NFL draft: Cam Newton will succeed, Tim Tebow won’t
Cam Newton could be first pick in draft.
Tim Tebow was a surprising first-round pick.
Tim Tebow was drafted in the first round by the Denver Broncos last year. That decision was such an overwhelming success that the organization was mocked and ridiculed, the Broncos finished 4-12 and coach Josh McDaniels, who pushed the button on the decision, was fired.
Cam Newton is expected to be the first overall pick of tonight’s NFL draft by Carolina. There’s a pretty good chance many will ridicule them for it. But it says here the Panthers would not be making a mistake.
Loading ...I can’t remember the last time two quarterbacks caused so much debate and even moronic dissection going into a draft. One draft analyst, Nolan Narwocki of Pro Football Weekly, even declared that Newton “has a fake smile.”
If that were the determining factor for success, you can throw out half of the Hall of Fame.
I am not a draft expert, something I’m comfortable admitting since even draft experts are not draft experts. (Hindsight proves that.) But I’ll go out on a limb on this one: Cam Newton will succeed as a starting NFL quarterback and Tim Tebow won’t.
Before I turn it over to you for your thoughts on the subject — and don’t forget to vote in our poll — here are some thoughts from your amateur draftnik.
♦ Tebow: He’s a great kid. He’s popular. He’s religious. I’m guessing you’ve heard all of those things. Did you also know that he ranked fifth in the NFL in jersey sales last season? The top five: 1) Troy Polamalu (Super Bowl winner); 2) Aaron Rodgers (Super Bowl winner); 3) Drew Brees (Super Bowl winner); 4) Peyton Manning (Super Bowl winner); 5) Tebow (9 games, 3 starts, five touchdowns, three interceptions, one fumble, six sacks).
Tebow is a project. He was a great college quarterback who projected as a mid-round pick for a team to take a flier on. McDaniels was a young, cocky coach with an offensive background and his ego convinced him that he could turn Tebow into something great. It was a bad decision. Now Tebow is stuck on a bad team with Brady Quinn and Kyle Orton to learn from. Good luck with that. If anything, there’s less of a chance of Tebow developing now than there was before.
♦ Newton: He has NFL-caliber talent. He has size, speed, strength. He enables a coach to expand the playbook because of his speed. The one trait he and Tebow shared in college is they both knew how to come through in big moments and win big games. The difference is that Newton progressed at a ridiculous rate from the start of last season with Auburn to the end. Tebow, not so much. Newton went from off the NFL radar to projected first-rounder. Tebow remained a source for debate.
Nobody ever has faced the scrutiny and pressure Newton did last season leading up to big games. He succeeded anyway. Whether you believe he is guilty or innocent of shenanigans surrounding his recruiting process, his resolve and resilience are undeniable.
Are there red flags with Newton? Absolutely. NFL teams don’t quickly dismiss potential character flaws before drafts, especially when considering taking the player in the first round. But it’s hard for me to look at what he did in one season at Auburn and project that he is going to faceplant as a pro.
Those are my thoughts. Now, I welcome yours.
NFL draft coverage: I’ll be blogging at least two more times today on the draft. The next post likely will be an early Falcons’ draft column, to be updated later tonight.
By Jeff Schultz
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271 comments Add your comment
Go for 2
April 28th, 2011
11:49 am
Jeff:
Great analysis. So if you asked a scout what position partucularly requires size, speed, strength, how many would say “Oh the QB position requires those attributes the most.
My point? You don’t even mention Newton’s passing ability, adaptability to NFL offenses, ability to audible, read defenses….what kind of analysis is this? Nice in-depth research, really really insightful, Jeff.
GF2
GaBlue
April 28th, 2011
11:51 am
I have to chuckle at the self-righteous blowhards who are so certain they can predict a person’s entire lifetime of “ethics” based on some trouble he got into as a teenager. It’s not like he stalked and killed a family! Most people you know did some stupid crap at 18 or 19 that they wouldn’t want you to know about now. Not everyone comes from perfect parents, and taking responsibility for one’s life is learned behavior. Time will tell.
