ESPN’s Buster Olney: Braves may beat out Phillies in East
ESPN's Buster Olney believes the Braves may have a reason to give high-fives at the end of the season in the East.
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — While this comes with no guarantees, one of the nation’s preeminent baseball writers says he is “leaning towards” picking the Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies to win the National League East Division.
I chatted with ESPN’s Buster Olney at Braves camp this morning and he went through a list of reasons why he is considering picking the Braves, despite the fact the Phillies have assembled one of the greatest starting rotations in major league history (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt).
But before passing along those reasons, this might take a little shine off of Olney’s possible prediction. As he and I were speaking, Braves general manager Frank Wren walked up. Then came this exchange.
Olney: “I might be the only national person who picks you guys in the
Olney: Concerns in Philly.
East.”
Wren: “Really? Wow. What’s your record?”
Olney: “I picked the Rockies to win the World Series last year.”
Wren: “Oh, great.”
Olney: “Yeah, I have no credibility.”
Actually, he does. Most consider Olney the best national baseball writer in the business. Few do their homework like him. Here’s Olney’s breakdown of the race between the Braves and Phillies:
♦ “The [Phillies'] injuries and the lack of balance [in the heavily left-handed] lineup are real concerns. They won’t see right-handed pitching after the fifth or sixth inning this year. The starting pitching is obviously unbelievable, but I think these guys [Braves] are deeper than what they’re given credit for and if Derek Lowe can pitch like he did down the stretch, their pitching certainly is good enough to match up. If [Craig] Kimbrel and [Jonny] Venters can fill the back end of the bullpen, this is a real good team. The every day lineup is certainly better than what the Phillies have because of the concerns they have. Right now, they’re talking about [outfielder] Ben Francisco being the No. 5 hitter in that lineup [to replace the departed Jayson Werth] and that’s probably a tall order for him. They had 170 games lost to injuries last year in the infield. Jimmy Rollins’ OPS has gone down the last three years, since he won the MVP. [Chase] Utley’s OPS has dropped each of the last two years. [Ryan] Howard last year, because of the lack of depth in their lineup, saw a lot off-speed stuff away and it really seemed to affect them. [Placido] Polanco is 37 years old now and he had elbow trouble last year. They’re an older team. The question is, how do those injuries manifest themselves and do they have the depth to make up for it?”
So, are you convinced?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
Previous posts from Braves’ camp
– Braves’ Lee Elia knows hitting (and what not to say anymore)
– Chipper Jones gets hit in return and takes a swing at critics
– Braves camp: Chipper’s return, Uggla’s debut, Cox’s spring ejection
– Braves hoping to recreate chemistry from 2010 season
– So what does Freddie Freeman (3 doubles) do for an encore?
– Digi-Blog goes to Braves’ spring training at Disney (they charge, I don’t)
♦
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152 comments Add your comment
Zing
March 1st, 2011
11:50 am
IF Chipper plays at least 120 games and hits well, IF Lowe pitches like he did in September, IF Jurrjens returns to 2009 form… yes. Otherwise– no.
Stuart
March 1st, 2011
11:53 am
“As he and I were speaks”…?
Thomas
March 1st, 2011
11:55 am
Dan Uggla will, if he stays healthy, play a key role in this years success or failure. It’s wait and see on Freddy Freeman whether he can make a rookie impact this year? These guys are key to power in the lineup assuming they will outperform the expectations. JUST SAYING! GO BRAVES!
Disbott 3000
March 1st, 2011
11:56 am
I like the way he thinks.
WS here we come
March 1st, 2011
12:06 pm
Who cares about the east, they won 14 and won one WS, Ill take the wild care and the series! yeah c’mon
john in PA
March 1st, 2011
12:06 pm
@Joshua
No arguement with you concerning NL team batting rankings. I was, however, refering to MLB overall (2010 – 14th BA; 13th R; 18th SLG) just as I was referring to our pitching in MLB overall.
Your logical follow-up comment would be that you/I/we should only be concerned with how we stack up in the NL, and I would not argue with you on that point, but my point of reference for my comment was MLB overall. So, to answer your question, no I dont see a regression, but not an improvement, either. Likely still be middle of the pack, MLB, and top third, NL.
