Will Braves trade Jurrjens to strengthen outfield?
Giving up this home run to Washington pitcher Livan Hernandez in September was one of Jair Jurrjens' lowlights.
Braves general manager Frank Wren went into the winter last offseason determined to trade a starting pitcher in hopes of acquiring some help for the Braves’ offensively-challenged lineup. The result was the oft-lampooned Javier Vazquez-for-Melky Cabrera trade.
The only difference this winter is the Braves are coming off a postseason berth — so maybe they won’t appear quite as desperate. But an unpopular move could be forthcoming: Are you ready to say goodbye to Jair Jurrjens?
I know — dealing Jurrjens seems unfathomable. Why would Wren trade his team’s young, inexpensive and talented starting pitcher? Simple: If he doesn’t, it’s going to significantly limit his options this winter and certainly would force him to get real creative with the team’s budget.
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♦ 1.) The Braves’ payroll this season was approximately $84 million. It’s not expected to increase much, if at all. Owner Liberty Media’s Board of Directors, as you might’ve noticed, did not arrange a field trip to Turner Field for the postseason. Nobody handed out red foam tomahawks at stockholders’ meetings. In short, they don’t care. So don’t expect the club to be free to pursue a mega-dollar free agent like Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford.
♦ 2.) Chipper Jones’ intention to hold off on retirement and rehab from a major knee surgery — he seems more determined than ever to come back and is a big fan of new manager Fredi Gonzalez — means his $13 million salary will remain on the books. Closer Billy Wagner ($7 million) falls off the payroll. So does big-money late-season acquisition Derrek Lee ($13 million, of which the Braves paid only a fraction).
But here comes the painful part: The Braves still have 2011 obligations to outfielder Nate McLouth ($6.5 million) and pitcher Kenshin Kawakami ($6.67 million) — both of whom were demoted to Triple-A Gwinnett during the season.
♦ 3.) The top three starters in the rotation are Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe. Lowe finished the season strong and was outstanding in two postseason starts (three earned runs, 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, despite two losses). He is perceived as far more important to the success of this team than he was after last season. Also, even if the Braves wanted to move Lowe, the fact he is owed $30 million over the next two years makes that possibility unlikely.
♦ 4.) Unless Wren is willing to deal touted prospects, something he’s generally been averse to, that means he’ll either have to shop for low-budget free agents again or deal from his position of strength: starting pitching. Jurrjens is only 24 but his long-term future in Atlanta is uncertain, given that his agent is Scott Boras. Jurrjens also struggled this season with a hamstring and knee injuries. He dropped from 34 starts, 25 quality starts (allowing three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings), a 14-10 record and a 2.60 ERA in 2009 to 20 starts, 10 quality starts, 7-6 and a 4.64 ERA this season.
But of all the Braves’ tradable assets, Jurrjens is the most likely to fetch something decent in return. It’s either that or fill available starting jobs in left and center field on the cheap again.
After Hudson, Hanson and Lowe, the Braves’ next two spots would go to some combination of Kawakami (if he is kept and not paid to walk away), Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and a low-budget free agent (back-end-of-the-rotation starters aren’t difficult to find). Kris Medlen will miss most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Wren obviously moved quickly with his new managerial hire. But that move was kind of a slam dunk: Fredi Gonzalez was unemployed and living in Marietta. The roster fix won’t be as easy — and somebody may have to leave.
(I’ll leave you with this: Columbus, Ga., native and St. Louis center field Colby Rasmus clashed this season with manager Tony LaRussa and requested a trade two months ago. Would you be willing to part with Jurrjens if he was part of a Rasmus trade, or do you think the Braves can do better than Rasmus? And yes: I’m just throwing this against the wall. Below are all the pitchers who started games for the Braves this season, listed in order of quality starts.)