Contractor
April 28th, 2011
11:51 am
Najeh Davenpoop,
He could be as smart as Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, or Warren Buffet, but if he makes decisions like he did to steal from other people like he did at Florida, or cheat like he did at Florida, then it really doesn’t matter how intelligent you are, it’s the decisions we make that make us successful.
Dawglasville
April 28th, 2011
11:56 am
White guys hating black guys. Black guys hating white guys. White guys defending white guys. Black guys defending black guys. Sooo many people riding for the brand. I’m sad to say that insecurity is truly color blind.
Walker, Texas Ranger
April 28th, 2011
11:56 am
Your half right
Crapshoot
April 28th, 2011
11:56 am
Out of the major U.S. sports, projecting success in the NFL is by far the hardest. I’m laughing at you guys thinking that the margin for success between Cam and Tebow lies with character (have you guys paid attention to the police blog since the Super Bowl).
I don’t know which of the two will be better, but here’s hoping that they both will.
Damon
April 28th, 2011
12:00 pm
Lets look at the facts here. In today’s NFL QB’s from any type of option offense fail miserably as NFL QB’s. Take a look at the last 10 Superbowl winners and look at the QB’s of the winning teams. All of them came from a more pro-style, passing offense and not an option offense.
Tebow and Newton both could make it or be a bust, just depends on how fast they can adapt to being more of a pocket passer and rollout passer than an option QB. They have to make the short, intermediate and long throws accurately and be able to stay in the pocket even when it starts getting tight and not running at the first sign of trouble. Tebow progressed in this a little last year but he has a long way to go.
WmG
April 28th, 2011
12:01 pm
Tebow seems genuine and was a top-flight college QB. Newton – yes, him too, and – in my book an even better college QB.
But neither one of them will be more than adequate. Newton has the best chance to prove me wrong. Mallett – character issues, slow feet, poor reads – will be a Hall of Fame QB. Someone will get a bargain drafting him.
Character Police
April 28th, 2011
12:02 pm
Funny how the same people who dislike Cam because of his “character issues” openly insult him and wish his failure in the NFL. It appears that many of you have the same “character issues.”
JSS
April 28th, 2011
12:07 pm
Billy Kilmer could lead, but eventually he’d always run into a team that could knock the “rah-rah” out of him… The same was true was true for Roman Grabiel and Joe Kapp. This is the thing about the NFL, I never assume who will fail. It is up to the player to get the job done.
Panthers fan
April 28th, 2011
12:12 pm
As a longtime Panthers fan, the fact that the Panthers are this interested in drafting him is a sign that he isn’t going to pan out. Character has very little to do with success in football, but even raw talent won’t help him succeed or progress with a Panthers team that has very few tools to help him.
Ryan
April 28th, 2011
12:12 pm
Schultz- Watch the Gruden QB camp with Cam. Dude couldn’t even call a play. Great talent and fun to watch. The league is big enough for both to succeed.
wxwax
April 28th, 2011
12:17 pm
The NFL isn’t MIT.
Michael Vick and Brett Favre proved that.
If Cam Newton works at it, he can be a success.
Dawglasville
April 28th, 2011
12:18 pm
JSS – It is up to the player to get the job done.
You’re right. To add to that football has more variables than all of the major sports. If a guy sucks, lovers are going to blame the line, receivers, schemes, coaching, fans. The haters are going to say, “See. I told you so.” Ultimately, most people won’t change their point of view on the guy no matter how it shakes out on the field.
ATLER (ramblin wreck)
April 28th, 2011
12:18 pm
Birther is not name calling and people who they are. I’m going to call out the pink elephant in the room. College football recruiting is a business whether you like it or not people. Like I said earlier there’s been 1000s of college recruits who’s fathers got paid for their comments to a certain University, but we want to single out Cam???!!!!!!! Craig James is respected as an athlete and commentator. He took money to go to SMU, but we look pass that. Go figure huh???!!!!!!!! Contractor what world do you live in???? It’s not hunky dorry like you think my friend.
