LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance
John Abraham and the Falcons celebrated after a 20-17 win over the Packers Nov. 28 at the Georgia Dome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Win tonight. Go to the Super Bowl. So sayeth I. (Sorry. I saw, “The King’s Speech” last night and got carried away with the whole English thing.)
Most believe the Falcons and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC. They just happened to be meeting in the conference semifinals. I fully expect the winner of this game to beat the winner of Sunday’s Chicago-Seattle semi. So winning today could mean a trip to Dallas.
It has been nearly two weeks since the Falcons last played — a lopsided home win over Carolina. It has been only six days since Green Bay played — last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia in the wild card game. Logic says the Falcons will be rested and the Packers will be beat up. (Remember, this is a team that also had to scramble down the stretch and win its last two regular season games just to make the playoffs.) What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it.
Is Green Bay a better team? When healthy and at full strength, probably. But neither of those two are the case right now. The Packers lost running back Ryan Grant in the season opener and generally haven’t been able to run the ball this season, last week’s win over the Eagles notwithstanding (seldom-used rookie James Starks rushed for 123 yards).
The Falcons’ keys are fairly obvious and I touched on a couple of them during the week. But here they are:
– Get running back Michael Turner going. Turner has been good this year but not consistent. Green Bay’s defense this season ranked fifth against the pass but only 18th against the run, and Turner rushed for a 110 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in Nov. If he can duplicate that feat, it helps quarterback Matt Ryan. Which leads to . . .
– As a I wrote earlier in the week, Ryan has shown he can win games in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons are not at their best if they’re a pass-dominated offense. They need balance. Ryan has excelled this season in clutch situations and threw a career-low nine interceptions with a career-high 28 touchdowns. That stems from making good choices. Assuming that continues tonight, the Falcons will be fine.
– Defensive end John Abraham has had one of the best seasons of his career with 13 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception, despite the backdrop of his mother battling lymphoma. The defense needs to get pressure on Rodgers and move him off the spot (to use a football phrase). Abraham is the key to that. He’ll be opposed by Packers left tackle Chad Clifton.
That’s it for now, I’ll be here blogging all game. Before I go, for what it’s worth, here are some odds from the online sports book Bodog (for entertainment purposes only, of course). The Falcons are anywhere from a 1½-to-3-point favorite.
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV New England Patriots 8/5 Atlanta Falcons 11/2 Green Bay Packers 11/2 Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1 Chicago Bears 8/1 Baltimore Ravens 9/1 New York Jets 12/1 Seattle Seahawks 40/1 Odds to win the 2011 AFC New England Patriots 5/7 Pittsburgh Steelers 3/1 Baltimore Ravens 5/1 New York Jets 15/2 Odds to win the 2011 NFC Atlanta Falcons 8/5 Chicago Bears 2/1 Green Bay Packers 11/5 Seattle Seahawks 14/1 ♦What will be the Exact Super Bowl XLV Matchup? New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons 13/4 New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears 4/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers 8/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears 11/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 14/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears 16/1 New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers 17/4 Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers 18/1 New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 20/1 New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 22/1 New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 22/1 New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers 25/1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks 55/1 Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks 80/1 New York Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks 100/1 ♦
Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 290.5 Total Rushing Yards – James Starks Over/Under 50.5 Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings Over/Under 85.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan Over /Under 240.5 Total Rushing Yards – Michael Turner Over/Under 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Roddy White Over/Under 80.5 ♦
♦
Falcons blogs from the week:
– Matt Ryan’s notes, intangibles driving his success
– Falcons’ Abraham excelling, even with thoughts on ill mother
– Digi-Blog goes to Falcons’ camp (and there’s no Flowery Branches)
– Poll time: Who’s most important Falcons player against Packers?
– Saints gone, Vick gone and Falcons ready to defend turf
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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2,080 comments Add your comment
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:19 pm
First! GO FALCONS!
ijonathan
January 15th, 2011
3:20 pm
First??
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:21 pm
Jeff, Do you have a score prediction for the game tonight? I think it will be 24-21 Falcons.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
3:23 pm
Chillin on Paradise Island — I could see that score. It’s right on the over/under of 45.5.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
3:24 pm
By the way: fourth! (and fifth).
Freshmaker
January 15th, 2011
3:24 pm
45th!! Goooo Falcons! Will be there in section 333 and cheering loudly.
