Braves suddenly getting some national love over Phillies
Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman are two of the reasons why many believe the Braves will upset Philadelphia and win the National League East Division this season. (Jason Getz/AJC)
Chipper Jones made an interesting point the other day when asked about the possibility of the Braves winning the National League East over Philadelphia this season: “We’re going to have to play more consistently against teams not named Philly. Philly beats up on teams they should beat up on.”
The Braves don’t. At least they didn’t last season. They went 19-17 against Washington and Florida last season (teams that finished a combined 149-175). The Phillies were 25-11 against the Nationals and Marlins.
Loading ...That’s a difference of six games. The difference in the standings last season: six games.
The Braves open the season Thursday at Washington. I’m on record as believing they have the better team than Philadelphia (given injuries to the Phillies’ Chase Utley and Brad Lidge and the loss of Jayson Werth) and they will win the East Division.
I figured that pick was going out on a limb. Turns out that it’s not such a longshot after all. Several media outlets suddenly seem to have turned the Braves into a fashionable pick.
Here’s a short dance around the internet:
– Sports Illustrated picks the Braves over Philly. Excerpts from Jon Heyman’s analysis:
It’ll be considered an upset by all, but their starting pitching is terrific by any standard except for Philadelphia’s, they have not one but two decent closing options in Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, and while there are defensive questions, at least at second (Dan Uggla) and third (Chipper Jones), Jones looks like he’s primed for a big finish, Brian McCann is in the best shape of his career and [Freddie] Freeman and Jason Heyward might both turn out to be megastars. … The Phillies have that fantastic pitching, good enough to justify their tag as World Series favorites. But their spring was an unmitigated disaster. Chase Utley is out indefinitely, Brad Lidge is hurting and so is Placido Polanco.
– Fox Sports picks the Braves over Philly. Excerpts from long time baseball writer Tracy Ringolsby:
It would be a made-for-TV season if Gonzalez rallies the Braves to a division title in his first year on the job. Give Atlanta the edge in the NL East. [Freeman and Heyward] are the foundation for the Braves future, ready to make an impact now. The old man, third baseman Chipper Jones, is returning for another year and showed no problems from the torn ACL that cut short his 2010 season. Major offseason addition Dan Uggla will provide some life to the offense, but defense is a question. The rotation won’t get the plaudits of the Phillies, but it’s a quality quintet with the youthful arms of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens. … Center fielder Nate McLouth has been a major disappointment. This spring, however, he has looked like the offensive catalyst the Braves need to have a contending lineup.
– ESPN has a panel of 45 making predictions. Of those 29 pick Philadelphia to win the East, 16 tab the Braves. Buster Olney, ESPN’s premier national writer, picks the Braves, as he hinted a few weeks ago when we spoke in Florida. Of the other picks, 18 predict the Braves to reach as a wild card, 11 say they will miss the postseason, 12 tab them to win the pennant and two predict they’ll win the World Series. Here’s ESPN’s video preview of the East.
– CBS Sports has a panel of eight experts, six going with the Phillies and two going with the Braves. Four project the Braves to win the pennant and one writer, Danny Knobler, writes that the Braves will win the World Series. (As a side note, Danny and I both are products of Ms. Fontes’ journalism class at University High School in West Los Angeles. But I don’t believe that had anything to do with his pick.)
– The Sporting News picks the Phillies to win the East and go all the way to the World Series, where they’ll lost to Boston. They say the Braves will miss the playoffs all together. Frank Wren just canceled his subscription. The Sporting News gives the West to Colorado and the wild card to San Francisco. An excerpt:
This will be a battle between the Giants and Atlanta Braves, but another of the majors’ best rotations will be the deciding factor. Despite also having a deep rotation, the Braves have too many defensive questions and aren’t very deep. San Francisco has offensive issues of its own, but its offense won’t run into the Phillies’ arms as often as Atlanta’s will
– Yahoo! Sports has three baseball writers making predictions. Two went with the Braves in the East, one with the Phillies. Tim Brown places the Braves fourth in his overall power rankings, behind Boston, San Francisco and the New York Yankees, and one spot ahead of Philadelphia.