GTBob
April 28th, 2011
12:19 pm
Crapshoot, I think one of the biggest problems with predicting success in the NFL is the fact that the high picks are going to go to awful teams. Cam Newton is about to begin his career on the worst passing team in the NFL, with the worst pass rush defense, and in one of the stronger divisions in the NFL. It’s not exactly an easy thing to overcome. I’m not so sure that Jimmy Clausen is as bad as he has looked at Carolina. Cam will have his work cut out for him and he will be running an offense that he is not accustomed to.
Just Sayin'
April 28th, 2011
12:20 pm
Cam Newton is dumber than a bag of hammers. He will not be able to grasp the NFL game.
Howard
April 28th, 2011
12:20 pm
Mel Kiper said that Emmitt Smith would not make it in college because he was too slow. All the experts drooled over the way Jeff George could throw a football. These are just two of the many many examples of the experts getting it wrong. I think sometimes the experts look at how the players do on the tests (speed, etc) they are given and their size. I think they do this because they are too afraid to use their personal judgment and fail. The really good sports minds see all the intangibles and find the successful players. Time and time again we see this with organizations that make their personnel decisions on their own evaluation of the player. The Falcons are a good example of that now, but I would also point to New England. When I was a child growing up in Florida the Miami Dolphins were the same. Look back at the 1972 superbowl team and look player by player. they had a lot of players that were not rated very highly. So, as far as Tebow and Newton are concerned, I would not be surprised either way by either player. I will make my judgment after watching each of them actually play a significant number of pro games, not on the basis of their speed, size, strength, throwing motion, or intelligence.
Facts
April 28th, 2011
12:20 pm
“Dude couldn’t even call a play.” – Not true. He called 36, which a play at Auburn. What he could not do is call a play using NFL terminology.
DC Dirty Bird
April 28th, 2011
12:21 pm
So lets get this straight, Brett Favre, he of pain killer addiction, alcoholism, and adultery is a Super Bowl winning highly revered quarterback. Cam Newton, because of his “character issues” will never amount to anything in the NFL. Ben Rothleisberger, the womanizing sexual assault artist, is a two time Super Bowl champ and considered a top tier QB in the NFL. However, because his dad wanted a cut of the money Auburn was going to make off of his son and because he bought a laptop he knew was stolen at the ripe age of 18, Cam Newton will never be successful in the NFL. Something doesn’t add up.
Tossed Salad
April 28th, 2011
12:22 pm
You forget one key factor, Shultz. Cam Newton is a bona fide idiot. He’s as dumb as a box of rocks. That translates to NFL success very rarely.
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April 28th, 2011
12:22 pm
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Paul N Destin
April 28th, 2011
12:22 pm
Cam Newton will never be a starting QB in the NFL for more than three or four games.
JSS
April 28th, 2011
12:25 pm
For all of you holding up “character,” go ask Gary Kildall about how much “character” Bill Gates has… Then go ask Mrs. Warren Buffett about her husband’s “character.” And in closing, Steve Jobs sure had tons of “character” when he tore through Apple before being disposed the first time around. The Native American proverb is true: “All (men) have feet of clay!”
Jon
April 28th, 2011
12:29 pm
REALLY! – Who gives a rats arse?
ATLER (ramblin wreck)
April 28th, 2011
12:29 pm
GT Bob,
“Cam will have his work cut out for him and he will be running an offense that he is not accustomed to.”
That’s 95% of all rookie QBs coming into the NFL my friend. The NFL 1000 time harder then college football. Payton Manning struggled his first year in the league also……….. so now what? Oh by the way Manning’s a great guy. I met him in Destin one year. Great guy to be around.
JSS
April 28th, 2011
12:34 pm
Tossed Salad
April 28th, 2011
12:22 pm
“He’s as dumb as a box of rocks.”
And what was Joe Namath’s, Don Meredith’s, and Brett Favre’s, and Terry Bradshaw’s calling to MENSA? It’s f-o-o-t-b-a-l-l! The ability to translate repetitive processes in an opportunistic pattern better than your opponent!
