LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
Tenndawg65
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
Are you f’in kidding me??? Super Bowl? Super Bowl??? I’ve been a Falcon fan for 40 f’in years, and this is just like it. Tease you, then break your *** in half in the playoffs…playoffs??? I am so f’in pissed right now that I allowed myself to become so emotionally involved with this stupid football team that I threw a table, chips, dip all over, daughter in shock, me still pissed, over a team that should’ve beaten the **** out of the GB Packers. LOTS of work to do. Matty Ice – love him – but he’s still a young guy, lots to learn. But, he may be the next ‘one’. Ain’t this year.
Smyrnoff
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
No one can survive 4 turnovers.
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
ANOTHER FUMBLE!!!
FHZ
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
Opie is right.
Our defense blows. The city of Atlanta is afraid to spend money on talent. If they weren’t they would have signed Asomugha.
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I don’t know who “Opie” is..but, you’re correct.
These area does not seem to care for “headliner” types of players here..but those teams with those type of players..win..in big games.
You get burned by one, doesn’t mean that you never attempt to get another one..
Instead they overpay for other players who don’t measure-up, or are just decent players.
This outlook only takes you so far..
“A tight fist: Not much goes out, not much goes in it either..”
lol.
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
AGAIN WOW
Whodat D
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE SCORE 50!
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
THE FALCONS JUST FUMBLED AGAIN??????????????????????? REALLY?????? OH, THIS IS RICH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dat_saint
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
Who knew General Sherman would return to Atlanta wearing a Packers Uniform? You guys are LOSERS!!! matty ice!?!
root4au
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
Matt Ryan as your franchise qb? Are you kidding me? Falcons were lucky to win 5 of their games this year and it showed tonight. 6th seed team beat the shiat out of you. Aaron Rogers is a qb you can win with. Oh and the Falcons Defense really sucks..
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
We want 50! We want 50!
ls1z28chris
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
I told you so. I told you the Falcons were overrated. I tole you Matty “ice” was horrible. I told you they would falter to a good opponent. I told you so.
RISE UP!
Cheesehead69
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
Why are there so many empty seats in the middle of the 4th quarter? Have the Atlanta fans given up already? I figured there were a lot of fair-weather fans but this is embarrassing for Atlanta on national TV.
whodey
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
why’s all saints fans on here? don’t they have somebody to go shoot or rob?
GETTOFFDABUSS
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
cant tell which is more embarrassing the run that seattle guy had on us or to talk smack about how the guy embarassed us and then watch this pathetic mess from your team a week later…smh
Saints Fan
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
I have never laughed so hard in my life! No. 1 seed, get blown out. You can kiss our ring that we won when we backed up being a REAL No. 1 seed.
dawgs01
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
Matt Ryan has regresses the last four weeks he looked like a rookie tonight
Smyrnoff
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
This is the qb who scored 3 on Detroit.
jmt825
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
The Falcons are who we thought they were choking dogs lol and Ryan is who we though he was a loser from Boson College, LOL I love this game HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE AND YOU GET RUN OFF THE FIELD. LOL THIS WAS WORTH LOSING TO GB 21 -16
ATL Born
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
An exciting season . . . Like I said earlier . . . we lost to the Steelers, Eagles, and Saints. All playoff contenders. Its not impressive or exciting when you beat mediocre teams. Troy Aikmen just said, Where do the Falcons go from here? To win the no. one seed then get your azz handed to you.
tvlgds
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
I have never done this in my life but after the nasty Falcons fans that spammed the nola board with nasty vitriol, trashing the city, trashing the team, trashing the people, I must say I am loving this blowout. Fumble #4, score 45-21 for the moment–hope it’s 52 to 21 here shortly. So, to all the nasty fans, you can eat your crow with Cajun seasoning. To the decent fans, I’m sorry for your loss.
DebL
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
ANOTHER Falcon turnover!!!! Bee-you-tee-full!!!!!
Hahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
HERE COMES 52-14
DeepDiver
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
A vintage performance at an inopportune time.
whodatvisiter
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
5:26 to FAILURE. TIC TOC
Matt Ryan II
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
Troy wants to sleep with Aaron
Shaneboz
January 15th, 2011
11:07 pm
What about it being a bye week for the Falcons?? Home field advantage?? All the totally ridiculous predictions of the score by the Falcons fans?? The Falcons need a secondary. They just got beat by the better team today. GO PACK GO!!! See ya next year Falcons!! And to all those who said there was no way the Packers would win and how they couldn’t understand why so many people couldn’t give the Falcons any respect for being a number one seed……HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FALCLOWNS are losers
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
Number one seed? You kidding me? Saints were the #1 seed and WON a championship last year.. Falclowns are a joke! Loving this….
Matt Flynn
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
Thanks Falcons for sucking so bad I get to get into a playoff game!!!
J-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
Can we tell Blank to sign Nnamdi Asomugha and Champ Bailey NOW!!!!!!!!! And get rid of Michael Jenkins!!!!!!!!
Choco
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
Matty Slush, baby!!! what a joke…
valpo_95
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
Atlanta will be turned into Green Bay south tonight! At least the city will make tons of money on Packer fans!!
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
THIS GAME VERY MUCH REMINDS ME OF THE FALCONS SUPERBOWL GAME VS. DENVER. AT LEAST WE DIDN’T HAVE THE ENTIRE WORLD WATCHING US INT HE SB TO IMPLODE LIKE THIS. GEEEZ.
root4au
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
What’s worse? UGA football or the falcons? Ha……War Eagle!!!!!!!
Where is the momentum shift?
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
Build on the team. Get better defense. Shift into the future.
EmirS.
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
This is so disappointing. I’ve been texting friends and co-workers all night. This is ridicouls. None of us saw this coming. We we’re expecting to beat these guys. Just…speechless.
The Braves, The Thrashers, The Hawks, The Falcons…..
This must be how Cleveland feels every year….
Steakie
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
It’s official we are retiring “Matty Ice” for a new moniker to be determined later. I don’t ever want to hear how this guy is top 5 or 10 or 20 in league.
Justpainful
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
i like william moore. that guy at least brought his game tonight.
Mike "Choke" Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
11:08 pm
Bad game, the team gave me a reason to watch. That is all I ask for. Learned a long time ago, win, lose or draw, it does not effect my life, and my life is good…..Congrats Pack, good game. OUT.
dirty
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
Birds will finish 6 – 10 at best next year after this fiasco……we’ve seen this before
Smyrnoff
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
Troy wants to be a Packer you say?
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
Matt Ryan suffering from late season sore arm, or advanced noodle-itis.
See, early in the season, his arm sometimes approaches mediocre. Especially this year as his attempts have piled up, his arm gets more noodle-y as the year progresses.
Until in the playoffs he is like re-heated Ramen.
Amber Alert
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
LAYED A FREAKIN EGG!!! How you boys love ya MATTY ICE now!! Hell at least Vick has won a Playoff game in FREAKIN GREEN BAY. These MOFOs did not even have to leave home with 2 weeks to rest up!!!
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
To all the trash-talking posters on nola.com this past week – HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JB
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
game over, defense still needs major work!!!
Bobby Houseman
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
Well said, Sham.
OldTimer
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
It takes a man to win a Super Bowl. There are no men on the Falcons.
crabapplejoe
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
And the really funny part is that Clay Matthews had to walk on at USC because “Rivals” gave him a no star ranking and no D-1 school offerred him a scholorship…..LMAO
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
Mark Bradley
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
Much better stuff on my blog, y’all should come on over. I think we should focus on Georgia Tech basketball.
_______________________________________
Your blogs suck – stop begging
jay dubu
January 15th, 2011
11:09 pm
Is Mr. Blank making his way to the sideline tonight?
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:10 pm
GREEN BAY HAS TO LOVE THE FACT THEY WILL BE PLAYING EITHER CHICAGO OR SEATTLE NEXT WEEK. THE ROAD TO THE SB HAS NEVER LOOKED EASIER. WHAT A SORRY YEAR FOR THE FALCONS TO IMPLODE IN THE PLAYOFFS. THE FALCONS COULD HAVE BEEN IN THE SB AGAIN.