Will Braves trade Jurrjens to strengthen outfield?
Giving up this home run to Washington pitcher Livan Hernandez in September was one of Jair Jurrjens' lowlights.
Braves general manager Frank Wren went into the winter last offseason determined to trade a starting pitcher in hopes of acquiring some help for the Braves’ offensively-challenged lineup. The result was the oft-lampooned Javier Vazquez-for-Melky Cabrera trade.
The only difference this winter is the Braves are coming off a postseason berth — so maybe they won’t appear quite as desperate. But an unpopular move could be forthcoming: Are you ready to say goodbye to Jair Jurrjens?
I know — dealing Jurrjens seems unfathomable. Why would Wren trade his team’s young, inexpensive and talented starting pitcher? Simple: If he doesn’t, it’s going to significantly limit his options this winter and certainly would force him to get real creative with the team’s budget.
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♦ 1.) The Braves’ payroll this season was approximately $84 million. It’s not expected to increase much, if at all. Owner Liberty Media’s Board of Directors, as you might’ve noticed, did not arrange a field trip to Turner Field for the postseason. Nobody handed out red foam tomahawks at stockholders’ meetings. In short, they don’t care. So don’t expect the club to be free to pursue a mega-dollar free agent like Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford.
♦ 2.) Chipper Jones’ intention to hold off on retirement and rehab from a major knee surgery — he seems more determined than ever to come back and is a big fan of new manager Fredi Gonzalez — means his $13 million salary will remain on the books. Closer Billy Wagner ($7 million) falls off the payroll. So does big-money late-season acquisition Derrek Lee ($13 million, of which the Braves paid only a fraction).
But here comes the painful part: The Braves still have 2011 obligations to outfielder Nate McLouth ($6.5 million) and pitcher Kenshin Kawakami ($6.67 million) — both of whom were demoted to Triple-A Gwinnett during the season.
♦ 3.) The top three starters in the rotation are Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe. Lowe finished the season strong and was outstanding in two postseason starts (three earned runs, 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, despite two losses). He is perceived as far more important to the success of this team than he was after last season. Also, even if the Braves wanted to move Lowe, the fact he is owed $30 million over the next two years makes that possibility unlikely.
♦ 4.) Unless Wren is willing to deal touted prospects, something he’s generally been averse to, that means he’ll either have to shop for low-budget free agents again or deal from his position of strength: starting pitching. Jurrjens is only 24 but his long-term future in Atlanta is uncertain, given that his agent is Scott Boras. Jurrjens also struggled this season with a hamstring and knee injuries. He dropped from 34 starts, 25 quality starts (allowing three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings), a 14-10 record and a 2.60 ERA in 2009 to 20 starts, 10 quality starts, 7-6 and a 4.64 ERA this season.
But of all the Braves’ tradable assets, Jurrjens is the most likely to fetch something decent in return. It’s either that or fill available starting jobs in left and center field on the cheap again.
After Hudson, Hanson and Lowe, the Braves’ next two spots would go to some combination of Kawakami (if he is kept and not paid to walk away), Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and a low-budget free agent (back-end-of-the-rotation starters aren’t difficult to find). Kris Medlen will miss most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Wren obviously moved quickly with his new managerial hire. But that move was kind of a slam dunk: Fredi Gonzalez was unemployed and living in Marietta. The roster fix won’t be as easy — and somebody may have to leave.
(I’ll leave you with this: Columbus, Ga., native and St. Louis center field Colby Rasmus clashed this season with manager Tony LaRussa and requested a trade two months ago. Would you be willing to part with Jurrjens if he was part of a Rasmus trade, or do you think the Braves can do better than Rasmus? And yes: I’m just throwing this against the wall. Below are all the pitchers who started games for the Braves this season, listed in order of quality starts.)
