Three Braves’ keys in playoffs (and the long odds in Vegas)
Derrek Lee, who homered in Sunday's 8-7 win over Philadelphia, is a key bat for Braves in playoffs.
Newsflash: The Braves are long shots.
According to the online sportsbook Bodog.com, which generally reflects the odds in Las Vegas, the Braves are 12-1 to win the World Series. That’s last among the eight postseason teams, behind Philadelphia (2-1), New York Yankees (7-2), Tampa Bay (9-2), San Francisco (7-1), Minnesota (8-1), Cincinnati (11-1) and Texas (11-1). Bodog lists the Braves as plus-550 to win the National League pennant, the equivalent of 11-2, behind Philadelphia (1-1.4), San Francisco (3-1) and Cincinnati (5-1).
The longest World Series match-up odds are Braves vs. Rangers at 28-1; the shortest are the Phillies vs. Yankees at 7-2.
So now that you realize just how much money you can make when the Braves win it all — pause for effect — the question becomes: How do the Braves get past the Giants?
This figures to be a low-scoring series. The Giants and Braves are the two lowest-scoring teams with the two lowest staff ERAs in playoffs. So statistics suggest four runs would win a game. Maybe three. Maybe two.
That said, here are three keys for the Braves (beyond the obvious of pitching):
♦ 1. Defense. It has been horrible. Some of that can be attributed to injuries but it really hasn’t been good all year. The Braves finished with 126 errors this season, tied for the third most in the majors behind only Washington and Pittsburgh (127), who had a combined 195 losses. After third baseman Brooks Conrad committed errors in three straight games (including the first two games of the Philadelphia series), manager Bobby Cox flopped Conrad with second baseman Omar Infante in the field. Result: They both committed errors. That just can’t happen, particularly in a low-scoring series. Alex Gonzalez’ 19 errors also ranked low (as in bad) among major league shortstops this season.
♦ Derrek Lee: He actually had a couple of key two-out hits, as well as a home run, in the Philadelphia series. He is hitting .287 (37 for 129) in 39 games as a Brave, which is solid. But he needs to be a run-producer and bring some power in this series. His three home runs in 129 at-bats (151 plate appearances) in Atlanta aren’t enough. Note: In three postseasons with Florida (2003) and the Chicago Cubs (2007-08), Lee is hitting .263 with one homer and eight RBIs.
♦ Omar Infante: Before the season-finale against the Phillies, Infante was hitting .172 (11 for 64) in his previous 16 games. Then he keyed a four-run fourth-inning with a two-run triple and went two-for-five. He is the best remaining hitter on the team, bats leadoff and will key whatever rallies the Braves put together.
So what do you think the keys are to this series?
By the way, checked our poll from yesterday on your playoff predictions. After over 5,400 votes, 43 percent of you believe the Braves will win one round of the playoffs, ahead of lose in the first round (26), win the World Series (22), and win the National League pennant (9). I’ll leave the poll open if you still want to vote.
(I’m off to San Francisco tonight. I’ll start blogging from there Wednesday.)
♦♦♦
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185 comments Add your comment
Ted Turner
October 5th, 2010
6:16 pm
Hence your name…
dawg4u
October 5th, 2010
6:20 pm
If the Braves make it to the WS, would Bobby Cox be allowed to manage the NL in the All star game next year or would it be the Braves manager in 2011.
Brendan
October 5th, 2010
6:24 pm
Every year, a guy in my office bets $50 the Texas Rangers will win the World Series. He’s been doing this for 26 years now. I asked him if he’s excited about their chances this year. He said, “Frankly, after working this many years, he might as well go the ‘pension’ retirement route, rather than the “hit the baseball lottery” route.” The Texas Rangers were supposed to be his “big ticket out” of the working world. Oh well. Maybe, one fine day, the Rangers will capture the pennant.
As for the Braves, Bobby Cox has three more games in which to be outmanaged, left in his career. I just hope the attendance is good, as the Braves attempt to force the series back to the West Coast. Go Braves! And Bobby, please don’t fall asleep in the sixth inning, only to awake from your slumber in the 8th inning, when it’s “too late” to make a meaningful pitching change.
bushwacker
October 5th, 2010
6:24 pm
You are right Hillbilly Deluxe.