I bet you didn't know Mr. R. gave financial advice.
There are a zillion more previews to be found. But I figure if you click-and-read the links, that should more than enough to fill your free time before Thursday’s first pitch at 1:05 p.m.
Oh wait. One more thing. Here are my 100-percent guaranteed predictions, if my name isn’t Rumpelstiltskin.
AMERICAN LEAGUE: Boston (East), Minnesota (Central), Oakland (West), Detroit (wild card).
NATIONAL LEAGUE: Atlanta (East), Cincinnati (Central), San Francisco (West), Philadelphia (wild card).
A.L. CHAMPION: Boston.
N.L. CHAMPION: Atlanta.
WORLD SERIES: Boston. (Sorry.)
Your turn. Let’s hear your prediction (and remember: It’s going on your permanent record.) Also have a poll up.
By Jeff Schultz
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80 comments Add your comment
Question
March 31st, 2011
9:45 am
West Los Angeles? Isn’t that the ocean??
10 to 1 lead after 3
March 31st, 2011
9:47 am
New manager, new hope.
D Man
March 31st, 2011
9:54 am
Evanwins – “Also, last year you were virtually untouched by injuries and odds are you won’t escape that this year. One more thing: how many “magic” finishes for wins did you have last year? A lot. Can you really depend on that portion of luck again? Sorry guys, not this year.”
WRONG – the Braves were in first when we got a bunch of injuries to key players. Chipper, Prado was leading the NL in hits, average, etc., one of our starting pitchers. Get your facts straight before you come on this blog. BRAVES WIN the EAST…
ga gator
March 31st, 2011
10:05 am
I have read where Chipper has been mentoring Jason Heyward; I hope Jason does’nt start missing 20-25 games a year for a hang-nail.
Larry
March 31st, 2011
10:21 am
ga gator,
…or the 60 day Disabled List for a Broken Ear Lobe.
LOL!
Opening Day
March 31st, 2011
10:27 am
Evanwins – “Also, last year you were virtually untouched by injuries and odds are you won’t escape that this year. One more thing: how many “magic” finishes for wins did you have last year? A lot. Can you really depend on that portion of luck again? Sorry guys, not this year.”
Not sure where to start.
1) You must not have seen our lineup towards the end of the season.
****Have you not heard of Brooks Conrad???!?!?!??
2) Though it doesn’t count….we just had a walk of win two nights ago
Mark (another one)
March 31st, 2011
11:49 am
Another quality Southern California sports writer. I should have known.
I had the fun of covering Tarkanian and Olson at CSULB and LBCC in the early 70’s. The competition for writing jobs was fierce, and I never could pass the grammar tests. Anyway, it was fun covering these two as a stringer paid by the inch. They were different in so many ways but they both won.
My two favorite sports writters back then were Jim Murray and Hank Hollingworth (?) (Times and the Press Telegram). I have always thought your writing reminded me of these two. Keep up the good work.
phil
March 31st, 2011
12:30 pm
Why the obsession in this state with what national media thinks? When its UGA, people whine and cry about how we don’t get any love….who cares!!! Besides, we don’t deserve any….
As for the braves, again, who cares….let’s go take care of business on the field and win the damn thing and quite worrying or caring what Buster and Mike Golic and whomever else think….as if that will have some bearing on the outcome…
I wouldn’t pick us either with the questionable defense we have, along with potential trouble in center, 3B, catcher, 1B and RF….nevermind the wildcard at 2B and in LF….ooops, forgot SS and how questionable it is….a lot has to go right this year for us to even contend….;et’s all calm down and actually go win some games….
Chuck M
March 31st, 2011
12:30 pm
Braves win the series in 7 over Boston GO BRAVES!
Skeezix
March 31st, 2011
12:39 pm
As one who is bored by the NBA regular season and no longer has a stake in the NCAA tourney–can’t wait for the MLB season to start. While I still have concerns about McLouth’s offense, I really think the Braves are primed for a speacial year. If we get no production from CF I expect FW to remedy that problem.
