Dealing Lowe is risky but it may be Braves’ best option
The Braves mob (and douse) Freddie Freeman after his game-winning hit. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Alex Gonzalez brought the handfuls of dirt. Peter Moylan brought the cups of water. Everybody else just pounded Freddie Freeman into a celebratory submission and Baptism following his first career game-winning hit Sunday.
A win over the Washington Nationals normally wouldn’t seem like a cause for such a celebration, but these haven’t come easy. The Braves had to scramble and rally twice to beat a Nationals team that generally has been a punching bag since 2005 (459-607) but insists on punching back against Atlanta (the all-time series would’ve been tied at 59-59 with a different result Sunday).
But if you’re the Braves, this game was a good sign. They somehow turned an ugly sequence of events — including an improbable poor start by Jair Jurrjens — into a win. They trailed 6-2 before a five-run fifth, punctuated by Brian McCann’s three-run homer. They trailed 8-7 before the .226 hitting Nate McLouth hit his first homer in two months with two outs to tie it.
In the ninth, Freeman, the 21-year-old rookie, hit a two-out single to score Martin Prado to win it 9-8. Then came the dirt-and-water shower. Boys.
“I think it shows our character, and it shows how good our bullpen is,” said McCann.
The first series after the All-Star break only reaffirmed the Braves aren’t going anywhere. They remained 3½ games behind Philadelphia in the National League East and now head on the road for seven games. But they’ve got some decisions to makes, and one of those involves Monday’s starting pitcher in Colorado: Derek Lowe.
Will Derek Lowe be tipping his cap and saying goodbye to the Braves before the trade deadline? (AP photo)
The baseball trade rumor mill has Lowe possibly sitting in the Braves’ departure lounge. The latest is a Foxsports.com story that indicates interest from Detroit. When asked if he could comment on the report, general manager Frank Wren smiled and responded, “Yeah. We don’t comment on any trade rumors.”
That’s true, of course. But if Wren had been asked about a rumor that McCann might be traded, the response would’ve been something along the lines of, “Are you nuts?”
Know this: There is interest in Lowe, and the Braves are listening. But this will be their most difficult decision before the trade deadline (July 31).
Wren hasn’t finalized what he is shopping for, but a right-handed hitter and a middle reliever are the team’s greatest needs. It’s both logical and risky that Lowe might be the bait.
First, the logic. He is the Braves’ highest paid player ($15 million per year) but has been only their fourth-best starter this season behind Jurrjens (Sunday not withstanding), Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. The organization also is pitching-rich again, which makes Lowe expendable.
Here’s the risk: Down the stretch and in the playoffs last season, Lowe was the Braves’ best pitcher. He won his last five regular season starts with a 1.17 earned run average, 29 strikeouts and three walks. He lost both of his National League Divisional Series starts to San Francisco but that was mostly a byproduct of the Braves’ offense: He allowed only three runs and six hits in 11 2/3 innings.
Lowe’s exit also would leave the Braves with a young rotation for the pennant stretch. Hudson is 36, but he’s followed by Jurrjens (25), Hanson (24) and Brandon Beachy (24). If Lowe goes, the fifth starter could be Mike Minor (23) or Julio Teheran (20).
Lowe and trade rumors have intersected frequently since his signing his four-year, $60 million contract. He was upset when his name was floated in the winter following his first season in Atlanta, telling MLB.com: “It’s well-documented that I stunk the last two months of the [2009] season. But as I look at it, ‘Am I the only guy who has struggled for a couple of months in his first season after signing as a free agent?’”
He’s handling the rumors better this time. He joked in the clubhouse, “Hey, I’m going to the American League,” and told our Carroll Rogers, “Why stress over something that you have no control over? … People say we may need a hitter and we have a lot of pitching and I make money. So it’s kind of obvious why you’re named. And we have a lot of good young pitchers.”
Give him credit for laying out the logical argument that could lead to his own departure. Lowe’s contract is far more palatable for a trade partner now than it was last year. The Braves may need to make one more move, and using Lowe as the bait is starting to make too much sense.
By Jeff Schultz
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196 comments Add your comment
braveshoo
July 17th, 2011
9:34 pm
I would keep Lowe for his experience in the playoffs. However, if we could get prospects from Detroit that Houston would accept, then I would do the deal to add Pence. I would not use any propects to get a reliever. I would call up Viscaino for Proctor now, and use Moylan to replace Gerrin. That bullpen will be great.
Tom
July 17th, 2011
9:37 pm
Paul in RDU – Lowe for Verlander, wow, that would be such a good deal I will not be able to sleep tonite.Next to the Babe going from Boston to the Yankees that would be the most famous(or infamous) trade in the history of sports?