Pitcher QS (GS) W-L ERA K BB
Tim Hudson 25 (34) 17-9 2.83 139 74
Tommy Hanson 19 (34) 10-11 3.33 173 56
Derek Lowe 15 (33) 16-12 4.00 136 61
Jair Jurrjens 10 (20) 7-6 4.64 86 42
Kris Medlen 7 (14) 6-2 3.68 83 21
Kenshin Kawakami 7 (16) 1-10 5.15 59 32
Mike Minor 3 (8) 3-2 5.98 43 11
Brandon Beachy 0 (3) 0-2 3.00 15 7
♦
EARLIER TODAY:
♦ Gonzalez keeps Pendleton but not as hitting coach (UPDATED)
♦ Fredi Gonzalez is Braves’ perfect choice to replace Cox
♦ Challenge of Cox’s replacement will be recreating chemistry
♦
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553 comments Add your comment
GTSteve
October 14th, 2010
10:34 am
I think they could get decent return for JJ, but I don’t think the Braves need to go into the season with Minor and Beachy in the rotation. I think KK could be a good #5 with any run support, the Braves would have to also think that to trade JJ
Lowcountry Bulldawg
October 14th, 2010
10:35 am
Look Derek Lowe’s value as of today is at its highest since 2004. Absorb 10 million of his salary, and it puts him at 2yrs. 20 million. Move Lowe for outfield help. Keep JJ as his value is at an alltime low.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:39 am
Angels ($92.5MM) – Peter Gammons suggested last month that signing Crawford will be the Angels’ top priority this winter. They figure to be strong bidders.
Michael
October 14th, 2010
10:40 am
Are you kidding me ? birth ? cant believe the grammar and spelling mistakes in these online columns.
“The only difference this winter is the Braves are coming off a postseason birth — so maybe they won’t appear quite as desperate.”
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:40 am
“MLB Trade Rumors” said it would take 7yrs and 140 mil
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:43 am
I think the Braves could trade Lowe for prospects and not absorb any payroll.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:44 am
Michael did you notice my descent instead of decent?
JeanE
October 14th, 2010
10:50 am
First of all, we are not getting Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford. Not happening. Too expensive for this team and their owners. We were so close, if Chipper and/or Martin had been healthy, I think we would’ve beat the Giants. So, why trade JJ? You don’t get rid of good young pitching. Although I will agree he looks a little chunky and out of shape. And I agree, we have several players on the large side. I hope Fredi does institute a better conditioning program! What we really need is an upgrade in CF. I don’t know how we’re going to get anyone to take Nate off our hands, though. We have a righthanded bat in MattE D. And he’s cheap. I would not get rid of either JJ or D-Lowe. Pitching is paramount. We were a couple of injuries short of postseason success. And I for one, am happy Chipper is coming back, unlike some people.
Tony
October 14th, 2010
10:50 am
P ROSE get your outfielders CORRECT. That was not Carl Crawford, that was B. J. Upton. I know they are both African-American, but c’mon dude.
P Rose
October 14th, 2010
10:52 am
Tony – was it BJ? My bad.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:54 am
We got enough pitching depth to trade a pitcher. If its Lowe then we could afford Werth.
Michael
October 14th, 2010
10:54 am
Ted M….no I stopped reading the article after the “birth”…..and do not like JS’s columns much anyway.
Larry M
October 14th, 2010
10:54 am
If the Cardinals are stupid enough to trade us Rasmus for JJ, we should jump on that in a New York minute. Rasmus is the real deal, would come pretty cheap at least for a few years, and has some real long term potential.
Those of you worrying about losing JJ – why? We have more than enough talent to fill out the rotation. Worst-case without JJ: Lowe, Hudson, Hanson, Kawakami, Minor/Beachy. Sounds pretty good to me. We can’t afford to just eat KK’s contract.
When Lowe and KK are gone, you fill out your rotation with Hudson, Hanson, Minor, Medlen, Beachy or any number of our talented minor leaguers.
Folks, we are fine on pitching and should strongly consider trading JJ. We cannot survive another year of an OF rotation of Cabrera, McLouth, Diaz, Ankiel.
