Will Braves trade Jurrjens to strengthen outfield?
Giving up this home run to Washington pitcher Livan Hernandez in September was one of Jair Jurrjens' lowlights.
Braves general manager Frank Wren went into the winter last offseason determined to trade a starting pitcher in hopes of acquiring some help for the Braves’ offensively-challenged lineup. The result was the oft-lampooned Javier Vazquez-for-Melky Cabrera trade.
The only difference this winter is the Braves are coming off a postseason berth — so maybe they won’t appear quite as desperate. But an unpopular move could be forthcoming: Are you ready to say goodbye to Jair Jurrjens?
I know — dealing Jurrjens seems unfathomable. Why would Wren trade his team’s young, inexpensive and talented starting pitcher? Simple: If he doesn’t, it’s going to significantly limit his options this winter and certainly would force him to get real creative with the team’s budget.
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♦ 1.) The Braves’ payroll this season was approximately $84 million. It’s not expected to increase much, if at all. Owner Liberty Media’s Board of Directors, as you might’ve noticed, did not arrange a field trip to Turner Field for the postseason. Nobody handed out red foam tomahawks at stockholders’ meetings. In short, they don’t care. So don’t expect the club to be free to pursue a mega-dollar free agent like Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford.
♦ 2.) Chipper Jones’ intention to hold off on retirement and rehab from a major knee surgery — he seems more determined than ever to come back and is a big fan of new manager Fredi Gonzalez — means his $13 million salary will remain on the books. Closer Billy Wagner ($7 million) falls off the payroll. So does big-money late-season acquisition Derrek Lee ($13 million, of which the Braves paid only a fraction).
But here comes the painful part: The Braves still have 2011 obligations to outfielder Nate McLouth ($6.5 million) and pitcher Kenshin Kawakami ($6.67 million) — both of whom were demoted to Triple-A Gwinnett during the season.
♦ 3.) The top three starters in the rotation are Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe. Lowe finished the season strong and was outstanding in two postseason starts (three earned runs, 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, despite two losses). He is perceived as far more important to the success of this team than he was after last season. Also, even if the Braves wanted to move Lowe, the fact he is owed $30 million over the next two years makes that possibility unlikely.
♦ 4.) Unless Wren is willing to deal touted prospects, something he’s generally been averse to, that means he’ll either have to shop for low-budget free agents again or deal from his position of strength: starting pitching. Jurrjens is only 24 but his long-term future in Atlanta is uncertain, given that his agent is Scott Boras. Jurrjens also struggled this season with a hamstring and knee injuries. He dropped from 34 starts, 25 quality starts (allowing three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings), a 14-10 record and a 2.60 ERA in 2009 to 20 starts, 10 quality starts, 7-6 and a 4.64 ERA this season.
But of all the Braves’ tradable assets, Jurrjens is the most likely to fetch something decent in return. It’s either that or fill available starting jobs in left and center field on the cheap again.
After Hudson, Hanson and Lowe, the Braves’ next two spots would go to some combination of Kawakami (if he is kept and not paid to walk away), Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and a low-budget free agent (back-end-of-the-rotation starters aren’t difficult to find). Kris Medlen will miss most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Wren obviously moved quickly with his new managerial hire. But that move was kind of a slam dunk: Fredi Gonzalez was unemployed and living in Marietta. The roster fix won’t be as easy — and somebody may have to leave.
(I’ll leave you with this: Columbus, Ga., native and St. Louis center field Colby Rasmus clashed this season with manager Tony LaRussa and requested a trade two months ago. Would you be willing to part with Jurrjens if he was part of a Rasmus trade, or do you think the Braves can do better than Rasmus? And yes: I’m just throwing this against the wall. Below are all the pitchers who started games for the Braves this season, listed in order of quality starts.)
Pitcher QS (GS) W-L ERA K BB
Tim Hudson 25 (34) 17-9 2.83 139 74
Tommy Hanson 19 (34) 10-11 3.33 173 56
Derek Lowe 15 (33) 16-12 4.00 136 61
Jair Jurrjens 10 (20) 7-6 4.64 86 42
Kris Medlen 7 (14) 6-2 3.68 83 21
Kenshin Kawakami 7 (16) 1-10 5.15 59 32
Mike Minor 3 (8) 3-2 5.98 43 11
Brandon Beachy 0 (3) 0-2 3.00 15 7
♦
EARLIER TODAY:
♦ Gonzalez keeps Pendleton but not as hitting coach (UPDATED)
♦ Fredi Gonzalez is Braves’ perfect choice to replace Cox
♦ Challenge of Cox’s replacement will be recreating chemistry
♦
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553 comments Add your comment
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
9:50 am
Jeff,
How many is too many lefties in the lineup? I’m not exactly sure, what does everyone else think?
