Statistical evidence of Falcons’ need for Julio Jones
Despite defensive shortcomings, the Falcons also needed Julio Jones' game-breaking abilities.
Opinions — many dissenting – continue to flow in on whether the Falcons made the right call with the most bold decision in the NFL draft: trading several draft picks for the right to move up and draft Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones.
I understand the concern. The Falcons need defensive help. I’m not oblivious to the 48 points Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay hung on them in the playoffs. I was at the game. But to suggest they didn’t need some help on offense and a potential game-breaker on that side of the ball ignores the obvious.
Loading ...Overshadowed in that Green Bay game: The Falcons weren’t very good on offense, either. They scored 21 points. But one touchdown was a 102-yard kickoff return. Another was a 48-yard drive, following a Packers’ fumble at midfield. The final touchdown didn’t matter: It came in the fourth quarter when the Falcons already trailed 42-14.
But the best evidence that the Falcons needed some help on offense comes from my pal and former AJC comrade Len Pasquarelli, now of The Sports Xchange. Len wrote a piece making the case for the Falcons’ need for an explosive player on offense.
Here’s a key excerpt:
Despite leading the league in receptions (115), and establishing a single-season franchise record for receiving yards (1,389) in 2010, wide receiver Roddy White averaged a career-worst 12.1 yards per catch. As a team, the Falcons had only 32 receptions of 20 yards or more (the standard most teams, including Atlanta, use to define “explosive” plays) in 2010, next to last in the league. The team’s six plays of 40 yards are more ranked 22nd, and White had only three. By comparison, 18 players had more than that.
The club’s average of 6.46 yards per attempt ranked 25th in the league.
Quarterback Matt Ryan ranked 11th in the league in his rookie season of 2008 with an average of 7.93 yards per attempt. Over the past two seasons, though, his yards per pass attempt was only a combined 6.48 yards, nearly 1 ½ yards less. He was 26th in the NFL in 2010 and 21st in 2009.
So here’s my question: With a few more days to think about it, how do you feel now about the Falcons’ deal for Jones?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
Earlier today
– Braves’ Lowe bounces back from arrest and first inning
– Roger McDowell fortunate to be suspended only two weeks
– Braves can’t go lightly on discipline for McDowell, Lowe
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206 comments Add your comment
flafalcon
May 2nd, 2011
4:58 pm
If Falcons do as well as we hope,. we would also be looking at another year of 27th or even higher of a pick so maybe trading a player to a team that may wind up with better draft pick may not be such a bad thing after all. TD will look like a genius if that happens and Julio winds up working out
Roy
May 2nd, 2011
5:05 pm
He may be a game breaker but for the other team. Just wait and see how many drops he has than everyone will want to dump this loser.
Seriously
May 2nd, 2011
5:12 pm
I just wonder if the same person is posting under different names saying Matt Ryan has a weak arm or that he is the problem. I mean there can’t be that many stupid people can there?
Seriously
May 2nd, 2011
5:16 pm
Julio Jones is a stud. He and Green were head and shoulders above the next WRs. TD went up and got one of them. A gutsy move. This man is tough, fast and will be great for years. Sure its a risk and one we would not have made two years ago. I’m all for it. Will open up lanes for the running game. Can’t double team JJ or RW. We will be explosive.
Birdman3
May 2nd, 2011
5:18 pm
how many time during the Packer game and through out the season did you see the Falcons blitz and not get to the QB, it’s not always the players but the Scheme that gets pressure on the QB, the packers get most of there sacks by CB’s & LB’s and so does the Steelers, Ravens & Bucks, so us taking a DE or DT wouldn’t make near the impact that the addition of Jones will make, even if he gets 2 catches a game, teams will have to respect the deep ball from both sides of the field which will open up running lanes, it’s a win win, and we need a better defensive attack, more man less zone, I want to see a team fear our blitz not welcome it like the packers did. Scoring more points gives the D rest as well and playing with a lead lets you get more aggressive on D.
ChipontheroadBirdsRus
May 2nd, 2011
5:22 pm
JS my respect for Blank,Dimittrof,and esspeciallySmith just grows and grows as our chance to have our “year” of” WE” did it increases
Escaped from Email Purgatory
May 2nd, 2011
5:31 pm
If you assume next year’s Number 1 pick will be from a comparable position as this year (25 – to – 32) then trading two picks that won’t yield an instant impact player for one pick that will is OK with me.
The other picks? I think giving up Two and Four this year and Four next year can be made up in free agency or trades.
