Will Braves trade Jurrjens to strengthen outfield?
Giving up this home run to Washington pitcher Livan Hernandez in September was one of Jair Jurrjens' lowlights.
Braves general manager Frank Wren went into the winter last offseason determined to trade a starting pitcher in hopes of acquiring some help for the Braves’ offensively-challenged lineup. The result was the oft-lampooned Javier Vazquez-for-Melky Cabrera trade.
The only difference this winter is the Braves are coming off a postseason berth — so maybe they won’t appear quite as desperate. But an unpopular move could be forthcoming: Are you ready to say goodbye to Jair Jurrjens?
I know — dealing Jurrjens seems unfathomable. Why would Wren trade his team’s young, inexpensive and talented starting pitcher? Simple: If he doesn’t, it’s going to significantly limit his options this winter and certainly would force him to get real creative with the team’s budget.
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♦ 1.) The Braves’ payroll this season was approximately $84 million. It’s not expected to increase much, if at all. Owner Liberty Media’s Board of Directors, as you might’ve noticed, did not arrange a field trip to Turner Field for the postseason. Nobody handed out red foam tomahawks at stockholders’ meetings. In short, they don’t care. So don’t expect the club to be free to pursue a mega-dollar free agent like Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford.
♦ 2.) Chipper Jones’ intention to hold off on retirement and rehab from a major knee surgery — he seems more determined than ever to come back and is a big fan of new manager Fredi Gonzalez — means his $13 million salary will remain on the books. Closer Billy Wagner ($7 million) falls off the payroll. So does big-money late-season acquisition Derrek Lee ($13 million, of which the Braves paid only a fraction).
But here comes the painful part: The Braves still have 2011 obligations to outfielder Nate McLouth ($6.5 million) and pitcher Kenshin Kawakami ($6.67 million) — both of whom were demoted to Triple-A Gwinnett during the season.
♦ 3.) The top three starters in the rotation are Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe. Lowe finished the season strong and was outstanding in two postseason starts (three earned runs, 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, despite two losses). He is perceived as far more important to the success of this team than he was after last season. Also, even if the Braves wanted to move Lowe, the fact he is owed $30 million over the next two years makes that possibility unlikely.
♦ 4.) Unless Wren is willing to deal touted prospects, something he’s generally been averse to, that means he’ll either have to shop for low-budget free agents again or deal from his position of strength: starting pitching. Jurrjens is only 24 but his long-term future in Atlanta is uncertain, given that his agent is Scott Boras. Jurrjens also struggled this season with a hamstring and knee injuries. He dropped from 34 starts, 25 quality starts (allowing three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings), a 14-10 record and a 2.60 ERA in 2009 to 20 starts, 10 quality starts, 7-6 and a 4.64 ERA this season.
But of all the Braves’ tradable assets, Jurrjens is the most likely to fetch something decent in return. It’s either that or fill available starting jobs in left and center field on the cheap again.
After Hudson, Hanson and Lowe, the Braves’ next two spots would go to some combination of Kawakami (if he is kept and not paid to walk away), Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and a low-budget free agent (back-end-of-the-rotation starters aren’t difficult to find). Kris Medlen will miss most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Wren obviously moved quickly with his new managerial hire. But that move was kind of a slam dunk: Fredi Gonzalez was unemployed and living in Marietta. The roster fix won’t be as easy — and somebody may have to leave.
(I’ll leave you with this: Columbus, Ga., native and St. Louis center field Colby Rasmus clashed this season with manager Tony LaRussa and requested a trade two months ago. Would you be willing to part with Jurrjens if he was part of a Rasmus trade, or do you think the Braves can do better than Rasmus? And yes: I’m just throwing this against the wall. Below are all the pitchers who started games for the Braves this season, listed in order of quality starts.)