Crapshoot
April 28th, 2011
12:34 pm
GTBob,
I agree. In spite of a few exceptions, the vast majority of successful QBs sit for a year or two. Unfortunately, if Cam is drafted by the Panthers, he will be thrown in the fire too soon. I also think that Tebow could use a little more seasoning behind Kyle Orton before he is thrown back in the fire.
Truth
April 28th, 2011
12:36 pm
I hope the Panthers draft Cam Newton. It will make them irrelevant for 5+ years
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April 28th, 2011
12:37 pm
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ATLER (ramblin wreck)
April 28th, 2011
12:39 pm
Re-post:
So lets get this straight, Brett Favre, he of pain killer addiction, alcoholism, and adultery is a Super Bowl winning highly revered quarterback. Cam Newton, because of his “character issues” will never amount to anything in the NFL. Ben Rothleisberger, the womanizing sexual assault artist, is a two time Super Bowl champ and considered a top tier QB in the NFL. However, because his dad wanted a cut of the money Auburn was going to make off of his son and because he bought a laptop he knew was stolen at the ripe age of 18, Cam Newton will never be successful in the NFL. Something doesn’t add up.
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Al Gore's Message Therapist
April 28th, 2011
12:40 pm
Schultz -
Ummmm, Cam’s NFL success holds about as much interest to people of intelligence as the hair spray Donald Trump wears to do his comb over.
Old time Dog
April 28th, 2011
12:41 pm
NFL wants black QB’s to succeed. Newton will receive more time and patience than T
FaceTheNation
April 28th, 2011
12:41 pm
Jeff, they both will be successful in the NFL. TimT will succeed because he has skills and will be given every opportunity to improve his perceived flaws.
CNewton will succeed because he has all the tools needed to be an NFL QB. I hope Carolina will pass on CNewton. I am a Falcon fan and we already have to face DBrees and JFreeman twice each year. Carolina, please don’t take Cam.
Jeff, not Schultz
April 28th, 2011
12:48 pm
Schultz — your base comment is completely flawed. Consider what you said:
“Newton: He has NFL-caliber talent. He has size, speed, strength. He enables a coach to expand the playbook because of his speed.”
WRONG ON SO MANY LEVELS!!! Ok, if he was just a linebacker who had to go blow up a ballcarrier, then size, speed, and strength would be fine. But he’s NOT. He’s supposed to be a leader and a decision maker. And Newton’s lack of intelligence will hurt him in this area.
How can a coach “expand the playbook” when Cam will struggle to just learn the BASIC playbook? This guy is not a rocket scientist. His college playbook was “Run play 36″ or “Cam off-tackle left” or “Cam off-tackle right.” He won’t be able to learn the verbiage and nuances of an NFL offense, not for another 5 years, anyway.
I have friends who work at Auburn…. they said Cam is a kid with an ego but that he’s not that bright. Neither are his parents. This is a kid who got into trouble at Florida, so his decision making is in question, and you can’t TELL me that all this smoke surrounding the “pay-for-play” scandal doesn’t have SOME merit.
Listen to the kid in interviews… he’s not that smart. Watch his interaction with Gruden on the ESPN special — he can’t recall a single play at Auburn. Now watch the great NFL quarterbacks like Manning, McNabb, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Vick, Rivers, Ryan, etc., and you will see a VAST difference.
Mark it down: Cam Newton will NOT be an impact quarterback in the NFL for AT LEAST FIVE YEARS, if ever. He is another Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell — a big, strong kid who can throw it a mile but can’t digest NFL offenses and defenses.
Carolina is making a mistake by picking Newton at No. 1, but it’s their future, so let ‘em do what they want.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 28th, 2011
12:49 pm
“And what was Joe Namath’s, Don Meredith’s, and Brett Favre’s, and Terry Bradshaw’s calling to MENSA? It’s f-o-o-t-b-a-l-l! The ability to translate repetitive processes in an opportunistic pattern better than your opponent!”