If Julio Jones is as good as we hope, we still may have to wait ’til next year to see if we gave up too much otherwise. I think Dimitroff can scheme a way to obtain personnel the picks we traded to get Jones.
What North Arabian Sea Whale Poop said last night:
May 2nd, 2011
5:39 pm
OMG..a turd in the pool!
retired
May 2nd, 2011
5:44 pm
Bold move worth the gamble. But gamble it is. TD get us some defense in FA.
joewhite
May 2nd, 2011
5:46 pm
thankyou @DanWeiner someone who understands at 27 we was not getting anyone who could have started on offense of defense, this gives matt more options plus takes some hits off turner as well, now who will defenss double cover no one without getting beat one on one.
Whopper Dawg
May 2nd, 2011
5:48 pm
There was a need for another WR to compliment White. One with speed. But there were others available when the Falcons would have drafted in the second or where they drafted in the third.
Giving up that much for one guy is almost unheard of, and especially a WR, that position have a history of busts in the 1st round.
I guarantee you that three years from now there will be two or three guys better than Jones in this draft that were taken after him. By the way, you have a ball control offensive coordinator.
The real trick to a top notch GM is finding those types of gems later in the draft (which TD is said to be able to do, but never does), not trading all of your picks for one guy.
The Bucs knocked it out of the park for the third year in a row. We were lucky to beat them last year, I think they get us this year.
Third in the south and out of the playoffs.
Stinger2
May 2nd, 2011
6:12 pm
It takes two players to complete passes of 20 yards or more. If the passer cannot throw a strong and accurate pass that far, then the recievers (no matter how good they may be) cannot catch it.
FACTS
May 2nd, 2011
6:26 pm
Matty will love this new toy, someone just left a ” Porsche ” ( Julio Jones ) in the driveway with keys in it & a tankful of gas. Go Falcons!!! TD wants a playoff victory for Blank, & the bank is open we will sign help on the other side of the ball, working under Belichik has given TD a lot of connects in the NFL! Oh yeah I forgot about the ” Motorcycle” ( Rodgers out of Oregon St. ) they also left!
DEE-ROME
May 2nd, 2011
6:31 pm
Its Amazing how you fans sit on here and gripe,complain,and say we gave up to much.This Guy Is A Baller Hands Down.And if you cant see the big picture then you cant be A REAL FALCONS FAN. Three winning Seasons and counting IN DIMITROFF I TRUST……DRAFT PICKS WHO START, MATT,BEERMAN,Weatherspoon,Moore,The guy is a great G.M. and he knows talent. Brent Grimes was undrafted yet he had more pass breakups then any CB in the NFL and was a PRO BOWLER(with a pick in da game i might add)Know your facts then talk……….
TROTTINGHOME
May 2nd, 2011
6:33 pm
@ WHOPPER DAWG…That whopper you just told …remeinds me of a story…all fisherman are liars except you and me….and just between us I’m not so sure about you
Who will be more successful in the NFL?
May 2nd, 2011
6:46 pm
With 2,026 votes counted,
Tim Tebow leads Cam Newton 35% to 21%.
bigcalidawg
May 2nd, 2011
7:05 pm
TD made the right decision.
It’s tough for “tweener” playoff teams to make that giant leap the following year, without a major acquisition via fa, or the draft, but playoff teams must strike gold, with lower picks for that to happen.
A few things:
WR’s are a much safer bet in the 1st than DE – see J.A. and Aundray Bruce.
Ever been jealous of not having Hines Ward on our team? We have one now….this kid will hit you.
Ever wonder how the Hawks would do if they pulled off the same thing and added a stud big man to that team? (Sorry for the Hawks analogy.)
Winning teams have juevos……….this teams got ‘em.
Oh yeah, we have an owner that ain’t scared to back up the $$$$ truck to bring in ballers in areas of need.
That’s all for now………
to be continued……..
tiger7_88
May 2nd, 2011
7:09 pm
What the Falcons got with Julio Jones is… Michael Jenkins. Check out their college stats. Check out their measurables at their NFL combines. Check out their size. So similar its scary.
Oh… except for one thing. Julio Jones doesn’t catch the ball as well as Michael Jenkins.
So, basically, the Falcons got Michael Jenkins (when they already had Michael Jenkins) for two 1sts, a 2nd, and two 4th round draft picks.
What. A. Deal. Right?
tiger7_88
May 2nd, 2011
7:12 pm
@joewhite said “thankyou @DanWeiner someone who understands at 27 we was [sic] not getting anyone who could have started on offense of defense”.
