Braves’ biggest problem may be Rockies, not Phillies (UPDATE: Jurrjens out)
Will Derrek Lee's grand slam Sunday in New York jump start the Braves to the playoffs?
(UPDATED at 3:25 p.m. below with news that rookie pitcher Brandon Beachy will replace starter Jair Jurrjens tonight.)
I’ve never really been a numbers guy, but sometimes in baseball there are numbers that can’t be avoided.
These for example: The Braves are three games back of Philadelphia in the National League East going into tonight’s series opener between the teams. They play the Phillies again in the final weekend of the season.
Loading ...Simple math says if the Braves don’t win at least four out of the six games against Philly, they will have to make up the minimum-three-game deficit in the other six games. That’s not likely to happen.
The Phillies have the pitching advantage in every game in this series: Cole Hamels (3-0, 0.44 in his last five starts) vs. Jair Jurrjens (11 earned runs, 19 hits in his last two) tonight; Roy Halladay vs. Mike Minor Tuesday and Roy Oswalt vs. Tommy Hanson Wednesday.
(UPDATE: The Braves just announced prospect Brandon Beachy will make his major league debut tonight in place of Jurrjens, who has a sore knee. This probably isn’t the way they wanted to go into this series. It means the Braves will be starting rookies on back to back nights: Beachy and Minor.)
Feeling confident?
The Braves are still in decent shape in the wild card race, with leads of 2 1/2 games over San Diego and 3 1/2 over Colorado. But the team they need to worry about the most may be the Rockies.
Below, I’ve listed the standings at the top of the National League East and West Divisions, as well as the wild card race. I’ve also listed the remaining schedule for each of the five teams involved, as well as what each team has done against their remaining opponents this season. Those five teams are listed in order of winning percentage against the opponents.
Finally, I’ve listed how each potential postseason team has fared of late. This is where the Phillies and Rockies really stand out. Even the Braves’ three-game sweep of the New York Mets over the weekend didn’t change the picture much.
Take a look:
♦ East W-L GB Phillies 89-61 — Braves 86-64 3 ♦West W-L GB Giants 84-66 –
Padres 83-66 ½ Rockies 82-67 1 ½ ♦ Wild card GB
Braves 86-64 —
Padres 83-66 2 ½ Rockies 82-67 3 ½ ♦ Remaining schedules
Phillies (12): 3 vs. Braves, 3 vs. Mets, 3 at Nationals, 3 at Braves. Braves (12): 3 at Phillies, 3 at Nationals, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Phillies. Giants (12): 3 at Cubs, 3 at Rockies, 3 vs. Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Padres. Padres (13): 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs. Reds, 4 vs. Cubs, 3 at Giants. Rockies (13): 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Giants, 3 vs. Dodgers, 4 at Cardinals. ♦ Record vs. remaining opponents Padres: vs. Dodgers (8-7), Reds (2-1), Cubs (4-0), Giants (10-5). Total: 24-13 (.649) Rockies: vs. Diamondbacks (9-6). Giants (8-7), Dodgers (7-7), Cardinals (9-6). Total: 33-26 (.559) Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537) Giants: vs. Cubs (3-1), Rockies (7-8), Diamondbacks (10-5), Padres (5-10). Total: 25-24 (.510) Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509) ♦ September Phillies: 15-3 Rockies: 13-5 Giants: 11-6 Braves: 9-9 Padres: 7-11 ♦ Last 30 games Rockies: 21-9 Phillies: 20-10 Giants: 16-14 Braves: 15-15 Padres: 12-18
♦
Bottom line: I think the Braves need to go at least 9-3 to make it to the postseason, if Colorado continues to play near this pace. The other wild card (no pun intended) is what happens if the Rockies win the West. The Braves would be battling the Giants and Padres for the last playoff spot.
So what do you think of the Braves’ chances? I’ve also put up a poll asking the question: How many games of the remaining 12 do the Braves need to win to make the playoffs?
♦
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♦ Matt Ryan overcomes first hellish week (not that he noticed)
♦ Georgia is showing problems are deep and widespread
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248 comments Add your comment
mrcliff
September 20th, 2010
9:14 am
I’m certainly glad the Braves are taking a three game sweep momentum into the Philly series. I hope Bobby is preparing them that this is their series to make or break, and that every pitch counts.
kaminari
September 20th, 2010
9:15 am
WE are in control of our own destiny. I predict we will go 9 & 3. I’m hoping for 12 & O though. Go BRAVES!!
ideaman
September 20th, 2010
9:18 am
Braves win 4 of 6 games with Pjillies, then all of thje rest to win the division byh one game on Bobby Cox’ last home game. Heard it here first.
If I weren’t a fan of the Braves, then I’d be more pessimistic, but that’s the beauty of being a fan” Believing in your team.
mrcliff
September 20th, 2010
9:21 am
Fans, I believe the magic is back. Lee finally comes to life and jacks a g-slammer, even McLouth is back on track. Plus the bench is stocked with potential too.
Turnbull
September 20th, 2010
9:22 am
9-3 for Braves means that they’ll be tied with Rockies for WC IF the Rockies go 13-0!! Bit of a stretch, don’t you think? If Rockies go 11-2, then 7-5 gets the tie. Rockies are dangerous, but 9-3 isn’t a must. I say 7-5 gets it done. That still isn’t going to be easy. If we take 2 from Nats and 2 from Marlins, then we’ll still need to go 3-3 vs. Phils.