COULD be MUCH better, if, if, if….(see: Mclouth, Chipper, Freeman, AGon)
Geaux Tigers
March 1st, 2011
12:13 pm
Fish Bisch,
I am a huge Chipper fan and hope he comes back strong this year. But I really don’t see him playing 140 games, or close to it. I am hoping he plays around 120 and I will be happy.
JDA
March 1st, 2011
12:21 pm
…and then Olney went out to dinner with Charlie Sheen to reestablish his high.
Bobby Walden
March 1st, 2011
12:24 pm
Only pimps, homers and idiots pick the Braves. That bunch could win only ONE World Series despite winning the division a dozen times. They didn’t call them the Atlanta Bills for nothing. One improvement, however, was getting rid of that drunken wife-beater.
Kentavo
March 1st, 2011
12:29 pm
Braves offense will be better than last year; starting pitching potentially better if healthy; defense still a concern, and I think the big drop-off is the bullpen.
Kentavo
March 1st, 2011
12:30 pm
Bills comparison is inaccurate; Bills never won the SB; Braves won the WS.
Brian
March 1st, 2011
12:33 pm
You people are out of your mind! And thats being polite. The Braves will be lucky to finish ahead of Florida.
JDA
March 1st, 2011
12:35 pm
Let’s see:
1B- Howard by a mile
2B – Utley
SS – Rollins – easily
3B – draw … maybe slight edge to Peg Leg Jones
C- McCann – easily
LF – Prado – Ibanez draw
CF- Victorino – easily
RF- Heyward
Braves win 2 positions. Tie on 2 positions Phillies win 4 positions.
Joe Tess Fish House
March 1st, 2011
12:35 pm
No way can the Braves beet the Phillys with a loosing manager with a loosing record.
The 7th hole at Mystery Valley Golf Course.
March 1st, 2011
12:36 pm
Watch out for the deer.
Jesse Stone
March 1st, 2011
12:38 pm
Joe Tess- Your spelling schtick is old. Try something new.
JC from DR!
March 1st, 2011
12:41 pm
Nice to read about someone taking the Braves’ side. But let’s not forget that even Diory Hernandez would become a MVP candidate if playing for the Phils.
Let’s hope for the best. One thing im sure about, is that this season, is going to be a great one for the Braves!
Dirty Dawg
March 1st, 2011
12:43 pm
Notice Mr. Olney said he was ‘considering’ picking the Braves…also notice when and where he was saying it. I’ll believe it when it happens – his actual prediction – then I’ll celebrate when it, the winning that is, actually happens. Meanwhile, let’s just enjoy baseball again.
Jesse Stone
March 1st, 2011
12:44 pm
The only teammate not skeered to call out Hanley Ramirez now plays for the Braves. The Marlins have a lame duck manager and a bunch of kids on the team. Hanley runs the Marlins this year.
Matt
March 1st, 2011
12:44 pm
Phillies are old and getting older if the braves fail to win the east this year they will win the Wild card this year and East next year.
Belcher
March 1st, 2011
12:45 pm
Hope
chipper doesn’t play too long like Mickey Mantle. Read the latest Mantle book, “The Last Boy” by Jane Leavy.
Jesse Stone
March 1st, 2011
12:47 pm
If you enjoy reading about the real game of baseball, read “The Baeball Codes”. Very good book about cheating, brawls, beanballs, life on the road, etc
Phillisux
March 1st, 2011
12:48 pm
Let’s see:
1B- Howard padding his stats in the regular season, and choking in the playoffs – slight edge.
2B- Uggla with the bat, Utley the glove
SS- Slight edge to the fading Rollins
3B- Chipper
Catcher: Perrenial all-star McCann by huge margin over “Gordo” Ruiz
RF- Heyward by huge margin
CF- Victorino if Braves have nobody to play CF
LF- Prado by huge margin over Methuselah Ibanez
Braves win 4 positions; Phils 3; one tie
JDA
March 1st, 2011
12:48 pm
I’m writing a book … “The Life and Times of Charlie Sheens’ Pipe” should be out shortly.
Jesse Stone
March 1st, 2011
12:48 pm
****Baseball
Josh Smith For 3
March 1st, 2011
12:49 pm
The lineup should be more formidable, and even with guys like Infante and Diaz gone the Braves still have good depth off the bench. The Braves have a great deal of balanced pitching as well. There are 3 x-factors in my opinion: how well the fifth starter and closer, whoever they may be, perform; the Braves’ defensive performance; and of course the health of Chipper and the other Braves who missed time last year. But I like our odds with Prado, Heyward, Chipper, Mac, and Uggla in the first half of the lineup…
Lucky
March 1st, 2011
12:49 pm
Leeve Joe alone he is a ture fan who just points out the oblivious.
