LIVE BLOG: Here are the scenarios for Braves’ playoff hopes
Bobby Cox climbs steps to the dugout for what he hopes isn't the last time. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Hello. Wasn’t this supposed to be the just-sit-and-relax day?
Two days ago, the Braves arrived at the ballpark believing they had the National League wild card about wrapped up, and so did most of us. Their magic number to clinch was two. They had an upcoming series against Philadelphia, which already had the East Division wrapped up and had scratched two scheduled starters (Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt).
The team chasing the Braves: San Diego, which was reeling and going to San Francisco for three games. This didn’t seem to be an issue.
But here we are. Two Braves losses (11-5 and 7-0) and two Padres wins later, the teams are tied and Turner Field is panic central. The Bobby Cox celebrations have been dwarfed. The Braves have the right guy on the mound today, Tim Hudson. He’ll be opposed by Cole Hamels, but for possibly only two innings. Oswalt also may pitch an inning or two.
Braves take batting practice before today's game -- and they can use it.
The Braves game starts at 1:35 p.m. If they win, they’ll clinch at least a one-game playoff. If they lose, they have to hope the Padres also lose. In either case, they must wait for the end of the Padres-Giants game, which starts at 4:05 p.m. EDT.
OK, here are the four win-lose, Braves-Padres-Giants scenarios:
♦ Braves win; Padres lose: Easy. Braves win the wild card and face the West champion Giants beginning Thursday.
♦ Braves win; Padres win: Mayhem. There is a three-way tie between all three teams and two — TWO — one-game playoffs for the first time in history. The Padres and Giants would play 0n Monday. The winner would be the division champion. The loser would come to Atlanta for a one-game playoff to determine the wild card Tuesday.
♦ Braves lose, Padres lose: Giants win the West and the Braves and Padres have a playoff Monday at Turner Field to determine the wild card.
♦ Braves lose, Padres win: Braves are out and the Padres are in as the wild card.
Here’s the optimist’s view: There’s only one out of four scenarios (Braves lose, Padres win) in which the Braves don’t play at least one more game after today.
Here’s the pessimist’s view: That’s the scenario we’ve witnessed the last two nights.
One more thing: Cox has made a significant lineup change, shifting Brooks Conrad from third base to second base and moving Omar Infante to third. Conrad’s two errors led to seven unearned runs in the first two games of this series.
That’s it for now. I’m heading down to the field for batting practice and I’ll be back up shortly. Chat with you soon.
♦♦♦
You may have missed . . .
♦ Braves lose and stretch out the drama a little longer
♦ Braves’ improbable road to playoffs almost complete
♦ Weekend Predictions: Falcons, Jackets win (Dogs? Feh)
♦♦♦
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396 comments Add your comment
ChrisfromSacramento, Ca
October 3rd, 2010
12:40 pm
I prayed last night and this morning for this lineup.
Omar
Diaz
Heyward
Mccann
Lee
Hintzke
Gonzalez
Mccloth
And every arm ready to go.
Please sack up once and play lose. With Hammels and Oswalt going tree innings total, there are no excuses and no realy why this cant be a win. Put the pressure and post a win before the Giants Pads game.
GET IT DONE!
Largo
October 3rd, 2010
12:40 pm
Start Ross against Hamels today, righty against lefty plus he is batting about 200 points better than McCann right now. Bring McCann back when the Phillies put Oswalt in the game. Anything to get some offense and besides, Ross is a better catcher than McCann anyway.
Steve
October 3rd, 2010
12:41 pm
Ha ha. Good idea Jeff regarding Best Buy. Think they would care if I brought peanuts? After being at the game all day and evening yesterday, I don’t need a drink at a bar. MLB.com it is.
Marvin
October 3rd, 2010
12:41 pm
Braveheart, well you know it will press them into a ton of bad at bats and will eventually get to the pitching because they have to be perfect.
How about that Wren guy? Man, does this guy know how to find the scrubs or what? Ankiel, Farnsworth, Melky, McLouth, and I’d almost even throw Gonzalez in that mix if he didn’t have a tad bit of power. However, his defensive screw ups and his constant K’s and pop outs should get him in the scrub category. That to go along with a puty attitude if things don’t go his way. Huh, I thought we shipped a guy out because of his pouty play and poor attitude? Well, we got the exact same mess in return, but I guess Gonzalez is a better clubhouse guy and doesn’t rattle Cox as much, so it’s ok. Whatever.
ChrisfromSacramento, Ca
October 3rd, 2010
12:41 pm
loose
Marvin
October 3rd, 2010
12:47 pm
I tell ya, if Diaz can somehow have a good game at the plate, than we have a chance. Hudson will pitch his heart out. He might get hit and give up some runs, but it won’t be a lack of effort. It’ll be because he’s going on short rest again and he’s facing the best lineup in the league.