Refresh your memory, joe… what selection in the 1st round was Roddy White again?
TheAntiMe
May 2nd, 2011
7:17 pm
Some people just like to bitch.
tiger7_88
May 2nd, 2011
7:21 pm
I would have MUCH preferred Cam Heyward in the 1st round, Randall Cobb in the 2nd round, and keep all the rest of the picks to trading the farm for Julio Jones.
Randall Cobb, 3 years in the SEC – 144 receptions, 1661 receiving yards, 13 receiving TDs, 1313 rushing yards, 22 rushing TDs
Julio Jones, 3 years in the SEC – 179 receptions, 2653 yards, 15 receiving TDs, 139 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
Move over Jenkins
May 2nd, 2011
7:23 pm
Michael Jenkins would make a good Tight End,
if he can gain about 25 to 30 pounds.
Whopper Dawg
May 2nd, 2011
7:25 pm
@ Dee Rome & Trotting Home,
The last two drafts got you a starting safety that is still chasing Green Bay receivers and a rotational DT (Peters), this year we had to trade all of the high value picks for a no. 2 receiver three years after TD gave a mega contract to Jenkins. If you see a lot of wisdom in that, please share it beside blindly saying “in TD we trust”.
As long as Blank is willing to throw mega millions at free agents, TD may be able to shore up his draft shortcomings, but that is going to be what it takes. I give him credit for Ryan, but after that the rest of these clowns are not impact players. You better thank your lucky stars that the injury bug has not bitten the Falcons as it did Green Bay last year for example.
If you want to see how to draft, look at what that guy down in Tampa has done over the last three drafts and look at Green Bay.
kaput
May 2nd, 2011
7:31 pm
As a Buccaneer fan, I’m ecstatic with the Falcon’s draft. Losing those picks is equivalent to mortgaging the future for the present, and I like that. The Bucs will be most powerful in about two years and have a long, long window for success whereas the Falcons will likely peter out in a season or two.
Oh yeah, Matt Ryan sucks. Josh Freeman is the man, and you guys know it!!
A-Ville Ranger
May 2nd, 2011
7:37 pm
The problem with taking JJ other than giving up half the frachise and not addressing defense is, he’s not what we need. We need a deep threat and he didn’t catch the deep ball while at Bama. He doesn’t have the footwork to run crisp routes either. He runs VERY uncoordinated for a wr. Watch film of any truly great receiver and you’ll see grace and fine small movement with the feet. Jones just doesn’t have those gifts.
Double Zero Eight
May 2nd, 2011
7:42 pm
Jones was needed. Jenkins was inconsistent.
This was a good move.
Let’s hope we can shore up the need for a DE with
a trade.
Underground Atlanta
May 2nd, 2011
7:52 pm
Almost everyone makea a “big deal” about the playoff loss to Green Bay.
In the regular season, the Falcons beat the Packers and lost to the AFC Champ Steelers in overtime 15-9.
Division Champ Atlanta got the “big head” whereas Wildcard Green Bay did not and got “hot” in the playoffs.
The Falcons are still a damn good football team.
odogg32
May 2nd, 2011
7:53 pm
Comparison will be made between Julio Jones and Greg Little (Cleveland drafted him with Atlanta’s 2nd round pick). On the field they play at the same speed. Combine speed doesn’t translate on the field. Also, keep in mind Matt Ryan does not throw the deep ball well. He is not accurate on the deep ball. The Falcons need to incorporate some of the West Coast offense into their offense. Throw the ball to Julio and let him take it to the house. What I’m afraid is that you will have a lot of under thrown passes targeted to Julio.
honest_abe
May 2nd, 2011
7:53 pm
the game is still won in the trenches and the falcons are still very mediocre on both. there are better overall teams with weak receivers but they didn’t trade away all their picks for julio. (i.e. pitt, new england, baltimore) and the majority of receivers on the most prolific offenses tend to found in later rounds.. i.e. desean jackson 2nd round greg jennings 2nd, mike williams (tb) 4th, mike wallace 3rd, hakeem knicks 2nd and the list goes on and on. so it makes absolutely no sense when only 20/% of wide recievers drafted in the 1st 10 picks over the last decade have turned out to be stars.
just an incredibly bad move that will haunt this franchise for years to come. but its the falcons and we’ve become used to these incredibly sad drafts.
honest_abe
May 2nd, 2011
7:57 pm
sorry hakeem in the late 1st. you can usually always find good receivers in the 20’s. i.e roddy, percy harvin, kenny britt,
Underground Atlanta
May 2nd, 2011
7:58 pm
The Falcons ‘ swept ‘ Tampa last year and will do it again.
