Statistical evidence of Falcons’ need for Julio Jones
Despite defensive shortcomings, the Falcons also needed Julio Jones' game-breaking abilities.
Opinions — many dissenting – continue to flow in on whether the Falcons made the right call with the most bold decision in the NFL draft: trading several draft picks for the right to move up and draft Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones.
I understand the concern. The Falcons need defensive help. I’m not oblivious to the 48 points Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay hung on them in the playoffs. I was at the game. But to suggest they didn’t need some help on offense and a potential game-breaker on that side of the ball ignores the obvious.
Loading ...Overshadowed in that Green Bay game: The Falcons weren’t very good on offense, either. They scored 21 points. But one touchdown was a 102-yard kickoff return. Another was a 48-yard drive, following a Packers’ fumble at midfield. The final touchdown didn’t matter: It came in the fourth quarter when the Falcons already trailed 42-14.
But the best evidence that the Falcons needed some help on offense comes from my pal and former AJC comrade Len Pasquarelli, now of The Sports Xchange. Len wrote a piece making the case for the Falcons’ need for an explosive player on offense.
Here’s a key excerpt:
Despite leading the league in receptions (115), and establishing a single-season franchise record for receiving yards (1,389) in 2010, wide receiver Roddy White averaged a career-worst 12.1 yards per catch. As a team, the Falcons had only 32 receptions of 20 yards or more (the standard most teams, including Atlanta, use to define “explosive” plays) in 2010, next to last in the league. The team’s six plays of 40 yards are more ranked 22nd, and White had only three. By comparison, 18 players had more than that.
The club’s average of 6.46 yards per attempt ranked 25th in the league.
Quarterback Matt Ryan ranked 11th in the league in his rookie season of 2008 with an average of 7.93 yards per attempt. Over the past two seasons, though, his yards per pass attempt was only a combined 6.48 yards, nearly 1 ½ yards less. He was 26th in the NFL in 2010 and 21st in 2009.
So here’s my question: With a few more days to think about it, how do you feel now about the Falcons’ deal for Jones?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
Earlier today
– Braves’ Lowe bounces back from arrest and first inning
– Roger McDowell fortunate to be suspended only two weeks
– Braves can’t go lightly on discipline for McDowell, Lowe
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206 comments Add your comment
monty
May 2nd, 2011
2:01 pm
GreenBay ran alot of crossing routes (running wide open through our zones or our one-on-one coverage was soft)) where Rodgers hit them in stride and they picked up alot of yardage after the catch. Most of our pass routes seem to be the run 10 yards down the field – turn around and come back 3 yards. Of course you may catch the ball, but your not going to pick up many yards that way. I would like to see a change of passing route philosophy. Also, Ryan didn’t have alot of time to look deep down the field either. What did we do about that?
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:01 pm
mE
May 2nd, 2011
1:55 pm
Gil “The Godfather” Brandt on Julio Jones……..“I’ll tell you what, if you want to look at him, look at what he did against supposedly the best player in the draft [Patrick] Peterson. He caught nine passes for Alabama against LSU. I don’t see any holes in this guy at all.”
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:03 pm
Get rid of Matt Ryan and we’ll be ok..clean slate on our DB’s and we’ll be better (PERIOD)
monty
May 2nd, 2011
2:06 pm
Ryan can certainly throw it as far as Montana could. And Montana completed alot of deep balls, of course he generally had lots of time to get rid of it.
Season Ticker Holder
May 2nd, 2011
2:09 pm
Its good to get an explosive player in Julio Jones. The real questions is can Matt Ryan throw the deep ball. Matt is very good at throwing the 10 yard out route or 10 yard curl. However, Matt Ryan has not proven that he can throw a deep ball that does not float like a duck. In my opinion, the Falcons would have been better served getting an explosive running back to compliment Turner.
El Bravo
May 2nd, 2011
2:09 pm
Everyone talks about the Falcons giving away too many picks but the truth of the matter is that fourth rounders are rolls of the dice, as nearly 80% of them wash out by their third year and only 12% end up being productive starters for five plus years. If the Falcons improve on their performance from last year this trade was in essence the 6th overall pick for the 27th this year and the 28th and the 60th next year. The truth of the matter is that this trade is not that lopsided. Of course, such trade is blasphemy to draft experts because that is all they do. They consider the draft the end all, be all of team building ignoring not only free agency but also each teams depth chart.
