Statistical evidence of Falcons’ need for Julio Jones
Despite defensive shortcomings, the Falcons also needed Julio Jones' game-breaking abilities.
Opinions — many dissenting – continue to flow in on whether the Falcons made the right call with the most bold decision in the NFL draft: trading several draft picks for the right to move up and draft Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones.
I understand the concern. The Falcons need defensive help. I’m not oblivious to the 48 points Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay hung on them in the playoffs. I was at the game. But to suggest they didn’t need some help on offense and a potential game-breaker on that side of the ball ignores the obvious.
Loading ...Overshadowed in that Green Bay game: The Falcons weren’t very good on offense, either. They scored 21 points. But one touchdown was a 102-yard kickoff return. Another was a 48-yard drive, following a Packers’ fumble at midfield. The final touchdown didn’t matter: It came in the fourth quarter when the Falcons already trailed 42-14.
But the best evidence that the Falcons needed some help on offense comes from my pal and former AJC comrade Len Pasquarelli, now of The Sports Xchange. Len wrote a piece making the case for the Falcons’ need for an explosive player on offense.
Here’s a key excerpt:
Despite leading the league in receptions (115), and establishing a single-season franchise record for receiving yards (1,389) in 2010, wide receiver Roddy White averaged a career-worst 12.1 yards per catch. As a team, the Falcons had only 32 receptions of 20 yards or more (the standard most teams, including Atlanta, use to define “explosive” plays) in 2010, next to last in the league. The team’s six plays of 40 yards are more ranked 22nd, and White had only three. By comparison, 18 players had more than that.
The club’s average of 6.46 yards per attempt ranked 25th in the league.
Quarterback Matt Ryan ranked 11th in the league in his rookie season of 2008 with an average of 7.93 yards per attempt. Over the past two seasons, though, his yards per pass attempt was only a combined 6.48 yards, nearly 1 ½ yards less. He was 26th in the NFL in 2010 and 21st in 2009.
So here’s my question: With a few more days to think about it, how do you feel now about the Falcons’ deal for Jones?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
Earlier today
– Braves’ Lowe bounces back from arrest and first inning
– Roger McDowell fortunate to be suspended only two weeks
– Braves can’t go lightly on discipline for McDowell, Lowe
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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206 comments Add your comment
marcus
May 3rd, 2011
3:35 pm
with the money the falcons are going to have to give jones i wouldn’t want a first round pick next year they’ll still have they’re second and third and there will be talent there with the pick up of jones they souldn’t have to go O next year look at it like that
Gc
May 3rd, 2011
4:54 pm
There are many reasons to prove why JJ will be an instant offensive threat. At bama half the time he was hurt one of the injuries being his hand and he still put up numbers that are crazy for an injury like that. On top of that he was double teamed almost every play because the receivers he played with are easy match ups for any style of corner b/c they are tiny and slow. They only played because they were sure handed and could block. That being said a secondary coach could have a lot of options on defending JJ, but in The ATL we have RW and that will give any coach nightmares because you can no longer double team either JJ or RW. Julio will have an instant impact and falcons are by far the most dangerous offense in the NFC if not the NFL.
ronster9
May 3rd, 2011
8:22 pm
If you look at the evidence (stats) of the teams in the NFL last year, you’ll see that there’s generally an inverse relationship between PF (point for) and PA (points against). The teams that score the most usually have the least points scored against them. Conversely, the teams that allow the least points scored against them also tend to score the most.
The Falcons last year had a .813 winning percentage with 414 PF and 288 PA. the next place team in the South division, the Saints, has a .688 record with 384 PF and 307 PA; the Bucs had a .625 record with 341 PF and 318 PA; and the Panthers had a .125 record with 196 PF and 408 PA.
Given the evidence, the Falcons defense looks pretty good. Only the Bears, Packers, Steelers and Ravens allowed fewer PAs.
Football is as much a mental game of willpower as it is of physical power, perhaps more so.
If I can score more often than you, and also have a defense that can stop your offense often enough, I win the mental game and break your will. When that happens, the dam breaks and I score even more.
JJ will enable the Falcons to apply more offensive pressure – and that will, hopefully, serve to win the mental side of the game. If that happens, the defense will be even better.
ronster9
May 3rd, 2011
8:28 pm
In other words, JJ is the cherry on top of the Falcons’ Sunday.
Prime Time
May 4th, 2011
1:38 am
We need a corner bad. We are thin @ #3 & #4 corner positions. I just don’t know why you can’t draft 1 corner, but you get a RB when we are loaded at that position. I like the jones pick, but does anyone know how much longer Jenkins is under contract? I may be wrong, but I thought we resigned him recently.
LawDawg
May 5th, 2011
3:34 pm
I will give it a thumbs up if and only if they get a 4th round pick back next year by trading Jenkins (ok, maybe 6th or 7th) and they sign a quality free agent DE like Charles Johnson.