Pitcher QS (GS) W-L ERA K BB
Tim Hudson 25 (34) 17-9 2.83 139 74
Tommy Hanson 19 (34) 10-11 3.33 173 56
Derek Lowe 15 (33) 16-12 4.00 136 61
Jair Jurrjens 10 (20) 7-6 4.64 86 42
Kris Medlen 7 (14) 6-2 3.68 83 21
Kenshin Kawakami 7 (16) 1-10 5.15 59 32
Mike Minor 3 (8) 3-2 5.98 43 11
Brandon Beachy 0 (3) 0-2 3.00 15 7
♦
EARLIER TODAY:
♦ Gonzalez keeps Pendleton but not as hitting coach (UPDATED)
♦ Fredi Gonzalez is Braves’ perfect choice to replace Cox
♦ Challenge of Cox’s replacement will be recreating chemistry
♦
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553 comments Add your comment
richham
October 14th, 2010
8:36 am
Have you guys looked at Ramus numbers? I wouldn’t give them more than a middle level prospect for him.
glord1
October 14th, 2010
8:36 am
Trading a 24 year old capable of winning 18 games next year is not the answer. Statistically JJ was one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL in 2009 and should have won 20 games.
Here is your answer. “Chipper you are under contract and we have to pay you but we can not promise you the 2011 thirdbase job next year” His pride will not allow him to be a bench player. Chipper is worth about 3 mil as a player and is making 14 mil a year. He is the key to off season moves. He is also Wrens last political land mine to navigate from the 90’s (Smoltz, Glavine and Cox).
Dozer
October 14th, 2010
8:37 am
Why do they have to trade anyone? Why can’t they just sign somebody? Jayson Werth would be a perfect choice – he would help the Braves and hurt the Phils at the same time. I have repeatedly heard Wren, Schuerholz, and McGurk on the radio deny that there is a set salary limit (yea, right) – maybe its time for the organization to prove to Braves fans that they are REALLY in it to win it instead of building a “pretty good” team on the cheap…….
richham
October 14th, 2010
8:37 am
Rasmus not Ramus, sorry.
Alex
October 14th, 2010
8:38 am
NOOOOOOooooooOOOOOOO! This season taught us (lost Medlen, KK, Wagner, Saito and, yes, JJ at various points) what every season teaches you. You can’t have enough pitching. And you ESPECIALLY can’t have enough young, affordable starting pitching. I’d MUCH rather trade a combo of prospects for a good outfielder (kids who may or may not end up as good as JJ) than trade JJ.
I know that Wren’s calling card is making politically insensitive moves but he should pass on this one, unless it yields us a bonafide star.
Braves Country
October 14th, 2010
8:42 am
http://pricezack.wordpress.com/2010/10/13/instant-replay-in-baseball-what-is-it-going-to-take/ This is a very interesting read about baseball.
ga gator
October 14th, 2010
8:42 am
We spend too much on Chipper who will be a part-time player again as he has in the past few seasons. We need two outfielders by the way instead of one, since Jason Heyward is the only one in RF who has the potential to be a daily threat.
Andy
October 14th, 2010
8:43 am
I support trading JJ. We’ll have three more seasons with him at most. After 2013, when our rotation may look something like Hanson, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Medlen (or any of several vets that may be acquired in the meantime), there’s no way we’ll be re-signing JJ, a Boras client. How about Jacoby Ellsbury? Another Boras guy, under team control through 2013, and provides a similar value to JJ. The Red Sox might be more interested in a prospect like Delgado or Vizcaino than JJ, since they’ve got Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Daisuke, and Wakefield already.
And Jeff, you’re misrepresenting the Vazquez trade. He had, frankly, an abysmal season in New York. His K to BB ratio went from better than 5:1 to worse than 2:1. His WHIP went up 0.4, his ERA up over 5, after having a sub-3 ERA with the Braves. Lets face it, he had a career season with the Braves that is the outlier over his entire career. Acquiring Vizcaino and Dunn for Vazquez, who was in his contract year, will go down as an outright steal. This trade was not about Melky.
ga gator
October 14th, 2010
8:44 am
glord1 didn’t read your good post before I posted.
jimmya
October 14th, 2010
8:47 am
get rid of melky ankeil farmsworth mclouth while you at it and fire wren yuckkkkkkkkk
Jeff Schultz
October 14th, 2010
8:49 am
Jhughes — I’m not aware of option for 2011 in McClouth’s contract, just straight salary.
nuscrypt
October 14th, 2010
8:49 am
OK, I’m the biggest JJ fan around, but no one is truly untouchable. For the right offer, even Heyward can be had. The only questions are: What is the right offer? Will another team put it out there?