Pitcher QS (GS) W-L ERA K BB
Tim Hudson 25 (34) 17-9 2.83 139 74
Tommy Hanson 19 (34) 10-11 3.33 173 56
Derek Lowe 15 (33) 16-12 4.00 136 61
Jair Jurrjens 10 (20) 7-6 4.64 86 42
Kris Medlen 7 (14) 6-2 3.68 83 21
Kenshin Kawakami 7 (16) 1-10 5.15 59 32
Mike Minor 3 (8) 3-2 5.98 43 11
Brandon Beachy 0 (3) 0-2 3.00 15 7
♦
EARLIER TODAY:
♦ Gonzalez keeps Pendleton but not as hitting coach (UPDATED)
♦ Fredi Gonzalez is Braves’ perfect choice to replace Cox
♦ Challenge of Cox’s replacement will be recreating chemistry
♦
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553 comments Add your comment
Andy
October 14th, 2010
11:37 am
No way that Werth gets the same as Crawford. Crawford is superior defensively, steals bases at a far superior rate to Werth, and was only eight home runs behind Werth in 2010 (despite not playing in quite the HR park Werth did). Werth has only three years of being an everyday starter as well. Werth should make slightly more than Jason Bay did last year. Maybe something in the range of 5 years, $90 million at most.
Obee
October 14th, 2010
11:37 am
I still think Schafer has a future with the Braves, if they don’t give up on him. He’s young and obviously has talent. He has the potential to surprise a lot of people at spring training next year. I’m pulling for him.
Abnerish
October 14th, 2010
11:39 am
I would think Vazquez will be released by the Yanks after this year. We could snag him to be our 5th starter, if we don’t think Minor or Beachy will work out. I think there’s still life in his arm, he just doesn’t do well as a Yankee.
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Nut Job
October 14th, 2010
11:40 am
Giving up Jurrjens wouldn’t be the end of the world. Medlin will be back eventually. Minor is going to be a good one, he just got tired at the end of the year being his first full year in pro ball. Beachy turned into a good one. He is solid and has a great mound presence. We could fill those two guys in until Medlin returns.
I hope we can deal McClouth to someone who sees potential in him. KK will have to be cut. Nobody is going to pay him the kind of money we did. We have to do something with the OF obviously. I can’t stomach seeing Melky out there anymore. He is terrible.
Daniel
October 14th, 2010
11:40 am
Someone above said we have a wealth of young arms in Beachy, Minor, and Tehran.
With Medlen coming back, package KK with Minor and get a bigger bat. Keep Beachy over Minor. Beachy looked way better in his 2 starts than Minor did in his 5.
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
11:43 am
I would move JJ for Matt Kemp or Ryan Braun straight up. The next tier below that would be Marlin Byrd or Cory Hart which would have to include other players to balance things out.
Andy
October 14th, 2010
11:44 am
Braverman, the idea of trading your top pitching prospect for a 1/2 year rental never works. Even if the player (Dunn, in this case) is incredible for the remainder of the season. See 1987, Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. Perfect example.
Cmon Man
October 14th, 2010
11:45 am
Couldn’t we trade KK and/or McLouth to the Royals? They always seem to want our rejects.
GSU Eagle 91
October 14th, 2010
11:45 am
I really hope Chipper retires, and for several reasons. First, he is done as an impact player. By that I mean he will NOT play a full season, and what can he do to help the Braves by hitting .260 with 9 HR’s and 60 rbi..That is all he can give us…His 13 million dollar salary would be better spent on a free agent outfielder..
Is Carl Crawford for TB a free agent? How about Jason Wurth?
Braverman
October 14th, 2010
11:45 am
Schafer needs a new organization to thrive. He needs to be in a place where he does not feel embarrassed by his past. We don’t have any viable position player options perhaps other than Freddie at this point. So its either wade through the next 3 years of mediocrity until lower prospects develop, or get off the toilet and sign some FA’s or trade for some position players. If I am paying Lowe and Hudson huge chunks of change I want a return on my investment with a ring. If you arent going for a ring, then unload every piece you can and save some cash for when you feel the time is right to ramp up. I hate mediocrity. I would rather know my team is not trying to win than to be sold this fake effort of signing Troy Glaus,Derek Lee and Rick Ankiel. What a joke Wren played on Atlantans. Either rebuild for the future palying your young guys or take some shots to win now. Don’t sit on the fence with these joke moves and act like you are trying. I am no GM and don’t pretend I know what they know, but I know enough to see that signing has-beens like those are not legitimately trying to win anything, its hoping for a miracle.