Coach13
October 14th, 2010
10:55 am
I would definitely not trade away any of the pitching prospects. Hudson and Lowe don’t have that many good years left and we’ll need some guys to step in to help Hanson.
Unfortunately JJ has the best trade value AND is a Boras client which pretty much means we won’t be able to afford him in a couple of years.
That being said, if we are going to trade JJ we better get a quality OF who makes us better. I’m not interested in trading Jurrjens for some aging OF who is going to hit 15 HR and platoon with someone else.
Chief Nock A Homa
October 14th, 2010
10:55 am
Wouldn’t it be reasonable to think that D Lowe would be more marketable this year???
If we can find a suitor for Lowe with him coming off a good year overall and his strong closing, and pick up even just a good prospect or two, it would free up $15 million to go get a big bat for the outfield…
Problem solved…. And, without losing JJ….
joe
October 14th, 2010
10:56 am
Dumb article.
MiamiJacket
October 14th, 2010
10:57 am
I think you are wrong about Mclouth. He has a buy out of $1.5 million I believe. The following is a list of payroll coming off the books next year and it is pretty substantial.
Mclouth $5 million
Glaus $4 million
Saito $3 million
Wagner $7 million
KK $6 million ? Probably will request a release and try his luck back in Japan if his only other option is playing in Gwinnett, didn’t seem happy about demotion last year
Chipper $13 million I doubt his pride is going to allow him to sit on the bench behind Prado next year, my bet is he retires middle of next year after his rehab is completed
Even without the two wildcards of KK and Chipper, that’s still $20 million coming off the books next year. With KK and Chipper, it’s $40 million or half our total payroll last year. We’re not going to need to trade any starting pitchers for a bat. We’ve already got enough money to go after Dunn, Werth, or Crawford. What we need to do is trade one of the young guys in AA for Dan Uggla because you know the Marlins aren’t going to pay him. They already antied up for Josh Johnson and Hanley and I don’t think there is enough cash to go around for Uggla too.
Coach13
October 14th, 2010
10:57 am
Where did he hit in the lineup for the Cards. He put up pretty good numbers for a 2nd year player .270/25/60 I believe is what he roughly hit. YOu would hope that he would only improve on that. However hitting in the same lineup with PUjols in Holliday is a little different than Jones/McCann. Plus he’s a left hitter. Don’t we need a right handed power bat??
BBUA
October 14th, 2010
10:58 am
Let’s be realistic the Braves most glaring weakness is the outfield. Assuming Chipper returns we are set at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B and RF. Chipper will probably only be able to play in 110 to 120 games meaning Omar will get plenty of playing time. I think Freeman will do okay, I think we need a right handed 1B to handle the tough left handed pitchers and to pinch hit. I would love for D Lee to stay but his contract demand will be out of the question. Maybe someone like Nady.
The outfield is the glaring problem, we need a LF and a CF. Unfortunately we are stuck with McLouth in CF or LF if we obtain a CF. This means we have to obtain a serviceable LF. There is no way this organization can afford Werth or Crawford. It just ain’t gonna happen. That leaves a trade and the only tradeable commodity we have is pitching. Hudson nor Lowe will not be traded due to their salaries. That leaves JJ, Hanson or some of our top prospects (Tehran, Viscano, Delgado, etc).
None of these should be traded unless we get a top outfielder in return. I haven’t checked each team roster for possibilities but Kemp of the Dodgers looks inviting as does Rasmus of the Cards. Chris Young of the Diamond Backs is another possibility. Personally I like the idea of JJ for Kemp, both teams fill a need. JJ spot in the rotation would be filled by KK, Beachy or we could sign someone to be the fifth starter. Diaz and McLouth could then share LF and McLouth could be the back up CF.
Position players – McCann, Freeman, Prado, Gonzalez, Chipper, Diaz/McLouth Kemp and
Hayward.