Rasmus is interesting, but how about another young outfielder who doesn’t have the best relationship with his current team: Matt Kemp. The Dodgers situation is seriously messed up right now and I think the owner even called Kemp out during the season. This year he led the team with 28 HR, 89 RBI, and 82 R. Last year he had 26, 101, 97 and he’s just 26 years old! Heyward and Kemp can anchor your outfield for a LONG time! And the Braves still have a ton of young starting pitching. I’d do this and I think the Dodgers would.
Jeff Schultz
October 14th, 2010
8:50 am
Semiballcoach — He was born in Columbus, grew up in Phenix City. Look it up.
75years
October 14th, 2010
8:50 am
The talk is that the LA Angels will move Juan Rivera this winter but will have to pick up part of his salary – Let’s offer the Angels Kawakami and 2 million dollars for Rivera – That way the angels get money rather paying out dollars – The Angels get a cheap 5th starter and we get right handed outfield help
Let's Go
October 14th, 2010
8:52 am
If the Braves are to improve they will have to do it via the trade route because this is not a good year for free agency. The only 2 studs out there are Crawford & Cliff Lee so a bunch of guys who are decent or past their prime will be over paid big time and I really don’t see the Braves having the flexibility to even make too mnay offers. Guys like Wreth, Derek Lee, Adrian Beltre, Javier Vazquez should see some good offers that they otherwise wouldn’t have got had this been a normal free agent year.
There is no way the Braves sign Carl Crawford because someone, maybe the Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox, give him a big deal worth 18 to 20 mil a season, maybe more. Jason Wreth is not the big HR or RBI guy the Braves need. Yes. he is a decent player but his numbers are a result of playing 81 games in CBP and batting behind Howard & Utley (18 HR’s at home-9 on the road). Yes he is an improvement in center but not for the money he will cost.
Jeff Schultz
October 14th, 2010
8:52 am
Justafan — Schafer could be traded but you’d basically be giving him away. His stock isn’t exactly high right now.
dobearsbare
October 14th, 2010
8:53 am
Wren won’t have to be too creative to find enough payroll room to get a big-ticket free agent like Crawford or Jayson Werth. Wagner and Glaus coming off the books frees up about $8.5 million. I don’t know how much they’d have to pay Kawakami to go away, but it has to be less than his entire salary. Let’s say (and I realize this is arbitrary) that saves $1.5 million. So now we’re at $10 million. But that’s just next year. To get a Werth or a Crawford will require a multi-year deal, which I think is the bigger issue. By all appearances, next year will be Chipper’s last year. Even if it’s not, his next contract will have to be for significantly less money, which frees up some for the new guy in 2012 and beyond. After 2012, Lowe will either be gone or less expensive, freeing up even more money. By that point, a bunch of these younger players will be getting more money, but I think the Braves are actually in a pretty good place payroll wise to get the one big bat they sorely need.
Oh, and Jeff, it’s postseason “berth,” not “birth.”
Lowcountry Bulldawg
October 14th, 2010
8:55 am
Jeff,
Good points, but what if the Braves moved Lowed and absorbed a portion of his salary? His value could never be higher and the Yankees and/or Soxx may welcome him. Say the Braves absorb 10 mil(then he is a 20mil for 2yr) and trade him to the Sox for Ellsbury who may have fallen out of favor in Boston? This would certainly fix the issue in CF and at the top of the order while freeing salary space.
Got to hit
October 14th, 2010
8:58 am
Hire Greg Walker hitting Coach.
beachcomber
October 14th, 2010
9:00 am
Word I got from someone down here (Clearwater) in the Phils org is they dump Ibanez this off season put one of their kids in right and go hard after Crawford. Be interesting to see if that plays out.
