Odds say: Falcons over Vick and Patriots to win Super Bowl

These two quarterbacks apparently will meet again in Dallas. And guess who's going to win?

"So Matt. I've got the directions to Dallas. But I'm a little confused about the results."

Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles will come to Atlanta for the NFC championship game. And the Falcons will win.

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will win the AFC title and go to Dallas to the face the Falcons in the Super Bowl. And the Falcons will win.

So it is written.

In percentages.

On a website.

There is a website called PlayoffStatus.com, which I had never heard of before today, but it just became one of my favorite bookmarks because it gave me an easy blog. The site breaks down almost every sport — NFL, NBA, NHL, NASCAR, Formula 1, soccer, even college hockey — and gives percentages on each team’s playoff chances.

The list that jumped out at me was the NFL Postseason Probabilities.

The site, which bases percentages on past results and remaining strength of schedule, says the Falcons have a 91 percent chance to make the playoffs. That’s not a surprise. But it gets better.

They have a 75 percent chance to win at least one playoff game, a 46 percent chance to get to the NFC championship, a 26 percent chance to get to the Super Bowl and a 14 percent chance to win it all. Those percentages are higher than any of the other 31 NFL teams.

If the percentages play out as PlayoffStatus.com sees it, the Falcons will defeat Vick and the Eagles –which is the next highest ranked NFC team — for the conference championship. In the AFC, New England would defeat the New York Jets.

Then at the Super Bowl, the Falcons would defeat the Patriots, based on their current 14 percent title chances, which is two points higher than New England (12).

So. Matt Ryan over Michael Vick followed by Matt Ryan over Tom Brady?

Would this city ever recover from that hangover?

Here are the top 12 ranked teams, with Super Bowl and respective conference title chances:

Team       Super     NFC/AFC

Falcons     14         26

Patriots     12         23

Jets            12         22

Eagles        7          13

Giants        6          13

Ravens      6          13

Steelers     6          13

Packers     6          12

Bears         6           11

Colts          5           11

Saints        5           9

Bucs          4           8

Now, I realize this is all for fun. Percentages will change every week. But it’s something interesting to look at every week.

For what its worth, I’m trying to get in contact with the site’s administrator. If I can, I’ll let you know if he owns Falcons’ season tickets. Or if his name is Arthur Blank.

Earlier posts

Dan Uggla trade is latest example of Wren’s quick moves

Bill Curry goes back to Tuscaloosa as a changed man

So I can get Georgia State and 42½ vs. Alabama? Hmmm…

Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC and Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC

392 comments Add your comment

vmguru

November 17th, 2010
2:52 pm

First. And you know by mentioning Vick you are gonna get a lot of comments about him!

FEAR THE TALON

November 17th, 2010
2:53 pm

JUST LIKE THE FALCONS…………1ST!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FEAR THE TALON

November 17th, 2010
2:54 pm

MAYBE SOME MERIT TO YOUR STORY JEFF……..2ND!!!!!!!!!!

Tony

November 17th, 2010
3:04 pm

Works for me!. It is very important the Falcons get home field throughout the playoffs. They really don’t want to go up north in January in freezing temperatures trying to win a playoff game. Keeping everything at home will dramatically increase the likelihood of going to Dallas.

Fish Bisch

November 17th, 2010
3:05 pm

Falconsbaby

November 17th, 2010
3:07 pm

Lets bring back the Dirty Bird! and this time we’ll win it all!!!!

DIRTY BIRD NATION!

Brian

November 17th, 2010
3:08 pm

Go Falcons!!!!! 17-2…. It has a nice ring to it…….

JM

November 17th, 2010
3:09 pm

As someone who grew up a Philly fan before moving to Atlanta, I hope this doesn’t happen. One of my teams needs to be in the Super Bowl but i don’t want them to face each other to get there. First off, Vick is playing too well and will beat the Falcons. And if the Falcons were to win, the Vick haters would never let it die. So hopefully, at least for me, some other team knocks either of them out.

Go Falcons, Go Eagles, Go Hawks…and to round out all my teams – Mets please act like a big league team next year.

Jeff Schultz

November 17th, 2010
3:10 pm

“Tim” — Can I not mention Michael Vick’s name without you trying to start a grease fire? Please.

JSS

November 17th, 2010
3:12 pm

Thank goodness they play games on the field and not on a actuarial table! Probabilities are better used on playing the actual amount of points that might be scored. Only merit to this that there are 7 more games to be played and there are 6 team within a game of being tied for the best record. This is typical Atlanta thinking, the NFL is not the BCS. Wait till game 12 to start that stuff…

FalconsFan

November 17th, 2010
3:12 pm

Maybe if this scenario plays itself out, all the so called Falcon fans who wear Vick jerseys and cheer for Philly will go away for good, or jump on the Matty Ice bandwagon.(probably not, wrong color uniform)

Dawglasville

November 17th, 2010
3:14 pm

Mike’s story could be something straight out of Hollywood. I hope he stays humble, continues to win, and that the Falcons finally bring Atlanta a second championship. Home field advantage is everything for us.