Bench – Ross, Nady (or another right handed 1B), Infante, Conrad, Hinske
SP – Hudson, Hanson, Lowe, KK (unless traded or released), Minor, Beachy
Relief – Venters, Kimbrel, Dunn, EOF, Moylan, Martinez, Marek
This roster is not as good as the Phillies but it is better than what we finished the season with.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
11:01 am
I don’t think Rasmus is that good.
Coach13
October 14th, 2010
11:01 am
With Infante, Prado, and Jones, someone is the odd man out. It’s time to pony up some money and go get us a hitter (not Derrick Lee type). Tell Chipper to stay home and go get Crawford and/or Werth, or Uggla. Until you get a bonified threat in this lineup we won’t be able to compete.
Pitching can only take you so far. It was proven throughout this year.
Larry M
October 14th, 2010
11:04 am
@Coach13 -
Here is Rasmus’ line from last year – this is in only 464 AB’s (LaRussa and he conflicted so much he lost PT):
85R, 23HR, 66RBI, 12SB, .362OBA
Imagine having that in LF on an everyday basis, hitting sixth in our lineup. Holy schnikeys! Folks if we can get the Cards to bite on a Rasmus/JJ deal, it should take us two seconds to say yes.
No way do you trade JJ within the division to the Marlins for Uggla. Yeah, it would be great to have Uggla, but you don’t trade young pitching talent within the division.
Coach13
October 14th, 2010
11:04 am
BBUA- 2 things I can promise you. Hanson is going nowhere and KK is done as a Brave.
$20 mil a year would sign Werth easily and should sign Crawford was well (not together).
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
11:05 am
The Braves have $2.5 mil option on Gonzo…I’m not so sure they exercise it.
Warren Spahn
October 14th, 2010
11:06 am
The Braves need some speed. The best teams were those with Neon and Otis stealing bases.
Pitchers like Tehran, Hoover, and Delgado may well be the future- kind of like Wainwright and Feliz should have been.
By the way, who was the brilliant poster who said the Braves didn’t need Andrus because they had Escobar?
ABravesFan
October 14th, 2010
11:07 am
Should Wren consider trading JJ? Sure, but only if it is for a young (team control for a couple of years) bat in return. JJ is too good (and proven) and too much of the team’s future to be used for an one year rental type.
Ultimately, I don’t see him getting traded.
Rake Yohn
October 14th, 2010
11:08 am
Let’s see…you need a 1st baseman, shortstop, 3rd baseman, a couple of outfielders…a catcher that can catch…a couple of aces for your rotation, a closer…in other words, no chance of catching the Phillies for quite a while…Maybe you can sign Manny, he’d be a good fit…he can’t play defense either!!
Sweet Old Buck
October 14th, 2010
11:08 am
Keep Jurrjens. The answer is still getting Chipper to retire. Who wants a fragile, 39 year old who has already proved he can’t play through a season. Make him an offer he can’t refuse.
Larry M
October 14th, 2010
11:09 am
@ Ted M – um, what part of that stat line do you not like? Rasmus is 24 years old, folks – just at the beginning of what is going to be a big career. He will come cheap to the Braves as he has a few years pre-arbitration left.
St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Braves have already had discussions with the Cards on Rasmus. If LaRussa comes back one more year, Rasmus is probably available.
Tweets that mention Will Braves trade Jurrjens to strengthen outfield? | Jeff Schultz -- Topsy.com
October 14th, 2010
11:12 am
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Eric Race, KC Covington and KC Covington, NelliesBravesUpdates. NelliesBravesUpdates said: So do you want a weaker starting rotation or another weak outfield? Rotation without Jurrjens would probably be… http://fb.me/CkhRbt6P [...]
Tony
October 14th, 2010
11:12 am
If the Braves knew they were going to hire Freddy, they should have kept Yunel. Who better than communicate with Yunel, than a fellow Cuban. Oh well. Gonzo for a whole season? It’s like watching Francouer hit again…ugh.
