LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
blazerdawg
January 15th, 2011
5:59 pm
People new to ATL have NO IDEA how bad that 1980(1) loss to the Cowboys was. The build-up to that moment was years in the making.
JMAYNE
January 15th, 2011
6:00 pm
Anyone know what the falcons are wearing? Red and White? Would be a nice time to bring out the all blacks. Throwbacks would be a nice touch. This team could prove they are actually over all the bad falcons history.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
6:01 pm
Well I was living in St. Louis when the Rams won the Super Bowl and Faulk is golden IMO – a hardnosed and smart football player and I think he’s right – winning will require conquering the emotions of having a big season ride on one game – we (StL) won that Tampa game 11-0 with the best offense ever and were losing the Super Bowl until Warner and Bruce broke it open. I didn’t think he meant any disrespect, he was speaking from experience. If you think ATL is desperate for a championship – try STL – the Cards had never won a playoff game at home in their entire STL history and those people were ALL nervous wrecks
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:01 pm
blazer, I cannot think of a sports moment that compares to it for me. What do you say we purge the demons tonight? Kicking the Pack back to Wisconsin would be mighty good medicine.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:03 pm
Yeah. I think you are reading it right. And yeah I totally respect the guy. But I didnt care for the comment in light of all the negativity this week from the national press.
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Lesa
January 15th, 2011
6:03 pm
PreyDawg, I think that 47-17 drubbing is why Faulk doesn’t like the Falcons. All the talking heads are so far off base. All season long, they have built up teams like the Packers, the Ravens and the Saints as the “most dangerous team in the NFL” or “hottest team in the NFL” — that is, until the Falcons beat those teams. Then, they’d move on to another “best/latest/hottest” team that was never the Falcons. After we win tonight, we still won’t get respect. The only way that will happen is if we win the Super Bowl and with our luck there will be a strike in the offseason that will take all the attention away from the Falcons as reigning champs . . . Face it, we are the Rodney Dangerfields of the NFL. We’ll have to win 2 or 3 Super Bowls to get any real respect from the national media.
Zach
January 15th, 2011
6:03 pm
@JMAYNE–It will be the normal home uniforms. The NFL has very specific rules about alternate uniforms. They’re only allowed to wear them twice each season. It won’t be the all blacks because, as of right now, they aren’t in the rotation. The throwbacks took their place.
Greg Mendel
January 15th, 2011
6:05 pm
Both teams have a game plan. What if both plans collapse? If that happens, my money’s on The Iceman.
Nice thing about this game (and this Falcons team) is that nobody doubts that the Falcons can win tonight. That old “fluke” feeling of an inevitable loss is gone.
(Best sports headline of the year (from theonion.com): “New Orleans Saints Lose First Round Bye.” Go, Seahawks!)
Zach
January 15th, 2011
6:05 pm
unless the rules change for the playoffs. J. Schultz, any word on the unis?
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:05 pm
Yeah but we are still here right Lesa? The core Falcons fans are the most loyal fanbase in the NFL. Folks like the ones here on this board tonight have endured it all. Its our time tonight!!
blazerdawg
January 15th, 2011
6:05 pm
Prey – with you all the way – this is a different organization now. Thanks mentioning the Dawgs; ashamed to say I forgot they were on.
GO BIRDS!
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:07 pm
Somebody asked about the UNIS. I am currently wearing every piece of Falcon gear I own….at the same time…I even have a glove on that I caught from Big Play Ray in 1998. I am certain that I look like a dork but i dont care.
SAL PAOLANTONIO
January 15th, 2011
6:07 pm
The national media are an unfortunate segment of the populace.
Falco
January 15th, 2011
6:07 pm
I can’t even see straight….I’m so jacked up!
*more coffee!*
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
6:07 pm
What the Falcons cannot do is what the Steelers are doing now – choking emotionally – and Tomlin is standing there like an Easter Island monolith! He needs to move around and show some leadership in the face of adversity!
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
6:09 pm
The Ravens have a 2 TD lead with 98 yards of offense!!!!
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
6:10 pm
If the Falcons bust out the throwbacks I may have to be taken to Grady.
downtoearth
January 15th, 2011
6:11 pm
Falcons won the last meeting only by luck. Rodgers fumble at the goal line and a controversial 4th down conversion late in the game. It will be real close again today. If ATL doesn’t turn the ballover, it will be 20-17 Falcons. If they do I don’t see how they can win.
Lesa
January 15th, 2011
6:12 pm
PreyDawg, you are so right. I couldn’t care less what the media think. I love my Falcons!!!! Speaking of Falcons gear, I am suspicious about what I wear on game day. I have a purchased in 2010 Falcons shirt on today. When we played the Eagles in the NFC championship game a few years back, I wore a t-shirt commemorating the Falcons very first playoff win vs. the Eagles in 1978. Going old school didn’t work that time. I am going to get out the pom poms I got at the playoff game vs. the 49ers in 1998. Man, wish I could be at the game tonight!!! I’ll still be hollering loudly at home, though. GO FALCONS!!!!!!!!!
