Dealing Lowe is risky but it may be Braves’ best option
The Braves mob (and douse) Freddie Freeman after his game-winning hit. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Alex Gonzalez brought the handfuls of dirt. Peter Moylan brought the cups of water. Everybody else just pounded Freddie Freeman into a celebratory submission and Baptism following his first career game-winning hit Sunday.
A win over the Washington Nationals normally wouldn’t seem like a cause for such a celebration, but these haven’t come easy. The Braves had to scramble and rally twice to beat a Nationals team that generally has been a punching bag since 2005 (459-607) but insists on punching back against Atlanta (the all-time series would’ve been tied at 59-59 with a different result Sunday).
But if you’re the Braves, this game was a good sign. They somehow turned an ugly sequence of events — including an improbable poor start by Jair Jurrjens — into a win. They trailed 6-2 before a five-run fifth, punctuated by Brian McCann’s three-run homer. They trailed 8-7 before the .226 hitting Nate McLouth hit his first homer in two months with two outs to tie it.
In the ninth, Freeman, the 21-year-old rookie, hit a two-out single to score Martin Prado to win it 9-8. Then came the dirt-and-water shower. Boys.
“I think it shows our character, and it shows how good our bullpen is,” said McCann.
The first series after the All-Star break only reaffirmed the Braves aren’t going anywhere. They remained 3½ games behind Philadelphia in the National League East and now head on the road for seven games. But they’ve got some decisions to makes, and one of those involves Monday’s starting pitcher in Colorado: Derek Lowe.
Will Derek Lowe be tipping his cap and saying goodbye to the Braves before the trade deadline? (AP photo)
The baseball trade rumor mill has Lowe possibly sitting in the Braves’ departure lounge. The latest is a Foxsports.com story that indicates interest from Detroit. When asked if he could comment on the report, general manager Frank Wren smiled and responded, “Yeah. We don’t comment on any trade rumors.”
That’s true, of course. But if Wren had been asked about a rumor that McCann might be traded, the response would’ve been something along the lines of, “Are you nuts?”
Know this: There is interest in Lowe, and the Braves are listening. But this will be their most difficult decision before the trade deadline (July 31).
Wren hasn’t finalized what he is shopping for, but a right-handed hitter and a middle reliever are the team’s greatest needs. It’s both logical and risky that Lowe might be the bait.
First, the logic. He is the Braves’ highest paid player ($15 million per year) but has been only their fourth-best starter this season behind Jurrjens (Sunday not withstanding), Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. The organization also is pitching-rich again, which makes Lowe expendable.
Here’s the risk: Down the stretch and in the playoffs last season, Lowe was the Braves’ best pitcher. He won his last five regular season starts with a 1.17 earned run average, 29 strikeouts and three walks. He lost both of his National League Divisional Series starts to San Francisco but that was mostly a byproduct of the Braves’ offense: He allowed only three runs and six hits in 11 2/3 innings.
Lowe’s exit also would leave the Braves with a young rotation for the pennant stretch. Hudson is 36, but he’s followed by Jurrjens (25), Hanson (24) and Brandon Beachy (24). If Lowe goes, the fifth starter could be Mike Minor (23) or Julio Teheran (20).
Lowe and trade rumors have intersected frequently since his signing his four-year, $60 million contract. He was upset when his name was floated in the winter following his first season in Atlanta, telling MLB.com: “It’s well-documented that I stunk the last two months of the [2009] season. But as I look at it, ‘Am I the only guy who has struggled for a couple of months in his first season after signing as a free agent?’”
He’s handling the rumors better this time. He joked in the clubhouse, “Hey, I’m going to the American League,” and told our Carroll Rogers, “Why stress over something that you have no control over? … People say we may need a hitter and we have a lot of pitching and I make money. So it’s kind of obvious why you’re named. And we have a lot of good young pitchers.”