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:25 pm
I hope its a blow out. Like what the Saints did to the Cardinals in the playoffs last year. But the Falcons and blow out don’t go together.
dcbl
January 15th, 2011
3:26 pm
Damn it Jeff, I know we got a few extra weeks of Weekend Predictions this year based on the popularity of the Sack Shultz promo.
I just want to say this, failing to give a prediction on a Falcons game this important is kind of like having a losing record at UGA – unacceptable…
Just saying… By the way, I have not sent you my check for my % of this year’s winnings. BUT – the check is in the mail! And I love you. And I won’t…wait a minute – this is a family blog – right?
So what’s the prediction of who wins & covers???
Mid Town Joe
January 15th, 2011
3:27 pm
I love our chances. Should be an exciting game. Keep up the great work, Jeff. Watching the game on my HDTV 47″ Vizio, being broadcast to my set in 1080P.
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:27 pm
I wish i could go, but im broke. Ive already spent way too much on the 2 games that I went to this season.
GSU Eagle 91
January 15th, 2011
3:28 pm
I believe the winner of the game will go to the Super Bowl…Jeff, you and I are in agreement!
I just want it to be our Falcons…
The city of Atlanta needs a champion so badly…….The Braves and Hawks are not going to win their league titles anytime soon, and the Thrashers are a long way off…
So that leaves the Falcons….
Beat the Packers! 24-20…..
Scott
January 15th, 2011
3:29 pm
Can’t wait Jeff! Ill be in 334 making noise.
Go Falcons
drmaryb (*_*)
January 15th, 2011
3:30 pm
I predict a Falcons win to advance to the conference finals and win that too:
Tonight’s Score: 27 – 10
Let’s Go!
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:31 pm
Did any of yall happen to be near the Hudson Grille in mid town last night? I cant believe the Packers fans actually had a pep really right here in OUR city.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 15th, 2011
3:32 pm
I would take the under. 45.5 seems a little high to me. This feels like a 21-20 game.
CB
January 15th, 2011
3:34 pm
We need a very loud and obnoxious crowd tonight; otherwise home field advantage is lost. Our defense has been playing awesome; hope the offensive coaching and playing can catch up. I’m worried about the offensive line run blocking and offensive play calling.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
3:34 pm
Packers 31
Falcants 10
CHOKE 3 picks
Maybe next year guys
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
3:34 pm
DCBL — Sorry, but Predix has been put to bed. But maybe if Falcons make it to SB we can roll out a special edition.
OK, here goes: Same score as last time — Falcons 20-17.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
3:36 pm
Thanks, Mid Town. What’s a “P” as in 1080? I just know how to plug it in and turn it on.
chalkdawg4
January 15th, 2011
3:36 pm
Had to sell my tickets but I will be there in spirit. Rise Up Falcons!!!!
mountain_jim
January 15th, 2011
3:37 pm
I don’t want this exciting and enjoyable season to end tonight…. Go Falcons!
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:37 pm
Hey CHOKE, when does Mike Vick play? I cant find the Eagles game on my guide. Maybe i need to call comcast and have them come fix my cable.
Advantages
January 15th, 2011
3:37 pm
Funny no one talks about Gonzo. He was a big part of the win here and I believe it will be the case again today.
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
3:37 pm
Matt “Choke” Ryan — I am shocked — SHOCKED! — that you’re picking the Packers (How was that? Pick up on the sarcasm?)
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
3:39 pm
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:37 pm
Hey CHOKE, when does Mike Vick play? I cant find the Eagles game on my guide. Maybe i need to call comcast and have them come fix my cable.
___________________________________________
He will be playing in Honolulu starting the pro bowl while CHOKE carries his clip board
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:41 pm
Haha Jeff you sounded like Sheldon from The Big Bang Theory when talking about sarcasm.
"Chef" Tim Dix
January 15th, 2011
3:41 pm
The Chef is ready!
But, I can’t find my cup!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
3:43 pm
Jeff Schultz
January 15th, 2011
3:37 pm
Matt “Choke” Ryan — I am shocked — SHOCKED! — that you’re picking the Packers (How was that? Pick up on the sarcasm?)
_____________________________________________-
What can I say Jeff? I can’t find it in myself to respect anyone that stays in college for 5 seasons on a 4 year scholarship
I was being generous – the spread is 45.5. I could have said Packers 35-10
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 15th, 2011
3:45 pm
If the Falcants lose to they (they will), next season would put them at 7 whole seasons since their last playoff win.
Are you guys really happy with that pattern?
