ESPN’s Buster Olney: Braves may beat out Phillies in East
ESPN's Buster Olney believes the Braves may have a reason to give high-fives at the end of the season in the East.
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — While this comes with no guarantees, one of the nation’s preeminent baseball writers says he is “leaning towards” picking the Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies to win the National League East Division.
I chatted with ESPN’s Buster Olney at Braves camp this morning and he went through a list of reasons why he is considering picking the Braves, despite the fact the Phillies have assembled one of the greatest starting rotations in major league history (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt).
But before passing along those reasons, this might take a little shine off of Olney’s possible prediction. As he and I were speaking, Braves general manager Frank Wren walked up. Then came this exchange.
Olney: “I might be the only national person who picks you guys in the
Olney: Concerns in Philly.
East.”
Wren: “Really? Wow. What’s your record?”
Olney: “I picked the Rockies to win the World Series last year.”
Wren: “Oh, great.”
Olney: “Yeah, I have no credibility.”
Actually, he does. Most consider Olney the best national baseball writer in the business. Few do their homework like him. Here’s Olney’s breakdown of the race between the Braves and Phillies:
♦ “The [Phillies'] injuries and the lack of balance [in the heavily left-handed] lineup are real concerns. They won’t see right-handed pitching after the fifth or sixth inning this year. The starting pitching is obviously unbelievable, but I think these guys [Braves] are deeper than what they’re given credit for and if Derek Lowe can pitch like he did down the stretch, their pitching certainly is good enough to match up. If [Craig] Kimbrel and [Jonny] Venters can fill the back end of the bullpen, this is a real good team. The every day lineup is certainly better than what the Phillies have because of the concerns they have. Right now, they’re talking about [outfielder] Ben Francisco being the No. 5 hitter in that lineup [to replace the departed Jayson Werth] and that’s probably a tall order for him. They had 170 games lost to injuries last year in the infield. Jimmy Rollins’ OPS has gone down the last three years, since he won the MVP. [Chase] Utley’s OPS has dropped each of the last two years. [Ryan] Howard last year, because of the lack of depth in their lineup, saw a lot off-speed stuff away and it really seemed to affect them. [Placido] Polanco is 37 years old now and he had elbow trouble last year. They’re an older team. The question is, how do those injuries manifest themselves and do they have the depth to make up for it?”
So, are you convinced?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
Previous posts from Braves’ camp
– Braves’ Lee Elia knows hitting (and what not to say anymore)
– Chipper Jones gets hit in return and takes a swing at critics
– Braves camp: Chipper’s return, Uggla’s debut, Cox’s spring ejection
– Braves hoping to recreate chemistry from 2010 season
– So what does Freddie Freeman (3 doubles) do for an encore?
– Digi-Blog goes to Braves’ spring training at Disney (they charge, I don’t)
♦
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152 comments Add your comment
joel marable
March 1st, 2011
1:49 pm
Dont think 4 1min that the braves young bullpen will hold up all yr. there will b problems closing games 4 true. nat MCLOUTH wonT hit 240. infield defense will b shaky. no speed. we will have 2 string 2gether alot of hits at one time to get most of the runs. 2many questions and not enough answers.3rd place. no wild card this yr. 4true.needs= center fielder,EXPERIENCE closer, and set up man then maybe. but we wont make any moves of course.BACK UP INFIELDERS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE ALSO.
Mitchell
March 1st, 2011
1:49 pm
I just wonder if they have the same magic touch in 2011…
To win the division, that is.
Not that they won it last year or course.
I miss the days of being six games under .500 in mid-June and still having no doubt that they would win the division.
But I guess the competition wasn’t really up to the challenge back in ‘04 and 5 in retrospect.
BravesFan
March 1st, 2011
1:57 pm
Enter your comments here
papadawg
March 1st, 2011
2:01 pm
They were close last year until the injury bug bit and the bats went south but I don’t know if the new additions will really put us over the hump.
BravesFan
March 1st, 2011
2:01 pm
Amazing to read this weekend that Bobby didn’t have the team runs sprints after practice, nor do extra work on fundamentals in ST.
No wonder he was called the “ultimate players’ manager.”
LostCause
March 1st, 2011
2:03 pm
Been saying this all winter long … Go Braves!