Joey M
March 1st, 2011
12:50 pm
We have improved vastly at 3 key positions. Left Field, Second Base, and First Base. Glaus did have a wonderful early summer, but Freeman will be more consistent and will deliver better defense. Second Base with the beast known as Dan Uggla has just become a power position. How many teams can say they replaced an All-Star and got better? Left Field with the athletic Martin Prado is going to be fun. He won’t remind us of Ronny Gant, but he will be the best since Gant. Not as much power, but a comparable slugging percentage due to his doubles power. Outside of those 3, we project to also be better in Center Field. There is no way McLouth will not be better this year. Schafer has looked real good so far. McCann is trim. Heyward has a years experience. Gonzalez at Short will be steady. Good defense and a decent bat. Chipper is the only question. Worst case scenario, Chipper can’t recover, Prado moves to Third, and Joe Mather or Matt Young split time in left. Hinske off the bench is the best in the game. He brings a level of intensity that is needed.
Our rotation will continue to be solid. Jurrjens will be better. If Lowe can find his grip earlier in the season like he did last year, could win 18 games. Hanson was a stud last year that got no run support. Hanson should push for 15-18 wins. Hudson is the man in this staff. He could win 20 with enough runs scored. Mike Minor should win the 5th spot. He will not be the second coming of Steve Avery, but he will be very very good. If Minor puts in the work, learns hitters like Glavine did, he could be just as good as Glavine. And Glavine won 300 games. 2012 will rock. We will have Kris Medlen back. That kid is going to be a star.
The bullpen will be good. But not great. Last year, it was great. Best in baseball. Sherrill and Linebrink will keep us in games. I don’t see any way Venters can be as good as last year. If he is, look out. Kimbrel NEEDS to throw strikes. Once he gets his control, well, under control, he will be a force in the 9th. Now, Wagner is still on the active roster. I find this strange that knowing he didn’t want to pitch this year he still hasn’t put in his retirement papers. If Wagner can’t stay away and he wants to come back, this bullpen will be better than last year. It’s amazing what one player can do to an entire position. He’s that good.
The Phillies will pitch and pitch well. How many games will their pen keep them in? And if their pen collapses, than will the starters press in an attempt to finish the game on their own due to lack of faith in the bullpen? Werth was more valuable than most people know. There is a reason (not stupidity) Washington thew that money at Werth. He’s a 5-Tool player that is a game changer. Utley will still hit, but Ryan Howard will struggle to hit 30 Home Runs. No protection behind him. Why pitch to him?
Jesse Stone
March 1st, 2011
12:50 pm
As long as we are comparing teams, what player do some Phillies fans have a man-crush on that we can match against Jordan Schafer?
Joe P
March 1st, 2011
12:51 pm
Is there a website that’s broadcasting the game today?
Skeezix
March 1st, 2011
12:53 pm
Glad to see that Olney agrees with me that this group of Braves is very capable of getting it done this year.
JDA
March 1st, 2011
12:54 pm
Joey M…we improve in LF only in the games Prado isn’t at 3B. Then we are as bad or worse in LF. I hope you are right about 1B…I have a lot of doubts. Freeman is a possible Mendoza candidate.
Jesse Stone
March 1st, 2011
12:56 pm
Joey M
March 1st, 2011
12:50 pm
Schafer has looked real good so far.
_____________________________________________________
He’s played TWO games and is 1 for 7. Yeah….REAL GOOD!!
GT Alum
March 1st, 2011
12:56 pm
Nice to hear Olney stating the same arguments I was making for not writing the Braves off after the Phillies signed Lee.
JDA
March 1st, 2011
12:56 pm
good one Jesse. Schfaer is a joke.
Carl
March 1st, 2011
12:57 pm
@JoeyM
Why do you think Ryan Howard will struggle to hit 30 home runs? He hit 31 last year while missing 3 weeks due to an injury. I think a lot of you are overstating the age factor. Yes, the Phils players are not exactly spring chickens anymore but they’re not ancient either. A-Rod and Jeter are still producing at 35 and 36 so why should I expect Howard and Utley to just fall off the face of the earth at 31 and 32? I think age will be much more of a factor in 2 years but right now it’s just reaching. Also, the fact that the Phillies play in a hitters ballpark will ease the decline process on some of these players. Howard is still going to get his cheapies at CBP.