Dawg in Malta
May 2nd, 2011
2:11 pm
@Bill
Don’t get me wrong I like the pick of Julio but to say better than AJ…bet on it?
From everything I’ve read Dimitroff was going after AJ but Cincy wouldn’t budge!
So, I pretty sure the Falcons first choice was AJ followed by Julio.
I hope both players have great NFL careers but now you’ve got one player in Atlanta
with a young NFL caliber quarterback and you’ve got another in Cincy with no quarterback and veteran pro bowl receivers begging to get out.
Compare them in a few years but I’ll be more than happy to bet you on it??
I’ll be back in the USA in July if you care to wager??
Osama bin Laden is dead…a day for the world to celebrate!!
USA…USA…USA
Paddy
May 2nd, 2011
2:12 pm
I liked it when it happened and the more days that go by the more I really like it!
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:14 pm
AGAIN>>>
Drop Ryan and pick up a good explosive RB to comp Turner and a solid DB and sign one of the QB free agent studs this year…starting with VICK or even Farve can prob give us 1 more year
vanomania
May 2nd, 2011
2:14 pm
I think our bland play calling has more to do with our lack of explosive plays.
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:15 pm
DB’s…lets get Champ Bailey back home!
El Bravo
May 2nd, 2011
2:17 pm
We had one truly bad defensive performance last year and that was against the Packers in the playoffs and all of the sudden our defense needs major reconstruction. The truth of the matter is that our defense was young and it got abused by a hot QB. We will be better next year with the natural progression of our LBs, and DBs. Also, I believe that Biermann and Sidburry will continue to progress and one of them will take over the right side DE position. If you look at the tape of the game against GB you realize that a better right DE would have made only a marginal difference in that game since Rodgers got rid of the ball at the third or fifth step on 90% of his passes. The problem was that we were playing soft corners, 10 yards deep and we were getting killed on crossing routes. I don’t care if we draft Reggie White he would not be able to get to the QB on a 3 step drop…
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:20 pm
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:14 pm
AGAIN>>>
Drop Ryan and pick up a good explosive RB to comp Turner and a solid DB and sign one of the QB free agent studs this year…starting with VICK or even Farve can prob give us 1 more year
What????? You didn’t mention DJ Shockley!!!! You freak’n idiot!!! How could you forget DJ?
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:20 pm
El Bravo -
Grimes got abused against GB because he’s too small, that’s mainly what I mean with get a new DB (Williams is so-so)..our line an d LB’s are good
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:22 pm
mE -
I love Shockley and always wanted to see him suit up for the reg season, but according to the powers that be, he never makes the cut
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:23 pm
Man……I can’t believe how so many of you experts are not receiving calls from NFL teams. They don’t know what they are missing, some of you are genuises!!!
kerryb
May 2nd, 2011
2:25 pm
Rocket Science?? is apparently NOT a rocket scientist.
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:25 pm
mE –
doesnt take an expert to see someone get burned play after play
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:25 pm
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:22 pm
mE -
I love Shockley and always wanted to see him suit up for the reg season, but according to the powers that be, he never makes the cut
Now that’s truly is not rocket science why DJ didn’t make the cut…….HE SUCKS!!!!
kerryb
May 2nd, 2011
2:26 pm
I agree with the poster that posted, what else can be said about this? It’s done and now it’s time to move on.
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:26 pm
kerryb
May 2nd, 2011
2:25 pm
Rocket Science?? is apparently NOT a rocket scientist.
BWAAA HA HA HA HA!!!!!! That’s a good one!!!
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:27 pm
mE-
Now, I dont know about SUCKS but he definitely cant adapt to the NFL game
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:29 pm
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:25 pm
mE –
doesnt take an expert to see someone get burned play after play
True….DJ did get burned ALOT.
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:29 pm
mE -
I got an even better 1 for you, Im getting paid to write on here, how about you?
BWAAA HA HA HA HA!!!!!! That’s a good one!!!