Give him credit for laying out the logical argument that could lead to his own departure. Lowe’s contract is far more palatable for a trade partner now than it was last year. The Braves may need to make one more move, and using Lowe as the bait is starting to make too much sense.
By Jeff Schultz
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196 comments Add your comment
RMikel58
July 18th, 2011
10:21 am
Im not all in about trading Lowe for a middle relief pitcher. If he’s traded then it would have to a very RH Hitter. But trade pitcher for pitcher? Then again the team that usually wins in the playoffs are the ones who get great pitching with experience.
I think taking him out now woiuld hurt us in the playoffs. We really need another RH hitter who can hit left handed pitchers. But you know when Chipper comes back then i’d say we match up pretty good against anybody with our players.
I do think the most pressing need is to find a Middle Reliever out there somewhere but if we trade Lowe then we’ll be 1 short and hurt our starting rotation.
We gain 15 million a year but we lose experience and plus Lowe can still pitch and in the playoffs we might get hurt by an opposing team beating up our #5 starter.
I dont know , i guess thats why these people up in mgmt. make the big bucks. Its risky for sure.
UGAFAN13
July 18th, 2011
10:29 am
Lowe is good to start the year and not so good when the weather warms up. He may start winning again but it is doubtful he will be consistant. He is a nibbler when throwing and all the teams have figured out just sit on the pitches when Lowe gets behind in the count and has to throw a strike they are pounding it…so Lowe really needs to go.
DawgDad
July 18th, 2011
10:36 am
Couple of final thoughts: If we trade Lowe and one of the other starters goes down (it does happen), we could quickly be looking up at the Wild Card contenders. Melky Cabrera? Please. I really hope he’s turned a corner on his career, and Francoeur too for that matter, but MC was the worst starting outfielder in the NL last year and probably the most over-hyped player I’ve seen in 50 years of watching MLB. Braves need a Matt Diaz type bench player or better yet a right-handed hitting corner outfielder who can start and hold down the position.
RMikel58
July 18th, 2011
10:39 am
Heyward is afraid of getting hurt again. He’s not gonna give 100%. He’s just gonna limp thru the rest of the season and think about it over the summer. Francouer is tons better than Heyward and he knows that. Francouer wanted more money and the Braves had no options but to go with Heyward.
Dont blame him, blame Mgmt.
We can always look around the league where ex-braves play now and say that we wish we had them back and its easy to compare.
We can only speculate the “what if’s” when it comes down to a ball players performance., I’d take Jeff over Heyward but then again it comes down to money and not so much stats. Heyward may turn out to be better later on and Jeff Franceour might implode, we dont know.
We could do the trade and Franceour comes here and has a bad season, then what? We’ve all seen this before. Guys get the big trade and have bad years and then blossom on their last year of their contract.
We’re looking at the “Now” prospect and the player is looking at longetivity of the game.
Herschel Talker
July 18th, 2011
10:50 am
Freddy:
Of course he’s allowed to make those comments. The fact he’s making the comments isn’t what’s making him stupid, it’s the content of the comments. You must admit that both comments are completely ridiculous. Anyone who wants Melky Cabrera back needs his head examined. And anyone who thinks that there is a way to dump KK’s salary is even more braindead. Those are easily the most ridiculous back-to-back comments made on this blog.
FIRE MARK RICHT
HT
ChillyMutt
July 18th, 2011
10:52 am
I think a bat is a luxury right now. Chipper (not hitting for average but is still clutch), Uggla is starting to figure it out, have some speed and small ball ability with Shafer and McLouth, and if Heyward can turn it around this offense will be over the top. If we can get a solid middle reliever … and maybe a prospect for Lowe – I’d take that.
Bryan
July 18th, 2011
10:58 am
I agree an extra bat would be a luxury. Only please on D where we could fill someone would be CF. We really need bullpin help. the 3 headed monther (venters, CK, nd O’Flar) have been worked hard. Getting rid of Lowe this year is key to freeing up $$ for next year to go get a top OF guy. If Chipper retired and Prado takes over 3rd base full time, then you have a NASTY hole in the OF.
