Three Braves’ keys in playoffs (and the long odds in Vegas)
Derrek Lee, who homered in Sunday's 8-7 win over Philadelphia, is a key bat for Braves in playoffs.
Newsflash: The Braves are long shots.
According to the online sportsbook Bodog.com, which generally reflects the odds in Las Vegas, the Braves are 12-1 to win the World Series. That’s last among the eight postseason teams, behind Philadelphia (2-1), New York Yankees (7-2), Tampa Bay (9-2), San Francisco (7-1), Minnesota (8-1), Cincinnati (11-1) and Texas (11-1). Bodog lists the Braves as plus-550 to win the National League pennant, the equivalent of 11-2, behind Philadelphia (1-1.4), San Francisco (3-1) and Cincinnati (5-1).
The longest World Series match-up odds are Braves vs. Rangers at 28-1; the shortest are the Phillies vs. Yankees at 7-2.
So now that you realize just how much money you can make when the Braves win it all — pause for effect — the question becomes: How do the Braves get past the Giants?
This figures to be a low-scoring series. The Giants and Braves are the two lowest-scoring teams with the two lowest staff ERAs in playoffs. So statistics suggest four runs would win a game. Maybe three. Maybe two.
That said, here are three keys for the Braves (beyond the obvious of pitching):
♦ 1. Defense. It has been horrible. Some of that can be attributed to injuries but it really hasn’t been good all year. The Braves finished with 126 errors this season, tied for the third most in the majors behind only Washington and Pittsburgh (127), who had a combined 195 losses. After third baseman Brooks Conrad committed errors in three straight games (including the first two games of the Philadelphia series), manager Bobby Cox flopped Conrad with second baseman Omar Infante in the field. Result: They both committed errors. That just can’t happen, particularly in a low-scoring series. Alex Gonzalez’ 19 errors also ranked low (as in bad) among major league shortstops this season.
♦ Derrek Lee: He actually had a couple of key two-out hits, as well as a home run, in the Philadelphia series. He is hitting .287 (37 for 129) in 39 games as a Brave, which is solid. But he needs to be a run-producer and bring some power in this series. His three home runs in 129 at-bats (151 plate appearances) in Atlanta aren’t enough. Note: In three postseasons with Florida (2003) and the Chicago Cubs (2007-08), Lee is hitting .263 with one homer and eight RBIs.
♦ Omar Infante: Before the season-finale against the Phillies, Infante was hitting .172 (11 for 64) in his previous 16 games. Then he keyed a four-run fourth-inning with a two-run triple and went two-for-five. He is the best remaining hitter on the team, bats leadoff and will key whatever rallies the Braves put together.
So what do you think the keys are to this series?
By the way, checked our poll from yesterday on your playoff predictions. After over 5,400 votes, 43 percent of you believe the Braves will win one round of the playoffs, ahead of lose in the first round (26), win the World Series (22), and win the National League pennant (9). I’ll leave the poll open if you still want to vote.
(I’m off to San Francisco tonight. I’ll start blogging from there Wednesday.)
♦♦♦
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185 comments Add your comment
Braves Babe
October 6th, 2010
3:11 am
http://pricezack.wordpress.com/2010/10/06/the-magic-of-october/ I ran across this article and it is a must read for Braves fans. It will get you so pumped for the playoffs
gotigers72
October 6th, 2010
5:22 am
For the Braves to even be in the playoffs is a miracle. Remember things like Brooks’ wall scraper to beat the Reds, or 25 last at bat wins? Look at the lineups for the last month. My goodness, horseshoes in everyone’s back pockets.
To quote Al Michaels; DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES? YESSSSSSS!
Chop It Up All-Star
October 6th, 2010
6:21 am
I just saw the Padres go into the Giants stadium and win back to back games and damn near force a playoff. Sure the names on the backs of the pitchers jerseys are impressive, but they still have to go out there and make their pitches. And the Giants still have to score some runs.
My keys to this series? Our pitchers keeping the game close. The Braves effectively playing small ball and being aggressive on the base pads. And Heyward and Infante setting the table with D Lee hitting in the three hole – every game. And finally, McCann needs to go back to just hitting the ball solidly all over the field and not trying to pull the ball over the right field fence. If these guys do their jobs everyone else will relax and hit well, it’s happened all season this way. It all depends on the first four.