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:31 pm
Just more proof to me that the Falcons are a little bit more than confused on what they should’ve done in the draft. It was clear that they were trying to go for AJ Green as Cincy openly stated they got a trade offer and just wouldn’t budge on the issue and would not trade. So not only did they blow a lot of picks, they took there “second best” option. Funny thing is, WR is rarely a position that helps a team. Calvin Johnson? Considered one of the best WR to ever come into the NFL and he just made his first pro bowl this year and Detroit has yet to have a winning season since drafting him. Larry Fitzgerald? Spectacular player, but other than one run in 08, where they truly lucked into the Super Bowl in the playoffs by getting hot, Arizona has been bad. Dwayne Bowe? He hasn’t been productive until this year and KC hasn’t been good until this year. Ted Ginn Jr.? Bust, and Miami wasted a first rounder. Craig Davis? Do any of you even remember him? Anthony Gonzalez? Yeah, he was fine and dandy in the first round because the Colts haven’t really suffered, but he has done nothing for them. Troy Williamson? Top ten pick by the vikings who has done nothing. How bout Charles Rogers? I can keep listing the number of times where Wide Recievers have been borderline useless for a team genuinely trying to get better. What the Falcons needed was big defensive help. So no, this isn’t a good pick. No, I’m not a Falcons fan, but as an outside observer they gave up a ridiculous amount (two first rounders, two second rounders, two fourth rounders) for a player who in my eyes will not end up helping them at all. Brilliance on the Falcons part . . .
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:32 pm
Go Falcons!!!
kerryb
May 2nd, 2011
2:32 pm
I’m as big a UGA fan as anyone but, I can’t believe anyone what have the opinion that DJ Shockley would have made a good starting QB in the NFL. He was a career backup at best and would never be a QB on the level of Matt Ryan. Do you really believe that all the QB experts that know the position would be saying the things they say about Matt Ryan about DJ Shockley? I don’t think so. He never got a chance with the powers that be because they knew he was NOT a starting QB in the NFL and backups are a dime a dozen.
falconsam
May 2nd, 2011
2:33 pm
Adding the explosiveness to our offense will help our D significantly.Nothing is more frustrating than coming up with a big stop, only to see your offense sputter in three plays. Once teams are scared of having to defend our big-play O, the D will step up and play with the aggressiveness and swagger we have seen in flashes. Keep in mind, our defense is extremely young, and had 5 first time starters last year. I expect to see a lot of growth from them this year.
GTJeff
May 2nd, 2011
2:33 pm
Rocketscience is truely an oxymoron for you sir. Ryan has proven himself a great quarterback with more to come in the future.
Kane337
May 2nd, 2011
2:35 pm
I love the pick. Giving up 4 picks isn’t the end of the world. Yes it’s 4 not 5. We swapped 1st round picks so that isn’t giving up a pick. How many 4th rounders impact your team anyway or even start? Lawrence Sidbury was a 4th round pick. How’s that working out?
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:35 pm
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:29 pm
mE -
I got an even better 1 for you, Im getting paid to write on here, how about you?
BWAAA HA HA HA HA!!!!!! That’s a good one!!!
DITTO!!!!!
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:37 pm
kerryb -
I never said for him to start, I just said (as a UGA fan) that I like DJ and its unfortuante for him not to have been able to adapt to the NFL game. I said for QB free agents and sign one of the QB free agent studs this year…starting with VICK or even Farve can prob give us 1 more year (cuz i know we wont sign P Manning)
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:37 pm
Lol, its too bad my first comment didn’t go through. Ultimate point: High draft pick recievers rarely help teams. Here is a list of names: Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson (Andre), Ted Ginn Jr., Troy Williamson, Reggie Williams, Charles Rogers, David Terrell, and Koren Robinson. All picked in the top ten in the past ten years, and none of the teams that drafted them were at all better. The one case you could possibly make was that Fitz helped the Cards to the Super Bowl, but even then, where have they gone since losing Warner? No where. Lions with two different top ten recievers? Haven’t had a winning record. You get the point I am making people, a high pick on a Wide Reciever is traditionally useless in terms of wins and losses.
Boxer
May 2nd, 2011
2:38 pm
I think the point that a lot of you are missing is that most of us that post on this site know very little about how to evaluate NFL talent. You have to trust that the Coach and GM, who have been pretty successful by the way, know exactly what they are doing.
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:40 pm
GTJeff, Matt Ryan is a great QB? Fringe level of good right now is as far as I would say. One solid year this season and he has yet to even win a playoff game. Come back and talk to me when he actually does. Sanchez already has 4 in one less year, Flacco has 4 in the same amount of time, Big Ben had a Super Bowl and 6 wins at that point. Ditto on Tom Brady. Win some games when they count and I might start to consider him great. But he isn’t even great yet. And then after that he still has to get to the elite level that is a long, long way away for him.
