LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
FAVRE VICK & SHAUB GONE NOW ITS UP 2 ICE
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
MAN WE NEED PATRICK PETERSON
robertussen
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
i hate my team right now
the sham
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
@ Coach BVG – to stop this team, you have to sign a real CB like ASOUMWAHGaslkdfjdlfjs (sp?) and draft a DE that can help John Abraham out, just a little bit! Perhaps UGA’ Houston would do well for us.
In any case, without the pass rush, our DBs were toast tonight. They’ve played above there talent level all year long, but tonight the better team won.
@crabapplejoe – funny! that hurts! but funny!
allen
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
stop turner, get a slight lead and the falcons are roasted. i told you over-confident fools………you do not have an elite quarterback that is capable of winning a game with his arm. one and done…….WHO DAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ALA/ATL Fan
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
Only Vick can come back after being down 21 points in the 4th quarter; here….ain’t gonna happen.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
10:48 pm
PROPOSED TRADE MATTY-ICE FOR KEVIN KOLB
____________________________________
Eagles are not that stupid. Maybe a straight up trade for CHOKE and a bag of footballs maybe
whodatvisiter
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
You Suck. u dont deserve respect.
Steve
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
Ok. I can see that.
Where is the momentum shift?
January 15th, 2011
10:52 pm
I have yet to see a momentum shift
in the Falcons favor.
Justpainful
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
@Steve – excluding the time Warner was with Arizona, that is a pretty bad franchise. No trophies for them either. None in St. Louis. One win as the Chicago Cardinals in something like 1947.
ATL Born
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
FHZ . . .well said.
SRF
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
Abraham is like 50 – is he going to retire after this beatdown ?
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
PHILLY FAN, gave up 3 or 7 points on the endzone pick, and the back breaker pick 6 INT.
I know, our defense has been putrid. But Ryan has crapped the bed both times under the big playoff spotlight.
Sure, Kolb hasn’t proven anything either…but I’m speaking mainly out of frustration.
Neither team makes that trade I don’t think. What would Ryan do trying to throw to Jackson and Maclin, LOL.
dawgs01
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
4 yard throw why
Vick Supporter
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
.Matt “CHOKE” Ryan
January 15th, 2011
10:50 pm
Vick Supporter
Why are the AJC and delusional Falcant fans such poor losers?
————————
I don’t know. They should be used to losing. Ryan 0-2 in the playoffs. He can’t make the big throws to stretch the field
Darth Wingnut
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
Comcast just stopped the game for a damn alert.
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
10:53 pm
Total yards 405 to 190 in favor of GB!
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
GAME OVER
south eastern chumps and drunks
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
hey birds, WELCOME TO MY WORLD
GETTOFFDABUSS
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
FUUUUMMMMMBLLLLLLLEEEEEE!!!!!brahahahahaha!!!!!
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
AND A FUMBLE!!
Billyboy
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
Only Comcast can do worse than the Falcons
Tired of Losing Falcon!
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
W T F !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
birds suck
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
Falcons suck and will always suck ! They lack disipline and playmakers. No defense, no pass rush, no nothing but losers is all I see!!!! Falcons WILL always SUCK!!!!!
emergency alert system
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
The Georgia Highway Patrol is looking for the Falcons defense, They are missing and believed to be in extreme danger! Please contact Arthur Blank if you have any information regarding the missing defense.
FAVRE VICK & SHAUB GONE NOW ITS UP 2 ICE
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
NOODLEARM
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
WTF, McClure was in his pass blocking stance. WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Whatever
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
It was a good season falcons fans. Look like the Falcons are built for playoff failure.
Steve
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
Good call justpainful. The Cardinals are it. But the Falcons have to be pretty close.
PHILLY FAN IN TEMECULA CA
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
BALLGAME LETS GET READY FOR THE PHILLIES
Vick Supporter
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
Ryan doesn’t have the arm to throw to DeSean Jackson,lol
Dilfer was right
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
Painfull but true. That “one bad pass” was a season killer. Matty “stink on ice” in his two playoff games.
Aubrey
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
DAWGS could beat the Falcons tonight.
ATL123
January 15th, 2011
10:55 pm
Please make this game go away.
dawgs01
January 15th, 2011
10:55 pm
matt ryan sucks plain and simple he sucks we had a chance to get back in this game he sucks
Falcons Are No One
January 15th, 2011
10:55 pm
NONE AND DONE! LOSERS!
Anthony
January 15th, 2011
10:55 pm
Our cornerbacks are worse than awful. Ohhh woooow Grimes can jump high!!!! Yea… he blows.
Tired of Losing Falcon!
January 15th, 2011
10:55 pm
Now this is FUNNY!!
emergency alert system
January 15th, 2011
10:54 pm
The Georgia Highway Patrol is looking for the Falcons defense, They are missing and believed to be in extreme danger! Please contact Arthur Blank if you have any information regarding the missing defense
SRF
January 15th, 2011
10:55 pm
49 coming
south eastern chumps and drunks
January 15th, 2011
10:55 pm
UGA TAKES THE ALL IN STATE CHUMPS AWARD, BUT FALCONS YOU ARE DEFINITELY FIRST RUNNER UP AND BEAT OUT GT BY A MILE
Uh, the Comcast message was an Amber Alert
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
You moron.
FAVRE VICK & SHAUB GONE NOW ITS UP 2 ICE
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
MATT RYAN IS REALLY OVERRATED! THE SECOND COMING OF PEYTON MANNING INSTEAD OF TOM BRADY
Mike "Choke" Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
Brady, Sanchez, Rogers, Cutler, Hassleback, Roth are all left…I see a pattern….Why would anyone thing Vick can win a superbowl?
Vick Supporter
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
Matt Ryan fumble. Matt Ryan curses. He’s got a little fire,lol
Steakie
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
The offense hasn’t done dog squeeze. Defense? Defense? We have never had a defense. Clay Matthews is making up for his son getting his arse kicked by AUBURN
the sham
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
In case anyone wants to blame mistakes on this game… I think it hurt, but we didn’t have the fire power to stand toe to toe with them once they learned how to run the ball…
It’s a pitiful way to end the season, but it is over. 4 months til the draft and this franchise building continues…
SRF
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
Georgia Tech could score on the atl D
OldTimer
January 15th, 2011
10:56 pm
Matt Ryan is no ladies man, he strictly a backstreet boy.
mark in mid-town
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
Why bother trying a sneak or run for first down in that situation. They’re down by 21 points. Stupid. Even if they made first down, they would have burned another 30 – 45 seconds off clock.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
10:57 pm
I’m waiting for Arthur Blank to make his stroll on the sideline and kick CHOKE in the butt