A Raider
September 20th, 2010
9:25 am
Just Win, Baby!!!!!!!
mrcliff
September 20th, 2010
9:28 am
I believe the Braves will take two out of three from the Phillies. I’ve just got a good feeling about this. I’m so glad I have tickets for the other Phillies showdown on October 1. Thanks Home Depot!!!
VaBravesfan
September 20th, 2010
9:33 am
Logic tells you nobody is going to win all their games. The Braves need to win about 8 of their 12 and hope the Rockies, Giants and Dodgers beat each other up.
VaBravesfan
September 20th, 2010
9:34 am
I meant Padres
J. Ryder
September 20th, 2010
9:34 am
The Braves will make the Wild Card while the Rockies win the division. Philly wins two of three in this series this week, and Atlanta will recover to win their remaining matchups the rest of the year.
Ron E.
September 20th, 2010
9:34 am
The Braves have more of a problem from a team that trails them by 3.5 games than a team that plays them 6 more times? Sorry. I’m not buying that.
Erik
September 20th, 2010
9:35 am
12-0! BELIEVE…GO BRAVES!!
Alaska Dawg
September 20th, 2010
9:37 am
I am thinking 7-5 will get us in. Kaminari and Eric lay off the Braves Kool-AId. 12-0 is not going to happen.
steve brown
September 20th, 2010
9:38 am
Nuts. The Braves can go 7-5 and get the wild card! Book it!
Tucker T
September 20th, 2010
9:38 am
I agree Jeff. I was very happy to see Colorado lose last night. You are wrong about one thingh though. The sweep of the Mets did help the Braves. They increased their overall wildcard lead from .5 games to 2.5 games.
7-5...
September 20th, 2010
9:39 am
Philly in Philly 1-2
Nats 2-1
Fla 2-1
Philly in Atlanta 2-1
7-5. That might do it, but maybe not. The Div champ is not a realistic goal as of now.
As Raider says, Just Win Baby and all will be fine.
Paul
September 20th, 2010
9:40 am
Notice how the phillies set up their rotation a few days ago to make sure their top 3 all faced the Braves. Good thing Jeff is if they can clinch home field, Charlie will rest some guys for that final 3 game series.
7-5...
September 20th, 2010
9:41 am
Hey, I heard that if JJ can’ t go tonight, Kawakami will be pitching…..
Just kidding. That would be ugly against that lineup.
Tucker T
September 20th, 2010
9:43 am
Jeff
Can you breakdown who will play who in the playoffs depending on who gets in? For example, if the Braves win the wildcard and the Padres win the West, who do the Braves play in the first round. I would much rather play the Reds or the Padres than the Rockies or the Phils.
Steven
September 20th, 2010
9:49 am
The rockies are done. The loss yesterday killed them. They were up big and then lost in 11. Giants will win the West. Braves or Padres will win the wild card. Braves will win it unless they start losing again. Just don’t get swept in philly is all that’s needed.
mountain_jim
September 20th, 2010
9:50 am
I hated that 9th inning comeback yesterday at Philthy… A loss there could have been huge for this series and Braves chances.
Barry
September 20th, 2010
9:51 am
Braves can’t play the phillies first round. That’s basic baseball knowledge 101. You can’t play a team in the first round from the same division
Knuckle Sandwich
September 20th, 2010
9:56 am
START HUDSON ON SHORT REST! There is no excuse to start Minor in this series.
Joey
September 20th, 2010
9:59 am
Braves have no one to blame but themselves for the situation they find themselves in at this point. Hindsight being what it is, if they had beaten the teams (Pirates and Nationals) that they SHOULD beat in the past few weeks they would be in much better shape. You can’t lose 4 out of 6 to the two cellar dwellers in the NL and expect to be in any better shape than they are now. They have to play lights out from here on out and I just don’t know if they can, especially with the Marlins and Nationals still to play and the inexplicable trouble that they have with both teams. They could easily lose 4 of 6 to those teams. Then what?
Barry
September 20th, 2010
10:01 am
Phillies have had two ridic comebacks recently. Yesterday and that come back against the dodgers a few weeks back. Add in the braves collapse in colorado and they would be tied.
Herschel Talker
September 20th, 2010
10:01 am
Schultzie:
For sure this is the case. The Braves aren’t catching the Phillies. But the wild card is there for the taking if the Pads, Giants, and Rockies can take each other out.
HT
Joey
September 20th, 2010
10:01 am
Why couldn’t we close out the season with a 12 game series against the Mets?
John
September 20th, 2010
10:03 am
All season and for the past 4-5 years the braves play well against the mets and then do so so against the other divisional teams. So it’s critical they don’t get swept again. Even losing 2/3 against the phillies isn’t that bad. They would still have the wild card lead no matter what happens. But they need to get 2/3 against the marlins and nats.
Bob Horner
September 20th, 2010
10:06 am
We need to go 8-4…and we need the Cardinals to play hard on the last 4 games series against the Rockies….
Tucker T
September 20th, 2010
10:06 am
Barry
Why don’t you break the rest down for me since you are such an expert. Douche.
OBX Dawg
September 20th, 2010
10:12 am
Come on guys! Philly starts Hammels, Halladay, and Oswalt. The 3 hottest pitchers throwing right now. And we counter with an ailing JJ, Minor, and Hansen. We will be lucky to get 1!!!!!
fast forward to next weekend’s series. Philly’s rotation sets up for the same 3. Are you kidding? We will be fortunate to get 2 of 6. Unless the Phillies reset their rotation for the playoffs next weekend.