Rasmus is not that good, but what are the other options? Werth and Crawford seem to be out of the picture. Milwaukee would be foolish to give up Braun? So who are the others? By the way, I did not know Cody Ross was 5′2.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
11:13 am
The RBI is low considering he is hitting behind Pujols & Holiday.
Captain Lou Albano
October 14th, 2010
11:15 am
Keep JJ. Trade or pay off Kawakami to leave. I think McLouth should be given an opportunity to play next season. See how he does in spring training. Remember we’re getting a new hitting coach for next season. Maybe he’ll “fix” McLouth’s swing. Also maybe its time to give some young players in triple A, a chance to play left field. Let Melky walk and I hate to say it, but maybe let Diaz go. We’re also going to need some bullpen help. I mean just last year JJ was I think 3rd in the league in era. Regardless if we trade JJ, we better get someone like Jose Baustista. You know someone who will make a difference.
Andy
October 14th, 2010
11:16 am
Ted, why wouldn’t the Braves exercise the option on Gonzo? I don’t think you can get better value at SS, and it frees Omar up to play in a utility role of (my preference) CF. Exercising on Gonzo and signing Jayson Werth to play LF could give us a pretty stellar lineup.
Prado
Heyward
Jones
McCann
Werth
Freeman
Gonzalez
Infate
That way we don’t get too lefty-heavy. Signing a guy like Dunn or Crawford makes it impossible to split up lefties in the order. Signing Werth allows you to not re-sign Diaz (sadly, he’s a perfect Brave at heart), Ankiel, and Melky, and use McLouth as your fourth outfielder. It will be tough though, being a Boras client.
Captain Lou Albano
October 14th, 2010
11:16 am
Oh yeah, find away to get Gonzalez out of here.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
11:16 am
I think Milwaukee would be foolish to give up Braun too but ya gotta give it a shot.
Captain Lou Albano
October 14th, 2010
11:16 am
We can’t afford Werth.
Obee
October 14th, 2010
11:17 am
Jeff:
It’s interesting to take a look at Liberty Media’s latest financial report. The Capital Group division of Liberty, which owns the Braves, had, as of the end of June, cash on hand of $2 billion (yes, with a “b”), so the company could probably afford to toss a few million the Braves way if they wanted to make that a priority. However, the Capital Group also had an operating loss for the period, which is probably why the division won’t part with money anytime soon. By the way, the Braves are barely mentioned in the report. The Capital Group is all about making money from movies. There is no mention of revenues or expenses directly attributable to the Braves, although there is some description of how much the company owes players over the next three years through “employment contracts.”
Fred
October 14th, 2010
11:18 am
I still think they need to look at ways to trade Lowe. He is not getting any younger and had a strong finish – which should strengthen his tradeability. Agree JJ will not be around once he hits free-agency, but I believe his value will go up between now and then.
We NEED to dump McLouth and Kawakami. If the other team only takes over the minimum salary we need to get these guys off our roster – they take slots that could/should be filled with CAPABLE players. Also should NOT pick up the option on Gonzalez. Fredi needs a clean slate, and Wren keeps holding on to all this “young talent” which he refuses to trade then fine. let them play!
GTSteve
October 14th, 2010
11:19 am
I thought it was a no doubt’er that the Braves would keep Gonzo, but the last month of the season make me wonder
Liberty Media’s Board of Directors
October 14th, 2010
11:20 am
We don’t own a baseball team, we own an asset. Of course, we do like to fly in and a catch a game with our mistresses every now and again to keep them happy and shut them up.
Jock
October 14th, 2010
11:21 am
Matt Holliday just got a contract for 7 years @ 17 mil per(120 mil total). I think that is going to be the baseline for Crawford, and you know the Red Sox are going to and can afford to offer more than anybody on the market except the Yankees. Same with Werth.