By the way Hillbilly Deluxe, i come from a long line of Scotch/Irish hillbillys that have been in Appalachia since the 1600’s.
What does the Deluxe part mean, you got to waer shoes in the winter and summer??
LOL
GO BRAVES!
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October 5th, 2010
6:30 pm
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Brendan
October 5th, 2010
6:31 pm
Allright, Jeff. Here are my three (3) keys to the Braves postseason.
1. Drink lots and lots of beer. This way, it doesn’t really matter who wins.
2. Remember Bobby Cox for who he used to be. Then reminisce. We remember David Justice fondly, now.
3. It’s okay to manufacture runs. Getting ‘em on, then getting ‘em over, rewards you with wins. Can the Braves successfully lay down a bunt, when there are men on 1st and 2nd? Can they “sac fly” a run home, when there’s 1 out, and a man on 3rd? Will the Braves even ATTEMPT a “hit-n-run” in this series? Defensively, I just want to see the Braves take the “sure” out, rather than commiting a slew of errors trying to aggressively tackle the lead baserunner.
THE CURSE OF DAVID JUSTICE WILL BE BROKEN THIS YEAR
October 5th, 2010
6:33 pm
WATCH THE BANDWAGON RIDERS COME OUT OF THE WOODWORK!
Braves Fan Since "80
October 5th, 2010
6:33 pm
I agree with the article…. but at the AllStar break this was the story…… Management made matters worse with the trade at short but Chipper went down and gonzales got better…..Prado going down the Braves lost the most consistant hitter over the past two seasons…..
We are who we thought we were…. a scrappy bunch…… no speed no bats for power and light avg…. great pitching…. I am hoping for lightning in a bottle otherwise we have to chalk this season up to growth and a sign of times to come
klmbrave
October 5th, 2010
6:36 pm
What does it take to be General Manager for the Braves? Obviously you don’t have to know anything about talent and free agents? Please get rid of Wren, what in the world did he see in Melky, Glaus, Ankiel, McClouth, and Gonzalez, there is no upside in any of them. Everyone of them plays like their insane “Doing the same thing over and over and expecting change. Wren you are the same doing the same thing over and over you must go. These guys could not play on my Sunday night mens softball league. I am embarrassed as a brave fan when Melky is in the line-up. There has to be better minor league prospects that can play better than him, if not then the minors are real short of talent. Give me one tool that he brings to the braves, he can’t hit, no power, terrible fielder, inaccurate arm, and slow, can’t bend over to field a grounder. Why is he on the team? Why does Bobby play him?
THE CURSE OF DAVID JUSTICE WILL BE BROKEN THIS YEAR
October 5th, 2010
6:37 pm
LEE GONZO AND HINSKE WILL COME THRU,REMEMBER THEY HAVE RINGS!
James
October 5th, 2010
6:43 pm
Go Braves!
Bama fans = retarded
October 5th, 2010
6:57 pm
The 2003 Marlins had longer odds of winning and they went on to beat the NY Yankees with a bunch of no-name players.
E-MAN
October 5th, 2010
6:58 pm
Last time I checked the Braves won 91 games this season. Thats a .562 winning pct. tied for 5th place in the majors.Anyone who thinks they’re not qualified to be in the playoffs is an idiot plain and simple.
jfreak13713
October 5th, 2010
6:59 pm
Put $500 on Rangers and Braves! Well, maybe $5.00? Hey its playoff time and anythingis possible, but reality is too! Good luck boys!
Bama fans = retarded
October 5th, 2010
7:00 pm
E-MAN
The Giant struggled to win the West. The Yankees really struggled to win the wild card. Tampa doesn’t look so hot either. Minn also struggled.
The only team that has not struggled lately is Philly. But hey, the Braves had a MUCH better pitching staff in the 90s and they only managed to win 1 WS.
Strange things happen in the post season.