BravesWin
July 17th, 2011
9:43 pm
Sorry, trade-babies, but we need to stand pat for this season, resist the urge to trade away the store, and do our dealing in the offseason.
mojochopper
July 17th, 2011
9:44 pm
I initially think OH YEAH let’s trade Lowe to clear $$$ and get that big time RH hitter to put us over the top….but the more I think about it we might just be better to hold on till the offseason. It has already been mentioned about Lowe’s ability to come up big in big situations, and the dilemma of what position to upgrade. But what concerns me is ok we trade Lowe to clear payroll to add a big bat (difference maker) who is available??? hmm Beltran switch hitter playing good this season can probally play CF with Hayward in RF and Prado in LF when Chip returns…I like that idea but what are the Mets going to ask for in return. No way they take Lowe straight up it would take a 3rd party to take Lowe and give some of our prized prospects to the Mets to get that done. And I just don’t like the idea of trading any of our primo pitching prospects especially to a division rival. Who else is available and at what cost??? Pence—Houston is not letting him go, sorry people. C Quinton–PLS, Does he really make us a better team??? Kemp–I doubt LA makes a move, but I could be wrong….no way I trade Teheran, but if they were interested in Minor as a center peice i would listen. The only position than CF that I think we could conceivably upgrade is SS but are there any SS available that are really that much better than AGON?? If Mets decided to trade Reyes maybe and then we are back to trading primo prospects to division rival. So I don’t know if if it is wise to stir things up with a big trade right now. I think I am ok to keep Lowe until the offseason and just do a small trade or two to sure up the bullpen or maybe for a guy like Infante or Carroll who you can pull in at multiple positions to rest different guys late in the season. Meantime just hope that our offense is going to turn the page in the 2nd half as we get healthier.
Marcus
July 17th, 2011
9:45 pm
ditto, PMC @ 9:26 pm. Is there any companion rumor on who we would get in return from DET?
VinceVanGo
July 17th, 2011
9:47 pm
Lowe has proved that he’s a “stretch run” pitcher so I say keep him as insurance in case Hudson, Jurrgens or Hansen falter. Then trade him in the off season. With Lowe, McClouth and Kawakami gone that would free up 28 million and if Chipper retires the Braves could have or 40 million to spend if Liberty Media doesn’t put a freeze order on spending. With Wilkin Rameriz hitting at .333 and Prado returning to the outfield when Chipper comes back, they and the lefty trio of outfielders will keep us in the wild card lead until the September call ups and the Braves have enough right handed bats at Gwinett(Gartrell, Gomez, Hicks) to help get us into the playoffs. If some team wants to “give” us a right handed bat for a minor prospect then do it, otherwise stand pat.
Dawg Whisperer
July 17th, 2011
9:48 pm
I doubt a trade will happen unless it makes sense to Wren. There is no need to panic and force a deal that does not accomplish its purpose. Besides, the law of averages is likely to catch up with some of the under performing starters. Expect a better second half from Uggla, Heyward and McLouth. Stay the course.
Furman Bitcher
July 17th, 2011
9:51 pm
Trade Lowe for prospects and then get Beltran
Dennis Reynolds
July 17th, 2011
9:51 pm
Unless Wren is already working on a HUGE name, just go ahead and keep Lowe. Our chances at making the postseason are pretty good, and he’s a great big game pitcher. Plus the only real position we can upgrade right now is CF. Technically we could use a boost at SS but thats just not happening.
There are only 2 players that I can think of that would justify losing Lowe. One is apparently not going to be traded now (and if he is, his price tag is getting higher and higher by the day), and the other guy is probably doable and would be a extremely dynamic at the top of the order.
Hunter Pence
Michael Bourn
l jones
July 17th, 2011
9:55 pm
I like Derek Lowe. He’s a gamer, and he’s not a bad pitcher, but I don’t think the Tigers or anybody else (besides the Braves) is going to pay his $15 million salary next season. Would the Braves pay half of it in order to save the other half? I doubt it.
Jimbo Donnan
July 17th, 2011
10:00 pm
Anyone want to give me some money? I will make you rich.
Angie O'Plasty
July 17th, 2011
10:05 pm
I would trade Heyward. He’s very over-rated and would fetch a good player in return.
