LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
Lofton juked out of his jock by a white boy. Nice.
Billyboy
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
The Ambor alert was regarding something that happen 3 days ago. Comcast is about as late as the Falcons defense showing up.
Steve
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
Here comes another TD for Green Bay!
saints-champs
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
@truth….You need to check our site, because the falcon fans bombarded nola.com, so we are just returning the favor. suck it up!!
whodatvisiter
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
What are the dirty turds going to win a super bowl? NEVER!
Matt Ryan
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
Can someone change the sheets. I think I just wet the bed again.
Whatever
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
Devastating loss, but you have to remember folks its just a football game.
FHZ
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
Don’t expect drastic coaching or player changes…
People respect the record far too much here.
I think that you may see Champ Bailey starting at one CB spot only—if he comes cheap, and that’s it.
I do believe that The Falcons will address WR or TE in the 1st round now…
Don’t expect drastic moves based on emotion from this embarrassment… You will hear or read this soon.
They will be practical, and frugal..
Smyrnoff
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
At least Ryan is not as big a loser as Joe Buck.
indiana falcon
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
lots of empty seats now…i bet Blank left the Dome too
Vick Supporter
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
Mike “Choke” Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
Brady, Sanchez, Rogers, Cutler, Hassleback, Roth are all left…I see a pattern….Why would anyone thing Vick can win a superbowl?
———–
The Packers barely beat my Eagles. We make two FGs that we missed and we beat GB. Falcons are getting blown out after having the #1 seed,lol.
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
WHEN IS THE LAST TIME A #1 SEED WAS 1 AND DONE I CANT REMEMBER
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
NONE AND DONE!!! LOSERS!!!!!
Steve
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
Pretty sad when the visitors fans are all that’s left in your stadium with 8:00 to go in the 4th quarter!
Pacman
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
Looks like we may make it to the Super Bowl! Bears up next.
suffering
January 15th, 2011
10:58 pm
@ Dawg fan: agreed.
Matt Ryan
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
I was hoping to check down again on 3rd and 1. dam gum fumble!
SRF
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
yeah this is just a football game but the players are getting millions to s u c k like this
lloyd
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
Melted ice has been exposed again
Where is the momentum shift?
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
Ooops….. I see, the shift is in GB’s favor.
Nevertheless, Thanks Falcons for an interesting season !
Mike "Choke" Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
Kinda funny, neither Ryan or Flacko can’t take a snap. Can anyone name a QB that has won a superbowl in year 3?
Steve
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
Wow! They held them. The Packers need to get Rogers our of there!
el jefe
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
rise up and get BEAT DOWN! hahaha…looks like the street in front of my house isnt the only place where ICE melted today…
FAVRE VICK & SHAUB GONE NOW ITS UP 2 ICE
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
BRETT FAVRE AND MIKE VICK SOME WHERE LAUGHING THEIR @$$ OFF
opie taylor
January 15th, 2011
10:59 pm
Lofton is a two down linebacker very mediocre stats that occur downfield are like Keith Brookings never impactful and can not cover an offensive lineman. Anyone still thinks Dimitroff is an excellent talent evaluator?
Mark Bradley
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
Much better stuff on my blog, y’all should come on over. I think we should focus on Georgia Tech basketball.
old yeller
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
Where is the real Matt Ryan?
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
THE FALCONS ARE ABOUT TO HAVE 50 LAID ON THEM AT HOME IN THE PLAYOFFS! WOW. WHAT A SAD STATE OF AFFAIRS. NO MATTER HOW MUCH THINGS CHANGE, THEY REALLY STAY THE SAME WITH THESE PRETENDERS!!!
whodatvisiter
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
This is how to lose at home. Saints fans is laughing to death
Not SoHot'Lanta
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
Vick Supporter I am happy that Michael got another break. I am sure he is happy living where you can still place a bet on a dog
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
WOW 45-21
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
NONE AND DONE!!! LOSERS!!!
Matt Ryan
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
I am no Aaron Rodgers. But I am better than Jeff George. Thanks, Bradley. Am I better than Mike Morowski or June Jones. Tonight I played like Chris Miller.
SRF
January 15th, 2011
11:00 pm
why would Favre be laughing ? GB told him to Pi$$ off
Anthony
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
Opie is right.
Our defense blows. The city of Atlanta is afraid to spend money on talent. If they weren’t they would have signed Asomugha.
FAVRE VICK & SHAUB GONE NOW ITS UP 2 ICE
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
WE SHOULD’NT HAVE DONE BRETT AND VICK LIKE WE DID PEOPLE
PabliMorphy
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
45 – 21!!!
At least we lost on the road…
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
NO MATTER HOW YOU DRESS UP A PIG, IT’S STILL A STINKY MESSY PIG.
GETTOFFDABUSS
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
well…at least you guys still have the nfc southdivision championship hats and t-shirts…but since you held them to a field goal (45-21) you still have a chanc…..oh its the 4th quarter never mind
OldTimer
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
The Yankees were right we really do suck.
FHZ
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
Now this is FUNNY!!
emergency alert system
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
The Georgia Highway Patrol is looking for the Falcons defense, They are missing and believed to be in extreme danger! Please contact Arthur Blank if you have any information regarding the missing defense
________________________________________________________________________
They are still on the “bye”.
Having a good time.
Nobody should blame the Ice storm..
lol.
They probably won’t have another chance as a #1 seed in the NFC for another 30 seasons…lol
Tell the truth
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
Gotta give the Pack all the credit- they definitely came to play tonight. They are a dangerous team.
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
Good thing the falcants have that awesome home field advantage….
Yankee Doodle
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
haw Haw HAW –
No Superbowl for YOU, crackers. New England would have made mincemeat out of you anyway, just like Denver did –
but now you don’t even GET there. Maybe they’ll show the Superbowl on a tv at the Waffle House, so you can see what you’re missing.
Losers
TPM
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
Green Bay wanted this game more than Atlanta. GB had the will to win
Mike "Choke" Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
VS, but you forgot your hero threw a bad pic when he could have WON the game, AFTER 10 YEARS IN THE LEAGUE TO LOSE A WILD CARD GAME. I stand by my statement. why would anyone want Vick when you see what it takes to be a SB QB?
Bobby Houseman
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
Yep, the Falcons had a 13-3 regular season record. They were lucky. But, they’re still the Falcons. Losers since 1966 when they began. Losers tonight. They will always be losers. Change coaches, players, and owners, and they’ll still be the Falcons and will still be losers. There’s no changing that. So, I will cheer them on: GO FALCONS!!! That’s right, go somewhere else Falcons, and take Tech and UGA with you. Good riddance.
UGAAHOLE
January 15th, 2011
11:01 pm
birds were my only hope, time to go get drunk
long suffering Falcon Fan
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
Please do not call him Matty “ice” again until he wins a playoff game.
Matt Ryan
January 15th, 2011
11:02 pm
what is my record at home in the playoffs? What is my record this year in big games. Wins.. few. Wet pants. Often.