Jim
October 14th, 2010
9:50 am
Make no mistake- Medlen is going to be the guy to anchor this rotation for the next decade. That kid is really special.
Looks like we will have the luxury of having one too many pitchers for the rotation…they wont deal Minor, so it looks like either Beachy or Jurrjens will go
Vino Fino
October 14th, 2010
9:50 am
Let’s not forget the last time we traded a young pitcher to the Cardinals for a bat! How does that J.D. Drew for Wainwright deal look now? It is always risky to trade away young pitching talent, and certainly Rasmus is not enough of a reward. Until ownership is willing to open up the checkbook on high end free agents, I’d rather just take my chances stockpiling good pitching and see where that gets us. If healthy, this year’s team might have been able to scratch out enough runs to go deep into the playoffs. With a manager who’s more willing to play small ball, who knows…
Besides, what happens when Lowe or Hudson get hurt?
TDub
October 14th, 2010
9:52 am
Rasmus is good, but a lefty. How many lefties does that give us in the everyday lineup?
mark bradley's 70's fro and mustache
October 14th, 2010
9:54 am
We need to cut KK and nate. Write them off as a lost. Liberty needs to take a strong interest in this team. They bought us and they need a representative at the games. This sux!
Larry
October 14th, 2010
9:56 am
Further, Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe were pitching their best baseball of the year the last several weeks because they are all three in good shape, unlike the fat Jurrjens. Look at the weight/conditioning on the top three starters of the Phillies and Giants. See any guts poking out of any of these six starters like Jurrjens’ hang nasty? See any guts on Smoltz, Avery, Glavine or Maddux at 24 years old–or 34 years old for that matter?
Make him get in shape or trade him now so he can get fatter on someone else’s nickel!
glord1
October 14th, 2010
9:56 am
sportsmandh
October 14th, 2010
9:46 am
glord1,
Who says Chipper has to bat 3rd? I hope he comes back. The team needs him. I say if he makes it back they put him in the 5 hole. Just my theory.
OK he comes back. Where do you play him? He has no range at all. Alright you live with his defense. If his name was Larry Smith would you pay him 14 mil to hit 14 HR and drive in 60? I would love to have him back at 4 million but at 14 million with that production he kills the team no matter where he hits.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
9:57 am
Lefties; McCann, Heyward, Freeman and switch Jones.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
9:57 am
Is 4 of 8 position players being a lefty too many?
SadDawg
October 14th, 2010
9:57 am
Hopefully, if Chipper hits like the past 2 seasons, Fredi won’t pencil him in everyday at the 3-spot in the lineup . . .
dadoftnt
October 14th, 2010
9:58 am
I think trading Jair Jurrjens would be a big mistake. I agree we need more hitting, but when the starting pitching goes down with injury – we’re asking why did we trade him. The Braves have to trade young talent to “rent” another starting pitcher. Just saying….
glord1
October 14th, 2010
9:58 am
Can anyone name me a starting 3rd baseman in MLB over the age of 35 other than Chipper Jones. By the way he is 39.
Brave New World
October 14th, 2010
9:59 am
How about JJ for David Wright? Mets need starting pitching and the Braves need a solid bat. If he plays in 2011, move Chipper back to left field. Get another outfielder who can steal 20-30 bases and we’re set for another playoff run. I like JJ, but we have enough pitching at the major league level with a lot more in development in the minors.
Hillbilly Deluxe
October 14th, 2010
10:00 am
quality starts (allowing three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings),
The “Quality Start” stat is one of the most overrated in baseball. If you compute out 3 earned runs over 6 innings, that’s a 4.50 ERA. Not exactly setting the world on fire. Only 3 of the NL’s 16 teams had a team ERA worse than 4.50.
nique
October 14th, 2010
10:04 am
Don’t get me wrong, we would have been a better team this season and postseason with Chipper healthy throughout, but if him playing this season means that we can’t fill one of our huge holes in the OF without trading JJ then he should retire and become the batting coach immediately. This is of course putting aside the fact that he will surely miss a good portion of this season if he comes back due to his fragile state these days.