PMC
October 14th, 2010
9:02 am
That would be absolutely stupid.
Why would you weaken your team by trading a great player when you can go out and buy Carl Crawford or Jason Werth???
There is no salary cap in baseball. What are you going to stockpile picks and wait 5 more years?
Go get Carl Crawford for left freaking field NOW!!!
Pay the man his money.
That “trade” (read salary dump) they made gifting Tampa Rafael Soriano for Jesse Chavez….yeah how’s that working out???
Let's Go
October 14th, 2010
9:02 am
Found this, not sure how acturate it is since they still had David Ross listed and will know he resigned a couple of months ago.
Potential Braves Free Agents
Troy Glaus ATL
Derrek Lee ATL
Alex Gonzalez ATL *
Omar Infante ATL *
Rick Ankiel ATL *
Eric Hinske ATL
Kyle Farnsworth ATL
* = option for 2011. (doesn’t say if it’s player or team)
glord1
October 14th, 2010
9:03 am
E-6
October 14th, 2010
8:26 am
Funny thing about Chipper. The other NL teams don’t seem to have the same low opinion of the 38-year-old as many on the blog. Still were pitching around him last season. Guy manages to come up big with games on the line.
Chipper has gotten 500 at bats once in the last seven years. Thats right once in 7 years. His averages over the last two seasons are 14 HR 59 RBI and a 265 AVE hitting in the 3 hole. That is horrific. Anyone that wants to see him return, play poor defense at 3rd, get 380 ABs hit 12 HR is more interested in living in the past than winning next year. Are those numbers a good investment for 14 mil because that is what he is now?
PMC
October 14th, 2010
9:03 am
This is the #7 media market in America. This is a MAJOR market. 84 million and virtually no talent in the outfield isn’t going to cut it… if they want to win a championship anyway.
PMC
October 14th, 2010
9:09 am
They need to just eat the 12 million from McClouth and KK because those two guys bring virtually nothing to the team. d
If you don’t go get a watchable player out there in the outfield like Crawford… don’t whine about people not coming to the ballpark.
We can go to freaking high school or college games and watch guys play “as a team and with grit.”
ANYONE can play with heart. Not everyone can hit 30 hrs and steal 30 bases. Those are the people worth paying ot see… not steroided out Giles brothers.
75years
October 14th, 2010
9:11 am
If we nontender Melky(3.5M) – Diaz(3M) add what we paid Wagner(7M) and Saito(3.5) – We would have 17M to make a run at Werth
PMC
October 14th, 2010
9:11 am
Hudson and Lowe are how old? Yeah.. don’t trade JJ because he had one bad year.
zebra
October 14th, 2010
9:13 am
Is Schultz calling for Gonzales’ head yet?
raymond
October 14th, 2010
9:17 am
The Braves have wanted Cody Ross for a while and they will sign him in the off season to play any of the outfield positions and let M Caberara go. They will invest 13 million in a Chipper Jones who will again be no help to the team and only prohibit it from moving forward. They will lose Infante to free agency so he won’t be here to take up Chippers slack. In a nut shell, another year of strong starting pitching and no offense.
Tucker T
October 14th, 2010
9:18 am
Give the Cardinals another good young pitcher? The prospect makes me sick to my stomach. If the Braves were to deal JJ they would have to get a boat load for him including a young outfielder with 25-30 homerun potential who would remain under team control for several more years AND a decent veteran starting pitcher to replace JJ. If they can do that I would be in favor.
ChippersLoveChild
October 14th, 2010
9:18 am
I wouldn’t deal Jurrjens for Rasmus, not because Colby isn’t a good player, but because then you are making the Cards Top 3 of Wainwright, Carpenter, and Jurrjens stronger than the Braves and arguably stronger than the Phillies… No thanks. Why help out the competition?
layinlow
October 14th, 2010
9:19 am
When is liberty media gonna sell our Braves to mr. Blank? The tax window for selling the team should be about to open up for them. I think they had to hold the team for about 3-5 years to take advantage of the tax relief. Does anyone out there have a take on this issue? Any CPA’s in the house?
collegeballfan
October 14th, 2010
9:19 am
Enter your comments here
raymond
October 14th, 2010
9:22 am
PS
Gonzales will be as loyal to Chipper as Cox was, so don’t expect that to change.
layinlow
October 14th, 2010
9:25 am
I can’t blame Chipper for taking the 13 million. This will be his last big payday. Would any of you leave 13 million on the table? Didn’t think so.