Love Mark Richt-Hate Coach Richt
January 15th, 2011
3:46 pm
Falcons by 2 touchdowns. The dome will be rocking. Hey Choke – can I march with you on Monday? Are there more than 3 words to “We Shall Overcome” ?
Falcons2010
January 15th, 2011
3:47 pm
“What we can’t predict is whether the week off will affect the Falcons’ timing, but I doubt it”
I still remember the playoffs from 2 years ago when the Steelers beat the Cardinals. That year, 3 of the 4 Number 1 seeds went down in their first games. With any luck though the Falcons will be like the Number 1 Seed that didn’t lose (aka the Super Bowl champ Steelers). Though last year both NFC #1 Seeds won … handily
Either way ff there are any timing/layoff issues we should be able to see them on their first possession of the game.
chem
January 15th, 2011
3:47 pm
Matt “CHOKE” Ryan is a bored dork seeking attention.
Steve
January 15th, 2011
3:48 pm
Jeff how do you and Mark decide who will do the live blog at big games like this? Arm wrestle?
Falcons2010
January 15th, 2011
3:48 pm
“I can’t find it in myself to respect anyone that stays in college for 5 seasons on a 4 year scholarship”
Choke probably more respects those who didn’t go to college and haven’t amounted to anything in their life! Much himself ….
mac
January 15th, 2011
3:49 pm
The spread is not 45.5 dummy, that’s the over/ under. Speaking of choke, who ended their season by throwing a pic in the endzone last week?
Mike "Choke" Vick aka Mr Charlie
January 15th, 2011
3:52 pm
So Choke picked the Pack, since is record is 3-13 on he season on picking the winner in falcons game, and 0-3 in the last Philly game, I think that is a good sign.
Eric C.
January 15th, 2011
3:53 pm
Yep, agree this is for the NFC championship.
My biggest hope is that the Packers offense operates with the illusion that they actually have a running game…e.g, 23 carries and 39 yds for Starks with several 3 & outs in the first half.
An Adult
January 15th, 2011
3:53 pm
Geez, Choke, can’t blog on a Eagles or Saints blog? Why not? Oh yeah, they are losers, like you who must spend some unbelievable amount of time on-line trashing whatever it is you don’t like. Get a life. Maybe if your mother would let you out of your basement bedroom, you might grow up sometime and experience the real world. Your two dimensional blog world is pretty small. I guess you have to have something to do until summer comes when you can open up your lemonade stand.
P Rose
January 15th, 2011
3:55 pm
Choke, I’m sure you’re real proud of your loverboy Vick! He will look sooo good starting in the Pro Bowl. And since individual accomplishments mean so much more to you than team accomplishments do, I know you’d rather your hero be in the Pro Bowl than the Super Bowl, so you must be in heaven. But remember, Matt won’t be holding Mike’s clipboard because he won’t be there — Super Bowl players are exempt from the Pro Bowl.
An Adult
January 15th, 2011
3:55 pm
Also Choke, maybe this spring in middle school you could get some help with typing and grammar. It could pay off for you when you grow up
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
3:55 pm
Spud Webb of the NFL is going to get a pick-6 toda.
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
3:58 pm
Who would that be POAD?
Royal Marshall | Video, Torrent, Downloads | Poodlesnatcher
January 15th, 2011
4:01 pm
[...] LIVE BLOG: If Falcons win, it could be Super Bowl dance | Jeff Schultz – Jeff Schultz [...]
D A DoubleU G
January 15th, 2011
4:01 pm
Anybody know what time the Saints play tomorrow???
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Sea Dat!!!!!!
Arno
January 15th, 2011
4:02 pm
Most boring 13-3 team vs. most dangerous 10-6 team. Barring freakish breakdowns, most boring team does the job.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 15th, 2011
4:03 pm
Grimes who else?
kreedham
January 15th, 2011
4:04 pm
I believe the #! and #2 picks will prevail…next week
ATL v CHI
NE v PIT
DIT
January 15th, 2011
4:04 pm
@D A DoubleU G
I think the same time the Tampa Bucs play…………………. NEXT SEASON!
Ross L not Ross P
January 15th, 2011
4:06 pm
The game will depend on who is better, Abe or Matthews. I don’t care for that college boy. This is a man’s game. Abe is a man. Game over. Low scoring, I’ll say 20-13 Falcons.
Chillin on Paradise Island
January 15th, 2011
4:06 pm
Jets are gonna shock the world and make it out of the AFC.