Haha. Real talk. The biggest myth in pro sports is that it takes some kind of extraordinary intelligence to play quarterback. And as long as ex-QBs like Ron Jaworski who have a vested interest in making their profession look difficult are the ones doing the analysis, the football-watching public will continue to be force-fed this myth.
Season Ticker Holder
April 28th, 2011
12:49 pm
Unlike Michael Vick, Cam Newton is willing to put in the practice and study to become a great QB. Cam has good work habits which will help him to excel in the NFL.
dawgfacedboy
April 28th, 2011
12:49 pm
Jeff- it doesn’t take a psychic to tell that Tebow won’t be much of a pro. That’s not necessarily a jab either. In our society we are never satisfied. It’s not enough that the kid was an amazing college football player. If he doesn’t succeed in the NFL most people will categorize him as a “flop” instead of an “amazing college football player”. It’s we haven’t learned that just because these guys were great in college it doesn’t mean that their game will translate to the next level.
Newton has a lot of work to do. He has more intangibles than Tebow but his game was largely based on his ability to run, thereby keeping the D honest at all times (just like Tebow). They both are going to have to prove they can throw without relying on running to be successful and I’m not sold that either can do that.
1eyedJack
April 28th, 2011
12:50 pm
If he goes to Carolina he will spend more time running for his life than running for yards. The NFL will render him one dimensional.
ATLER (ramblin wreck)
April 28th, 2011
12:51 pm
I am too a Falcons fan and that Josh Freeman scares the hell out of me. He will be a bigger thorn then Brees. Don’t get me wrong Brees is an awesome QB, but Freeman’s size is scary.
Bob
April 28th, 2011
12:51 pm
You are an idiot Schultz!!!!!!!
PhilBee
April 28th, 2011
12:53 pm
Listen-They are both Winners. They both have an unbelievable desire to get the job done. Cam does not have much experience, but he has been a winner every step of the way. Who else could come in to a new team in JC and lead them to a national title- then the very next year, get bumped up to the big guys and win them a National Title???? He could go into several NFL teams, start this year and make them winners as well.
Matt
April 28th, 2011
12:54 pm
The point I would like to make is that the Panthers are a really bad team. They have waaaayyyy more problems than just at QB. Draft him #1 and surround him with absolutely no help on either side of the ball??? They need to get some supporting cast in there to help next year’s #1 pick (they will still suck enough to get that pick next year) Andrew Luck.
Zack
April 28th, 2011
12:55 pm
Neither one of them will be anything other that an average QB in the NFL.
dcb
April 28th, 2011
12:55 pm
I’m a character guy – especially if as most above say, Newton and Tebows physical skills are about equal. Frankly, I think they’ll both prove in the long run to be around for a while. But get Tebow on a team that plays a team concept – and not a team with a Michael Vick from Atlanta-days mantra – and I think Tebow could be a Staubach, or Marino, or Eli Manning. But in my book, Newton – he’s a loose cannon and loose cannons end up marginal winners if winners at all.
Ted M
April 28th, 2011
12:56 pm
JaMarcus Russell is obese and grotesquely out of football shape. There is no comparison between him and Newton.
Zack
April 28th, 2011
12:57 pm
What will set them apart in the NFL is that one will be in trouble with either the law or the NFL and the other will not. Who do you think will????
ATLER (ramblin wreck)
April 28th, 2011
1:02 pm
Dumb statement Zack. What’s your purpose on here anyway???!!!!!……………..
Marc
April 28th, 2011
1:03 pm
I think John Elway is the perfect person to determine the potential of Tebow. He had many doubters before he started, and throughout his NFL career. I will respect his decisions but I do love the fire Tebow has returned to my Broncos.
Gary
April 28th, 2011
1:08 pm
Newton is self centered, lazy, not a leader, not that bright, inexperienced, and will go up against much better and faster competition in the NFL. His speed will not help him in the NFL. He will not be able to save every broken third and 13 with a run for a first down. He lacks the charater to succeed. He will not be playing in the NFL in four years. Two teams will try him. Both will dump him. Tebow’s work ethic will buy him a few years, but I don’t think he will make it very long either.