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
11:46 am
Vasquez is a free agent so there is no release involved. I doubt he would want to go back to NYC and I would take him back on a 1 year deal. But he is probably looking at his last contract and I suspect he would want more than 1 year.
steve whitmire
October 14th, 2010
11:47 am
CARL CRAWFORD makes $10 million a year and Tampa Bay is considering cutting payroll, Wagner made $6 and if we let Lee, Glaus, melky and Ankiel go, surely we could swing that kind of salary, put Freeman at first with Hinske his backup, get Chipper back, I don’t care what anyone says he will be decent on defense and hit 18-20 homers, get Heyward to quit taking so many pitches and be more of a free swinger, and we would have a decent team.
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
11:49 am
Crawford does not want to play CF. If he did he could get more $$. Either way, I do not see Braves going after top tier free agents. Not their style. Not saying I agree. Just do not see it happening.
Steve-o
October 14th, 2010
11:51 am
Cmon Man,
Aren’t we the ones who took on KC’s rejects – Ankiel and Farnsworth?
PDOG
October 14th, 2010
11:51 am
Bring back Frenchy, maybe a new hitting coach could fix him and Nate. I would prefer to keep the young talent and wait for the big salaries to come off the books in a year or two then go after a free agent when there will be more then just Crawford and Werth.
Braverman
October 14th, 2010
11:55 am
Andy, your point is valid and has plenty of examples to back it up. I agree getting rental player is not optimum, my point however is that you cannot hoard your entire farm system while watching the big league club consistently under-perform. For every John Smoltz top prospect type that went big you have a David Nied, Melvin Nieves, Tony Tarasco, and a host of others. It seemed like Schuerholtz had a better sense of which ones would pan out, and which ones are hype. The truth is most dont have any clue, so sacrificing seasons, like we will do in 2011 if we dont get some outfielders, is playing roulette. Again my point is we know from his major league performance Jair is a keeper. The rest are anyone’s guess so if you are playing from strength, your pitchers, dont give up one that has proven himself to be an asset.
Obee
October 14th, 2010
11:56 am
Braverman:
Why do you think Schafer is embarrassed about his past? He had an injury and hasn’t fully recovered. Why should he be embarrassed about that?
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
11:56 am
Mags Ordenez will probably be available as Detroit will not exercise their option for 2011. I think he has something left and will be less expensive than Werth or Crawford. I would love to see an OF of Ordenez (LF), Kemp (CF), & Heyward (RF).
Simon
October 14th, 2010
11:56 am
We have ALOT of pitching depth, I admit that. I love Hudson, Lowe is valuable for late season and post season pushes and Hanson is coming along nicely. That being said I also like what I saw from Minor, Beachy and Medlen.
I am a huge JJ fan, and would hate to see him go. I think he’s got great young stuff and he’s a great story of a trade gone right. Shipping Edgar Renteria to Detroit for him was a genius move. Here’s my concern..
Last year, Vazquez was #3 in Cy Young voting, and all we got for him was Melky Cabrera…a platoon LF. If thats the best hitter a top five Cy Young pitcher brought in, what will JJ bring with teams most likely focusing too much on his down year and not enough on his up years (he had two previous seasons of ERA in the 2-3 range and if we had hitting, hes a 15+ game winner, maybe even 20.)
Prospects are just that, prospects, and some dont pan out. Rasmus might be a nice fit, but Id be ok seeing some prospects go and letting JJ and Hanson be the future of the Braves for the next 10 years. What about Garret Jones in Pitts? The guy hits around .260, 20+ homers and can play LF or 1B? And those hitting numbers were in a Pittsburgh lineup. Put him sandwiched between Heyward, Chipper and McCann and he’ll see better pitches to hit, maybe creep that average up to the .280-.290 range he had two years ago. We could use the pop in the lineup.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
11:57 am
I am still holding out hope for Schafer too. He has played so little the last couple of years with the suspension and the injury. It would be senseless to let him go now for nothing.
Still gotta pursue every outfield possibility.