Norm Van Brocklin Fan Club
May 2nd, 2011
8:25 pm
Good work Head Coach Mike Smith, keep it up.
JKA
May 2nd, 2011
8:32 pm
So glad we have all these experts to tell us how worthless wide receivers are in pro football. This will be especially welcome news in Green Bay, who can now release slugs like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and James Jones, and just grab some kids tossing the ball around in the parking lot to play WR.
Personally, when a WR makes a great catch to win a game, I usually jump up and yell; I guess a lot of people just shake their heads and say, “we gave up too much to draft him”…..
Playmakers win football games, regardless of position. Every now and then you get lucky and find them later in the draft; but TD simply decided he wanted a better chance and to get one, and was confident his personnel department could find players in ways to replace the precious draft picks. As for those who say he should have drafted a DE/pass rusher, the Falcons felt only Von Miller was an impact play maker; and getting to #2 wouldn’t fly.
Of course, our expert friends have assured us that the Browns will be drafting the next Troy Aikman, Emmit Smith, Michael Irvin and DeMarcus Ware with these picks, so maybe we are in trouble…..
Josh
May 2nd, 2011
8:40 pm
Good article. Good points about Ryan’s pass yards per attempt. At first I was much more negative towards the trade. The more I think about it, the more I like it. However, like many people have already said, it all comes down to free agency for the defense. That will make more sense of this trade.
Emory Road
May 2nd, 2011
8:40 pm
… me is a Falcon, GT, UGA, and Georgia State Panther fan because I attented all three.
… graduated from Georgia State, Certificate from GT,
and went to too many party downs while a student in Athens.
honest_abe
May 2nd, 2011
9:28 pm
hey jka go check and see when all those packer receivers were drafted. it might surprise you.
DrJ
May 2nd, 2011
9:54 pm
I mentioned to Ryan that he build up his arm, eat protein…but he likes pasta better. They all raved about Flacco’s arm strength, but has it really helped him?
Ryan has a strong delivery to 30 yds, but after that it starts drifting. Can the conditioning coaches work on it, or is that all there is?
From what I saw, in the Packer’s game Rodgers was successful because we had zero rush up the middle, and until that is corrected….
X
May 2nd, 2011
11:20 pm
Why do these dumba$$e$ keep saying we gave up 5 picks? The Falcons gave up 4 picks ppl. A 2nd and 4th this year and a 1st and 4th next yr. And it wasn’t to much, you can’t move up 21 spots with back end picks! How bout don’t watch the Falcons play next year and go to Flowery Branch and apply for the GM job and make everything right! SMH!
G4tor
May 2nd, 2011
11:30 pm
I needed no convincing for me to like drafting Julio. I was hoping they would get him or A.J for months leading up to the draft…but I never thought it would come to fruition. I also had hoped we picked up #88 a couple of years back but thought that would never happen…but somehow, TD, Mr. Blank and Coach Smith pulled it off. I have all the confidence in the world with the front office.
MaxxFalcon
May 3rd, 2011
12:28 am
Love it Jeff. Love it more and mkore each day. What Gil Brandt had to say was right on the money. Great pick, genius move!
FaceTheNation
May 3rd, 2011
3:39 am
Cleveland should be greatly improved in the near future,assuming they use their draft picks wisely. It remains to be seen if Julio will help us to improve on our 13-3 record.
Take a look at the video of Dimitroff and Smitty explaining the value of the trade. Look at Smitty’s face while Dimitiroff attempt to excited the viewers. Smitty appears to be a lot less enthused about the announcement.
cwltank
May 3rd, 2011
6:40 am
Jenkins never ran over a 4.5 in the 40. The only similar thing about Jones & him is their size.
The Falcons have Jenkins locked up for a few years, so I can not down him. Julio will be a instant impact. I am shocked that everyone else does not see it. Instaed I only read critsism about our selection. How can he not help the team, we ranked 27th in passing. Everyteam knew they had to stop Turner to win. Now we have a deep threat, Turner will shine. Go Falcons!
Sheezy!!