Jos Fan
July 18th, 2011
11:03 am
The Braves have holes and they are in RF and CF. A trade that would upgrade either position, especially offensively, should be considered.
JT
July 18th, 2011
11:06 am
Maybe we are all hyper sensitive after Frency but it does look like Francoeur 2.0 in RF, with worse defense. Forget hitting, when is the last time Heyward dove for a ball or looked like he wanted to win, not just stand out there in his uni.
Freddy
July 18th, 2011
11:13 am
you right JT
Remarkable
July 18th, 2011
11:24 am
Lowe is a Cold Weather pitcher. We will need him if we get to the World Series. Trade him in the winter, but not now.
Bryan
July 18th, 2011
11:30 am
Give heyward some time to develop. he is only 21. media hype has made him the next jesus christ, which has placed unobtainable expectations on him.
Steve
July 18th, 2011
11:51 am
Trade Heyward and Lowe as a package. For all of his talent, Heyward will not produce because he will not listen. Thinks he already has the game figured out.
PMC
July 18th, 2011
11:54 am
People, freaking relax about Jason Heyward. Seriously.
Bryan
July 18th, 2011
12:01 pm
@steve can you give us an example as to how Heyward does not listen? is he ignoring advise on his approach to hitting? fielding? life in general? or is he just not responding to your twitter tweets.
ghostwriter
July 18th, 2011
12:12 pm
I don’t see anyone that could realistically be traded for Lowe on the current Tigers team that would really help us out. So we may as well trade him for prospects.
Just taking a look at Detroit’s prospects, how about 3B Nick Castellanos? Or 3B Francisco Martinez?
The list I’m looking at is: http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/#list=det
Seriously
July 18th, 2011
12:25 pm
While it would be good to move Lowe’s salary, I doubt we make this move and not sure we should. In the playoffs, Lowe can be the extra long/middle RH relief we lack.
jarvis
July 18th, 2011
12:26 pm
Can we get Kowakami back in here?
Daniel Buck
July 18th, 2011
12:27 pm
It’s like nobody has heard of the sophomore slump….. That is all that is wrong with Heyward… Relax people
DawgDad
July 18th, 2011
12:28 pm
Anyone ever hear of the Sophomore Slump? With DU 50 fathoms below the Mendoza line and Chipper on the DL it’s hard for me to be overly critical of a 21-year old kid holding down an everyday job in Right Field, just recently off the DL himself. He’s struggling mightily against lefties this year, but he’s only had 85 at-bats vs. LHP. This does happen to left-handed hitters, and even Chipper has posted bad years vs. LHP.
ChicagoBrave
July 18th, 2011
12:37 pm
@Steve– Have you been trying to give him pointers? Your criticisms seem to point to a lack of maturity, however it’s the opposite that is universally regarded as one of his biggest assets as a young player. He’s 21 years old, and expected to be the face of the franchise in only his 2nd year as a big leaguer. When he develops his talent and puts it all together, which he will, he’s got the potential to be a perennial all star.
I was among the many who have been calling for Lowe and his bloated contract to pack up and leave Atlanta for the past few seasons, but I have to admit that at this point in the season, he’s just as valuable as anyone else in the rotation. It’s no secret that he can be inconsistent at times, but it’s hard to put a price tag on a proven and reliable work horse down the stretch. Even when he’s not at his best, he still go 6 innings and leave having kept his team in position to win…and that is invaluable come Sept-Oct.
If they can move him, I think the time for that comes this winter. Having a fully stocked rotation come September is paramount to any team chasing a title.