REAL TALKER

November 17th, 2010
3:15 pm

Vick lies, Lohan lies, numbers don’t lie( I hope they don’t lie in this case )

Rich T

November 17th, 2010
3:15 pm

I’d be the drunkest guy on Peachtree.

Just The Facts

November 17th, 2010
3:16 pm

See Jeff when you work hard, put forth a little effort, get off the UGA/Richt witch hunt you can write a decent article that’s positive and worth reading. Nice job for a change.

REAL TALKER

November 17th, 2010
3:17 pm

@ Rich T cause I’d buy everybody cold one’s

mountain_jim

November 17th, 2010
3:18 pm

I think Philly is the best team in NFC right now, but their schedule is much tougher remaining, so Falcons should be favored for home-field in NFC game. Having home field is the only reason I give Falcons a shot at beating Philly right now, they outcoached and outschemed us badly even without Vick playing.

Hopefully our coaches learned something from that game.

Chattyp

November 17th, 2010
3:20 pm

Seeing how the eagles already beat the falcons (easily) with Kolb at QB, I think i would take them any day of the week with Vick at the helm

JROLL1

November 17th, 2010
3:24 pm

AS MUCH AS I’D LIKE TO SEE THAT, THE FALCONS HAVE NO ANSWER FOR THE OVERALL TEAM SPEED THE EAGLES BRING…..

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by kellen owenby, Kaiser Gerhardt, Dr, Greg Eisenman, Bobby Myers and others. Bobby Myers said: RT @JeffSchultzAJC: Odds say: Falcons over Vick and Patriots to win Super Bowl http://bit.ly/9Rr4Yl [...]

Eagle

November 17th, 2010
3:32 pm

Enter your comments here

Eagle

November 17th, 2010
3:32 pm

While Michael Vick was screaming toward the sky, a black pit bull named Mel was standing quietly by a door.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-plaschke-20101117,0,5163298.column

FAVRE SHAUB & VICK GONE,NOW UP 2 MATTY

November 17th, 2010
3:32 pm

JEFF WE COULD’NT BEAT PHILLY WITH THEIR BACKUP QB,WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT WE CAN BEAT THEM WITH VICK?

THE FALCONS WILL NOT BEAT VICK!

ATLSTEVE

November 17th, 2010
3:34 pm

Brian…It has a nice RING to it…like a Super Bowl ring perhaps!

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by ajc sports editor, Adriano Gomez, Sean Kennedy, derrick johnson, Vic Webb and others. Vic Webb said: RT @ajcsportseditor: Vick to face Falcons? Oddsmakers say it will happen in NFC title game. http://bit.ly/cDemm5 heck yea it will! [...]

keevsus

November 17th, 2010
3:40 pm

I’d rather lose with matt ryan than win with a dirtbag like vick.

PreyDawg

November 17th, 2010
3:41 pm

mountain Jim- Clearly the coaches HAVE learned from that game. Look how much more often we have thrown deep since then. The offense is much more vertical which has opened up other things.

We dont match up well with Philly AT ALL. I have dreamed of an NFC Championship game since I was a kid. It would turn into a nightmare if we have to play Vick. The media will make it totally about him and it will suddenly become the Falcons fault for all that he “went through”.

It would become a circus like our first game back in New Orleans was. The Falcons would be less than second fiddle and would “owe” Vick a win.

Please, football fates. Dont let it be!!

vmguru

November 17th, 2010
3:42 pm

Jeff – were you calling me “Tim” for some reason? Or was that from a deleted comment? I am not now or ever have been a “Tim” – not even close – unless someone has been using my nickname.

SeenThisB4

November 17th, 2010
3:48 pm

Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, ………

GEAUX SAINTS! OUR TIME!!

SOUTH GA DAWG FAN

November 17th, 2010
3:52 pm

its still to early to predict anything but go falcons, and lets face it if new orleans can win a superbowl anyone can.

GSUEagle

November 17th, 2010
3:53 pm

While Michael Vick was screaming toward the sky, a black pit bull named Mel was standing quietly by a door.

On this night, like many other nights, Mel was waiting for his owners to take him outside, but he couldn’t alert them with a bark. He doesn’t bark. He won’t bark. The bark has been beaten out of him.

While Michael Vick was running for glory, Mel was cowering toward a wall.

Every time the 4-year-old dog meets a stranger, he goes into convulsions. He staggers back into a wall for protection. He lowers his face and tries to hide. New faces are not new friends, but old terrors.

Vick is better than Ryan

November 17th, 2010
3:55 pm

Jeff your article is wrong. Vick will lead the eagles to the super bowl while ryan will lose in the first round again

skip

November 17th, 2010
3:58 pm

I don’t care about the computer geeks……what say the boys in Vegas?