May 3rd, 2011
8:20 am
Chris Ernest you are right, if those coordinators don’t open up those playbooks they will not do anything. The defense needs to play bump and run, not a zone. The offense needs to be more explosive, they should be able to run screen plays with those big blocking wide receivers.
mE
May 3rd, 2011
8:54 am
tiger7_88
May 2nd, 2011
7:09 pm
What the Falcons got with Julio Jones is… Michael Jenkins. Check out their college stats. Check out their measurables at their NFL combines. Check out their size. So similar its scary.
Oh… except for one thing. Julio Jones doesn’t catch the ball as well as Michael Jenkins.
So, basically, the Falcons got Michael Jenkins (when they already had Michael Jenkins) for two 1sts, a 2nd, and two 4th round draft picks.
What. A. Deal. Right?
What we all got after reading your post………a waste of time.
aprilglaspie
May 3rd, 2011
9:12 am
Just wait until Julio drops the first pass thrown right in his hands. Falcons fans will howl. It’s the nature of Atlanta sports fans.
Bluto
May 3rd, 2011
9:36 am
All of you are so brilliant, why where you not at the draft? This city is made up of the worst whiners I have ever seen. If your so d**n good at the draft maybe we have the wrong people leading the team! Get off your couch and go mow the lawn losers. TD knows exactly what he is doing.
Chubbyboy
May 3rd, 2011
9:56 am
Everyone is talking about the defense last year and how bad we were exposed by Rodgers and Brees…Let’s face it we would have needed to draft 2 shutdown corners and a shutdown nickel back in the 1st round to be able stop these two guys last year..Plus; we were in Rodgers face all night, he just eluded the rush or made the right decisions under pressure..
Only one defensive end has made the Pro Bowl that was drafted since 2007…Brian Orakpo from Washington…Defensive ends are just as much a risk as WR’s..I seem to recall a WR being drafted with the 27th pick (?) several years ago from UAB and he was considered a bust after his first year after dropping so many balls…Remember him??? Roddy White has now been to the Pro Bowl 3 consecutive years…
Jones doesn’t have to be the best thing since sliced bread in his first year…just good enough to be able to take pressure off of Roddy so he can see some single coverage.
The real pressure will be on Murlarky this season…if he doesn’t open up the offense for Ryan he will be out of a job next season…Was the pick a risk??? Absolutely!!!! Did we give up alot??? Absolutely!!! I trust the organization felt their pick @ 27 was going to give them that elite player to maybe get them a playoff win or a Super Bowl next season…TD and his staff have made this organization a consistent winner the past 3 regular seasons…They felt Jones was the player that would make them a playoff winner and maybe even a Super Bowl Champion…
ugaclassof2004
May 3rd, 2011
10:01 am
Jeff,
Worst case scenario Julio is a solid 2#. He won’t be a bust I can guarantee it. This move proves that the Falcons are transitioning to more of a passing team, going 60-40 passing instead of 60-40 running. Also, the Falcons are not that far off from being a Super Bowl contender. The nucleus is there, so we can afford to lose 1st round picks. The elite teams like New England know how to draft great role players in the later rounds. The Birds are never going to have an elite defense anyway, so why overspend in the first rounds? The loss to Green Bay illustrated the Falcons inability to score points in a hurry in a shoot out. Julio could be the X Factor that team needs to open up the passing attack.
Arthur Blank was embarrassed by that Green Bay loss, and Blank is an owner that is TIRED of being embarrassed. I take this move to mean that Blank is sending a message to Matty Ice saying ” You are now the leader of this team. We are giving you weapons to succeed, and now you are expected to carry this offense like a Drew Brees or a Peyton Manning. This crap where you disappear in big games or rely on the running game to bail you out is BS. You’re a 4th year QB on a team full of Pro Bowlers building for a Super Bowl push NOW. Deliver results and earn your guaranteed money, or we will find someone to do the job for you.”
JChikara
May 3rd, 2011
11:04 am
To all of the haters on this blog, let me ask you this: What would YOU have done? Do you honestly think JJ Watt, Adrian Clayborn, or even De’Quan Bowers would’ve made Atlanta’s pass rush into the Steel Curtain? That’s a smart idea, let’s wait two or three years for these guys to get their feet wet. In the meantime, Gonzalez retires, White gets a few years older, Turner is on the downside of his career, and Atlanta is still no closer to a Super Bowl title.
If you’re going to be dominant on one side of the field at the expense of the other (which seemed to work for the Colts and Packers) why not make this move?
realbirdofprey
May 3rd, 2011
11:36 am
Our defense was made for the falcons to have the lead if the falcons don’t have the lead then the defense doesn’t play very well