Braves than Beltran that will help this team with what it needs much better. This team needs speed and needs speed badly. Just my opinion.
Branch Rickey
July 26th, 2011
1:44 pm
If it’s just Minor for Beltran, do it!
BTW, sounds like the Giants are now pursuing BJ Upton (according to ESPN).
Air Zaza
July 26th, 2011
1:49 pm
Falcons need Nnamdi
Braves need B.J. Upton
Bernard
July 26th, 2011
1:51 pm
Pence is the man if signed for several years ONLY!!!!!!!!…please
Jeff Schultz
July 26th, 2011
1:52 pm
Holoman — I like that plan.
Rafael
July 26th, 2011
1:52 pm
Frank “Burns” Wren is furiously working the phones as the trade deadline nears. The only problem is he’s not calling the METS, WHITE SOX, or ASTROS. Frank (firefrankwren.com) is calling Anthony’s Pizza and Pasta, Al’s Pizza House, the Varsity, Oasis Asian Spa (he receives a 10% Kawakami discount), and the Sun Sauna Spa.
Frank will use the $4.67 budget Liberty CHEAPIA gives him at the trading deadline and acquire Reed Johnson. Johnson will hit .360, 24 HRs, and 100 RBIs, PLUS his gold glove work in the outfield. NOT!!!!! Reed Johnson is a journeyman, pig-in-a-poke, bargain basement, garage sale BUM who cannot hit MLB pitching like most of the other Braves.
The Braves success with runners in scoring position is abyssmal!!! Needless to say Derek “Kawakami” Lowe gives up so many runs when he pitches now the boxscore looks like Darren Clarke’s early round scorecard at the British Open. Derek sure earns that 20 million he is still owed. 93TTG;O*$oR@@$#!!!!!!!!
D man
July 26th, 2011
1:57 pm
Falcons – they need to improve the defense to advance farther in the playoffs. They must add a CB and DE would help. The Braves are going to make the playoffs with this current team if they ever start hitting like they are capable of doing.
DawgFan
July 26th, 2011
1:59 pm
Joe Tess @ 1:01 -
Ouch. That hurt to read, bro.
Don Green @ 12:28 -
If Houston would do that deal, I’d probably sign off on it. As much as I think there’s a good upside to Heyward, there is an already-noted positive with Pence and Bourne. You might have to throw Gonzalez in on that, but it would probably even out a bit better.
Don Green
July 26th, 2011
2:00 pm
Yes, he is a journeyman, but actually Reed Johnson would be a smart pick up for the Braves. He wouldn’t cost any major prospects and he pounds left handed pitching. He is batting .356 this year against left handers.
Too tough
July 26th, 2011
2:11 pm
Trade A Gonzalez….he is an automatic out! non sacrificing, swing at the first pitch, hitn into a double play, pop up to the infield with runners in scoring position player..the other teams love to see him come to the plate.. He should bat 9th everygame…why is no one addressing this, and Fredi G…you need to call for a sac bunt sometimes…my goodness,,,we need hitters on this team or the Braves are DOOMED! I would be curious to know how many times this season have ANY of the Braves been able to hit a SAC fly with a runner on 3rd?