Good morning: The Braves are not dead yet.
While you were trying to sleep away the memory of the Braves being swept by Philadelphia, San Diego won and San Francisco and Colorado each lost late Wednesday night. So while the Braves have flat-lined in the National League East standings, they’re still one-half game up on the Giants in the wild card race and three up on Colorado (which also has lost three straight).
This is when I like to turn to “Cool Standings.”
We’ve talked about Cool Standings before. In short, it projects a team’s division title, wild card and playoff chances, based on past performance, remaining games and other factors, using basic statistics like a team’s runs scored and against.
Cool Standings has been charting the Braves’ postseason hopes daily. The results look like this:
OK, don’t freak. It’s actually pretty simple.
♦ The blue line represents East Division chances. You’ll notice how that one has plummeted and is almost off the chart.
♦ The black line presents wild card chances.
♦ The red line is overall postseason chances (combination of the blue and the black).
Breaking it down by percentages, Cool Standings indicates the Braves now have a 1.2 percent of winning the East and a 73.7 chance of winning the wild card for an overall postseason chance of 74.9.
The Braves’ playoff chances were as high as 95.8 percent after defeating the New York Mets on Sept. 1. But since then, they’re 8-12 and the Phillies are 17-3.
Logic says the Braves can reel off five of six wins in the next two series against Washington and Florida because both are long gone from the postseason race. But those clubs have been major annoyances to the the Braves, who are only 7-8 against the Nationals and 8-7 against the Marlins.
But Cool Standings says all is well. For now.
How comfortable are you feeling? Do you believe the Braves will still pull this off?
SACK SCHULTZ: I’ll have an update on my slow climb to No. 1 later this week. Meanwhile, there’s still time to join the fun. Click here for more info on the weekly college football picks contest and then sign up at ajc.com/go/sack-schultz.