LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
chipontheroad birdsrus
January 15th, 2011
5:18 pm
Suggs just did to r berger what he tried to do to ga peach he got molled
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
5:19 pm
Chef
Wild about ROYAL and only 43 yrs old.
D A DoubleU G
January 15th, 2011
5:19 pm
I have a strong feeling the Falcons will come up short tonight……
But this is the South, therefore when my Dawgs are up or down, I still have about 99% more emotion invested in them than the NFL.
Go Falcons, but if you lose…. we really don’t care that much. Unles you live south of I-20… if you know what I mean.
chipontheroad birdsrus
January 15th, 2011
5:22 pm
ravens14 steelers7 end 1st
Raven:who that rappin tappin on my cellar door? Quoth the Falcon nevermore
Packers leery about replays at Georgia Dome – ProFootballTalk
January 15th, 2011
5:23 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
5:24 pm
POAD: More proof of being ready.
D A DoubleU G
January 15th, 2011
5:26 pm
And Justin Houston just decided to make Dawg Nation wait 3 weeks to announce he is going pro.
Thanks for nothing. You are too small for NFL, and will disappear within 3 years.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:26 pm
Hey D A Double I live south of I-20 – what do you mean? I mean, some of us don’t speak the primitive language known as Dawgish.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
5:27 pm
Chef Tim — What’s “cross” blogging? … The only previous times both of us blogged was when we had live concurrent blogs on Georgia and Tech during that game.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
5:28 pm
POAD — Thanks for making me nauseous.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
5:28 pm
DA double
You are suppsed to support your old dawgs.
D A DoubleU G
January 15th, 2011
5:28 pm
Ross L…..
point blank….. the white people in Metro Atl are College Fans, and the african american population are NFL fans, and most african americans live south of I-20.
If you take that as being racist, i am sorry for you….. but it’s just the way it is.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
5:29 pm
Jeff
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Can you still keep your meal down?
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
5:30 pm
D A DoubleU G — I don’t see Justin Houston as turning into an NFL star but I think he can have a solid career. He was one of the few players on that defense who could make plays. He’ll certainly go in first 2 rounds, possibly even a late first.
1eyedJack
January 15th, 2011
5:30 pm
Gotta make Rodgers the Pack’s leading rusher again.
FAVRE VICK & SHAUB GONE NOW ITS UP 2 ICE
January 15th, 2011
5:31 pm
34-31 FALCONS
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
5:32 pm
Jeff, you commenting on Mark’s, him on yours…Cross blogging.
blazerdawg
January 15th, 2011
5:32 pm
DA – usually agree with your posts, but as a white, Dawg & Falcon fan, with many friends of comparable interests, all residing north of I-20, I think you are off on this one.
D A DoubleU G
January 15th, 2011
5:32 pm
Back to this NFL prima donna thing…….
I just don’t get it. Maybe New Orleans should pick up and move up North, because they are the only “Southern” (more like French) city to have full support of their NFL team.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:33 pm
D A Double, we are Tech people who inhabit the 20th century morally and physically, no offense dude.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:34 pm
21st even, not the 18th
D A DoubleU G
January 15th, 2011
5:35 pm
I may be way wrong…. that’s why opinions are so great.
But you cannot convince me for one second that Atlanta will ever be a “NFL city”, when you have the heart of the SEC thumping so loudly. And since every other SEC school has no big, productive city near it, all those grads move here, bringing their pride with them. Then there are always the couple hundred Georgia Tech fans.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:35 pm
I am 47 years old. I have been watching the Falcons since 1976. Barely missed a game. I am so JACKED for this one it is downright silly. I am supposed to be more mature than this.
My wife keeps feeding me, baking things. I think she is trying to make me sleepy so I will quit pacing around our house. I actually mopped the kitchen just to take the edge off.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:35 pm
This game is getting away from Pittsburgh. I thought that fumble by Rothweiler was a tuck-rule situation.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:37 pm
You are wrong D. A. I have seen it back in the day. That spirit is starting to come back. There are waaaaayyyyy more old school Falcon fans that will come back more and more as this team continues to excell
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:37 pm
Well D A, just leave and let us NFL fans enjoy the game OK? My Dad and I bled red for these Birds. Sure wish he was here to tell you to POAD for your canine way of thinking.