Brendan
July 18th, 2011
12:48 pm
First, I don’t like the idea of trading Derek Lowe. Pause. But, to get something good, you’ve got to give something good, and Lowe’s contract still is a good bit of money. It might not be bad, at all, to unload it. I just ask that the return for Lowe make IMMEDATE IMPACT and get the team into the NLCS again. It’s been too long now since the Braves made an LCS appearance. The last time the Braves won a game in the World Series … was Game Two, vs. the Yankees, in 1996.
Can’t be? It is. I checked. Time for the Braves’ new skipper to build his own legacy, as the team distances itself from the legacy of Bobby Cox.
Steve
July 18th, 2011
12:48 pm
After looking at that photo list of the highest paid players for each team in baseball I am shocked at just how well Lowe has done for us. If you look at those guys, at least 20 of them have been far worse values than Lowe. I really think he will spool it up again late this year. His arm will tire a little and that causes his sinker to drop more and for him thats like gold. He was ridiculously clutch for us the last two months of last year.
That being said, if we can trade him for a good RH bat then we just might have to pull the trigger .. BUT ONLY if we are not stuck paying for most of his remaining contract.
The big caveat here is that Detroit has ZILCH in hitting that I think they would be willing to move that is a RH bat. Cabrera, VMart, Oliva, Peralta are all guys they won’t move. Inge is horrible, and Jackson is no better than Schafer at this point. Boesch is the only hitter they have that I would be willing to take for Lowe, and he’s another leftie. I just don’t see us trading with Detroit and gettign the bat we want/need.
Zing
July 18th, 2011
12:49 pm
I agree with the couple of people who have pointed out that the starting rotation in any playoff series the Braves play will go (in no certain order): Hudson–Hanson–Jurrjens. And then maybe in a game 4, maybe–MAYBE–you start Lowe over Beachy, depending on how they’ve finished the season. So, yeah, trading him would seem to make some sense.
However, if you trade Lowe, then either Minor or Teheran finish the season… and there are some question marks there. Whatever you want to say about Lowe, he’s consistently pitched a lot of innings over several major league seasons. We saw how Minor faded towards the end of the year, and has Teheran ever pitched this much? It’s a move that is not without some risk.
However, due to the huge contract Lowe has and the fact that the Braves will need to start worrying about paying their young guns (Jurrjens and Hanson), I expect Wren to make some kind of move. I think that move will not entail bringing back some kind of big right-handed bat back, though. It’s more likely, seems to me, that we get a reliever and maybe a prospect. The only scenario for a big bat would also involve the Braves moving McLouth or Schafer, and no one wants McLouth and his contract, and the Braves still place some value on Schafer. Also, simply Lowe + McLouth/Schafer does not = big bat. It’s not enough. And the Braves are NOT going to throw in any big minor league prospect (Minor or Teheran or Viscaino).
Note also that Wren is not shy about making trades. I think every year since he’s been in charge he’s made some kind of move, sometimes multiple moves.
We’ll see how it plays out!
Daniel Buck
July 18th, 2011
12:50 pm
I beat you to it DawgDad….. great minds
Joey M
July 18th, 2011
12:53 pm
The Astros will never take on Derek Lowe’s contract obligations. I say never because the Braves will not package Teheran, Beachy and Minor to coax Houston into taking Lowe for either Pence or Bourne. If we are to offer a top tier pitcher to Houston, we need to ignore Bourne and go after Pence. Pence is going to be a superstar in this league. Bourne is fast but that’s about it. He is not an exceptional hitter. He manages. We have that already in Schafer. The only way the Braves should pursue a player like Pence is if Chipper retires and Prado man’s third base. If Chipper wants to come back next year, we are pretty much set.
As far as taking on another center fielder, I would only trade a top tier player for Guitterez in Seattle. That dude can cover some ground in CF.
Jason Bay
July 18th, 2011
12:57 pm
They can only trade Lowe as a Salary Dump or possibly get an even swap for Jason Bay. Braves dumped Texeria ,so they can dump Lowe too.