Jimmy
January 15th, 2011
6:13 pm
Very few people pick the Falcons to win this game.
Let’s hope we can shove our victory down their throats.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:13 pm
PreyDawg — Marshall Faulk said Falcons were “scared”? Seriously?
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:13 pm
Chef Tim — I’ll still respect you in the morning even if you switch teams. But I’ll openly weep.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:14 pm
downtoearth….wrong place wrong time bro. Take that crap somewhere else. If Rodgers had not fumbled we would not have been in a prevent and given up the late score to them. Coulda woulda shoulda. We won. End of story.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:15 pm
Gotta go give a speech kiddies. Commited to it before the playoff schedule and it is killing me that I have to leave. Believe me I will wrap it up in plenty of time. See you crazies a little later.
heartofdarkness
January 15th, 2011
6:15 pm
None of the experts liking the Falcons straight up. Dirty Birds look like the Admiral Stockdale of 2011 (Why am I here?). Looking forward to hearing what the experts say after the game.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:15 pm
JMayne — Sources in the clothing department tell me that the Falcons are wearing red jerseys.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:16 pm
Zach (above).
SAL PAOLANTONIO
January 15th, 2011
6:16 pm
Marshall Faulk picked the Falcons because of a better offensive line and Michael Turner.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:17 pm
Jeff. Yeah. I think he meant scared to turn the corner and succeed. But that is not the way he said it.
idot
January 15th, 2011
6:17 pm
Is Marshall Faulk one of those turds that work for one of those national turd locker sports networks?
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
6:17 pm
Faulk changed his tune later in the day then
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
6:18 pm
The Falcons are the better team. They are at home coming off a bye. Vegas thinks so too. Nuff said. Falcons win, period.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
6:20 pm
Jimmy – it’s about 50/50 for punditry and the Birds. Rumors of our disrespect are overstated. And Faulk’s just speaking from his own experience – hell I’m scared featherless myself and I can’t fit into my old uniform
I wonder if Marion Campbell and Pat Pepplar are watching from up above?
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
6:22 pm
Landry from Tech is ave a good game for the Ravens today too.Steelers need to make some big plays nd fast.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:27 pm
They handed out red “Rise Up” flags to fans. Expect a REAL wave when the game starts.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
6:30 pm
Steelers finally get a Turnover. HAVE to HAVE 7 right here.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:32 pm
If the Steelers lose this game, I’m going to be afraid to see what my house looks like when I get home (Wife is from Pittsburgh.)
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
6:32 pm
Jeff
Do you think those Rise Up Red Flags will work as well as the RISE UP RED PANTIES Damon Evans had in his lap?
Florida Bird
January 15th, 2011
6:36 pm
Me very noiviss!
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
6:37 pm
Jeff – ROFL my Mom was from Pittsburgh and they are “determined”
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
6:39 pm
FALCONS INACTIVES: Most notable is Brian Williams, who’s out with a knee injury. That hurts. … Others: JP Wilson (third QB), LB Spencer Adkins, OT Garrett Reynolds, G Mike Johnson, TE Michael Palmer, DE Lawrence Sidbury, DT Trey Lewis.
chipontheroad birdsrus
January 15th, 2011
6:41 pm
ravens knocked the rust off of the steelers now they are ready to knock back
45ACP
January 15th, 2011
6:43 pm
Love me some Hines Ward!
ATLFalcons4Eva
January 15th, 2011
6:44 pm
Hey Jeff –
Have the fans started coming into the dome early yet?
Do you see any Saints fans/jerseys in the dome or Eagles fans/jerseys…? Oops….my error…Those losers (Saints and Eagles) were knocked out and their fans are AT HOME ! ! ! ha ha ha
Geaux Falcons ! ! !
Go Falcons…
Lesa
January 15th, 2011
6:44 pm
I don’t care what the national media think, really. I like it when the Falcons are treated as underdogs; it makes it even sweeter when our boys prove them wrong.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
6:45 pm
45acp
I have to say Hines WARD is the Best NFL DAWG IMO. Ward is total Class and Team player.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
6:46 pm
One day a long, long time ago there was a woman who did not fuss, whine, nag or complain.
But is was a long, long time ago; and it was just that one day…
Yes – I posted this on Chip’s recruiting blog, but I thought it would comfort Jeff as he prepares to face his better half if the Steelers don’t mount a comeback…
ATLFalcons4Eva
January 15th, 2011
6:47 pm
Thankfully, its cold outside and our fans will end their tailgate sooner than normal and get inside early and get the atmosphere pumped! ! !
Let’s Geaux Falcons….! ! ! (How you like dat Saints?)
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
6:50 pm
Condi Rice thinks the Falcons will win it all (what a smart & classy lady – eh?)
IF they do, it will be confirmation that the Hopis and Mayans were correct – the world is VERY close to ending…
I don’t care. End of the world party at my house. Party like a rock star!
go birds