LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
dawgs01
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
MATT RYAN will never take us to the superbowl he can not stretch the field and when players are open he hesitates to throw it and ends throwing a jump ball like what happened with jenkins in the end zone when he slipped jenkins was open ryan should have roped it in there instead he padded the ball then threw it a mile high and jenkins had to stop and slip. He looks overmatched just like he did in the fourth quarter against the saints
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
SERIOUSLY WHENS THE LAST TIME A #1 SEEDED TEAM LOST THE FIRST GAME, WAS IT THE PACKERS IN 2007 TO GIANTS
Justpainful
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
@Mike Choke Vick – pretty sure that Joe Montana was in his third season when the 49ers beat the Bengals.
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
THIS IS WHY ATLANTA FINDS IT HARD TO GET BEHIND THE FALCONS. THEY PULL THIS CRAP.
Dilfer was right
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
They finally caught on to the spin move by Rogers! After the tenth time. And then talked trash! Classy
FALCLOWNS are losers
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
Uhmm, you’re still losing, LMAO..who dat!!!!!
FAVRE VICK & SHAUB GONE NOW ITS UP 2 ICE
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
I KEEP TELLING YOU KARMA
opie taylor
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
lloyd, you are correct, The game manager Trent Dilfer I mean melted ice has been exposed again!!
DirtyBirdBrokenWing
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
Wow! Atlanta looked like crap! How in the world did they become the #1 seed? I think it’s funny. I’m in for the Packers to win the Super bowl!
Mike "Choke" Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
Bobby, you go. Don’t cheer them, don’t watch them.
whodatvisiter
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
Where is all of the falcons fans at? are u gonna cry yall bunch of losers.
TNScott
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
The Truth speaks the truth about VanGorder
dawgs01
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
Here comes the dinker and dunker even down by 24
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
TIC TOC…TIC TOC…THE TIME IS TICKING ON THIS WORTHLESS END TO THE FALCON’S SEASON…
old yeller
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
Have to pull for the Pack from here on out to the big game.
sam
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
loss for words. I can’t believe this is happening. Actually, I can. The Falcons are so pathetic. Matt Ryan has no arm
dat_saint
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
WOW!! I guess Falcons do eat crow!! Lol
n.o. kidd
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
What losers, ONE AND DONE, but even worse is the dirty bird fans can’t even stay till the end of the game to cheer their pathetic team.
Anthony
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
Fire Malarky, hire McDaniels. Take the leash off the offense.
dawgs01
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
looked at that weak throw
GETTOFFDABUSS
January 15th, 2011
11:03 pm
hey whodats wasnt it awesome to see all that noise and that pretty see of red to start the game…and to see all that pretty quiet red now from the south division champs
Matt Ryan II
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
Vick sucks…deal wit it!
Marty Rice
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
IMO, the ATL defense didn’t bring their “A” game into this and the Packers D did. Let’s look at the tapes and count all the missed tackles. I hope somebody does. Couple that with Rodgers passing with immunity all night long (he may as well have been playing against his practice defense) and there’s no way our team can win this game. Even when Rodgers gets clobbered from behind he connects for a fifteen yard gain! Matt just gets clobbered and covers up the ball. When Matt made the bad judgment call at the end of the half that resulted in an interception AND TOUCHDOWN (!) that was the game and the season.
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
Holy Jeezus that was an ugly pass to White…was it deflected???
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
It’s matty “ice” because he freezes up!
Chicken Farmer
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
Damn glad we didn’t have 3 weeks to prepare for the Packers! Man, Ryan played like a rookie, our receivers couldn’t get open when it mattered, the defense couldn’t have stopped anyone the way they played tonight and both sides of the ball committed more penalties than they have in any game the whole season. Oh yeah, and in closing, the play calling after it was tied 14 all was the most riduculous I’ve seen from Mularky in any game. Troy Aikman said it best when he said the bottom line is, Green Bay is just a whole lot better team than the Falcons. I don’t know if next year will be any different with the game plans we come up with in big games. Offensively and defensively we sucked tonight. We always come up second best in big games and tonight we were 3rd best as the cheerleaders outshined the football team.
TW
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
There is no way Mark Richt wasn’t on the Falcons’ sideline tonight.
Where is the momentum shift?
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
The Falcon fans should at least
give the players an ovation for
an exciting season.
Whodat D
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
If your team has never won a Superbowl say hey!!!!!!
ATL Born
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
Come on Matty Ice . . . Tony Gonzalez will never know what it feels like to win a playoff game . . . oh shoot, neither do you.
OldTimer
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
The Falcons should request a rape kit.
Marty Rice
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
Why are you still watching? Are you a masochist?
valpo_95
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
Total disrespect by the fans. Falcons have a good season and they can’t stay to support them. Doesn’t really surprise me.
Matt Ryan II
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
AJC.com blog Rocks….AtlantaFalcons.com suck!
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
11:04 pm
I STILL THINK BEARS KILL PACKERS NEXT WEEK
OldTimer
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
Hey!!
Mike "Choke" Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
I am like Ryan, I wanna see the Falcons strap it on an play another one.
the sham
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
@who dat – your cleverness is impeded by your 4th grade grammar skills.
Amber Alert
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
I just sent an amber alert out for Van Gorder, the defense and MATTY ICE!!
Bear Fan
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
I am guessing it never reached in the Dome 117 dB.
SeenThisB4
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
Ah, ha, ha ha ha, ha! One and Done!!
valpo_95
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
Hide your children, hide your women….
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
WELL, THIS GAME CERTAINLY SHOWED US THE THINGS WE LACK.
DebL
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
Having a blast watching the Falcons prove what everyone has known all along-they SUCK!!!!!
Bwahahahahahahahahahaha! Maybe next year…..NOPE!
Hysterical
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
Let’s see, Green Bay has 14 players on IR, Atlanta 1. Atlanta has home field advantage and 2 weeks rest, AND gets blown out! Hysterical! What a bunch of posers. Good news is all you bandwagon jumpers probably still have your receipts so you can return your jerseys.
TNScott's Daddy
January 15th, 2011
11:05 pm
BVG missed at least 6 tackles, including 2 blitzes that our non NFL talent DBs whiffed on. Yea, its the truth. Its BVGs fault Matty Rice laid a turd as well.
dawgs01
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
i have never liked matt ryan not just tonight even when we have won have see alot of weaknesses in his game just like that 3rd and five and we throw a two yard pass
Marty Rice
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
I can’t bear to look… what’s the score, 70-14?
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
Wow, Jenkins no burst at all in trying to get that first down.
Hickory Avenue
January 15th, 2011
11:06 pm
Hey Schulz , AIN’T gonna be no Super Bowl “dance” in the ATL , this year —–HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!!!!