Best case scenarionhas us splitting with the Phillies and taking 2 of 3 vs Nats and Fla. With that 7 and 5 would be a break. Probably enough though
skaters are haters
September 20th, 2010
10:15 am
what are you thinking schultz??? you’re predicting the braves must go 9-3. so, in retrospect, you believe that the giants/padres/rockies will all go 12-0???
the braves have a 2 game lead on sf, 2 1/2 game lead on sd, and 3 1/2 game lead on col. the giants and padres play each other in the last 12. it’s 100% unnecessary for the braves to have to go 9-3. some basic math before your articles would be of great benefit.
as for my prediction as to a safe record…..7-5. that would equate to 10-5 in final 15, which is what majority have predicted as needed to assure the braves of making the playoffs.
expect better from you.
dap01
September 20th, 2010
10:20 am
If the Braves win 6 out of the remaining twelve (very likely) and the Rockies win 2 out of every 3 (win eight games, which is not likely) we would still have a one game lead at the end of the year.
I don’t see the need for panic yet.
sportsmandh
September 20th, 2010
10:21 am
Jeff,
Have you considered. The Pads are stuttering more than the Braves lately. I don’t think they’re a threat. That leaves the Giants and Rockies as teh threats. Have you considered maybe the Rockies overtake the Giants and not the Braves for the wild card? I say if the Braves go 7-5, very doable, they are in.
Also, the Phils and Rockies are bound to cool off at some point. I’d rather them be white hot right now than in two weeks when the Braves may face one of them in the playoffs.
kaminari
September 20th, 2010
10:25 am
We just won three straight, and I know it was a deflated & tired Mets team, but hey they were playing for pride & we still whipped them. I think the bats are starting to heat up. That means the pitchers don’t have to go out there & stress that if they give up two or three early it’s over. They can relax & give us better pitching. Plus we see H20 twice. If we can take one of the games in Philly it gives us confidence & two games is just a bonus. Three is dreaming & I’m off the Kool-Aid, but it could happen. I just hope Bradley doesn’t predict a sweep cause we’re doomed for sure.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
10:25 am
Tucker — Generally wild card team plays the division winner with the best record, but I think the rule still is that if the wild card (say Braves) and the the with the best record (say Phillies) are in the same division, then the wild card plays the team with the second best record. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
10:26 am
Joey – Because every team would want to close with a 12-game series against the Mets.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
10:27 am
So let me get this straight Jeff….you think the Rockies are going to win out? That’s what it looks like to me…..because if the Braves go 9-3 to finish, the Rockies can’t afford to lose another game or they are O-U-T. Sorry, not following your math. Maybe you ran out of coffee and forgot to pick some up before this morning.
7-5 probably will get it done for Atlanta. Padres would need to go 10-3 to finish just to tie, and Rockies would need to go 11-2.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
10:31 am
Skaters — I was looking at Colorado, and, given their tendency to go unconscious (in a good way) down the stretch it wouldn’t surprise me if they went 12-1 or 11-2 down in their final 13. Does that math work for you big guy? But 8-4 could do it.
Oregon Brave
September 20th, 2010
10:31 am
With my rose colored glasses squarely in place, I see the Braves winning 10 games with Chipper’s inspirationals motivating the team. However, when I remove the glasses I see the “tank” that the Braves drive so well while winning only 5 of the final 12. The next two weeks could be fun. Go Braves.
Ted Striker
September 20th, 2010
10:31 am
That’s a lot of research. Take the rest of the day off.
The Philadelphia Phillies...
September 20th, 2010
10:32 am
are just better than the braves.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
10:32 am
Sportsmandh — No question, Padres are heading south of late — the slumpiest (that should be a word) of the 5 teams.
mrcliff
September 20th, 2010
10:33 am
Jeff, I have a question that I sent in to ‘ask your question’ to the announcers and they’ll answer it during the game but don’t really know if they answered it because I can’t watch every game. The manager of the winning NL and AL teams are coaches for the All Star game the following year. Who coaches the team if a coach retires at the end of the season?
Brian
September 20th, 2010
10:36 am
Should be a fun series, fun to watch the Braves slink out of town 6 games back.
The Philadelphia Phillies...
September 20th, 2010
10:37 am
will crush any hope you had of winning the series.
The Philadelphia Phillies...
September 20th, 2010
10:38 am
will crush any hope you had of winning the division.
The Philadelphia Phillies...
September 20th, 2010
10:38 am
and will crush any hope you had of winning the Wild Card.
The Philadelphia Phillies...
September 20th, 2010
10:39 am
will basically crush and demoralize you, starting tonight.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
10:43 am
Jeff – if the Braves go 9-3, then the Rockies have to win out. That’s what you said in your blog.
Let me go out on a limb for you here – the Rockies WILL NOT win every game the rest of the regular season. They may go 10-3, which would be very good. In that scenario, the Braves must then go 5-7 for the Rockies to make the postseason without a one game playoff. If that happens we won’t be talking about how great the Rockies are, we’ll be talking about the massive choke job the Braves just dropped on the city of Atlanta.
Point being, if the Braves just play better than .500, somebody else is going to have to rip off a torrid closing 2 weeks to beat them outright. Not to say it won’t happen, but time is on the Braves side. There are probably not enough games left.
pj
September 20th, 2010
10:46 am
This has been covered, but just to put a bow on it. 9-3 would be great, but is completely unnecessary. 8-4 will all but clinch it, 6-6 will almost certainly be enough.