Hillbilly Deluxe
October 5th, 2010
7:01 pm
bushwacker
The Deluxe part of the name is just a play on words, taken from a song. Never wore shoes in summer ’til I was grown.
Bama fans = retarded
October 5th, 2010
7:02 pm
Hillbilly Deluxe
How’s Bookman doing these days now that he’s finally figured out that the Democraps will lose big in November?
Bama fans = retarded
October 5th, 2010
7:03 pm
THE CURSE OF DAVID JUSTICE WILL BE BROKEN THIS YEAR
I totally forgot that Lee was playing with the Marlins in 2003. Where did Gonzo play and win a WS?
Brian
October 5th, 2010
7:04 pm
Win it all. Haha. They won’t even win one game. THis is the worst team to ever make the postseason.
Schulz...
October 5th, 2010
7:08 pm
Jeff, Please don’t spread ignorance by proclaiming Infante is our best hitter. He is league average. A high batting average, little power, and few walks does not equal a good hitter.
Uga fans = Losers
October 5th, 2010
7:10 pm
Yep, losers. Loser team too. Nice 1-4 record.
Roll Tide.
Bama fans = retarded
October 5th, 2010
7:19 pm
“THis is the worst team to ever make the postseason.”
No, actually it’s not the worst of any of the Braves teams who’ve made the postseason.
Lisa
October 5th, 2010
7:24 pm
I’m kind of disappointed in the coverage about the Braves,,,I don’t feel the excitement in the air. In Philadelphia they would be having full page sections in the paper, every home would have a banner, Phillies cupcakes are the store, special shops open to sell Phillies gear, every citizen would be wearing red and there would be specials pre-empting shows to talk about the Phils….all I see here in the ATL is a guy wearing a hat and a 5 minute mention in the news.
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
October 5th, 2010
7:51 pm
If we give away runs on defense, in a short series, we’re done.
Arno
October 5th, 2010
7:53 pm
Although it was just the Mets, the Braves swept the last series in NY while committing zero errors. Good defense gives them a good chance against the Giants.
Stuart
October 5th, 2010
8:14 pm
Well, I hope KK has made the postseason roster and is starting game 4 in a 4 man rotation… He’s well rested, so he should be our ace!
mike
October 5th, 2010
8:28 pm
Spot on, Lisa. This city HAS to get their heads out of their collective A$$es and support this team. That does include you AJC, WSB, WAGA, WQXI and whoever is around with a camera or microphone. Put player profiles on page one. Lead off with players stories in your newscasts. Tell your weather people to give the forecast WHERE THE GAME IS FIRST. i was born and raised in Atlanta. Cater to us. not the transplants.
Lisa
October 5th, 2010
8:42 pm
I am a transplant..just thought I could catch some Braves fever.
Wreckmaniac
October 5th, 2010
8:51 pm
Three keys:
1. defense as you stated
2. Production from not just Lee but also Gonzalez and Conrad
3. A strong start by Lowe
The biggest question by far is whether or not this team can score runs. 4 or 5 per game will be needed.
dawg4u
October 5th, 2010
9:05 pm
The Giants lineup is as weak as ours and their starters don’t really strike that much fear in anyone. Heck they were 6-12 against the Padres. We were 4-2. The only players who would even remotely concern anyone are Posey and Sandoval. Posey is in a big slump right now. I would take our starters over theirs and our weak lineup over theirs. Our bullpen is better. The only advantage they have is home field so if we win one game in Frisco then we will advance to the NLCS when we get back to Atlanta. We should sweep these guys!
WestOfAthens
October 5th, 2010
9:08 pm
I feel good, personally, about this series w/the Giants
Braves have come this far, why stop now?
Braves In 5
NCBRAVESFAN
October 5th, 2010
9:22 pm
Empty Seat- Thats why you play 162 games in a season not just 30 games. We put up the best record in the NL the first half of the season and yall put up the best the second after the break. The standings dont just show September ITS THE WHOLE YEAR YOU IDIOT.
yoyo
October 5th, 2010
9:25 pm
Jeff Schultz is the smartest man in sports, isn’t he? He makes all of you stupid, doesn’t he? He stated that braves have to play good defense, and hit well. He forgot pitching. He should have told you a team with the most runs at the end of the game wins. What a dumb***.