BobDawg
March 1st, 2011
2:04 pm
It is spring training and folks are on some strong stuff down there… Both teams have to navigate the injuries this year and I’m curious to see our “defense” during the regular season… Lots of bandaids but we are getting younger…That Phils pitching just looks dominant right now on paper.
Joe Tess Fish House
March 1st, 2011
2:06 pm
Who care about my speling? The point is the Braves hired the wrong guy 4 manger. Look it up he has a loosing record.
Tron5000
March 1st, 2011
2:06 pm
I shall enter this season cautiously optimistic about the Braves’ NL East chances. I’ve been burned one too many times for me to go out proclaiming them the division winner out of the gate. At least I learn from my mistakes.
Are we there yet?
March 1st, 2011
2:07 pm
Not quite there yet. The Braves have assembled a very talented group and they may have the best team chemistry in MLB. Unfortunately, however, the Phillies would have to have a collapse of monumental proportion to lose their grip on the NL East. Atlanta should secure a wildcard berth again in 2011 but will need help to win the division.
John
March 1st, 2011
2:07 pm
OMG – who in their right mind thinks McOut will “return to form” — the guy won’t hit .230 this year and will either be in AAA or out of baseball by the end of the year. If I see one more person think McOut is going to “return to form” I’m going to scream. What has he ever done as a Brave to think he’s decent??
Blackberry Cobbler
March 1st, 2011
2:09 pm
Any pitching rotation scenario that depends on D-Lowe being good, is already in trouble.
He’s too inconsistent and most of the time is lucky to get past the 5th inning.
Lost in Kudzu
March 1st, 2011
2:12 pm
More Kool-Aid for the dreamers on this blog !
They think Chipper & McLouth are gonna lead the way.
Dream On !
Phillistein
March 1st, 2011
2:15 pm
Am I convinced?
Nope
But then, you’d expect me to say that.
What;s the age old formula for making the post season?
Split with the good team and beat the living crap out of the bad teams.
Over the past few years the Phillies have been an exceptionally good road team. The Braves? Not so much. Therefore, winning on the road against sub-500 teams is a key to sucess. Why were the Braves so bad last year? And have they gotten better?
The Braves CAN win the division IF:
* All those young arms hold up (For both SP and relievers.)
* Phillies age catches up with them and theirtop position position lose playing time or play hurt all year.
The good news for both the Braves and the Phillies is that the rest of the division shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
Lotta IFS
puppydawg
March 1st, 2011
2:16 pm
One thing that would definitely help the Braves would be to play a little more “small ball”. I hope Fredi believes in “get ‘em on, get ‘em over, get ‘em in.” Love Bobby but he relied too much on the big inning.
AthensBrave
March 1st, 2011
2:16 pm
I really hope we can match up with the Phils. I think we do the same thing we did last year with winning the Wild Card.
Not that it's germane to the topic, but...
March 1st, 2011
2:27 pm
…if the planet ever needs an enema, Philadelphia is where they’ll stick it in.
Bobby Cox
March 1st, 2011
2:33 pm
Gee, Skip. I’m optimistic about these kids. McLouth & Schafer are tearing it up in batting practice. Can’t wait to see them in our simulated games. Even Chip is tearing the cover off the ball. Time for another drink…
idot
March 1st, 2011
2:40 pm
The Phillies are not invincible.
Are Phillies better on paper? The game isn’t played on paper. It’s played on the grass and clay.
Got to see how the Brave’s bullpen developes, looked like the Phillies needed to improve their’s, from last season’s.
I believe that the Braves CAN win the East, even if both teams stay healthy.
But, I think that the NL East title will be decided, by which of the two teams stays the healthiest, just like last year.
And thats all I have to say about that.
idot
March 1st, 2011
2:42 pm
Oh yeah, GO BRAVES!!!!!
Cajun Crap Talker
March 1st, 2011
2:44 pm
Thing is, the Braves have someone new every year that comes (almost) out of nowhere. We don’t know that’s going to be this year . . .
Scott Case
March 1st, 2011
2:45 pm
“..one of the best rotations in Major League history?” Come on Jeff. Cole Hamels is nothing, and Oswalt – although solid still – ain’t llike he was 10 years ago. They’re good, but I agree; if D-Lowe can keep his roll, we match up quite well with these bozos.