Also, how stupid would it be to trade JJ when his value is the lowest its been in a Braves uni? Kind of like how stupid it was to trade Yunel when his value was at its all-time low. That said maybe Wren will pull the trigger.
bvillebaron
October 14th, 2010
10:05 am
Why would you trade JJ after this season when his market value is low? Besides, who are you going to get? How about if you trade a propect like Delgado (not Teheran) for one of the Reds young outfielders. I think Chris Heisey is going to be a real good player and the Reds might be willing to move him. Just my two cents.
Caracas Braves
October 14th, 2010
10:05 am
I agree eith the principle of doing this. But not sure if Jurjens is the best option. As is always the case, it would depend on who we would be getting in return.
If it is Hudson we would need to trade to get some Crawford-like value, make the deal adn don´t look back.
The bottom line is we need OF power and we need it bad.
blazerdawg
October 14th, 2010
10:06 am
Crawford in a lineup with Infante, Prado, Jones, Heyward, McCann, and Freeman would solve alot of problems…I hope that Wren will at least make a run for Crawford. Braves TV/Radio ratings are excellent and attendance at 2.5M and growing, with Fredi Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to market would seem to make the Braves an exciting proposition.
siskel_god
October 14th, 2010
10:08 am
I only trade JJ for Matt Kemp. No on Rasmus. I would prefer to try and pry away Marlon Byrd from the Cubs for a significantly less haul, but he won’t provide that pop we so desperately need. FW has his work cut out for him this winter, gotta find a taker for Nate, and KK. I expect Melky to be non-tendered and I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Alex Gonzalez has his option picked up. I think we could have had similar production from Diory Hernandez personally. The bottom line is the payroll has to be trimmed before they do anymore spending and it all starts with Nate and KK.
Bama Brave
October 14th, 2010
10:08 am
Its funny how when they thought we needed pitching the owners ran right out there to get pitching. But when we need hitting they wont. Hmmmmmm
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:09 am
Trading JJ for Rasmus would be a mistake. JJ can bring someone better than Rasmus.
MitchC
October 14th, 2010
10:11 am
Jeff, the problem with trading Jurrjens, is that he is too young, and has too much of an upside.
Lowe is 37, and will be here two more years. Hudson is 35, and will be here two more years. He might sign another contract, but who knows?
The problem is.. by 2013, you are looking at having one good young starting pitcher, Tommy Hanson, and that’s it. Medlen wont be back until 2012.
The only other option I see, if we have to trade JJ, down the road, would be maybe to convert Kimbrel or Venters to a starter, so we could have a good pitcher there, in case JJ has to be dealt.
If we trade JJ now, our rotation next year is Lowe, Hudson, Hanson, and what else?
I dont like the idea. He is too young, and has too much of an upside.
Then again, with JJ coming off an injury plagued year, what could we get for him. Who do we trade him for, and what kind of offensive numbers would that guy have? Unless it’s.. 20 to 30 homers, and 80 to 100 RBIs, then no.
Fart Gargunkel
October 14th, 2010
10:11 am
Chipper needs to forfeit most of his salary and play for a few Mil.
It’s obvious that him hoping to come back and be healthy is going to handcuff anything the Braves would be able to do as far as sign anyone. If it takes him until Spring Training to decide if healthy or not, then all of the good FA will be signed.
Tony
October 14th, 2010
10:11 am
Larry,
I COULD NOT AGREE MORE. Jurrens is fat and out of shape. No wonder his knees, hamstrings are acting up. Plus he always falters in the late innings. Get in shape or get rid of him. I’m glad I’m not the only one who notices. I don’t know what is about Curacao, but if Andruw Jones and Randall Simon are any indications…Jurrgens will get fatter and fatter and fatter and fatter…..
Ken Shelton
October 14th, 2010
10:12 am
Obviously current Braves owners aren’t going to mimic what Ted Turner achieved in the 1990’s, as per competing with the George Steinbrenner’s of the world to produce the best name players a team could field. Still, one would think with attendance being up at some 2 & 1/2 million through the gates at Turner Field in 2010 plus a playoff berth, if the out-of-town owners are about profit, only reason would be powers-that-be at Liberty would want a team that could compete with the strong core already in place of impressive players. Again, no-doubt payroll couldn’t compete with the Yankees of the world, but fans could hope with more money being made with the Braves 2011 payroll might increase some. With the fate of the way-overpaid pitcher KK needing to be shipped back to his native-land, and while great prospects, hurlers Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy yet to prove they can handle the chore on the major league level, bidding farewell to one of our top four starting pictures is a risk-at-best. Yet, we all realize offense must improve to have any shot next year to compete with the likes of the Phillies? Should be in interesting off-season to say the least?
gooneygoogoo
October 14th, 2010
10:13 am
Sorry you can’t talk about the Braves any longer the seasons over. Football or Hockey are the only sports that need to be talked about.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:15 am
on 7/5/2010 Giants GM Brian Sabean and one of his top evaluators, Lee Elder, may have been scouting Brewers players at today’s Giants-Brewers game, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Schulman lists Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and Ryan Braun as potential targets.
