LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
7:41 pm
45 – I’m pretty sure we’re thinking of the same place & I KNOW POAD is talking the same place.
That BBQ was awesome as well. Their tagline was “We’re a 1 star restaurant and PROUD of it!” They would actually cut your tie off if you dared to wear one when you came in…
That pool hall had a blackjack machine in the front room. WORST thing that ever happened to me? i won $1200 on that blackjack machine.
Took 3 weeks for me to get paid. I thought I had that machine beat… Gave it all back (and then some) over the next couple of months.
No more blackjack machines for dcbl…
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:42 pm
DID you see that FREAKING Throw and CATCH? Oh my GOD. Oh my GOD.
thelittlepecan
January 15th, 2011
7:46 pm
@ POAD-Born and bred. I make a badass chocolate pecan pie, too, among other things.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
7:48 pm
TWO DOLLARS and 25 cents for a fried baloney sandwich on white wonder bread… Abd an ORIGINAL Falcons helmet on a shelf in the front room…
they don’t make ‘em like that anymore…
OK – enough old school Atlanta nostalgia
time to take the 1st step towards our 1st SUPER BOWL WIN!!!
OK – I lied… Just a little more nostalgia:
Lewis Grizzard (the only columnist/sports writer for AJC that I ever liked better than Schultzie – plus he never called my Dawgs the ‘Trembling Chihuahuas – even though they DID deserve that moniker that jeff came up with at the time) once said,
“Sports Illustrated says that sports are lousy in Atlanta. Playboy magazine says the women are fabulous. Could be worse. Could be the other way around…”
rilo
January 15th, 2011
7:48 pm
It all rides on our D and Turner. However, if we win the turnover battle +2 I think we can not be as perfect on D. We must take care of the ball and we must convert on 3rd downs
rilo
January 15th, 2011
7:50 pm
what a choke by Baltimore!!!
thelittlepecan
January 15th, 2011
7:51 pm
Hey, Atlanta has beautiful women, polite men, fantastic food and great college ball. I miss Grizzard. My grandparents had all his books (we never had an AJC subscription) and I read each one well before I was a teen. I love this state.
Romeo Joe
January 15th, 2011
7:51 pm
Enter your comments here
Green Bay 27
Falcons 14
Insiders tip?
Bet the bank on it I swear!
Najeh Davenpoop
January 15th, 2011
7:52 pm
Steelers-Ravens never fails to be entertaining.
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:52 pm
Did you see Michael Oher on the sideline a few minutes earlier? He look pissed. No way am I gonna say anything about his Momma like that guy in the movie.
Romeo Joe
January 15th, 2011
7:53 pm
lmfao@ CUZ!
Innocent Bystander
January 15th, 2011
7:53 pm
That was a terrible kick.
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:53 pm
What’s not to love little?
Just an old sweet song……………………..
Romeo Joe
January 15th, 2011
7:54 pm
Enter your comments here
Cuz whats the score over in the other game?
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
7:54 pm
15 Minutes until the “Falcons Annual Draft Day Parade”
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:54 pm
a PICK right there would have let us go to the Falcons game now.
Romeo Joe
January 15th, 2011
7:55 pm
Enter your comments here
lmfao@5150 P.O.A.D.
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:55 pm
31-24 Iron Curtains
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
7:55 pm
ok. I’m just one or two away from being ‘over served’
which means I could be guilty of PUI (posting while intoxicated)
remember this?
Call in to Atlanta Fulton County Stadium and ask, “What time does the game start?”
Answer, “What time can you get here???” (Braves AND Falcons)
AND the old billboards (Ted never had problems getting billboards, did he?) – “THIS COULD BE THE YEAR!
Ah yes, the bad old days for Atlanta sports. At least we had the Chiefs (soccer) and Flames – for a minute…
rilo
January 15th, 2011
7:56 pm
Flacco might be one of worst QB’s in the NFL….He’s an idiot
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:56 pm
Down Goes Flacco
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
7:56 pm
It’s 10 minutes before kickoff and everybody is in their seats.
rilo
January 15th, 2011
7:57 pm
Jeff….you think the players are going to “show” up too?
thelittlepecan
January 15th, 2011
7:57 pm
This game is ridiculous. Can we move on to the main attraction.
@ Cuz-my feelings exactly. Well, I got no love for Athens, but that doesn’t count.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:57 pm
STEELERS win
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:57 pm
PUI…hummmm, no comment.
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:58 pm
and Baltimore loses after being up so much, am I watching the Ravens or a repeat of the Georgia-Auburn game.
Romeo Joe
January 15th, 2011
7:58 pm
Green Bay – 27
Atlanta- 14
FINAL SCORE!
Falco
January 15th, 2011
7:58 pm
Huge drops by Baltimore…….HUGE!
thelittlepecan
January 15th, 2011
7:59 pm
Finally.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
7:59 pm
Keep the faith little pecan!!
FWIW – ‘ole Lewis had the single greatest headline in ALL of sports journalism! Family blog, so here is a link:
http://catfishandcornbread.blogspot.com/2008/09/greatest-headline-in-history-of-sports.html
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:59 pm
Schultz You wife will give you VICTORY SEX tonight for her team. Now lets see what the FALCONS do for your love life.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:59 pm
Cuz don’t bring up bad memories…Oh the horror…
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
8:00 pm
pecan. I’m a little nuts myself, ask anyone.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
8:00 pm
One of the bizzare games ever – Ravens, 130 yds of offense.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
8:01 pm
Rilo — Like I said earlier, biggest question is whether there’s early “rust” because of layoff. Steelers experienced that.
thelittlepecan
January 15th, 2011
8:01 pm
I think one of my posts is missing…
what am I keeping the faith in?
Romeo Joe
January 15th, 2011
8:01 pm
Dank Gawdd its finally OVER!
Now Green Bay can commence whipping Atlanta’s azz 27-14!
Bet the college money on it.
It’s a “done” deal.
Guaranteed.
Tomorrow morning I am going to wake up a very rich man by many fold by betting it all on Green bay and that “particular” score.
Think I’m kidding?
You are welcome.
Now go bet it all and become instantly rich!
Falco
January 15th, 2011
8:01 pm
Awwwright…..lets do this!!!!!!!
thelittlepecan
January 15th, 2011
8:02 pm
Woooooohoooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
oneanddone
January 15th, 2011
8:02 pm
Don’t blame the HAWKS for having a game they expected like the rest of the world that the SORRY Pigeons would be at home watching the playoffs. HAWKS you will not have a conflict after tonight.LOL!!!LOL!!!! GO PACKS!!!!!
J.J.M.
January 15th, 2011
8:02 pm
damn im so nervous feel like im going to throw up
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
8:02 pm
Packers 31
Falcants 10 (If Turner shows up)
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
8:02 pm
POAD — My guess is she’ll be asleep by the time I get home . . . but I’ll be sure NOT to give you an update.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
8:03 pm
Okay time to flip over to channel 5. Let’s go Falcons!
Falco
January 15th, 2011
8:03 pm
We get a “pity pick” from Bradshaw.
Romeo Joe
January 15th, 2011
8:04 pm
LOL @ Matt “CHOKE” Ryan
mountain_jim
January 15th, 2011
8:04 pm
RISE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
8:04 pm
Last call for pre-CHOKE excuses.
The bar closes in 15 minutes
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
8:04 pm
JJM ~ please refer to my earlier post to overcome that.