BravesFan79
July 18th, 2011
12:57 pm
Congrats Mr Schultz for being CAPTIAN OBVIOUS!! This article is about 3 months to late tho, he should of been traded while his stock was still high as i said when he was actually still winning games. We probably wont be able to get a decent hitter back now with his stock so low, and well be lucky to find a team to take on his entire salary.
Willi
July 18th, 2011
1:07 pm
Are you going to trade a very consistent pitcher for a righ handed bat? Look what is happening with Uggla and Mclouth, they supposed to be very good hitters. Bringing a right handed batter doesn’t garantee that it’s going to hit well, we know that Lowe is going to pitch well, specially down the stretch.
Go Braves!
July 18th, 2011
1:07 pm
ESPN had stat that said Lowe was 22-22 last 3 years before all-star break and 21-10 after the break. Might need to hold on to him til end of year, then trade in offseason.
Peter
July 18th, 2011
1:24 pm
No matter who we would trade Lowe for it is risky…….look at Uggla as the example.
SkokieDog
July 18th, 2011
1:27 pm
If we can get Len Barker for the stretch run, I say, “go for it!”
Steve
July 18th, 2011
1:42 pm
Sometimes I miss the obvious. After looking at Detroit I am now realizing this has to be a three deal swing. Maybe two separate trades, but three teams involved.
– Braves trade Lowe for prospects which clears money
– Braves trade prospects to another team for a bat
I found a ‘10 sluggers that must be moved’ writeup, and here is that list:
Ludwick
Bay
Francouer
Carlos Lee
Soriano
Cuddyer
Aramis Ramirez
Adam Dunn
Beltran
Jose Reyes
From this list the only ones that makes no sense in any format is Dunn. The rest would all provide a much needed right handed bat in the OF (Prado could move back to LF if Ramirez came over). Lee, Soriano, Beltran and Bay are all ridiculously expensive, even for rentals. Because of that we might be able to get one of them for fewer prospects just because the trading team will want to save a $4-5 million over the rest of the season in salary.
While normally teams won’t trade in their division, rental players should be treated the exact opposite. If the Mets can steal a couple of prospects from a competitor for a rental player it would make perfect sense to pull the trigger.
Personally, if we could offload salary with Lowe and then maybe free up money for Reyes then it would be worth the prospects .. but, we don’t have the luxury of knowing we can sign him beforehand.
Frenchy wouldn’t work because he is loving the run and fun style in KC and the Braves don’t know what a running game is. How in the world Schafer has as many SB’s as he does is beyond me giving the sludge he has to run thru by the Braves purposely watering down the infield to quicksand-like consistency. If he played in KC, Cincy, San Diego, or Tampa where they manicure the infield to help fast guys he would look ridiculously fast.
Ronald Millsaps
July 18th, 2011
1:50 pm
I wouldn’t make a trade. Team chemistry is too strong, and the team is improving. An unnecessary trade could disrupt things— even if the player(s) in question do well.
Dan Uggla’s doing his part in righting his own ship, and Jason Heyward, who doesn’t need to be batting ahead of Uggla, needs to follow suit. The Braves don’t really need a bat. Honestly, the Phillies need a bat more than Atlanta does– and I’m fascinated to see who they pursue.
Lowe also provides knowledge and a lot of intangibles and takes pressure off Hanson, Jurrjens, etc.. One has to consider the overall picture.
Jordan Schafer has been very strong defensively and offensively is improving significantly after being rushed to the majors two years ago— which very well might’ve been Frank Wren’s doing. Yes, he has ironing to do offensively, but he’s blossoming nicely. Impeding this development wouldn’t be wise.
Nate McLouth is earning a spot on the 2012 roster, as far as I’m concerned. I’ve wondered throughout his time here why he has struggled as he has, as he clearly has the God-given ability and the intelligence. I think he a) has lost bat speed; I’ve noticed he fouls a lot of pitches off to the left; b) hasn’t made adjustments to pitchers’ adjustments to him after 2008, and c) has found playing in Atlanta quite different than playing at PNC Park, as opponents tend to be much more focused. I suggest working diligently to bolster bat speed, i.e. workouts designed to increase explosiveness.