Duh
July 17th, 2011
10:07 pm
Come on people…Lowe deal will be salary relief for prospects and $$ to add in 2012. We won’t get any impact bat or player for use this year. That addition will be some other means. No more who will we get crap for Lowe…it’s not going to happen…
Najeh Davenpoop
July 17th, 2011
10:11 pm
I’m fine with trading Lowe as long as the Braves get someone useful in return, not the next Rick Ankiel. I don’t mind acquiring a rent-a-player since the Braves look like they could be a serious World Series contender this year. But if there is nobody out there who is a clear upgrade that the Braves can acquire for Lowe, it’s not worth it. Remember that Lowe also has a lot of experience as a reliever, so even if he’s only the 5th best starter the Braves have in the postseason he can still fill a valuable role in the bullpen.
jw
July 17th, 2011
10:14 pm
Only if we can get B. J. Upton from Tampa Bay – a centerfielder that should be able cover the range of our current crop AND hit for some more power.
Have to be careful and not mess up the chemistry of the team – they are perking on all cylinders right now – might be asking for a tune up and oil change at the wrong time!
Very risky right now – the team is young and in the middle of a pennant race – Lowe does provide some veteran leadership for the pitchers.
DawgDad
July 17th, 2011
10:19 pm
Lowe was very good down the stretch last year. Very good. He’s probably just one [cortisone?] shot away from a repeat performance, the issue being the timing of the shot. Too early, it wears off and he breaks down. Too late, well, more of the same.
The frustration with the Braves is knowing what they COULD be if not hamstrung by the salaries of Lowe, Chipper, and KK. Reality says if they trade Lowe they have to eat a lot of his salary, and they lose his down-the-stretch potential contribution. Reality says they keep paying Chipper . . . seemingly forever? Reality says KK isn’t going to contribute anything.
The Nats series put on front-window display the biggest problem the Braves have – they are going to see every lefthander able lift his left arm off the ground from here on out. They need a right-handed outfield bat at least good enough to platoon with McLouth/Schafer/Heyward. They need another Matt Diaz (the way he was, anyway), or better.
Some teams in this position would part with a top pitching prospect to pick up an everyday corner outfielder. If they could get a Pence-type who delivers multiple years of service to the Braves, I’d say they should do it. This is a team that could go all the way. Maybe they can win it all without a trade, but if they do it will be because Schafer, McCann, Freeman, Heyward, McLouth, and Hinske defy all odds.
Worldwide Clyde
July 17th, 2011
10:23 pm
FIRE LD
Solid Corners ?
July 17th, 2011
10:25 pm
@ Angie O’Plasty; My thoughts exactly. Someone commented earlier about us being “solid at the outfield corners”. J-Hype is nothing better then average. I’d trade him now while some other team still thinks otherwise.
jr
July 17th, 2011
10:30 pm
some of u fans are foolish jason is not haveing a good year but to give up on him at 21 is a follish comment hes still a kid and intime i belive minor will be a good picther in time hes not going no where we have many stud picthers but its time to get some hitters real washington in time in the next 2 years will be the team to beat along with atlanta
DawgDad
July 17th, 2011
10:34 pm
The Braves have a solid core of players who are very, very young or in their prime – Schafer, Prado, McCann, Freeman, Uggla, Heyward, (and theoretically McLouth). All they need is a big right handed bat to balance the order. The kids are helping this team win games, and learning on the job. Far, far too early to throw in the towel on Heyward – the guy could go .300/.400./550 or better next year, or down the stretch this year for that matter. He was one of the best all-around outfielders in the league last year; not a Gonzalez or Holliday or Braun, but pretty darn good otherwise.
daddydog
July 17th, 2011
10:37 pm
More important than this trade talk. Go ahead and make contracts to lock up JJ and Prado for 5 years.
jerry
July 17th, 2011
10:37 pm
Just get a trainer who knows a lot about steroids.
Solid Corners ?
July 17th, 2011
10:41 pm
@ jr: I’m not giving up on Heyward. i’m just calling it like I see it. I think (and so do a lot of baseball writers) he will be a servicable/average player and not the superstar that people were hoping.
Josh
July 17th, 2011
10:41 pm
We don’t really need another starter IMO, we need a middle infielder/utility guy who is right handed. I think any chance of Lowe getting traded went away as soon as Medlen was shelved for 6 more weeks. Guys like Jeff Keppinger, Omar Infante, Jeff Baker, Wilson Betemit, or even Adam Kennedy are more likely options and quite frankly more needed. Who wants to go into the playoffs with Lugo as our primary backup? Hopefully Moylan will return so we can end the Scott Proctor experiment. In September we’ll call up Teheran and Minor to work out of the pen and be okay.
Chase Utley
July 17th, 2011
10:46 pm
The Braves have the trashiest fans ever, the are all stupid and run onto fields with wedding dresses, every single one of them. They are the dumbest classless people ever. Yes Braves fans, this is how you sound… all the time complaining about Phillies fans.
