LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
chipontheroad birdsrus
January 15th, 2011
6:50 pm
Saints Bleaux Falcons GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mountain_jim
January 15th, 2011
6:50 pm
Falcons still have suffered a lot less injuries than most teams this season. Another reason why this could be the RISE UP season where we make it back to the big game. I hope the team is as jazzed up as the fans are for this game – jump on them early and get the crowd raging.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:52 pm
Ross L not Ross B — “determined.” Hah, yeah, good word.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:53 pm
AtlFalcons4Eva — Haha. I’ll let you know if I see a Saints or Eagles jersey. None yet.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:55 pm
DCBL — I didn’t know that. Condi Rice is a Falcons fan? Well, she is originally from 2 hours away from here (Birmingham).
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
6:57 pm
Steelers all the way back – Tomlin shines again – got his team’s feces coagulated during the half. I’ll bet Miami are kicking themselves.
dawg4u
January 15th, 2011
6:58 pm
Steelers and Ravens now tied at 21.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
6:59 pm
I only saw the article because it was linked up here through the AJC sports pages:
http://www.politico.com/click/stories/1101/rice_predicts_super_bowl_winners.html
bham dawg – you getting on this blog anytime soon?
dcbl – your UGA & Falcon connection in Bham (or Hoover – whatever – we still have the SEC baseball tourney and the Barons for the moment…)
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:00 pm
Baltimore is self destructing before our eyes…
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:00 pm
I don’t think I can take the Falcons game being like this Steelers v Ravens. This would give me a too amny gray hairs and a heart attack.
Greg Mendel
January 15th, 2011
7:01 pm
Falcons 20. Green Bay 17.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
7:02 pm
Ravens have less that 100 yds O after 3 qtrs – unbelievable that they are even in the game.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 15th, 2011
7:04 pm
So… who’s watching the Hawks game tonight?
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:06 pm
POAD – that is what the jack and ice is for…lol
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
7:06 pm
Najeh – are they playing the Saints?
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:06 pm
Najeh
NOBODY any where cares about the NBA.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:07 pm
How many of y’all remember the 80 playoff game against the Cowboys? We were robbed!
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:09 pm
45ACP
I know, but Jack don’t help with the Gray Hairs. It may calm me down for the Heart Attack though.
mountain_jim
January 15th, 2011
7:10 pm
I remember that game – I had a wife and sister in law who were huge Dallas fans in the room with me – they cackled and screamed when they won. D I V O R C E
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:11 pm
Jeff, I hear the Zac Brown Band is going to sing the National Anthem. What are the odds that those guys don’t butcher it like a warbling diva.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
7:11 pm
Greg, where have I seen that prediction?
Oh yeah – page 1…
Take the Falcons, don’t worry about laying the 1.5 (or 2.5,, depending on your friendly neighborhood bookie) and go heavy on the under
Got it
Jeff – did you ever go to the Buckhead Pool Hall on Irby Ave? (aka ‘Gene O’s Casino)?
For a while, it was the best and oldest bar in Buckhead. old school pool tables, a boneless, skinless chicken dinner for only $0.30 (that was a hard boiled egg from a large mason jar), fried baloney sandwiches and blackjack dealt at the front counter (I was there one night when ATL vice came in about 10 minutes after a phone call tip came in…) and 7 plays on the jukebox for a dollar
They had a very eclectic selection on the jukebox – country AND western songs – all modern new age stuff from the 50’s, 60’s and some VERY modern songs from the early 70’s as well!
One time I asked ‘ole Gene for a coke. His reply?
“What the hell do you think this is, son? A GD candy store?” (Gene didn’t abbreviate with initials)
Then he handed me my regular – a longneck Bud
I miss the Buckhead Amusement Center…
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:12 pm
Most people aint old as dirt 45. just you and me.
Falco
January 15th, 2011
7:13 pm
Me too Cuz.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 15th, 2011
7:14 pm
“Najeh
NOBODY any where cares about the NBA.”
Haha… I don’t agree with this, but I won’t deny the Hawks and the NBA monumentally screwed up by scheduling a game for tonight.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:15 pm
POAD – Just did 5 lines of coke, a handfull of xanax and a bottle of makers mark. Heart working just fine…lol
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
7:15 pm
I’m older than Moon dirt.
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:15 pm
Just finished watching the Dawgs destroy Ole Miss. I wish I understood basketball, they look like they are having fun.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:16 pm
Cuz !!! How you is?
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:16 pm
Ross, that is old.
Cuz
January 15th, 2011
7:17 pm
I’m okay 45. Got twenty chicken wings and about the same amount of beers so I should be okay.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
7:18 pm
Cuz — Heard the Zac Brown warming up. I think they’ll be OK.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:18 pm
Sounds like you and Baylie ready!
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
7:18 pm
kudo’s to the groundskeepers at Heinz Field.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
7:19 pm
DCBL — Never been to the Buckhead Pool Hall.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
7:19 pm
45 has found the secret to living a long life!
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:20 pm
CUZ how is Baylie?
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:20 pm
I live right off of Highway 20 here in Bartow County. Like the Highway 20 Ride song!
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
7:20 pm
Zac is from Thomaston. Ga.
A scant 12 mi. from the “Chef’s” Manor.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:23 pm
That was 1 hell of a PUNT right there.
Innocent Bystander
January 15th, 2011
7:24 pm
Jeff, I hear the Zac Brown Band is going to sing the National Anthem. What are the odds that those guys don’t butcher it like a warbling diva.
Those guys can really sing. Great harmonies on their albums. If this is true, I bet they’ll do very well.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
7:25 pm
You missed out big time Jeff. Gene let me help bartend for his 50th anniversary 9I think it was in ‘96 or ‘97)
the regulars loved me (I was the youngest regular – in my 20’s) There were circles around the lonalium floors around the pool tables where you could see the concrete in the back room. They had NO air conditioning & a regular HIGH stakes poker game every weekend (I never made those)
An Atlanta landmark that has since been gentrified… Wonder who the Atlanta cops use as their bookie now???
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:27 pm
Buckhead Pool Hall? I use to frequent a pool hall just across the street from Aunt Charlies there.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:29 pm
I think it was called the Q Room. Not sure. A long time ago in the 70’s…
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
7:30 pm
This Steelers Ravens game is an object lesson in learning how to contain your emotions. Both teams are out of control. That’s a coaching issue.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:32 pm
45
The Pool hall was across the street (IRBY) from the Texas Line BBQ and next door to Nothside Tool Rental. Old NASCAR schedules on the walls. It was a great HOLE in the WALL.
Caleb's Sports Corner
January 15th, 2011
7:32 pm
are they wearing the throwbacks or the regular redz
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:34 pm
Big Ben don’t need a Big Bang just move it down the field, burn the clock, and Kick the Field Goal for the win.
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
7:37 pm
The place I remember was a hole in the wall. Had a curtain for a door on the bathrooms,
Won a lot of money there playing 9 ball!
thelittlepecan
January 15th, 2011
7:37 pm
Can a chick get in on this party? Apparently I’m watching the game alone (but I do have beer and home fried buffalo strips.) *happy football dance*
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
7:41 pm
the LIL PEE CAN?
That is what you keep under your bed for emergencies at night in the winters. Now That is the God OLE SOUTH.