McCann has killed us. Absolutely killed the team with his bat and glove. Imagine if he’s hitting like the Mac of old and how relaxed it would make the guys around him? I know we wouldn’t be fighting for our playoff hope lives. The kid needs to wear glasses. He’s blind and is too stubborn and immature to understand this.
Darryl Blackberry
October 3rd, 2010
12:48 pm
Steve: do you have the MLB Network? I’m sure they’ll be “looking in” to these games more often than not.
Russ, the Temporary Mascot
October 3rd, 2010
12:52 pm
I used to have trouble with “there” and “their” and “they’re” until I started blogging and found out they can be used interchangeably. Little dogs can learn a lot reading blogs. I had trouble with “lose” and “loose”, too, but I never called anybody a looser like some people do on this blog. As for today’s game, I am eager to see Bobby’s last lineup card and I am sure it is going to Cooperstown. I suggest they laminate it before he handles it much.
MitchC
October 3rd, 2010
12:53 pm
Jeff, for the pitching rotations for the postseason, the second worst scenario, other than the Braves being eliminated today of course, would be a Braves win/ Padres win. In such a case, we would have to sit around until Tuesday, to see who the NL West winner is, and it would give us about 36 hours before the opening of the NLDS on the road, where ever that would take place.
Although we would all be holding our breath during the Braves/Padres game today if the Braves were to lose, to make sure we aren’t eliminated today, a Braves lose/Padres lose wouldnt be the worst, because then we have the one game playoff at home.
Knowing how this season has gone, it will probably end up being a Braves win/Padres win. In such a case, whoever our opponent is for the NLDS would be very well rested, and it would be a very tired Braves team that would have to travel to meet our opponent for the opening of the Thursday NLDS
Choochie
October 3rd, 2010
12:55 pm
Jeff -
Who’s colder….the Braves or Richt’s Dawgs? This is all ugly. Padres win and get in over the Braves and the Vols beat UGA 24-14
Marvin
October 3rd, 2010
12:57 pm
Here’s my hope for the offseason ,,, get rid of Gonzalez. Somehow, someway, get this scrub off our team because for one, he’s having a career year as far as his power goes. He will not repeat this in any way next year and probably for the remainder of his career. Plus he’s got a bad attitude and makes stupid plays at SS. Get him out of here! Please!
Get themselves a power hitter for either LF or CF and sure up the bench with a couple of vets. Same with the pen. For SS position, I’d get a speedy top of the lineup guy to play that position. Also need him to play solid defense at SS. Heck, see if they can grab Valdez from Philly this offseason. i don’t think he’s a speedy guy, but plays great SS with a plus arm and can hit a little bit. Almost anything is better than that scrub Gonzalez.
Greene Hornet
October 3rd, 2010
12:57 pm
I’m a Dawgs, Braves, Falcons, Hawks, and Thrashers fan. I’m rooting hard for the Braves today, but I have to say, thank goodness for the Falcons as that the past month has been horrible sportswise for me.
MitchC
October 3rd, 2010
1:06 pm
I;m sorry that Bobby feels he has to play Conrad today. Maybe there are no other options… but.. the guy has cost us two games already. I dont know if moving him from third base to second base will help, but, he could still air mail an errant throw into the seats that could cost us the ballgame.
Law of averages says we will win today, and avoid the sweep. I’m not being “arrogant” after how this team played the last two days, its just a hunch. I also think that there’s a strong likelihood the three way tie could happen.
If I was a betting man (I’m not), and I had to place bets on today, my bet would be a Braves win/Padres win, and the three way tie.
We’ll know in about six hours if I’m right.
Chopper
October 3rd, 2010
1:07 pm
Maybe Bobby should pull a Richt and break out some black jerseys. That worked, didn’t it? Well, wait a minute…..
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:12 pm
Jeff, if you took that pic of Bobby, I want a copy. Just awesome.
Georgia Avenue
October 3rd, 2010
1:12 pm
Here’s the question: Can his team even compete in the playoffs?? I don’t think so; minus Jones and Prado, they are a mere shadow of the July & August Braves. Next year? Not this team.
ABravesFan
October 3rd, 2010
1:13 pm
Let’s get it done today, Braves!
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:14 pm
No pie today. In honor of #6, just a tip of the cap and a pat on the back.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:15 pm
BTW, my washing machine just exploded. Gotta wait.
TTTT-Thumbody Thed Thats Thupid!
October 3rd, 2010
1:16 pm
Someone said yesterday the Braves were a good “Sunday” team. Hate to burst your bubble, but no, they are not, thanks to BC resting regulars a lot on Sundays. I recall one game on Sunday in which he rested 4 at one time. Then some say he has nothing to do with the losses. The Braves record, for the record, on Sundays is 12-13. I know at least some of those games were winnable wih the regular lineup. He would even rest “hot” players on Sunday. I complained about it then, so this is just an “I told you so” reminder. Wonder where they would be if they had won at least 5 of those games? Well, shucks, they would have been tied for the division and these 3 games would have been huge! Not only are these type decisions “killers” but his pitching changes usually backfire. He always inserts Kimbrel at the wrong time. BW, Kimbrel has 38 strikeous in 20 innings. Will be interesting to see how he uses Kimbrel today, after Venters failure yesterday.