If only the Braves could learn to pitch AROUND Ryan Howard for a change…
idot
March 1st, 2011
2:46 pm
I believe, that McLouth and Shafer are going to do big things for the Braves, this season.
what of it?
March 1st, 2011
2:52 pm
Olney also picked Andruw Jones as the most overrated player of all time which goes a long way to discredit his “expert” status.
Olney notwithstanding, Braves can take the East.
aburtch
March 1st, 2011
2:54 pm
I’m convinced!
Crip
March 1st, 2011
2:59 pm
Anything is possible now that booby isn’t the manager.
O'flarity's water bottle
March 1st, 2011
3:09 pm
Whoever thinks that the phils are going to do something, needs spme things into perspective. The braves had the same thing, rotation with little offense.
ATL FAN
March 1st, 2011
3:15 pm
Only if Chipper gets well FAST
Braves need McLouth or Schafer to end looniness in center | Jeff Schultz
March 1st, 2011
3:24 pm
[...] – ESPN’s Buster Olney: Braves may beat out Phillies in East [...]
Werth Gone is a big problem
March 1st, 2011
3:27 pm
I really think you Philly fans are playing down the loss of Werth. No one in your lineup can protect Howard like Werth did. Your right fielder is an old man who had to stop using HGH and comparing your catcher’s offensive abilities to ours is a joke. Ruiz had a career offensive year last year where he had 53 RBI’s, 8 HR’s and a .302 avg (about 50 points higher than his average and that’s being generous). Name another player in your lineup that hit’s for power like Howard does (btw Utley hits for power but there is no way they bat him behind Howard). Howard is not a 50HR guy without protection and you will see his numbers drop this year.
BTW To say that adding Lee and losing Werth makes the Phillies as good if not better than they were last year is a ridiculous argument. Lee is a pitcher not a right fielder or run producer.
I’m not saying the Braves are going to outright take the NL East but it’s way closer than it was last year. I think it’s going to be a real good race and whatever team has less injuries will probably end up being the winner end of story.
PreyDawg
March 1st, 2011
3:27 pm
kerryB mentioned earlier, “If McClouth returns to form”. That is a huge if. What indication do we have that he has any form to return to. The man is a total liability.
Matt the Brave
March 1st, 2011
3:31 pm
IF (and that’s all caps folks) we stay healthy the entire year, we’ve got a shot. I mean, we can lose one or two guys, but we can’t fall apart like we did last year. I think that Freddi will do a better job than Bobby did in that aspect. Also, got to see what our bullpen does. If we pitch like last year, we’ll be fine. A lot will be decided in those 18 games between each team in the East.
Batterup
March 1st, 2011
3:42 pm
All I have say about the writer’s assertion that the Braves just might win the East is this:
Plug a light into an 800volt outlet, then remove the bulb. In its place wet your index finger and place it in the bulb’s place. ZZZZZAAAAPPPPP! That’s what happens to the brain and causes journalists to write idiotic articles (are you listening Shultzie?).
Phillisux
March 1st, 2011
3:48 pm
The Phillies have to be considered the favorites to win the NL East, but the Braves are not far behind. I still think $25 million was way too much for Lee, who is good to very good (one great season with Cleveland) but far from Roy Halladay (I’d go with Roy Oswalt as the Phils number 2 starter, with Lee third, Hamels at number 4). Joe Blanton is like Shemp of the 3 Stooges – he’s a part of the Phil’s rotation in name only as a distant number 5 starter. Adding Uggla will have a far greater positive impact on the Braves in 2011 than the addition of Lee will have on The Phils. I agree with Phillistein (2:15 PM post) that both teams have more than a few “Ifs” going into 2011. Can’t wait for the regular season to start!
JC N Germany
March 1st, 2011
3:49 pm
Wow food for thought!… my ywo cents say that the Bravos need to add a power bat to the outfield mid season when Chipper gets tired or even worse hurt. this will allow Martin to shift to 3rd and replinish Chipper for the Playoff push… this maybe a case of wishful thinking but I feel both Nate and Jordan will have strong springs and make the other all the better during the season. my predition is 101 wins this year or more.