Re: the NCAA final four. Just can’t get into it much. We have two of the biggest cheaters going at each other (Calhoun and Calipari) and then there’s those two dinky schools. I’m just hoping one of the little guys wins it over whichever one of the ‘cheaters’ gets to the final game.
Daniel
March 31st, 2011
12:46 pm
Will the game be brodcast on rock100.5?
Ted M
March 31st, 2011
1:02 pm
National League:
East: Braves
Central: Reds
West: Giants
Wild Card: Rockies
American League
East: Red Sox
Central: Twins
West: Rangers
Wild Card: Yankees
The NL East is going to be the best division. Even the Nats & Mets are gonna be pretty good. Everybody is gonna be beatin’ each other up. That’s why I didn’t take the Phillies for WC
BravePrediction
March 31st, 2011
1:12 pm
Braves win East, Yankees win Wild Card………….Braves over Yankees in WS (6 games).
phil
March 31st, 2011
1:25 pm
simple really…the Braves never hit great pitching in the postseason….if we play the phils, we’re toast….it’s as simple as that…
You say I’m nuts? Did we or did we not win the deciding game in ‘95 1-0? That’s right, 1-0….if not for Glavine, we probably lose that series in 7 too….
bfred
March 31st, 2011
2:58 pm
Fro those talking about historical playoff performance…those guys are gone. Chipper is the only long-term Brave left out of that group and it really isn’t his team anymore. Our young guys seem like professionals but not to the point they appear to be on valium. There is more energy to this club and a manager who focuses more on the fundamentals than his predecessor. The margin for error in the post-seaseon is so narrow that such an apporach can make a big difference. When it was the same clubhouse year after year I would have agreed but that is just not the case anymore.
guest
March 31st, 2011
4:02 pm
“1-15…think about this! You have to really be bad at postseason, in-game, situational managing to pull this off!”
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yep, because there is absolutely no other way to lose in the postseason except for mis-management by the head coach . . . right.
Lou Piniella – ended his seasons 1 – 6
Tony LaRussa – ended his seasons 2 – 12
Jim Leyland – ended his seasons 1 – 5
Earl Weaver – ended his seasons 1 – 5
Dusty Baker – ended his seasons 0 – 5
Whitey Herzog – ended his seasons 1 – 5
Bruce Bochy – ended his seasons 1 – 4
Billy Martin – ended his seasons 1 – 5
Mike Hargrove – ended his seasons 0 – 5
Even the great Joe Torre only had a 4 – 12 record in his final game of the season.
Just because the record is bad does not mean that the blame falls entirely on the head coach. Players must execute. Sometimes there is bad luck. There are so many factors that can affect the outcome of a season, series or game.
I’m not even a big fan of Bobby Cox (I was ready for a change a few years ago), but you have to be ignorant to say that the reason the Braves didn’t win more was ONLY due to his mis-management of games in the post season.
Joe Tess Fish House
March 31st, 2011
4:08 pm
HAHAHAHAHA…..Everone is dum if they thing the Braves have a chance. They hire a loosing managar with a loosing record.
Brendan
March 31st, 2011
4:15 pm
Jeff Schultz, here is my submission, for chiseling onto my permanent record.
AMERICAN LEAGUE: Boston (East), Minnesota (Central), Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (West), NY Yankees (wild card).
NATIONAL LEAGUE: Philadelphia (East), St. Louis (Central), San Francisco (West), Atlanta (wild card).
A.L. CHAMPION: Boston.
N.L. CHAMPION: Philadelphia.
WORLD SERIES: Philadelphia Phillies. Arguably, this is Philadelphia’s best team ever, though … they FAILED to address what they needed in this offseason, which wasn’t pitching, it was HITTING! Go ahead, ask any Phillies fan if they thought pitching was the reason they didn’t win the World Series last year. Still, I thought the Phillies were good enough to be WS champions last year, and nothing has really changed for me, this year. If it’s the Red Sox year again, I guess I can live with that. Anyone but the Yankees, is my motto.