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:18 pm
MitchC — I’m sure Braves just care about getting there at this point. Luxuries of rest and setting up pitching rotation are long gone.
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:18 pm
Choochie — Braves’ season coming down to the last day. Dawgs’ season won’t. That’s my answer.
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:19 pm
That steps’ picture? I didn’t take that one, Curtis Compton of our staff did.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:22 pm
I need Mr. Compton’s e-mail. Great work.
Around The Horn
October 3rd, 2010
1:23 pm
Hudson shuts the Phils lineup down today and the Braves win 3-2!
Ted Striker
October 3rd, 2010
1:23 pm
I’m awake everybody.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:24 pm
BK flute solo guy is a marked man.
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jer
October 3rd, 2010
1:27 pm
If you happen to read this Brooks, remember if it were not for you the Braves would have been out of the playoff picture before this last series. Go get ‘em!
Matt k
October 3rd, 2010
1:28 pm
This is not good…Philly has all their regulars in there.
TTTT-Thumbody Thed Thats Thupid!
October 3rd, 2010
1:31 pm
Ted Striker, the question is, is Brooks Conrad awake? After 2 nights of no sleep, with “red puffy eyes, he needs to be wide awake at 2nd base today. That’s actually a more important and critical position than 3rd base!
Mr. Baseball
October 3rd, 2010
1:32 pm
This is it, no joke, I’m not kidding, we have to sweep the Pirates and Nats – oh wait, we didn’t do that. We have to take 2 out of 3 from the Phillies in their home park – oh wait, we didn’t do that either. We have to take care of business and sweep the Phillies at home since they have nothing to play for and we have to show Bobby our devotion – oh wait, we haven’t done that either.
Never mind. We really, really have to win today – because if we do, we can go to the post season for the first time in five years, backing in as a Wild Card so we can get swept by the Giants in 3 games. I love a plan!!
At least we would not have to suffer the indignity (AGAIN) of losing the last game of the season at home in front of a crowd overpopulated with fans from the opposing team. San Francisco is too far a drive. So we have that going for us, which is nice.
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:33 pm
Chef Tim — ccompton@ajc.com
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:35 pm
much appreciated.
Innocent Bystander
October 3rd, 2010
1:35 pm
I think the Falcons are sacrificing their game vs. the Niners so the Braves can borrow the “best team in Atlanta” crown for the day and win.
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:36 pm
Thumbody — I was thinking same thing. Not sure moving Conrad to second qualifies as “hiding” him.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:37 pm
9-1 Suday day games are the local 9.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:37 pm
Conrad’s head in the game .
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:38 pm
Brilliant defensive move! Brilliant!
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:40 pm
Corad to attone today. There, I said it.
SadDawg
October 3rd, 2010
1:40 pm
I think the only question is will the Braves get no-hit today? Yeah, the Dawgs lost to a team who gave up 52 points a couple of weeks ago, and the Folcons are gitting their butts handed to them by a team who have gotten embarrassed the first 3 weeks.
I’m feeling negative today . . .
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:41 pm
Conrad too.
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:41 pm
Brooks Conrad — a vacuum at second base.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:42 pm
Quick and easy.
Around The Horn
October 3rd, 2010
1:43 pm
That should help Conrad relax!
gonzo
October 3rd, 2010
1:44 pm
when will tix go on sale for the play-in game if there is one? and what time will the game be?
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2010
1:46 pm
Gonzo — I’m sure it would be night game because Padres would have to travel here. I’m sure tickets would go on sale almost immediately.
"Chef" Tim Dix
October 3rd, 2010
1:47 pm
New book on J-Hey: Heat in on the hands. Can’t handle it. For now.
curtis jones
October 3rd, 2010
1:49 pm
Same question as gonzo, Jeff: I would think a Monday game with the Padres would be at night, Tuesday in the afternoon….am I right?
Matt k
October 3rd, 2010
1:50 pm
Here’s a question Schultz…How does the team run out of gas? Doesn’t every team play 162 games. I feel that is an excuse, they need better conditioning. Heyward has been horrible, these prolonged slumps that he goes in have been detrimental. Also why do we struggle so much against a guy we have never seen? I mean Philly sure doesn’t have a problem with Mike Minor. Another point is why does Joe Simpson say when our pitcher throws a mistake in the middle of the plate – that you can’t throw a pitch like that because big league hitters don’t miss that. Has he been watching the braves or what!?! Our “big league hitters” miss mistakes all the time!