JDA
March 1st, 2011
12:59 pm
well stated Carl. facts are facts…the Phillies are easily better. The Braves have improved a bit and the Phillies have remained the same…losing Werth and gaining more pitching.
Mark's for the Braves
March 1st, 2011
1:02 pm
I think the Braves just need some confidence and to get off to a good start. A few wins over the Phillies early would help. I’d like to see the Braves at least in a tie for first at the end of April. No more 9 game losing streaks like last year.
joseph b.
March 1st, 2011
1:07 pm
The braves have what it takes,If nate can be the ledoff,the team need the braves should go all the way.Now it all depends on the speed we have.GO BRAVES.
K.Conway
March 1st, 2011
1:10 pm
Braves are a joke! The Phillies win easy! Chipper will watch from the bench most of the year spitting out seeds or tobacco wads!
kyle tadman
March 1st, 2011
1:11 pm
I did not even read the article….what for? Who really needs Buster Olney to tell us that our pitching is outstanding and our everyday line-up has the potential to be excellent. And what about him…makes him an expert? Because he works for the YESPN? (…the Yankees Entertainment Sports Network…for those unable to make sense of that) This joke of news organization is as biased and uncredible as any on air today. Experts…give me a break!!
Aaron Carty and Cepeda
March 1st, 2011
1:13 pm
A healthy Chipper Jones is what this club needs against Philadelphia…
DawginOH
March 1st, 2011
1:19 pm
Thanks for the vote of confidence, Buster! Go Bravos!
Ted M
March 1st, 2011
1:27 pm
I’m starting to feel like the Braves are gonna a really good season. There are some ifs; like Freeman, center field and defense but ever team has ifs.
What if Freeman & Schafer have great yrs?
Ted M
March 1st, 2011
1:27 pm
are gonna “have” a really good
DJ
March 1st, 2011
1:31 pm
Player by player projections/comparisons are interesting….but ultimately some of our guys will do better than we expect, and some will do worse. Same for the Philthies, but there’s no way to know. This season is going to be about winning the series and the games that they need to win, as a team, on the field. Not individual performances or stats.
I picked the Braves last year, and felt pretty good about it until the injuries piled up at the end. This year, they will be right there, too.
I think there are three keys to the season. One, I disagree that the head-to-head meetings will be split, and thus not that important. I think the Braves need to go 11-7 or 10-8 against the Phils. They need to get it done against them. If they don’t win the season series, I don’t think they win the Division.
Two, the Braves have to take care of business against the Nats and the Marlins. Not acceptable to go .500 or worse against them…they play them 18 times each, also. The Braves historically give away too many games to those teams.
And three, get some separation prior to the last 3 weeks of the season. Unless the Braves show me something different this year, they seem to play too tight in the crunch. Don’t want to be in a position to have to sweep the Phils or win a crunch-time series against Halladay and Lee in September.
nique
March 1st, 2011
1:31 pm
yeah, basically things have to wrong for the phillies and right for the braves in all IFFY situations.
Phillisux
March 1st, 2011
1:36 pm
K.Conway March 1st, 2011 1:10 pm
Braves are a joke! The Phillies win easy! Chipper will watch from the bench most of the year spitting out seeds or tobacco wads!
*********************************************
And you are a loser, so what’s your point?
Puzzled
March 1st, 2011
1:38 pm
No! Too many “Ifs” in the conversation, and you did say “leaning towards” picking the Braves.
Just because someone thinks a team is the favorite to win, it doesn’t really mean anything. Absolutely nothing, just one person’s opinion.
Just too many too things can happen that can change the expected outcome.
Mitchell
March 1st, 2011
1:44 pm
Frankly, our best chance to do it was last year.
I really thought this time a year ago they had what it took to take down the Phils and when they took two of three from them right before the All Star break I thought they had them all but knocked out.
But leave it to old Bobby Cox to screw it up.
I don’t get quite the same feeling this year but what the hell.
It’s about time somebody stuck their neck and decided to go the path of least resistance.
These people never have any hesitation about picking the Cubs to win the World Series every year it seems.
There’s no reason, barring injury of course, for the Braves not to make the playoffs. I just wonder if they have the same magic touch in 2011.