GT Alum
July 17th, 2011
10:48 pm
I love this “clutch” title. A player can be mediocre at best most of the time, but if he happens to occasionally come through at a key time, he’s designated as “clutch” and given additional value.
Derek Lowe is a league average pitcher at this point in his career. Yes, he’s still got the ability to get on a hot streak, but most players do. He’s had an ERA over 4 the entire time he’s been a Brave. The past 2 years, he’s gotten the Braves’ best offense behind him and managed to pick up 15 wins, but this year he’s not gotten the offensive support and his record is reflecting that.
If you can get someone to eat most of his contract and send us a valuable player in return, do it now.
Trading Derek would also assuage my fear that he doesn’t hit a hot streak down the stretch this year but Fredi decides to put him in the starting rotation for the playoffs because of his experience.
Paul in RDU
July 17th, 2011
10:58 pm
@Tom
The other deal I was thinking of was Lowe back to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez. It is as likely as any of the other ideas being thrown around.
Marvin
July 17th, 2011
10:59 pm
Hate to see Lowe go but, it does make sense. Please get rid of Proctor. Every time he gets up to pitch the ball leaves the park!!! Every time they put him in I go ahead and turn the TV off because I know the outcome will not be pleasant.
jr
July 17th, 2011
11:02 pm
dawg dad great comment we have a good group of kids and i think the braves and washington will be the teams to watch boy that washingtonteam i like what they are doing i hate that there coach quit i was shocked because most teams will envy washington because of the riches in there farm systemthey have solid coners i understand thats how u feel no hard feelings i always been i die hard braves fan all my life jason made the allstar team last year remember he carried this team at times as a rookie last year at 20 lets dont for get that.Also i still think minor will be a good picther for us i hope they dont trade him u have to be patient with the kids
Speedy Gonzalez
July 17th, 2011
11:05 pm
Trade Lowe with somebody to get a RH bat & dump his salary, ALL outfield jobs are open, we have the WORST outfield in baseball, get some help in here FW, my cousin Fredi is sweatin it!!!!!!
dan
July 17th, 2011
11:10 pm
PPlease get an OF who can drive in runs
The Wad
July 17th, 2011
11:14 pm
Outside Observer…you`ve lost your mind. Trade one of our front line pitchers now? Seriously……… if we could get Keppinger, Infante, or even Diaz and get rid of Lowe I`d do it tonight. Lowe has been good for this team but is not pitching worthy of being on the playoff roster. We have got to find a way to get a bat off the bench instead of Lugo. Lugo, Young, Hicks…need I say more? The playoffs will see us with options in the outfield but a core group that hits 230. OBP had better be good with them or we go down in flames. If the Braves would revert back to what worked so well at the beginning of last year and go deep in counts thus wearing out the opposing starter and getting to the bullpen, then we would find hitting and scoring easier. Not a fan of Parrish philosophy in hitting.
Devil's Advocate
July 17th, 2011
11:21 pm
Some people are total “flavor of the month” fans. What intelligent person would say Francour and Heyward were all hype after their rookie seasons then turn around and say Freeman is the real deal halfway through his rookie season? Seriously? Probably the same people who waffle back and forth between Chipper being old dead weight and the greatest Brave ever depending on if he’s injured or producing.
iTiSi
July 17th, 2011
11:37 pm
Yes, yes, yes, by all means trade him. Do it now, and on the night of his last game in Atlanta they should give away “DLo BobbleBody dolls”.
P. Bull Terrier
July 17th, 2011
11:47 pm
“…the Braves are never going to be players in any knock-your-socks-off free agent signings. Every two or three years we’d better be content with rolling the dice on someone like Uggla.” – Vain Jangling @ 8:34pm
Some of us have very short memories. Signing Dan Uggla was almost universally considered to be more in the “knock-your-socks-off” category than the “rolling the dice” category. There weren’t many RH bats available who were considered better than Uggla last winter and no one would have guessed he would struggle for the first half of the season like he did. There is no sure thing from year-to-year, but Uggla was a pretty good bet to be a sure thing for the next several.
double
July 18th, 2011
12:04 am
Trade Lowe, and throw in Huddy for good measure.
BravesAllTheWay
July 18th, 2011
12:20 am
Hmmm…considering his love of fast cars, Detroit might be the perfect fit for Derek.
Ted M
July 18th, 2011
12:25 am
Trade Lowe for prospects just so you can dump his contract.