LJ
October 6th, 2010
6:40 am
Philly is’nt going to make it out of the 1st round. The Reds are going to clean their clock. If it came down to needing a hit to win a game, I’d take Omar or Brooks over anyone else on the team. Melky needs to keep the bench warm for the rest.
Rambunz
October 6th, 2010
6:51 am
Wish my employer would send me to San Francisco to see a couple of playoff games. Can’t think of a better way to spend the upcoming weekend. Mark, be sure to take in Lefty O’Doul’s on Geary Street. Knock back a cold one and put it on my tab.
DLowe
October 6th, 2010
7:50 am
Antime : “It seems that Barry Zito (9-14 4.15 ERA) has been surfing for most of the season, particularly since the All-Star break. He went 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA over his last 11 outings and 10 starts and only had one victory in his last 15 appearances. The stretch included a career-worst nine-game losing streak from July 21 to Sept. 14.”
Do you remember the game earlier this year when he shutout the Braves ?
He’s like Livan Hernandez for the Braves. He can have a 20.00 era and shutout the Braves…
Slam Shoddy
October 6th, 2010
7:54 am
Go ahead and pencil in a Phillies-Yankees World Series. This playoff stuff is just to generate revenue for MLB. Everybody here knows that Halladay,Hamels,Oswalt are unbeatable in a short series.
Pickled Pig Feets
October 6th, 2010
7:57 am
The real keys to the game will be the managing.
Will Bobby play ice cold McLouth and Ankiel or luke warm Diaz and Melky in LF & CF ?
Can D.Lee,Heyward,McCann be the rbi guys ?
Can Conrad play defense ?
But it mostly rests on the starting pitching of Hudson,Hanson,and Lowe.
Chipper Jones
October 6th, 2010
8:00 am
I will gladly play 3rd even with my torn acl. I’m better on d than Conrad with a missing leg. And you know I get up for post season games just ask the Mets !
I sure hate to see Bobby go. He’s been a master of saying such nice things about such sorry Braves players. I can finally throw up in peace.
Chipper Jones
October 6th, 2010
8:05 am
Venters was dominant in first half of season but he’s a big risk now. I’d go with Kimbrel,Moylan,Wagner,and Beachy instead of Venters out of the pen. Which Venters will show up when he’s called upon ? Jekyll or Hyde ?
Chipper Jones
October 6th, 2010
8:07 am
If I were the Giants I’d pitch three rookies. We all know how we struggle against unseen rookies…
Chipper Jones
October 6th, 2010
8:08 am
Hey Mac, if you are reading this text me bro.
Chipper Jones
October 6th, 2010
8:10 am
I’ll be glad when the season is over. I hear those big deer calling my name out in Texas. We still on for December, right Mac ?
Ted Abernathy
October 6th, 2010
8:34 am
Typically in playoffs with the best pitchers in each lineup, it comes down to defense. Braves are last in that area.
We still would have beaten the Twins in the World Series if Pendleton had been guarding the third base line 9th inning game 7.
k483
October 6th, 2010
9:41 am
Please explain to me why Cox isn’t putting Glaus, the only proven 3rd baseman left, in the lineup.
CRMAC300
October 6th, 2010
10:08 am
Empty seat, you are an idiot! Braves in the Central! Where were those Phillies while the Braves were winning 14 straight division titles? Guess they should have moved to the Central! Philly fans have a collective IQ below the Mendoza Line. Suprised they can find their way to that bandbox ballpark! Braves over the Giants in five! If you are on a Braves blog, support your team! Philly fans can’t spell blog!
Ja-Hey the Hero
October 6th, 2010
10:29 am
The season started with them at something like 25-1 odds to win the world series… halfway home
Chaos
October 6th, 2010
11:07 am
Schultz as usual you got it right! The Braves only weakness is defense and it has been all year. We can outlast any pitching staff and don’t forget our record with 5 or more runs! This will be Bobby’s swan song, he’s going out on top!