Apparently some GM’s think it is possible to trade for Braun. 2 starting pitchers for the Brewers might do it.
stupup74
October 14th, 2010
10:15 am
41 million of the approx 85-90 million dollar payroll goes to Chipper, D-Lowe, McLouth and KK.
Almost 1/2 the payroll goes to guys who quite frankly, save a couple of months, stunk this year.
That is a BIG issue
bibbs
October 14th, 2010
10:17 am
its true that alot of salary will be coming off the books in the form of (glaus, ankiel, lee, melky, wagner, saito, etc. But to say we can take that roughly 17 mil and buy a bat would mean paying one (or maybe 1 1/2 players) to replace about 6 on our roster. puts you in the same situation as having 4 or 5 of your players eating up a disporportional amount of your payroll.
keep hanson and jj as long as you can b4 you have to deal with boras.
as for peter’s comment on this team being one of the oldest in league? our core of mccann, heyward, omar, prado and possibly freeman next year makes us very young. also jj, minor, medlen, beachy and the pitching prospects we have makes us look good (on paper) for several years to come.
Tyler
October 14th, 2010
10:17 am
First, Kawakami does have some trade value. Not much, but teams in need of back-end starting pitching (such as the Cardinals, Royals, and Mariners, among others) would take him in a package deal (or straight up for a lower level prospect). I definitely see him going somewhere else this winter.
Second, this will be Jurrjens’ first arbitration year, and I definitely see his salary going up a considerable amount. If the organization wants to keep him, I would be in favor of them buying out his arbitration years with a contract between 4-6 million per season.
Third, I’m to the point that I don’t care if Colby Rasmus is going to strike out more than Ryan Howard. I want another player (besides McCann) that will hit 20+ homers per year. I think a Jurrjens-for-Rasmus deal would work out fine, especially since the Cardinals need starting pitching and we have a surplus of starters in the minors. I liked what I saw from both Minor and Beachy this year, and I think that Jurrjens wouldn’t require other prospects (or if so, a few low-level ones) for Rasmus. Yes, the Cards top three starters would look scary, but we would at least have another legitimate offensive threat.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:18 am
Minor is going to be a more than a descent starter.
keith
October 14th, 2010
10:18 am
Would love to see Blanc…or Ted come back. I know, I’m dreaming.
bibbs
October 14th, 2010
10:18 am
not to mention venters, kimbrel and dunn already on the roster
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:19 am
JJ and one of our phenoms for Braun. Wren get on the horn now.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:20 am
Turner is a poor little pauper compared to liberty media. We’d have to drop payroll by 25%.
NORRIS
October 14th, 2010
10:21 am
seems to me we have a lot of people that are free agents. All those together have to open up enough money to help this team aquire something of value. Be that as it may, We have a lot of holes to fill.
left field, center field, 3rd maybe, and another first baseman besides the rookie.
Tony
October 14th, 2010
10:24 am
Exactly…Ted doesn’t have the billions he once had. He just a regular millionaire, nothing special.
Why doesn’t Vince McMahon buy a baseball team? He’s already beat Turner once…
P Rose
October 14th, 2010
10:25 am
JJ cries when a call goes against him and then often gives up a the gopher ball on the next pitch. The meltdown in Colorado with a 10-1 lead was symptomatic of his head problems. He is also too often injured for someone so young; this will only worsen with age (see Chipper). And his agent is Scott Boras. Trade his fat @$$ NOW.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:25 am
Jeff,
Have the Braves, at least pretty much, decided that Infante is going to be our starting shortstop?
GTSteve
October 14th, 2010
10:26 am
good point SadDawg….I think the Braves got the best of that trade
sportsmandh
October 14th, 2010
10:27 am
Shultz,
I would like you to explain how the Braves have no shot at Crawford. I have determined myself not to argue with bloggers about how much money the Braves would have to throw at a free agent.
but explain this. There is a LOT of money coming off the books.