Brad Komminsk
October 5th, 2010
9:38 pm
The Braves have been the favorite for many a post-season and came up short. I’ve said it until I’m blue in the face, the playoffs are a crapshoot. The team has good enough pitching to win close games, and with a little luck, they could honestly go all the way. You’re telling me that the 2003 Marlines or the 2001 Diamondbacks were a great team? No. They had some great starters and a few timely hits. The Braves can go 11-8 and be champs. That’s all it takes. I’ve realized that it’s actually tougher to make it this far than to win it all.
southern hope
October 5th, 2010
9:41 pm
3 keys to surviving the Braves playoffs (Fan version):
> Figure out how to re-work that bargain with God…you know, the one you made last week when you said, “I don’t care if they win a single game….just let them into the Playoffs.”
> Practice not-caring. This is a real art form with our Braves…it involves turning off/on radios, TVs, based on score in a specific inning. Walking outside. Walking inside. Walking in circles. All of this is accepted behavior.
> Offer your sleepless nights up to the greater good. You think you’re going to give it to, say, 11:15 and then “dang it. I’ll just find out who won in the morning” but the reality is you’re going to lay there for awhile…and then sneak back to radio….gamecast….TV through neighbor’s open window. Sleep is for teams who didn’t make it this far.
Hang tough Braves fans! Las Vegas is betting on us.
>
Empty Seat at Turner Field should be called Empty Head on This Blog
October 5th, 2010
9:46 pm
All you want to do is to bring up the negative side of everything.. i do know that the odds of the Braves winning the World Series are better than the odds of you having 2 remaining brain cells to rub together. The Braves will sell out their playoff games and scalpers will be waiting to sell you fake playoff tickets for 1000 dollars. and you will happily pay it, and then look stupidly on when the ushers won’t let you in. i’ll be looking for you outside Turner Field. i can always
use another 2 grand.
raindawg722
October 5th, 2010
10:02 pm
Not only is Omar Infante (.321 BA) a better hitter than Heyward (.277 BA) or McCann (.269 BA), so are the departed Gregor Blanco (.310 BA) and David Ross (.289 BA). Heyward and McCann are lucky they didn’t lose their starting jobs.They probably will when the Braves get a new manager next year that focuses on all these newfangled stats just like Jeff.
Brian needs a brain
October 5th, 2010
11:05 pm
No Brian… You really meant worst team to make the preseason… Because you forgot that all of them do. Go sit on Empty Seat and give him a thrill.
Maestro
October 5th, 2010
11:06 pm
The key to the Braves winning is for them to get back to working the count and being patient at the plate especially when there are runners on base. Guys like Gonzalez swing at the first fast ball they see rather than waiting on one they can handle. Wait on your pitch guys and you’ll do great.
jharris
October 5th, 2010
11:15 pm
I love my Braves, but I’m going to say this. With my heart, the Braves will beat the Giants in about 4 games. Here is what they could do: Win game 1 against Lincecum in a low scoring game, Lose game 2 in a blow out like 9-3, Hanson can’t bring it too many walks, win game 3 at Turner field with Hudson pitching ok, but not having a decision, Braves win in their last at bat in 13 innnings. Braves clinch it by winning a decisive game in decided by the bullpens. My head tells me the Braves will be beaten in 4 games. Get swept the first 2 games in SF. Comeback and win big under Hudson in game 3, but in game 4 get beat decisively because they can’t hit. Too much to overcome, if we had Chipper and Medlin a different story we would sweep the Giants 3-0. The thing that may help the Braves is that the Giants don’t hit very well. Just like the Braves.
TheAntiMe
October 5th, 2010
11:42 pm
I’m thinking that the fact that the Braves are viewed by so many as long-shots may actually work in their favor. It’s painfully obvious that they were pressing during the final month which appeared to have them flailing away at pitches out of the strike zone after they had been so patient at the plate in the previous 5 months.