JackLemon
October 6th, 2010
11:23 am
The Braves will get past the Giants, and they will win their series if they face the Reds. If the Braves face the Phillies they will lose because the Braves feel “INTIMIDATED” when playing the Phillies and somehow there is a paralysis of lazziness that comes over the Braves where they are clueless and somehow play lousy baseball when playing the Phills. The Phillies KNOW and the Braves know that they are better than the Phillies top to bottom, but their is a mental, phsychotic problem that the Braves face Philadelphia that the Braves somehow feel the Phillies team is full of muscle bound “Popeyes eating spinach” or something. Its ridiculous because on paper the Braves are far superior to the Phillies, but there is a MENTAL BLOCK when the Braves play the Phillies that cause paralysis over the Braves, preventing the Braves from playing up to and beyond their potential when playing the “INFERIOR” Phillies.
Katherine
October 6th, 2010
11:30 am
Don’t forget Glaus won a world series with the angels…..
Katherine
October 6th, 2010
11:34 am
Oh and anyone ignorant enough to say the town and region aren’t behind the braves all the way wasn’t at turner field this past weekend….it was awesome.
CRMAC300
October 6th, 2010
11:35 am
Glaus has not really faced live pitching in a couple of months. I am surprised he is even on the post season roster.
GhostRider
October 6th, 2010
12:57 pm
NEWSFLASH: THE ATLANTA BRAVES HAVE THE ABILITY TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES THIS YEAR SENDING BOBBY COX OFF TO RETIREMENT WITH A BANG!!!! If you are asking me do I think the Braves will win the world series, the answer is absolutely NO. The Braves are certainly capable, but how can a team get serious about playing baseball and playing professionally, when near the end of the year, prior to the last 6 games against the Phillies and Marlins, the Braves record against the Pirates, Marlins, Nationals and Phillies was 3-9, with them losing 9 out of 12 games. That folks isnt good enough to beat anyone. Its not so much the losses that bothered me its who they lost to that just rocked my world. Ok I can understand losing three straight to the Phillies, but to go 3-6 against Pirates, Marlins and Nationals to me is just unacceptable. Pirates and Nationals are the two worst teams in the league and you go 2-4 against those pathetic teams. The only thing that saved the Braves was that they WOKE UP THE LAST GAME OF THE SEASON to secure a playoff berth. What if they hadnt? the season would have been a complete waste. To me its ridiculous to play 161 games with your future totally undecided, and you are forced to play the last game of the year (game 162), COMING UP WITH ONE SOLID GAME DURING THE REGULAR YEAR to make the post-season in a game that you barely won and had to hang on for dear life to salt away. Its nonsense and it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. I have no faith in the Braves at all. As I have mentioned in many other blogs, the Braves would be favored to win the world series now if they only had Martin Prado in uniform and ready to play. Without Prado its still possible but its going to take an incredible amount of luck to pull it off.
What happened to Chop Chick?
October 6th, 2010
1:02 pm
Anyone know?
What happened to Chop Chick?
October 6th, 2010
1:04 pm
“Everybody here knows that Halladay,Hamels,Oswalt are unbeatable in a short series.”
Oswalt is very beatable in a short series. Just ask the Braves teams who beat him up when he was with Houston all those years.
Halladay has never been to the post season so…..
Hamels is beatable but only by the New York Yankees.
Tally Whacker
October 6th, 2010
1:56 pm
Matt Cain will be the 3rd starter.
Tally Whacker
October 6th, 2010
1:58 pm
Oswalt dominated the Braves in post season. The year that Beltran owned da Braves !
Jimmy's Johnson
October 6th, 2010
2:00 pm
Braves need offense to be offensive !
Jimmy's Johnson
October 6th, 2010
2:01 pm
Cowboys need to get rid of Tony Romo.
Chief Pitchanono
October 6th, 2010
7:51 pm
The first key is of course is starting pitching, it has to remain strong, which shouldn’t be too hard against this Giants lineup. Second – play good defense, if you don’t, you lose in the playoffs – end of story. Third key – Offense -The Braves have to play some good small ball and try to score early. Be ready to bunt away boys. Manufacture some runs and then get a timely hit or two. I think thats the biggest key for this team-finding away to score. If they can do this they can win this series.
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