Farnsworth – approx. 1.4 mil
1) Wagner – 6.75 mil
2) Saito – 3.2 mil
3) Melky – 3.1 mil
4) Ankiel – approx. 1 mil
5) Diaz (who you would not resign if you signed Crawford) – 2.5 mil
6) Glaus/Lee – 1.75 mil + approx. 2.65
7) Hinske – 1 mil
That is about 23.4 mil added up. That is a lot.
I’m not saying the Braves won’t resign anyone. They will have to resign some obviously to fill out the roster. And some guys will get well get raises through arbitration or extension, and there will be some buyout costs. But if the Braves go with Freeman at 1st, like they did with Heyward this year, how can you not AT LEAST suggest there is a lot of money available. (the approximation is assuming they paid 30% of Ankiel and Farns salary, 20% of Lee’s salary for the year).
If, for arguments sake, let’s say 75 % of this 23.4 mil we added up is available. That is 17.5 million available in budget, assuming the budget is not increased like you say. It is very doable.
In addition to the 23.4 mil above, in 2012, Kawakami and McClouth wil be gone, that is 13-14 mil off the books during that year. In 2013, Lowe and Chipper come off the books. That is 29 million off the books from then too.
It is very simple. You offer Crawford a 5 year deal for ‘95 million. backloaded and paid for by Lowe and Chipper being off the books. Let’s say he’s offered 17, 18, 20, 20, 20 by year. That would be 95 over 5 years. (Lowe got 60 over 5, and he’s not a much younger everyday position player with speed).
This is not crazy. Look at all the money I showed above. after ‘11 and ‘12 A LOT of money is off the total budget. You can take on someone like Crawford for the long term, and have available money to give raises/extensions to young guys like Heyward, Freeman, Prado, McCann, your relievers, etc.
I know people will argue, even though I have laid this out. Some people just want face facts. No, the Braves don’t have the payroll some do, but their not dirt poor paupers either. Now could they be outbid by the Phils, Angels, or someone else? Yes. BUT, don’t say they can’t be in the mix.
P Rose
October 14th, 2010
10:27 am
Carl Crawford is NOT the answer. We need gamers here, not outfielders who sulk and loaf after balls in the gap when his team is down. Yes, CC did that this year, and wound up in a much-televised fight in the clubhouse over it. We have already seen how our new manager reacts to such behavior. It won’t fly here.
wiki
October 14th, 2010
10:27 am
Jurrjens’ stock is low now….He is of more value to us than another team IMO.
gtdawg
October 14th, 2010
10:30 am
THE BRAVES CANNOT WIN BIG TIME UNDER THE CURRENT CARPETBAGGING JERK OWNER SHIP. THEY ARE NOT THE WORST ONLY BECAUSE TIME WARNER WAS MUCH WORSE. HOW IRONIC THAT THESE JERKS HAD THE BROADCAST RIGHTS TO THE 1ST ROUND OF GAMES. PROFF THAT THERE IS NO JUSTICE ON EARTH.T-W NEEDS TO BE HIRED FOR ALL OUR EFFORTS AFGHANISTAN. IF THEY INFLTRATED THE TALIBAN THEY WOULD BE DESTROYED IN 2 YEARS, LIKE THEY DID THE BRAVES.
Braves trading Jurrjens? | sportsnewsstream.com
October 14th, 2010
10:30 am
[...] sent Javier Vazquez packing to get Melky Cabrera in return. This offseason, the Braves could be trying to trade hurler Jair Jurrjens for some offensive help, according to the Atlanta Journal [...]
Hillbilly Deluxe
October 14th, 2010
10:31 am
Is 38 HR’s worth 199 strikeouts? That’s Adam Dunn.
sportsmandh
October 14th, 2010
10:32 am
meant Lowe got 60 over 4 years
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
10:33 am
Crawford is lock to get 7 years and a $140 million.
Dirty Dawg
October 14th, 2010
10:33 am
I’m confident that whoever ‘larry’ and ‘tony’ are they’ve posted here before, but somehow I never noticed…until their contributions on this subject today. All I know is that here’s one fat guy that would love to meet either of you, or both for that matter, and kick the ever-loving…well you get it. A couple of rightwing a-holes that can’t seem to talk about anything without leading with your prejudices and your warped political points of view – at least the larry one anyway.
And trust me, Liberty Media doesn’t give a crap about the Braves except for when they put ‘em on the market whenever their ‘tax-windfall’ kicks in. Hell, Malone will probably try to see what he can get for ‘em on the Home Shopping Network just for kicks.
sportsmandh
October 14th, 2010
10:34 am
Ted,
By whom? The Yankees aren’t going to go after him. Neither will the Red Sox.