Joe Tess Fish House
March 31st, 2011
4:26 pm
Did chipper break his hip today? HAHAHAHA
Larry
March 31st, 2011
6:49 pm
guest,
Talk about spitting in the wind…LOL!
Nearly all of your “selective” group of managers had a better % than Cox who blue 15 total chances! LOL
Did you, Goober, deliberately exclude Cito Gaston’s and Terry Francona’s TWO WS Championships?
You calling others ignorant…LOL!
TGT
March 31st, 2011
8:26 pm
More love for the Braves:
http://www.realclearsports.com/articles/2011/03/31/12_predictions_for_2011_season_97264.html
guest
April 1st, 2011
4:26 am
Larry, if you believe that Bobby Cox is the sole reason that the Braves did not win more World Series titles, then, yes, I am calling you ignorant.
The list was a brief check of some names I thought everyone might have heard of (they are in the top 40 of all time wins by managers). Gaston and Francona were not on that list.
The simple point for you is that very good/great managers can and do often have a low success rate when it comes to winning their final game. Bobby Cox is no different. Again, I’m not arguing that he’s great (I thought he should have been gone a few years ago); but, to say that he is the sole reason for the Braves finishing 1 – 15 in their final games of the postseason is ignoring reality. There are too many variables that affect the outcome of games in order to place all of the blame on Bobby Cox.
Eric C.
April 1st, 2011
6:29 am
Braves over the Twins…Braves all the way
Don
April 1st, 2011
10:01 am
Larry, you must be joking – how could anyone be critical of a future hall of fame manager who writers and most fans continue to praise. After all his percentage is 93.75%.
WOOPS – that is his PERCENTAGE OF FAILURE (93.75% of the time) in Post Season Opportunities compared to World Series Championships.
And that with one of the BEST PITCHING STAFFS IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME along with (for the most part) a very good supporting cast.
ABSOLUTELY UNBELIEVABLE – FAILDED 93.75% OF THE TIME – in converting Post Season Opportunities into WS Championships. Yet so many defend him as a good manager.
guest
April 2nd, 2011
1:17 am
Good reading comprehension you have there, Don. I only said that it is ignorant to place ALL the blame on Cox for the Braves’ post season failures. Criticism is perfectly acceptable (I’ve done it myself many times when I disagreed with a decision made during a game – some worked while others didn’t).
Again, to be completely clear, I said it shows an ignorance of baseball (or team sports in general) to place the ENTIRE blame of failure on the manager/head coach. It’s pretty simple really; it’s a team sport where too many factors affect the outcome of the game to place all the blame on any one person/player.
guest
April 2nd, 2011
2:25 am
To put things in a slightly different way, let’s look at some other team game sports. I think that most people would agree that Lenny Wilkens (1-20), George Karl (0-16), Don Shula (2-17) and Tom Landry (2-16) were/are all good to great coaches. Looking at their final game of the season shows that one can be a good/great coach despite how many actual championships they win. There are too many things that are out of the control of the head coach/manager for ALL of the blame to fall on the head coach/manager. Criticism for decisions that backfire or don’t make sense in the normal thought process of a game is absolutely fine with me; but, to say that ALL of the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the head coach/manager is ridiculous and only shows ignorance of the game.
benchwarmer
April 2nd, 2011
9:37 am
That yahoo who said the Brave’s aren’t deep must not have watched any spring training. If anything I think the Braves have a better bench this year than last and have some good call ups waitng in the minors if needed. Baseball pundits historically are inept at getting it wrong. We fans however are nearly always right!
benchwarmer
April 2nd, 2011
9:39 am
poor sentence. should be I guess, inept at getting it right.
benchwarmer
April 2nd, 2011
9:41 am
Teams do lose games. I have to agree however that Mr Cox for all his great abilities was less than stellar in the post season.
fred
April 3rd, 2011
9:45 am
come on braves fans, you do this to yourself every year. Just enjoy your season and sit back and watch the other guys play in Oct!!!