I know he is getting long in the tooth, but I would consider making a run at Magglio Ordonez. He’s not the greatest defender, but servicable, and gives us the Righty punch in the middle that we lack.
Cmon Man
October 14th, 2010
11:23 am
Trade Jurrjens to St. Louis? So, not only would it be painful to see our former top prospect, Wainwright, defeat the Braves over and over again, but we’ll probably see Jair do it too.
Atlanta news | Minute by minute (Oct. 14) | Atlanta News | Minute by minute
October 14th, 2010
11:25 am
[...] a.m. AJC sports columnist Jeff Schultz has a few thoughts on how the Braves might improve next year. One would mean trading the young, talented starter Jair [...]
Cmon Man
October 14th, 2010
11:28 am
I’m in favor of doing ANYTHING to get rid of McLouth. It doesn’t even have to be a fair/equal trade (remember how lopsided the Millwood for Estrada trade seemed to be?)
On top of his lack of offensive production, i’m sick of him never trying to throw runners out. He hasn’t proved to me that he’s worthy to being an everyday outfielder.
Braverman
October 14th, 2010
11:28 am
I don’t get the idea of trading a relatively proven commodity with growth potential (i.e. Jurgens) over a an unproven one even if you project big things (i.e. Teheran et al) Prospects are like stocks, but baseball is not only about retirement years, its about the here and now. Say we had traded Teheran or Minor, or some prospect at the deadline for a Dunn, or other big bat rather than the junk bonds Lee and Ankiel and that this big bat got us a few more runs against San Fran and we were now in the NLCS. Would sending Bobby out with a fighting chance at a ring not been worth the potential of seeing that prospect shine in another uniform. Schuerholz was not scared to unload prospects galore for the right piece to win. Sure some of those were not good moves, Wainwright comes to mind, but where would this organization be without the trades for Crime Dog and others like it. We probably would not have 14 division titles or 1 WS title. If we cant realistically sign players like Maddox in free agency anymore, then all you have is your farm system. I am not saying to mortgage the future, but if you want to run a successful operation today you might have to risk the future a little more. To me the risk is greater at this point that Jurggens will be great than any of the minor leaguers that we hope will be great but have not seen indications of it on the major league level.
Larry M
October 14th, 2010
11:28 am
For chrissake people, the Brewers are not going to trade Braun. He is one of the top OF in baseball.
@Ted M – for your information, Rasmus did not hit behind Pujols and Holliday regularly. He bounced around the lineup, sometimes hitting sixth or seventh, but also leadoff and even clean up. His OPS was .859 and over .900 most of the year. He was paid about $400k this year and will be the same next year. After that, you’d have him locked up till 2014 in arbitration years.
My only knock on Rasmus is he is a lefty and we need some RH bats.
Abnerish
October 14th, 2010
11:29 am
I don’t understand how Crawford can be too expensive? Yes the guy is going to expect a large contract, but why can’t the Braves afford him? If Liberty Media is truly a bunch of businessmen, then they know that in order to make money you have to spend money!! The buzz that signing Crawford would make in this town would be amazing. His signing alone would account for at least a 15-20% increase in ticket sales. Then you throw in merchandising and increased TV revenue, he practically pays for himself. If Liberty Media can’t see this, then just look to the north at Philly or New York to see that paying for stars does generate more revenue for the team. If that doesn’t work, sell the freakin team to someone who DOES understand that! PLEASE! Arthur Blank? Anyone?
SR
October 14th, 2010
11:34 am
This is an indictment of their farm system isn’t it? Where are the outfield prospects other than Heyward? Why is trading a starter the only option? Friggin’ McLouth, Journeyman Diaz, Brad Komminsk, errrrr, Jordan Schaefer, Rick Ankiel, good golly are you kiddding me, just mentioning those names makes we want to hurl…
Frank Wren
October 14th, 2010
11:35 am
Relax guys, we’ll trade Jair for another mediocre Yankees outfielder- it’s already a done deal.