We have the best defensive outfield in the game, which is one of our homogenous points right now, and I’d hate for the team to self-inflict this asset.
Marcus
July 18th, 2011
2:06 pm
now that I think about it…maybe trading Lowe isn’t the best idea…#1 – any trade for Lowe will more than likely yield a middle of the road type player like a utility or bench guy #2 – we’re gonna ahve to eat some of his salary for next year and it doesn’t make sense to trade from a position of weakness when we’re only 3 games back…I say trade on of the young guys for a good hitter (which will only be a rental) or stand pat
dave
July 18th, 2011
3:37 pm
Overpaid and underperformed, let em go. No body in the world needs or deserves to be paid 15 million a year.
wins-by-a-link
July 18th, 2011
4:47 pm
Now would be the best time to trade Lowe, Contending teams are looking for pitching to make a run for the playoffs and may be willing to give up a right handed bat or some good prospects, Lowe has not endeared himself with management with his run-in with the Law, The Braves organization does not tolerate this type of behavior. This is the exact situation that brought John Smoltz to Atlanta in the trade with Detroit for Doyle Alexander.
F Troop
July 18th, 2011
5:10 pm
Why again do we need a RH bat? And where will he play? People are out of their minds. Don’t be shortsighted. Lowe is VET pitcher – $$ in the bank for the playoffs. We’re not built to catch Philly, but we can do damage in the playoffs and get to the WS. A post-season vet starter in the playoffs is worth 20 innings of under 3.0 ERA. Besides, our kid arms don’t need pressure handed to them this early in the season yet. I say stick with what we got.
Bryan
July 18th, 2011
5:25 pm
@F Troop. Agree with you 100%. only thing we could use is a little quality bull pin help. get rid of proctor!!
Packer Ed
July 19th, 2011
9:04 am
Becasue of the Smoltz trade and the J J trade, Detroit may be gun shy to do another trade with the braves.
Jump at the chance to trade Derek Lowe to Detroit. Phillies want to win in October and they will not be standing still at the trade deadline. Braves will win world series if Frank Wren can do what Brian Sabian did last year, trade for a player like Cody Ross and not give up much.
geno
July 19th, 2011
10:19 am
St. Louis has placed Colby Rasmus on the block. He is a solid CF and hits with a lot of power. They are in need of pitching. A young stud on the front side of his career. Go for it, FW! Go Braves!
Larry
July 19th, 2011
5:46 pm
i say keep lowe and waive that !@#$% writer DOB!!!.Worse thing ajc ever did!!!
Larry
July 19th, 2011
5:48 pm
genco
show us a link otherwise quit making up stupid shyt
Big Dude
July 20th, 2011
8:37 am
After last night, I don’t know if it would be a good thing to trade Lowe right now. Beachy crashed and burned and showed he’s not ready with only his slider. In Denver, sliders don’t slide, curve balls don’t curve, but homers fly out of there.
benchwarmer
July 20th, 2011
11:46 am
What we hear is that Heyward will be a really good ballplayer one day. I do get tired of seeing him in the line up while he is still mediocre. The man is not contributing enough. Problem is the whole outfield is below par. Braves need to fix that but likly not to happen soon.
eric jackson
July 21st, 2011
3:23 am
Derek Lowe is the guy the braves will need down the stretch. He was their best pitcher against a very powerful Giants team during the NLDS. Low era but the bats could not wake up. Trading him during mid season would be a bad move. I understand the economics so I think the braves may part ways with him in the off season to free up some cash. Kris Medlin is coming back and Teheran. The braves need him now make no mistake about it but next year ….probably not. When his sinker is working, d Lowe frustrates batters and he is very fun to watch. He does not give in. It’s not his m.o. to strike you out but ground out and hit some pop up.