JC N Germany
March 1st, 2011
3:49 pm
Wow food for thought!… my ywo cents say that the Bravos need to add a power bat to the outfield mid season when Chipper gets tired or even worse hurt. this will allow Martin to shift to 3rd and replinish Chipper for the Playoff push… this maybe a case of wishful thinking but I feel both Nate and Jordan will have strong springs and make the other all the better during the season. my predition is 101 wins this year or more.
Can the 2011 Braves surprise in the NL East? « Ace of Braves
March 1st, 2011
3:55 pm
[...] rotation, the club has many other questions that make them appear to be vulnerable. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests the Phils never addressed their biggest offseason need — a right-handed power bat to [...]
Mark
March 1st, 2011
4:08 pm
yea….. and Buster Olney also predicted Charlie Sheen would be back on Two and a Half Men by the first week of March……. Not gonna happen Braves fans
Phillisux
March 1st, 2011
4:14 pm
Mark: I don’t care if Charlie Sheen is back on “Two and a Half Men” by the first week of March, but thanks for your concern nonetheless.
Buster Olney
March 1st, 2011
4:25 pm
I predict Charlie Sheen will “score” more than McLouth this season .
You can take it to the bank !
tdmorgan
March 1st, 2011
4:40 pm
i agree that we can talk all we would like, but until the games are played, its just talk. With that said, the Braves do have a chance to win the division because the Phillies best players bat left handed…meaning that we people can throw specialists late in games. Why do you think we went and got Sherrill? The Phillies starters should keep them more than competitive most games and give them plenty of chances to win. The Braves have arguably one of the better rotations top to bottom in the NL still. If Lowe continues to pitch the way he had at the end of last year that will be a huge help. If Hudson, who will be in his 2nd full year back from TJ surgery, can hold up the full year that will be another boost. If JJ can pitch the way he had his first 2 years then will be a huge boost. If Hanson continues his improvement then that will be a huge boost. Our offense has already improved with Uggla. Obviously until the games are played everything is an IF, we will start to find out if those IFs will happen soon enough.
dean
March 1st, 2011
4:48 pm
Philliestein @ 2:15 asks: “Why were the Braves so bad last year?”
Winning 91 games, I wouldn’t say the Braves were “bad”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the WS champs won 92 games.
Trainwreck
March 1st, 2011
4:52 pm
all I know is the NL seems to be deeper than last year and a wild-card will just as tough as winning the division… IMO
Ron Hyatt
March 1st, 2011
6:55 pm
Not gonna happen when Chumper has his annual steroid related injury at the worst possible time.
Jamie
March 1st, 2011
7:59 pm
I have a really good feeling about this year! With the guts this team showed last year and the freshness of a new manager, don’t be shocked if ATL takes care of business!
Hoss10
March 1st, 2011
8:32 pm
Not to toot my own horn or anything, but Olney’s reasons are the exact ones I’ve made to people in my argument of the Braves having a realistic chance of winning the East over the Phillies this year. Of course, I’d rather concede the division, win the wild card, and beat them in the playoffs on the way to the World Series crown!
BravesFanForever
March 1st, 2011
8:59 pm
The real key to this whole thing is that the Phillies have the ability to buy their way out of their problems. No, they don’t have as much room as before with those huge contracts but 1-2 decent players could put them over the top if they match the Braves by the trade deadline. They could make up for some key injuries which I expect to happen.
The Braves are not as good on paper right now because there are a lot of question marks. We’ll see once the season starts if the are the real thing. They could either be really good and possible World Series contenders or they can be merely average especially if CF ends up a black hole, Freddie Freeman doesn’t live up to his billing, and/or someone like Brian McCann goes down with a season ending injury.
All I can say is: GO BRAVES!!
Name
March 1st, 2011
11:06 pm
“Greatest rotation ever” what a crock of poop! Yeah they got two aces at the top of their rotation and that’s if cliff lees arm holds up from his injury proneness. Other than that they are very beatable the other three days.
Suenah Martis
March 2nd, 2011
3:38 am
The Braves have starting pitching wise more dept. If Clif Lee or Oswalt or both go down for a few weeks. We certainly have a chance. But our defense has to imrpove.
Chop It Up All-Star
March 2nd, 2011
8:03 am
The Phillies are the champs and until someone knocks them off, they have to be favorite, but I love this Braves team as currently constructed, and if those “question marks” specifically in CF and the Closer role pan out, I think the Braves will be right where they want to be come October.