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
5:37 pm
4 1 day can the word “race” just be left off the blog?
drmaryb (*_*)
January 15th, 2011
5:39 pm
Just take care of the ball in the red zone, no turn overs from Matt nor Mike and we will score. I also predict a score on first possession (TD!).
Special Teams – Weems should manage great starting field position.
Matt Bryant will be Money!
Defense should produce 2 – 3 take aways!
This game will be won on defense an special teams and time of possession!
____________________________
27 – 10 Falcons! Let’s Go!
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:39 pm
Ross L. Are you the Ross I complimented yesterday on here. That was a great post you did.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:40 pm
Would someone please drive over to my house and shoot me with one of those tranquilizer guns that they used to have on Wild Kingdom. I am starting to scare the cat.
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
5:41 pm
Key to the game: JPW.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:42 pm
PreyDawg, yep, I grew up south of I-20 and used to go fishing with my Dad – we’d have 2 radios, one on Al Ciraldo and one on Munson
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
5:42 pm
“Chef” Tim — Uh . . . no.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:43 pm
PreyDawg – ROFL!!!! Just get him blasted on catnip and lock yourself in the garage until game time
blazerdawg
January 15th, 2011
5:44 pm
DA – I’ll give it a shot – I think Atlanta is a great NFL town and the leading college football town. The NFL will never overtake CFB in ATL, but the number of Falcon season ticket holders is comparable to Dawgs season ticket holders without the students. Also, the TV ratings for Falcons games and Dawgs games in the Atlanta market is exactly the same (usually about 400,000 HH for an average game), and both are typically higher than any sunbelt NFL city.
I think you are right that the Falcons fan base is a bit different – usually native Atlantan/north Georgian, a bit rowdier than other ATL fan bases (despite media/talk show portrayals), but I do not think that being an exceptional CFB town prevents ATL from being a great Falcons/NFL town.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:44 pm
The last time I felt like this was 1980, when my Dad was my current age
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:46 pm
Ross, Funny you said that. I feel the same. I absolutely DIED as a kid when we lost to Dallas after having that lead. That aint happenin today BABY
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:46 pm
Watchin the DAWGS while I type. They are red hot.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:47 pm
I idolized Bartkowski back in those days. Wish I could see him somwhere and get his autograph.
Van Brocklin
January 15th, 2011
5:48 pm
The terrible towels are falling apart.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:48 pm
Schultz. Were you watching any coverage earlier. Marshall Faulk said repeatedly on NFL network that the Falcons were scared of Green Bay.
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
5:48 pm
Page hits count, Jeff. Nuff said.
So, who will the “Chef” choose to patronize?
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
5:49 pm
Probably Jeff, just as demented.
D-Man
January 15th, 2011
5:51 pm
On m way to my 1st Falcon playoff game EVER and I am TOO AMPED!! GO FALCONS!!
LET’S GET IT!!!
idot
January 15th, 2011
5:52 pm
Falcons win by ten.
Ross L not Ross B
January 15th, 2011
5:53 pm
I’ve never seen the Steelers melt down like this – they are leaderless at the moment. They need to call a time out and regroup.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:53 pm
D-Man Good Grief man!!! Get thy self to the Dome and tailgate. What are you doing still at home???
Lesa
January 15th, 2011
5:55 pm
PreyDawg, I’m right there with ya. Been watching the Falcons since the 1978 season, when I was 14. I remember that loss to the Cowboys in the 1980 playoffs like it was yesterday. I was utterly heartbroken. Still makes me sad to think about it. I too am getting antsy. I wish game time would hurry and get here. The anticipation is killing me!!!!
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:55 pm
Ross, Did you see my post above about Faulk? What are your thoughts there. I seem to recall the last time he brought his behind to the Dome. I was there. 47-17 comes to mind.
PreyDawg
January 15th, 2011
5:57 pm
Now Lesa….you know you are too young to remember that….wink wink.
Yeah. I am beyond geeked. I actually have to go make a speech somewhere. I am going to be talking so fast I will sound like an auctioneer.