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:42 pm
Rocket Science, please show some sense, the Colts will spontaneously combust before letting P. Manning become a free agent. Same goes for the Eagles with Vick. Favre is done as well, so I’m not sure where your ideas are coming from.
falconsam
May 2nd, 2011
2:42 pm
Getting rid of Matt Ryan is the worst idea I have ever heard. ALL the success and improvement we have seen over the last 3 years starts with Matt Ryan. The dude has 66 TDs in his first three years. He has inspired the fan base, and given us something to build around.
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:43 pm
GTPhenom -
Thank you sir…I want to win the ones that count!
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:44 pm
And Rocket Science, not saying getting a QB is a bad idea, just that those ideas won’t happen.
Jesse Stone
May 2nd, 2011
2:44 pm
GTPhenom- How many teams that drafted those WRs were already playoff teams that needed a WR to put them over the top? A receiver by himself is somewhat useless, but we aren’t building a team around Julio. Julio is joining a team that’s already pretty good.
RussDawg
May 2nd, 2011
2:45 pm
Grab the big name and all the buzz
Rodgers or anyone else will still shred that D.
What is Jones gonna do while Ryan is getting plowed?
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:45 pm
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:01 pm
mE
May 2nd, 2011
1:55 pm
Gil “The Godfather” Brandt on Julio Jones……..“I’ll tell you what, if you want to look at him, look at what he did against supposedly the best player in the draft [Patrick] Peterson. He caught nine passes for Alabama against LSU. I don’t see any holes in this guy at all.”
GTPhenom, good point but the teams you mentioned didn’t have near the talent on offence that the Falcons currently have. Julio, will draw some amount of attention, in turn making the talent we have better.
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:45 pm
falconsam, he is a solid QB. And fortunately for him, he plays in the weak NFC where there is a revolving door for teams to get into the Super Bowl from the NFC. If he was in the AFC, he wouldn’t stand a chance for a while. With Big Ben, Peyton, and Brady all in the AFC, no one else will get in from the AFC for a long time if you ask me.
Rocket Science??
May 2nd, 2011
2:46 pm
GTPhenom –
I only give those names as the top QB free agents this year. Too many times big (talented) players are up for free agency and we usually are not in the runnings to sign them (minus T Gonzalez)
Jesse Stone
May 2nd, 2011
2:47 pm
GTPhenom- You brought up Sanchez and Flacco which is funny. They are high draft picks that even though they are QBs, they came in to pretty good situations, teams that were already playoff caliber teams. The Jets aren’t built around Sanchez. The Ravens aren’t built around Flacco. They are QBs that happen to play on good teams.
Najeh Davenpoop
May 2nd, 2011
2:48 pm
The title of this article should be “Statistical evidence for Matt Ryan to improve his arm strength”. Julio Jones, as good as he is (and I think he’s great), isn’t going to make Ryan’s deep passes float any less than they currently do.
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:49 pm
I’m all for a great offensive talent, but you seem to think the Falcons are going to magically replicate the success from last year. News flash, they aren’t. First place schedule this year will hurt them. And regardless of anything ANY of you say, Julio isn’t out there playing defense now is he. It starts with the Defense. Ask my team. The Steelers have built from the Defense up since the 70s and where has it gotten them? 8 Super Bowls with Six currently on display. It is a lot better to stop someone than try and get into a shootout against every team. There is that old saying, “DEFENSE wins CHAMPIONSHIPS!” Not Wide Recievers.
mE
May 2nd, 2011
2:49 pm
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:40 pm
GTJeff, Matt Ryan is a great QB? Fringe level of good right now is as far as I would say.
Again, all experts say differently. “Fringe level of good”, it’s obvious you are a GT fan not a graduate because no one with an education from GT could be so STUPID.
GTPhenom
May 2nd, 2011
2:51 pm
Other than the fact that everyone got so overworked and emotional about vick and Petrino, it isn’t like the Falcons haven’t had talent. And really, your telling me Flacco at the very least has had weapons like Ryan has had all three years? Flacco had Ray Rice and that was it. Ryan has had a great offensive line, a spctacular WR, and a all pro Running Back. It isn’t like Ryan had no talent around him, because Atlanta was certainly not the Browns or Detroit. And yet he has yet to get it done. If he can actually win a playoff game I might start to believe in all the hype . . . a little.
malibuGT
May 2nd, 2011
2:53 pm
I’d rather have a new offensive coordinator than a new receiver. I worry that Mularky will turn JJ into a similar receiver as Jenkins. But i figure if this doesn’t work well next year, it will make it easier to replace the coordinator, since it can’t be TD’s fault