I just looked at Braun’s contract, 5 yrs left very favorable for the Brewers. That’s a loooong shot at best. I wonder why the Giants GM thought trading for him was a possibility.
Mitchell
October 14th, 2010
11:57 am
I love JJ.
He is my boy. He’s pitched his ass of for us since day one and has been far more consistent than Tommy or D-Lowe I would like to point out.
Braverman
October 14th, 2010
11:58 am
Also, if Chipper really loves this organization he will retire and let us use that cash on someone more likely to help us win. I applaud his career here and was a huge fan of his, just like I was for Dale Murphy, but when you are no longer a top player you don’t deserve top money. Maybe take a pay cut if you really want to stay and help.
Braverman
October 14th, 2010
12:03 pm
Obee, I was referring the still mysterious drug test issue, and his relatively poor showing in his first season. I believe he is a talent for sure, but confidence is a big part of seeing talent come to fruition and I just wonder if his confidence will forever be limited as he has to look into the same faces to which he had to explain whatever happened in that drug test situation. I don’t harbor him any ill-will, I just think it takes so much to be a top tier player that maybe being away from the organization you disappointed might give you more breathing room. Maybe its all behind him and he flourishes next year.
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
12:04 pm
Simon, Vasquez had an 11M salary for 2010 on the last year of his deal. The high salary and only 1 year left limited his trade value. JJ would still be under control for at least another 2-3 years at a smaller salary so that should increase his trade value to something more than the milk dud.
Simon
October 14th, 2010
12:04 pm
I like Chipper. Its good to have wise veterans out there but I am concerned with the injuries piling up. I assume Infante will be back next year and perhaps play every third or fourth day to rest Chipper. His average is dropping but he draws walks. Even hitting /260 he was top ten in OBP in the NL, and top 20 in MLB. The key is not making an out, get on base and let someone else drive you in.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the future for 3B is after Chipper? Any prospects coming along? I saw the Mets rumor mill may have them blowing up the team…I doubt it would ever happen (like a Ryan Braun deal) but if Wright lands on the open market Id be interested…
GTSteve
October 14th, 2010
12:06 pm
Is Schafer playing winter ball or is he still injured
Simon
October 14th, 2010
12:06 pm
Heisenberg…good point. Also, we did get Dunn in the deal from the Yanks and that bolstered a young and dominant bullpen…I just wonder though how much help is really out there for pitching that JJ would need to be moved. To be honest, the Cardinals may not even want JJ since they already have two CY Young candidates in and Garcia as number 3.
bostonbravo
October 14th, 2010
12:09 pm
trade ankiel, conrad, mclouth, farnsworth, cabrera, hinske, glaus, kawakami for 7 fungo bats & a Bud Light.
Simon
October 14th, 2010
12:09 pm
Im still a Garrett Jones fan. In 2009 he hit 21 homers, batted .293 in 82 games. This year was a down year average wise, which may be in part to the “year of the pitcher” or also in part to the Pirates young lineup not giving protection. I dont think Jones would cost us a JJ, probably get him on the cheaper side, two lower level prospects, and hes only making around 500K from what I can tell.
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
12:11 pm
The Dodgers & Brewers are desperate enough for pitching and have budget issues of their own. They also have the bats to trade. It makes so much sense it will probably not happen. There is something about Rasmus that I do not get overly excited about even though he would be an upgrade over all but 1 of current crop of OF we have.
Nate McClouth and Melky Cabrera
October 14th, 2010
12:11 pm
What are you guys complaining about? We will patrol the outfield next year with no problem.
PDOG
October 14th, 2010
12:12 pm
The Braves have two prospects at third in A ball, Joe Leonard who they drafted this year could be the real deal. Next year will tell for him, that is why if Chipper can play one more year it would be great.
Simon
October 14th, 2010
12:14 pm
Ok but even if they are in need of pitching, Milwaukee doesnt trade Ryan Braun. ESPECIALLY, if they are about to lose Prince Fielder, Braun is the face of the franchise, future of the whole team. Hes not moving this year. He’ll probably be there until the last year of his contract then they ship him for 3-4 prospects assuming he continues to develop.