8 wins would get Atl to 94 wins. TWO Western teams would have to get to 94 to knock Atl out. Say Col gets to 94 (12-1); that would include 2 wins over SF. So then SF’s max is 94 (10-2) as well. Meaning they beat SD 3 times, so SD’s max is 93 (10-3). And that’s assuming those 3 go 22-0 in the games they don’t play each other. So 8-4, and Atl’s in with 99.999999% certainty.
Here’s something else not mentioned. Cheer for the Reds the next 2 weeks. I’d much rather open in Cincy than SF or Col. Reds are the 3 seed right now – prefer them to be #2. Let the Rockies (en fuego) or Giants (good rotation, at least in theory) harass Philly in Round 1.
Braves73
September 20th, 2010
10:49 am
The Philadelphia Phillies…suck big donkey balls. I was going to come on here and be objective, but a dilo Filthy fan got me fired up. The Braves will take two of three, then sweep the final series against your team, then you can go back to your outhouse and clean the fecal matter off your bed.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
10:50 am
I am more confident now than a week ago. Lee and mcLouth are hitting now and are dangerous every at bat, along with Prado, Infante, Mac and Heyward. Gonzales hitting with power, too.
It’s great to be excited about a late season series again. Thanks, Frank Wren!
JJ
September 20th, 2010
10:53 am
Braves73 – Phillies fans are incapable of having an informed, logical discussion about baseball. I know a few of them, and when you try to actually “break down” a lineup or rotation or just talk the game of baseball, they simply resort to one-liners and trash talking. Its in their blood, like they are from a different country or even another planet altogether.
STRETCH
September 20th, 2010
10:54 am
I wanna believe in this team and they really are starting to look good. McClouth and Lee are two much needed bats though and if they can continue to go, they have a chance.
The Braves are in control of the wildcard but im really worried about the teams they are facing, Nats, Marlins and Phillies. Just hope they can play better against the Nats and Marlins.
Notice how the Marlins and Nats rolled over to the Phillies while they will most likely give the Braves fits!
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
10:55 am
Well, aren’t folks from the big, northeastern cities really from another country?
Ted Turner
September 20th, 2010
10:56 am
I think we go 7-5 and just squeak in as the wild card. The NL West teams will beat each other up, and the Phillies may have the NL East wrapped going into the last weekend and rest some of their horses.
Assuming we do make it into the Playoffs, who do you think will get the nod to start? A few weeks ago we would have said Hudson-JJ-Hanson, but with the way JJ has struggled and Lowe has come on as of late, I think Bobby might go Hudson-Lowe-Hanson. What do you guys think?
Peter from Chicago
September 20th, 2010
10:57 am
Jeff, interesting article, but I have to disagree with you. I think your article was written out of a little bit of panic and also a sense of doomsday that really shouldn’t exist after this weekend. Take a look at the numbers based on your analysis.
If the Braves go 9-3 over their last 12 games, that puts them at 95-67, which surely would be enough to make the playoffs. Considering the Rockies are 82-67, they would have to go 13-0 over their final 13 games to catch the Braves and the Padres would have to go 12-1. That’s an insane pace to expect out of even the hottest of teams.
I personally think if the Braves manage 7-5, they still should lock up a playoff berth. The Padres would have to go 10-3 and the Rockies would have to go 11-2 just to tie them. I don’t see either of those teams pulling off a run like that.
Peter
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
10:57 am
With Lee, McLouth and Gonzales knocking balls to the walls, it makes the batting order tough from top to bottom.
Herschel Talker
September 20th, 2010
10:58 am
Schultzie:
Correct, Braves can’t play Phils in the first round. And don’t think that the Reds won’t want to avoid the Phils, so they’ll be looking to beat San Diego next week and won’t rest their regulars. We really need SD to beat up on SF and SD and then let SD choke against the others. In any event, these west teams beating each other should help.
HT
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:02 am
Braves73 and JJ – your post seem to be the ignorant ones – what would you like to break down? I’ll break it down with you…
Ace It!
September 20th, 2010
11:03 am
Jeff, you are correct about who the Braves would play if they are the wildcard.
Frankie Wren
September 20th, 2010
11:03 am
9-3, C’mon man do your homework. 7-5 puts them in the WC. Colorado is hot but they have to remain on a terror and ending in St Louis for 4 will be their demise.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:03 am
Phillies get the edge in starting rotation and lineup, this Phillies team also has a track-record of great septembers and are the 2-time defending NL Champs – the braves get the nod in bullpen.
mrcliff
September 20th, 2010
11:04 am
Hey Silly Philly Phan, I agree that the Phillies have more talent in nearly every position, but one thing the Braves bring into the game is countless breaks that have eluded them the past four seasons. David slew the giant, remember? Can you say 44 come-from-behind-wins? The Braves mojo is back. I think Alber Einstein said it best “I’d reather be a an optimist and a fool, than a pessimist and right.”
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:04 am
Phillies are 15-3 in September, started September 3 out and are now 3 up
Braves are 9-9 in September, started 3 up and are now 3 out.
What do you want to talk about?
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:06 am
The Phillies impart the utmost confidence in their fans – all season we KNEW we would still win the division – thats what happens when you know you have the best team.
What do you want us to do? Not be supremely confident? The Phillies are the better team.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:07 am
We know we have not made it to the World Series yet – but we feel our only real challenge will be from the American League. Thats just the way we feel.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:10 am
Once they have gotten healthy, the Phillies have MLBs best record – they have made up so much ground that they are with 1 1/2 game of the best record in all of baseball. What do you want to argue about? The Phillies are a juggernaut.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:11 am
MrCliff –There’s actually been cases of a fired (or even retired) manager coming back to coach the All-Star game, but don’t know that there’s something in black-and-white as far as the selection process. My guess is they would take the losing manager from the LCS the year before.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
11:12 am
The Phillies goal in this series is not just to beat the braves, but to utterly demoralize them, break their backs. The Phillies sort of take it personally when other teams claim to be better than them when 3/4 of their roster is injured, and so do their fans.