Mgibby
July 18th, 2011
12:25 am
I agree that Lowe is a bit too inconsistent during the regular season, but in multiple seasons(including last year), he proved to be our best pitcher down the stretch and into the playoffs. Provided he gets run support(3-4 runs) he’s money in the bank when the playoffs come around.
As far as a bat, there is no one that I can see trading him for where I wouldn’t consider it a dissapointment, nevermind the fact that aside from getting a replacement at 3rd, there’s nowhere in the lineup to add a new bat. Assuming Uggla continues to get it together, the Braves have the pitching and the lineup to win it all this year and I think they should sit tight.
Solid Corners ?
July 18th, 2011
12:44 am
@ P. Bull Terrier: The Uggla signing was considerd “knock your socks off” by Braves fans. Not by the rest of the baseball world.. More like “roll of the dice “. $62 million? Jayson Werth was “knock your socks off” because of the $120 + million contract. Obviously the Philadelphia front office was much smarter then our front office. In hind sight the 120+ miillion for Werth was a roll of the dice.
Rowsdower
July 18th, 2011
12:52 am
The Astros have zero need of a 38 year old pitcher considering they’re the worst team in baseball. If they deal Pence (I assure you he’s not available) it would be for a boatload of young, near major league ready prospects. That would mean at least one of our stud young pitchers, probably 2 and another player. That didn’t workout too well for the Braves when they shipped a similar package to the Rangers.
Forget Pence…
Rowsdower
July 18th, 2011
1:00 am
If you can deal Lowe for a solid middle reliever and maybe a midlevel prospect, you do it to free up money to resign Tommy and JJ to long term deals. You use the remainder to get a bat in the off-season. The bats that are available right now aren’t impact players. No reason to give up anything of value for a bench bat. We have plenty of those. This lineup will be fine once Chipper comes back.
RJ Voorhees
July 18th, 2011
1:05 am
Josh Willingham is probably the most realistic target for the Braves. However, I would like to see Scott Podsenik in a Braves uniform. He has a high career batting average and he is super fast. Go Braves.
Darryl Blackberry
July 18th, 2011
1:12 am
This is a risk I think we’d all take…if John Schuerholz were still in the driver’s seat. I wouldn’t want the Braves to dump Lowe for a no-name .260-hitting mid-season rental, even if he happens to be right-handed. I agree that Lowe should be traded, but I hope Wren doesn’t give the guy away (along with God knows who else) for an Ankiel/Farnsworth kind of deal.
Common Sense, you got it right
July 18th, 2011
1:23 am
A few years back, I asked a certain Braves beat writer why Frenchy was getting all of the press and was becoming the new ‘face’ of the organization when Mac was so obviously heading toward a better career, at least it seemed so, then and now. Answer: ‘Frenchy has the ‘it’ factor’ .
I imagine those words are more vinegary than the ‘cue from Parkers right about now, and not nearly as tasty.
You’re still the best beat writer I’ve come across, DOB, and I read ‘em all.
ScottBravesFan
July 18th, 2011
1:48 am
I don’t want to be mean but if you think that the Astros would trade for Derek Lowe you obviously don’t know anything about baseball or pro sports in general. The Astros are awful and in full on rebuilding mode. Adding a 38 year old starter who makes 15 million a year, meanwhile giving up their best position player in Pence, would be one of the dumbest trades in the history of sports.
JASon
July 18th, 2011
2:15 am
“People say we may need a hitter”
Why don’t you ask the nationals what they think of their new “hitter” (werth). Or, better yet ask the white sox what they think of their new “hitter” (dunn). We went out and got our hitter in the offseason. Leave it alone.
Jason
July 18th, 2011
2:22 am
I have no confidence in Mike Minor, and at least one other person has demonstrated that he too has no confidence in him and that is Mike Minor himself. I cannot agree with trading Lowe now for a bench player, unless it is a replacement for centerfield and leadoff hitter.
Lowe’s experience will be invaluable down the stretch and in the playoff so I hope Frank Wren will review this trade properly.
There was a move made last year which is coming back to haunt us; the glaring need for a right hand stick could have been avoided if Yunel Escobar was not traded. The trade of Escobar was a bone head move to satisfy an old man who was on his way out and who had one championship to show despite very good teams and an owner who was willing to write the checks to bring the best talent to Atlanta.
bobbybrave
July 18th, 2011
2:27 am
go shopping in la……..they are a mess….be careful….the braves play togther like a very hungry team..bring in or trade the wrong guy could hurt the clubhouse
bobbybrave
July 18th, 2011
2:31 am
go shopping in La….they are a mess, but be careful trading the wrong guy or getting the wrong guy could destroy this team..they play very hard together as a team..they are hungry for a championship