As for the Dodgers, with the divorce case pending, I doubt major personnel moves get done and I also doubt Kemp is really that available. They have some pitching out in LA, they’ll probably try to keep Lilly and raid free agency to fill out the rest of the rotation.
Kentavo
October 14th, 2010
12:14 pm
I know he’s a lefty and I know his defense is suspect, but I say Adam Dunn. His 40 homers will make a world of difference in the lineup and his last deal was $10 mil per year.
extremus
October 14th, 2010
12:16 pm
Mr. Schultz,
Your Point 1 is EXACTLY why corporate ownerships are a very bad thing not only for the Braves but all of pro sports. The only thing the guys in Denver at Liberty Media are likely to cheer about is if the tax write-off continues to help them turn a profit with the team. After that I look for them to drop the Braves like a bad habit, which is EXACTLY what fans of this team havie been hoping and waiting anxiously for. I had been under the impression that the tax write-off ended this year and that Liberty might then sell the team, but apparently there’s a year to go at least. Words fail me as to how disappointing that is to hear; the Braves are at a critical juncture in their history right now, and the last thing they need is to be hamstrung by an uncaring ownership.
As for Point 2, Chipper may indeed stay…for another year or two. It’s a no brainer that the Braves’ top prospect in 2011 needs to be the best third baseman available in the draft, even if it means trading up to get him. As for Kawkami, that’s a no brainer too; pay him off and send him packing.
Point 4 (which I was unaware of) makes your case for trading Jurrjens for a solid bat very logical. If I had my druthers nobody in baseball would be willing to deal with Scott Boras. Working within the system or not, he is the face of what has ruined MLB’s financial and competitive balance. If Jurrjens is a Boras client he won’t be around in a few years anyway; get what you can for him now.
Stuart
October 14th, 2010
12:16 pm
Trading JJ is not the answer. If you are able to package KK and McLouth for essentially nothing, then that could free up some salary space to sign an outfielder (which likely won’t happen). But, I’d even use Lowe’s recent success and try to use that as bait and trade him before trading JJ. This would free up much more salary space and an outfielder can be signed (if not traded for in the Lowe deal).
Simon
October 14th, 2010
12:16 pm
Dunn cant really play LF field, hes bad enough defensively at 1B. Freeman gets 1B next year, which by the way, I didnt see much in his limited time in the Bigs to make me feel too confident about that one. Anyone else get that feeling?
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
12:17 pm
I would not argue those points at all Simon. But I would love to see us kick the tires just in case.
Falconian
October 14th, 2010
12:19 pm
They are not going to trade Jurrjens.
N
October 14th, 2010
12:20 pm
Remember, going into this season JJ was your top 1 or 2 pitcher on a very good staff. Most of us had him ahead of Hudson and the rest.
extremus
October 14th, 2010
12:21 pm
Simon,
Freeman, from what I understand, typically started off slowly at each level coming up through the Braves’ system; his numbers at Gwinnett to start the year were unimpressive as well. But by July or August he was a force to be reckoned with.
Give him (and Heyward) time (and a competent hitting instructor). They’re likely going to be very good for a long time.
N
October 14th, 2010
12:21 pm
Werth didn’t hit 30 homers in Philly which is very hitter friendly so I am not sure he is worth the dollars he will get and the years. Check out how Jason Bay did this year.
Simon
October 14th, 2010
12:22 pm
Oh def kick the tires on it. I hope all options are explored. After 5 years of no post season it was nice to be at the dance again, even if were not the prom queen. this team has alot in place for now and for years the come. Core positions are locked down at catcher, 2B, RF and we got 3B (even if people are tired of chipper) and SS with Gonzalez. Since coming back from AAA McLouth hit the ball extremely well. I was at the Marlins game in Florida where he was robbed of a stinging single by Uggla and a Grand Slam by Maybin.
The pitching staff is in place with or without JJ and the bullpen is young and fierce with Venters, Kimbrel, Dunn and Moylan. Get O’Flaherty back and its all rounded out nice. I think LF is the big question. Id like to see Infante, Hinske and even Cabrera and Conrad come back as bench players, they hit big in big situations (put his errors aside, Conrad hit some monster homers in key times.)