Braves73
September 20th, 2010
11:12 am
Don Carmen – I had to lower my post to “ignorant level” so you and all the Philly faithful could understand.
Here, I’ll try to speak to you in a language that is significantly easier for you to comprehend. The Braves are 7-5 against your unbeatable Phillies this year. They match up well against your team, and usually rise up to the level of competition they are facing. They will win tonight (4-2) & Wednesday (5-3).
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
11:13 am
the braves are walking into an ambush tonight.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:13 am
I’ll be happy to break it down with you. With your rotation set up the way it is, and the lineup back to being what everyone expected, the Braves are in big trouble as far as the division is concerned. If we were tied or even a game back, I might feel differently. But having to make up 3 games against that kind of team over 12 games is almost impossible. It will take a monumental task to catch Philly, one that I’m not expected to achieve, but I’m certainly hopeful to be surprised. That said, I’m glad we have the wild card to fall back on and I expect to see the Phillies in the NLCS when we both start 0-0 in the series.
Now, wasn’t that analysis much better than “The Phillies will crush and demoralize you, starting tonight?” Come on, I’d expect that out of a serious, paid journalist like John Kruk.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:15 am
JJ — If the Braves go 9-3, yes the Rockies would have to go 13-0 to tie them. If the Braves go 8-4, the Rockies would have to go 12-1 to tie them, which I think the Rockies are capable of doing. That’s why I said 9-3 to make it. That’s my point, which I guess was lost amid all of the numbers. Sorry about that. Maybe the bigger question is, with the Braves having six games against the Phillies, what’s a realistic record for them in the last 12? If they split the six games (which is the most realistic), they would need to go 5-1 in the other six to go 8-4. Could happen.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:16 am
Braves73, thank you so much for coming to my level, I appreciate that.
You seem to think that a 7-5 record in april, may, and june has something, anything to do with what is going to go down in these 2 series. I feel sorry for you and your simple brain.
This is a different Phillies team than what you faced earlier in the year, and this is September, not June. Sorry buddy, you are one of those guys that needs to be beat over the head with a 4X4 before you understand something. Lucky for you, the series starts in about 8 hours, so you will be shown the light soon enough.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:18 am
Jeff – I think the Braves split with Philly (lose 2 of 3 this week and then win 2 of 3 back home, although if Philly has clinched the division by then and starts resting regulars, then a home sweep is possible.) Then I fully expect to win 2 of 3 in the other 2 series. That would put us at 7-5 over the final 12, and leave Colorado or the Padres needing to pull off torrid stretches just to pull even with Atlanta and force an extra regular season game. In short, I think 7-5 gets it done.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:18 am
JJ, you are much more logical than your buddy, Braves73. I agree with everything you say. And if we do match up in the NLCS, that would be great. I will be supremely confident that I root for the superior team, and will look forward to a 3rd straight World Series.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:20 am
Braves73, see what I mean? Even when a guy comes over and claims he’s ready to talk baseball, he just can’t get a sentence from his brain to his keyboard without throwing insults at you.
What a miserable life.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:20 am
Here’s a real simple point. If both teams play to their potential, then the Phillies win, because the Phillies are better. The braves would need to play above their potential and the Phillies play below theirs for the braves to win this series.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:21 am
JJ — And now we find out. Honestly, the drop off of Braves’ starting pitching is what scares me most. Lowe coming back strong certainly helps a lot but it’s stunning how much staff production has dropped off.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:21 am
JJ, did I say something untrue or overtly mean to Braves73? His comments reek of stupidity, how should I respond to them?
Braves73
September 20th, 2010
11:23 am
Don Carmen – Thanks for providing me the education that I need in order for me to better understand my team’s chances against your unbeatable Phillies. Wow, I’m so much smarter and now I can finally accomplish something with my life. Me thinks your rose colored glasses are allowing you to make excuses for your team’s poor play in those months.
Hey buddy, when your unbeatable Phils lose tonight, you can take that 4×4 and shove, well…you’re smart.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:24 am
I agree Jeff. Minor isn’t instilling much confidence lately (which is to be expected given his youth), and Jurrjens has been awful by his own standards.
I think we’re going to face a different Florida team from the last time we played them – they essentially threw in the towel right about the time we left town (and conveniently right when Philly was coming in.) They are basically throwing a prospect on the hill every night.
The Washington series is going to be the key in my opinion. There is no excuse for losing a series to them, but we find a way to do it more often than not.
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LIvinInAL
September 20th, 2010
11:35 am
I don’t think the Rockies can mantain the pace for the remainder of the season.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:43 am
Phillies fans are conveniently forgetting that it was what, about 5 or 6 weeks ago, they couldn’t score but one run in about 5 games? Hope that doesn’t happen again, huh?
I think the Braves are in the Phillies’ heads a little, beating them 5 of 6.
Man, the pitchers we face this series are 10-0 in Sept. The law of averages have got to catch up.
chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:44 am
The Rocks are not our problem because we cannot effect their outcome. We do not play them. On the other hand, we play the Follies.You will get ulcers worrying about things you cannot control. Chop!Chop!