PreyDawg

November 17th, 2010
3:59 pm

Even with Monday night, I am not confident Vick is now better than Ryan. Ryan has gone through his reads for 3 years. Vick did it for one game. A game when the Redskins D was ticked off at the McNabb situation to start with. That being said, Vick is playing very well this year. Monday night was a thing of beauty. Still dont want him coming to the Dome though. Not one bit. This is coming from a guy who once spent about 500 bucks on Vick Jersey’s, fathead, shoes, etc.

Vick is better than Ryan

November 17th, 2010
4:01 pm

@PreyDawg

Your arguement is weak. The redskins D was ticked off??? Get out of here with that. Vick played a great game and a game we will never see from happy feet ryan

SeenThisB4

November 17th, 2010
4:04 pm

South Ga.: ….and if New Orleans can win a Super Bowl, why can’t they repeat?!

GEAUX SAINTS! OUR TIME!!

Who Dat Nation

November 17th, 2010
4:05 pm

I speak for all the Who Dat Nation when I say that the Saints vs Eagles NFC Title Game will be the best outcome.

Vain Jangling

November 17th, 2010
4:09 pm

Yeah, the Falcons are looking good on paper, but their wins aren’t exactly the result of bloody slug fests. They’ve dominated no one. Plus, they don’t match up good with the Eagles. And without Roddy White, they’re average at best. That’s a heavy load for one man to carry all the way to the Super Bowl. In short, don’t bet the mortgage payment! . . . But . . . But . . . But doesn’t Tom Brady look positively dreamy in your stock photo? . . . What a pretty, pretty man he is. . . . Hey, Wait a minute . . . Is this a sports column or a Calvin Klein catalog?

vmguru

November 17th, 2010
4:09 pm

“Who Dats” look more like “Was Dats” this year. For whatever reason the Saints just don’t look that dangerous this year. Could change of course but they need to play better to repeat.

Ryan is better than Vick

November 17th, 2010
4:11 pm

Matt Ryan will take us so much farther than Vick ever did. Vick has been surprisingly terrific this year, but once he gets a new big money contract, he will go back to being the QB he used to be in Atlanta. Matt Ryan is a winner, and we are always in a position to win the game with him leading the team. The next time the Falcons play the Eagles, we’ll be ready for their trick plays and we’ll pound them into the ground!

Tell it like it is

November 17th, 2010
4:12 pm

I think the eagles are the team to beat at this time,they have team speed to burn.the Gaints falcons and saints are all one step behine the eagles with that speed.The falcons just need to win home field,that would make a big differance in the playoffs.Go falcons….since 1966.

Frozen Rope

November 17th, 2010
4:14 pm

@ SeenThis

The Aints cant repeat because they suck and they cant beat the Falcons,, bahahahaha,, killing you isnt it…

All I'm Saying...

November 17th, 2010
4:16 pm

Falcons are the cat’s meow right now but that can change quickly if we lose games we should win (i.e. St. Louis this weekend). Let’s start tripping on Super Bowl fantasies after we take care of ‘bidness’ on the field.

We have to beat Carolina twice and St. Louis cuz that’s what good teams with mature leaders do and then we need to knock off Tampa Bay again.

Seattle is a dangerous ‘trap’ game wedged between our second Carolina meeting and our end of the season shootout with NO.

And both NO and Green Bay could take us down so beating Panthers twice along with Tampa Bay is critical so that at a minimum we’d should get to 11 and 5. 12 and 4 should be the goal to secure the #1 seed and a bye.

LET’S GO FALCONS!

Frozen Rope

November 17th, 2010
4:17 pm

If the Falcons can hold onto the best record I dont think anyone can beat them at home,,,

All I'm Saying...

November 17th, 2010
4:18 pm

And until Matt Ryan wins a playoff game (and I think this is the year), no one can say he’s better than Vick. Plus Vick took us to the NFC Championship game so until that is matched, Ryan fans (I’m in that group) need to keep their fingers crossed.

LET’S GO FALCONS!

GTMustang

November 17th, 2010
4:19 pm

All I am saying….

Ryan got us back to back winning seasons which proves more consistency than Vick’s fluke playoff win.

Kelvin

November 17th, 2010
4:23 pm

Like I said before, if you guys want to root for Vick fine, but why are you hating on Matt Ryan and the Falcons? You act as though the Falcons did him wrong instead of the other way around. Vick is back and played a great game the other night granted, but I am Falcons fan and Matty Ice is my QB now. Ryan is going to be a star in this league and will win multiple Super Bowls starting this season.

Come on

November 17th, 2010
4:25 pm

Gotta find some mo “D”…

Just Groovy

November 17th, 2010
4:26 pm

Jeff, any idea when the season ticket holders will get their invoices for the playoffs?

Come on

November 17th, 2010
4:26 pm

Gotta find so mo “D”. Then we can talk about getting to the big one…