Just to put it out there…we need a bat…if contract talks fail in Florida…Id like to visit an Uggla deal, and move Prado to SS, have Ugglas 30 HR, 100 RBI at 2B. Then, you can find a “journey” LF who has speed…this team lacks a base stealer, so if our LF isnt the power house hitter…get me some speed to turn walks and singles into doubles with stolen bases.
Warren Spahn
October 14th, 2010
12:23 pm
An honest observer would conclude that Werth is arrogant and sullen.
His treatment of young fans is intolerable.
He wouldn’t be a positive addition for the Braves..
Please management- no Werth.
Idiot Bloggers
October 14th, 2010
12:26 pm
things that are NOT happening:
Trading D lowe. All the guy does is go out and start EVERY game. never benn on the Dl in 14 years.
Signing Carl Crawford. He is a left handed bat. The Braves need a big righty stick in center or left and simply cannot allow opposing managers to load up on our left handed batters.
Larry M
October 14th, 2010
12:26 pm
@ Simon – you cannot draw any sort of conclusions about FF based on his grand total of 24 AB’s in the majors after his callup. Come on. Look at his AAA numbers – he is the real deal and will be given the 1B job to lose in spring training. He is our 1B next year absent something drastic.
Your analysis of our chances of landing Braun and Kemp are spot on, however. No way the Braves land either of those guys unless we trade JJ plus someone else. Not happening, folks.
Other than being LH, Rasmus fits the mold for what the Braves like to trade for: young, high upside, cheap for several years, good speed and RBI potential. He is like what they THOUGHT they were getting when they traded for McLouth a couple of years ago….
No one is going to take on the full salaries of KK and McLouth in trade, stop kidding yourselves. Why would someone do that when they know we are desperate to unload the bad deals? At the very least the Braves are going to have to eat a good deal of the money on both of them.
Also, those of you suggesting Chipper should take a paycut – do you know anything about baseball whatsoever? That is prohibited under the CBA – the union will not permit a player to restructure a contract to take LESS money. Now, he could restructure it to spread the money out, as long as he makes as much or more in the long run. But that doesn’t really help the Braves much.
I’m waiting for someone to suggest we try and trade for Pujols. Please get real, people. The Braves are not going to trade for Braun or Kemp, they are not going to sign Crawford. Have you not been paying attention the past 10 years?
Braverman
October 14th, 2010
12:26 pm
Freeman didn’t show too well but the sample size is way too small to make any conclusions yet, so he will get the position if he does anything in spring, or probably even if he stinks up Disney World. What I would perhaps like to see is the final inevitable move for Chipper from 3rd to First. Chipper will not play everyday especially early, and while you can argue its taking him away from his strength and weakening the defense on the other side, I think having Infante and Prado in the lineup everyday is worth that risk. He could share time with Freeman to protect his health and take some pressure off the kid. But of course most will argue if Freeman is here he plays everyday or its a waste for him to be here. I just know that it will be easier to deal with the frequent visits to the DL for Chipper if he is at first rather than 3rd where it would mean Infante sits.
Heisenberg
October 14th, 2010
12:26 pm
Uggla would be real nice to have. He is not fond of his diva SS teammate and may not want to sign long term. If we could get him though I would rather convert him to LF. His bat is an upgrade but defense at 2B is so-so.
N8
October 14th, 2010
12:27 pm
Congrats Jeff, you nailed it. I suggested moving him last winter with the emergence of Medlen (and the assumption – the wrong one – that KK would be better in 2010), but in the end, the Braves really didn’t need JJJ to survice the playoff hunt.
Should have done it last year when stock was sky high. But the odds of him staying due to signing with Boras (and the fact that Wren has younger studs coming up), are minimal at best. Unless he does a total end-around Boras. But why would he do that? He just switched to him.
Kid is looking to get paid, and that payday is NOT going to come from the Braves.
All summer long, people told me I was a fool. Glad there’s another fool out there getting paid to write about the Braves that sees the writing on the wall.