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:47 am
The Phillies have rode hot septembers to the world series the last two years and 2010 is looking very similar – the braves just aren’t as good as the Phillies.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:48 am
Dont put the cart before the horse, gents. One game at a time, the Braves will win by a run tonight (2-1) in a pitcher’s duel,Chop!Chop!
Farnsworthy
September 20th, 2010
11:48 am
Jeff: First-the Braves bullpen right now is awesome! Losing the Pittsburgh and Nats series really hurt, as your analysis highlights, and thus the Braves are in this position; which means the NL East title is the Fills to lose. The Fills are just stepping on everyones’ throat. I think 8-4 will do it for the wild card but to have a chance at the NL East, they probably need to win all of the rest of their games-which is very, very, unlikely-so I have resigned myself to the Braves hopefully winning the wild card. If D. Lee and Jason can continue to step it up, the Braves should be in the playoffs.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:49 am
Jeff, sometimes a matchup against a great pitcher brings out the best. Remember KK last year? I do wish Bobby woulda let Huddy lead off tonight. Extra day of rest and he’d probably been hard to handle.
Maybe Bobby is insinuating he doesn’t need the Braves 1,2,3, starters to beat the Phillies?
I do think that Jair needs a start off for his arm’s sake, if not his knee.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:49 am
History is History. Braves will have a September to remember this year. Chop! Chop!
steve brown
September 20th, 2010
11:52 am
Your 12-1 Rocky prediction-can’t believe we all bit on your ridiculous bait!!
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:53 am
” the braves just aren’t as good as the Phillies.”
**************************
Wow! Ya think? $83M payroll compared to, what is it now, $150M? And we’re (the Braves) not “as good?”
Hot dang, ESPN needs you, Don Carmen, for such analysis!
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:53 am
The Rockies nor the Giants will get in! The Follies will be the wild card and the Padres win their divisin. Braves and Follies will play each other again in the NLCS, Chop! Chop!
John Calipari
September 20th, 2010
11:54 am
Wanted: Students who can’t pass high school but can play basketball like Dr. J. Cash payments and other gifts are available.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:56 am
Steve (and others): Let’s just hold on there, mister. I never “predicted” Colorado would go 12-1. What I said was, given, what they’ve done down the stretch in recent years — and in fact what they’re doing now — they’re capable of it. Geez, talk about a spark turning into a raging inferno.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:56 am
Next week about this time you critics will be back on the Braves bandwagon. Braves win. Braves win.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:58 am
JJ — On target. As you know Braves have had issues with Nationals (and Marlins) in past.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:59 am
The Follies are not that good. They got swept by the awful Astros.
Booyah
September 20th, 2010
12:00 pm
Jeff – actually a good time to play the Phillies – they HAVE to cool at some point… and so do the Rockies. 7 and 5 gets us in to wild card.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:01 pm
The Follie players must have a rabbit’s paw in there pockets.It ought be an investigation. Chop!
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
12:01 pm
WonderDawg — Going to be honest here, I’ve been so consumed with football last 2 weeks that I didn’t give a thought to whether the Braves would try to set up their rotation for the 2 series against the Phillies, plus you had the Lowe injury, etc. But the matchups this series are pretty tilted. (Hanson-Oswalt could be gem though).
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:02 pm
I still say if McLouth, Lee, and Gonzales continue thaeir power surge, that kinda trumps stuff lik Nats and Marlins issues. It did this past weekend (issue – winning on the road)!
Phillies will OWN YOU
September 20th, 2010
12:03 pm
You Johnny Rebs are so screwed, you’ll be lucky to pull out 1 win in this 3 game set. And then come the last series of the year, we’re gonna go “Sherman’s March to the Sea” on you fools. Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt, BRING IT.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:03 pm
We are gunning for the division , not the stinky wid card! We do not want sloopy seconds! Chop!
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:05 pm
Huddy canot pitch evry game, boys and girls. The Follies luck will soon run dry.
Jim L.
September 20th, 2010
12:06 pm
Ok all you Braves fans – The Phillies, in the beginning months of the year, had just about everyone and their mother on the DL at some point during the year. Our offense slumped for just about the entire summer, and our pitching staff were the ones winning us a lot of the games. You went 7-5 against a wounded, mediocre-hitting team. Now, you’re playing a Phillies team that is nearly at full strength (minus Jimmy Rollins), with an offense that is rolling, and a pitching staff that is still shutting down opposing teams. With the Big 3 on the hill vs. the Braves, how can you think you’ll sweep us? Won’t happen. Our team is simply playing better right now. I think the Braves have a great shot at the Wild Card – but after that, it’s anybody’s game, really.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:06 pm
Yanks own the follies, hero.
Johnny Reb
September 20th, 2010
12:07 pm
I hope we sell out the Ted so you stinky, yankees (people, not team) can’t get tickets, and won’t come down here stinking up the place.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
12:08 pm
Booyah (another others, again on Colorado’s season) – “actually a good time to play the Phillies – they HAVE to cool at some point… and so do the Rockies.” Not sure I agree. Both may indeed cool off. I keep thinking of three years ago with the Rockies and I just looked it up to confirm. In 2007, Colorado was 76-72 and went 24-1 — that’s right, 24-1 – down the stretch (including a 1-game playoff) to finish 90-73 and eventually met Boston in the World Series.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:08 pm
The Philles will choke under pressure again. That’s their MO.
Dr. Warren
September 20th, 2010
12:10 pm
Ah, remember the days when the Braves had 9 game leads at this point…
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:11 pm
@ Phiily fools
Vomiting is not allowed at the Ted. If you are not man enough to hold your alcohol, dont drink or man up.