Ted Striker
October 14th, 2010
9:31 am
I’m skeptical of trading youth — regardless of position — when the organization isn’t passionate & urgent about a championship.
john
October 14th, 2010
9:31 am
JJ trade bait ok. Rasmus unless he matures-no. I’m sure the Cards are willing to trade him. Poison in the clubhouse.”All about me” attitude all his life.
Bama Brave
October 14th, 2010
9:32 am
WE Need Carl Crawford!
glord1
October 14th, 2010
9:34 am
Unfortunately the Braves owe Chipper 14 mil in 2011 and 2012 not just 13 mil. He gets a 1 mil signing bonus at the beginning of each year He could keep the Braves from being competitive for the next two years. A 40 year old 3rd baseman for 14 mil. Ouch!
Larry
October 14th, 2010
9:35 am
Gonzalez to Chipper: “Yesterday I set a text to Chipper telling him hey Chip, get up off the couch and let’s hit 100 balls….I haven’t gotten a reply from Chipper yet.”
Just what we DID NOT need, another coddling, “player’s manager.” Chipper’s lack of a respectful reply after to his new boss after an entire day speaks volumes!
More of the same by a Cox protégé. Bradley was right–Schultz wasn’t–should have brought in a fresh new approach to championship baseball and not the style that perpetually gets you ousted in the division series.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
9:36 am
Jeff,
Lowe’s late season performance should allow the Braves to trade him for mid-level prospects and free up some cash so they can sign a good free agent outfielder like Werth.
Rasmus is a lefty, we already have more then enough lefties in the lineup.
CRMac
October 14th, 2010
9:39 am
Everyone should check the post by El Bravo on 10/14/10 at 8:06 AM. Best post I have seen on the current state of the Braves. He is exactly right in his approach. Braves will contend again next year. The only missing piece is a power hitting outfielder.
Ted M
October 14th, 2010
9:40 am
Don’t trade Jair unless you’re getting someone like Ryan Braun. Which won’t happen, unless perhaps they include one of the phenoms in the deal.
Bravo Bravos
October 14th, 2010
9:41 am
JS, just wondering… when does JJ become a free agent? That would have a bearing on whether to trade him now.
Tony
October 14th, 2010
9:44 am
I’m fine with moving JJ. Please do it as some as possible, before he is exposed as the 4th starter he truly is. We need Carl Crawford, but can’t afford. So we will end up with another loser in the outfield a la Melky.
sportsmandh
October 14th, 2010
9:46 am
glord1,
Who says Chipper has to bat 3rd? I hope he comes back. The team needs him. I say if he makes it back they put him in the 5 hole. Just my theory.
Bama Brave
October 14th, 2010
9:46 am
you dont need to trade a pitcher. they are good outfield help out there soon.
PDOG
October 14th, 2010
9:46 am
I beleive the Braves will have about 15 million coming off the books this year with at least another 10 the following year. The thing is not to panic and over pay for a Werth or trade one of the young pitchers. As we saw this year you never can have enough pitching. Also while everyone seems to want a homerun guy I would prefer some speed at the top of the order.
SadDawg
October 14th, 2010
9:47 am
It astounds me that folks, especially you, Jeff still speak of the Yankees trade as “Vazquez for Melky deal.”
We got Vazcaino, Mike Dunn, and Melky. Vazcaino was the #1 pitching prospect in the Yankees farm system, and Dunn is a really good, hard-throwing lefty.
Bama Brave
October 14th, 2010
9:49 am
we can afford Carl Crawford. we had no problem signing derk lowe at the time or that japnese pitcher. Its all about what they think we need.