Hopefully, now that no one expects anything out of them anyway, the pressure will be off and they can play their game without being so very tight and afraid to make a mistake as they appeared to be during the month of September.
DLowe
October 5th, 2010
11:51 pm
I think these are the 3 keys to Braves beating Giants.
1)Buster Posey breaks his arm.
2)Tim Lincecum pulls a shoulder muscle.
3)Barry Zito goes surfing for the entire series.
Bill
October 6th, 2010
12:01 am
If Bobby can get his team to play little ball ! Advance runners ! Work the pitchers ! Hustle on the bases ! Get the ball in from the outfield ! And most of all “Stay awake for a whole game” ! Some of the base running this year has been at least suspect to drug testing…..I would pick Diaz to be the deciding factor in this first series. I think he’d come through if Bobby would show a vote of confidence…..Oh! Did I mention ? Leave Pendleton in Atlanta for some R&R…….And hope he’s moved to Philly before you get back…..
MitchC
October 6th, 2010
12:07 am
Jeff, I agree with your keys to this series. If the Braves continue to throw the ball around as a team in the field. (A-la Brooks Conrad, who, by the way, might be my all time least favorite Brave, because the guy simply cannot field a lick). they will go down in this series.
I will be surprised if this is a quick and short series. I think the Braves will come motivated and ready to play, especially because it’s Bobby’s last season. However, I just think with as bad as the Braves were on the road this year, it is unlikely they will win this series.
I will stick with my prediction of Giants in Five games. I think the home team might win all five games. SF might win the first two in SF. We can take the next two at home, and the Giants will finish us in five games.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but, your colleague Mark Bradley predicted third place at the beginning of the season for this team. I said they would win the Wild Card, and I was right. Let’;s see if I will end up being right again.
TheAntiMe
October 6th, 2010
12:16 am
3)Barry Zito goes surfing for the entire series.
It seems that Barry Zito (9-14 4.15 ERA) has been surfing for most of the season, particularly since the All-Star break. He went 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA over his last 11 outings and 10 starts and only had one victory in his last 15 appearances. The stretch included a career-worst nine-game losing streak from July 21 to Sept. 14.
In fact, it has been speculated by some that the Giants may in fact leave Zito off of the roster for the shorter NLDS, and then possibly add him for the remaining post-season series’.
D Cannon
October 6th, 2010
12:17 am
In years past, the Braves were many times the odds maker’s favorite to win it all and they routinely choked under the pressure. This year, no one expects anything from them except an early exit from the playoffs. This equals NO PRESSURE and might allow them to relax and enjoy the ride and play winning baseball. Look at the facts….several times during the current season the Braves had the best record in baseball….and even with the loss their two superstars…..they were within 5 games of the best record at the end of a 162 game season. The Braves might surprise a lot of people…don’t count them out just yet!
Najeh Davenpoop
October 6th, 2010
12:21 am
The key to the series is simple: our pitching has to be better than their pitching. Chances are whichever team reaches 4 runs first in any game wins. Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe have to be on top of their games, and Bobby Cox has to use the bullpen properly (i.e. no 2-inning outings for Venters or Wagner). The Braves are not great offensively, but the Giants are not that much better.
TheAntiMe
October 6th, 2010
1:20 am
I totally agree, Najeh. In fact, I have seen some folks from various cities claiming that the Braves have no chance against the Giants due to the Braves run-challenged offense. These folks would do well to realize that of the the 8 playoff teams, the Giants (697 Runs Scored) are the only team that has scored less runs that the Braves (738 Runs Scored).
J-Hey
October 6th, 2010
1:22 am
Offensive Keys: Omar and Jason, starts right at the top. You start getting these guys on consistently and you start scoring runs
Starting Pitching keys: Lowe and Hanson
Bullpen key: Venters
benchwarmer
October 6th, 2010
1:27 am
While i really havn’t kept up with the guy’s post pitching career that much, I thought that Ankiel was a better hitter than he has shown since becoming a Brave. Are there any reasons as to why he is doing so poorly. Does he need glasses or maybe a “shrink”?