John Smoltz
September 20th, 2010
12:17 pm
Since the Chipper pep talk , we have been playing loose and that is a good sign. The Braves is still America’s team. Our games are played more often nationally than the Philles. Braves rule!
Wanna hear a good joke? What did the Philly say, when the Brave grabbed him by the tail? That’s the end of me.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:17 pm
You shoulda finished that tale up, Jeff, “where the roided up Manny, Popi and others won the title for Boston.”
The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, all should have asterisks by their names in the record books for their titles in the ’90s and ’00s.
Tom Glavine
September 20th, 2010
12:19 pm
Do I need to come out of retirement to shut down the Phillies?
Dr. Phil
September 20th, 2010
12:19 pm
Pitch the rookie tonight. He might surprise us. JJ is average at best.
Steve Avery
September 20th, 2010
12:21 pm
I still have some stuff left in the tank, Tommy. Let’s get Mad Dog on the Line so we can be eligible for the post season roster.
O'Brien
September 20th, 2010
12:23 pm
Jeff,
It is very possible for the Rockies to go 11-2 to finish the year. But if they go 11-2 (including one series against the Giants), chances are the Rockies win the division.
And if that happens, I think we beat the Giants for the wildcard.
I agree with those predicting a 7-5 record for the Braves (3 and 3 against the Phillies).
Bob Horner
September 20th, 2010
12:23 pm
Jeff the Rockies 24-1 run was like Tiger’s Majors run several years ago…a 1 time thing…the stars were aligned…too many things have go perfectly your way..IMHO
Greg " Mad Dod' Maddux
September 20th, 2010
12:23 pm
Guys, the Braves have the arms to do it without uscoming out of retirement. Go Braves.
Chief Knockahoma Sr
September 20th, 2010
12:26 pm
True Braves fans will not be settling for a wild card spot. It is still early. Chop!
Tami
September 20th, 2010
12:32 pm
EVERY single game is a must-win, in my opinion. You have to figure that the Phillies, Rockies & Giants are not going away. And the Padres could somehow revive themselves — maybe. No division winner wants to face the Rockies or the Reds in a short series in the LDS. So….every game that the major contenders play will be key. There is not one single game left on the schedule for any of these teams to squander. It’s crunch time. I’m just hopeful that the Braves rise to the challenge and play good, solid baseball down the stretch, as they did against the Mets. The thing I’d like to see them improve on BEFORE tonight’s game is the first inning runs they give up to the opponent. Make the other team work just as hard to get runs as the Braves have to do. And at the end of the day, if the Braves still don’t make the playoffs, at least they played their last remaining games admirably. But….I’d LOVE to see them in the postseason! GO BRAVES!!
Jim L.
September 20th, 2010
12:37 pm
Your games are played more often nationally than the Phillies? Tell me how many times you have sold out Turner Field, and compare that to Citizens Bank Park. Get back to me then.
kreedham
September 20th, 2010
12:40 pm
With the pitching matchups the Braves have to be patient! Work the count and get their pitch count up, score 2 or 3 early, and get them to go to the bullpen!
And resist temptation…don’t pitch Moylan and Venters everyday! If so it doesn’t have to be a full inning. Lots of arms in the bullpen!
Hampton Roads Dawg
September 20th, 2010
12:41 pm
At least 9-3 huh? You obviously aren’t a numbers man Schultz. The Rockies would have to go undefeated to tie the Braves. The Padres would have to lose only once to tie the Braves.
7-5 ought to do it, but I’ll take 9-3.
Dawg Fud
September 20th, 2010
12:53 pm
You are correct that the pitching matchup in this series v. Phillies is a daunting task. Hopefully we will be strategizing and tweaking our approach each inning, both offensively and defensively.
Easiest way to give yourself a chance: eliminate the errors.
Sammy
September 20th, 2010
12:53 pm
The Brave fans on this board who think they are going to sweep the Phillies are dellusional and have no sense of reality. Maybe they could ask the Falcons for some help. Braves are going to leave Philly at least 4 games back if not 6 games back.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:55 pm
Have the Roys been in a pennant race before? It’s a serious question.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:57 pm
Too bad the Phillies don’t have a blog for these geniuses.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
12:59 pm
Seriously, Atlanta fans, give it a rest. You idiots can’t even sell out playoff games no matter what sport it is. You are embarassing! It’s great that you could keep the division competitive for a few months while 17 of our players were on the DL and one point or another. I mean seriously, we’ve had our opening day roster together for a total of 12 games this year and your bragging about going 7-5 versus then Phillies earlier in the season. Kudos on a good run boys, tee times are free at Bear’s best starting October 4th and there’s a block reserved for you!
Frankie Wren
September 20th, 2010
1:00 pm
The Rockies have played well but thinking they can continue that pace and go 12-1 is just a little far fetched. You know the possibility the Braves can go 12-1 as well I guess. Sorry, not going to happen on both accounts. Rockies playing better on the road but still go to Zona and St. Louis at home for 4. Also, looks like the Giants are throwing their Big 3 so even at home that will be a challenge. If they approach anything close to 12-1 they win the West and wildcard is irrelevant.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:00 pm
Roy Oswalt pitched in the World Series for the Astros in 2005.
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:03 pm
I think that 7-5 will help them clinch the WC, but they need 9-3 at least to take the division lead and hold it.
7-5 is very probable, and 8-4 is possible….9-3 would be solid if not spectacular.
Of course, the Braves have won the last 5/6 vs the Phillies…while I’ll agree the Phils didn’t have Oswalt during those last 6, the Braves have a tendency to play to the level of their competition.
I think 1-2 is probable and 2-1 is very possible (this series). Sweep would be a minor miracle, but crazier things have happened!
Doc Halladay
September 20th, 2010
1:05 pm
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:53 am
” the braves just aren’t as good as the Phillies.”
**************************
Wow! Ya think? $83M payroll compared to, what is it now, $150M? And we’re (the Braves) not “as good?”
Hot dang, ESPN needs you, Don Carmen, for such analysis!
*******************************************************************************************************
Wow – what a cop out!!!!
Why play?
Just find the 8 teams with the highest payrolls and send them to the post season.
Of course that would mean the Cubs would be in. And the Mutts too. Do you know that Rays payoll is $17 million LESS than the Braves?
Do you know that the Braves payroll is more than twice San Diego’s?
Right now only 3 of the top 10 teams in payroll are guaranteed a playoff spot. And the only one realistically with a chance is San Francisco.
Stop yur whining!!!!
Doc Halladay
September 20th, 2010
1:11 pm
Booyah
September 20th, 2010
12:00 pm
Jeff – actually a good time to play the Phillies – they HAVE to cool at some point… and so do the Rockies. 7 and 5 gets us in to wild card
************************************************************************************************************
The longest winning streak for a 162 game season is 20; by the 2002 A’s
Longest winning streak in a 154 game season is 21 – 1916 Cubs
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
1:11 pm
Oh, okay, I thought payroll might have just a little to do with success. My bad.
Phillies will OWN YOU
September 20th, 2010
1:11 pm
The Bravos are actually thinking about throwing a rookie out to pitch tonight. Meanwhile, the Phillies have aligned their three headed monster to ensure they have their best on the mound for the remaining 6 games with the Braves. You see thats how WINNERS operate. The Braves on the other hand had to pitch Lowe and Hudson against the piss poor Mets to make sure they didn’t lose another series to a cellar dweller LOL you’ll be lucky to win 1 and all you Braves fans know it. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
clay
September 20th, 2010
1:12 pm
this is why we play the game fellas…this is why you play all 162 games because you just never know what could happen. never bet on the game of baseball…its a funny game. the braves could go in and sweep (is it likely? NO) but it could happen. Then we are tied. True basball fans look at numbers and sometimes to much into numbers. Well if they go on that then heres numbers for tonight….Hamels has won his last 5 starts with a 0.77 ERA, that means he is due for a loss right? JJ is coming off 5 bad outings, that means he is due for a win right? The Phillies have won 7 straight games, so eventually they are due to lose right? These numbers look good for the braves tonight, but then again they could get no hit. baseball is a funny game thats why you play all 162, because anything could happen.
rico carty
September 20th, 2010
1:14 pm
7-5 will get it done, at least for a one game WC playoff. That means both the NL West winner and WC team from the West would have to lose no more than 2 games the rest of the way to beat ATL outright in regular season. Since they all play each other sevearl times, I think the best record they could come up with would be 3 losses, which would get the Braves at least a 1 game playoff if go 7-5 the rest of the way.
Reid Adair
September 20th, 2010
1:16 pm
Three teams in the West – Colorado, San Diego and San Francisco – have stepped it up in August and September to challenge not only for the division title but the wild card spot as well. I won’t be surprised if a team from the West gets the wild card.
Still just one person to blame for the roller coaster that this season has been – Frank Wren.
clay
September 20th, 2010
1:16 pm
IDK if taking your three best starters and putting them in the final 3 games of the season is a smart move or what some people like to say “thats how WINNERS operate” beause now what your doing is only giving your three best starters 2 or 3 days rest in the postseason which means they will tire out pretty quick so then you have to go to the bullpen and we all know how that goes for the Phils. Anyone else agree?
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:19 pm
Hey Jeff….good work.
Has anyone been talking about this point? I haven’t heard it if they are…
Manuel is being designated as a genius for aligning his rotation (the big 3) for both of the Braves’ series…and as a Braves fan, I’m not looking forward to that matchup.
But what about this?
They are able to clinch the division on Sunday, Oct 3rd. Then they start the division series on Tuesday, is that not correct?
My thing is, is it better to try and put the Braves out of reach in order to start your B starters in the Division opener (5 -game series) when one loss can set the tone?
Hmmmmm….
I know that potentially Hamels could start on 4 days rest….I don’t know….is that even an issue?
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:20 pm
*correction:
Hamels would be on 3 days rest.
He would start on the last Friday and then again on Tuesday.
Jeff
September 20th, 2010
1:22 pm
There is some math logic missing here Jeff. If the Braves go 7-5, they win 93 games. Somebody has to win the West. That means that 93 wins has to be better than the other 2 teams that are in that division. Giants would need to go 9-3 to tie. San Diego 10-3 to tie. Colorado 11-2. I think that is asking alot of all those teams to play that well. Plus they all play each other. That is 9 games between the 3 teams. That is 9 losses among those teams. Am I missing something? 6-6 might get it done. 7-5 should surely work. 8-4 or better is a lock. Right?
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:23 pm
clay – they wont be going on three days rest. Remember, if phils have division and home field clinched they won’t start the division series until thurs Oct 7th so whoever pitches Friday October 1st will be going on full rest and so on. Not an issue.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
1:24 pm
Forget it, clay. We don’t even have to play this series. Just scroll up and read those philly fans’ remarks.
All three games. Already over. The Phillies will OWN US!
Watch any sport and the first thing you find out is, philly fans talk a lot . . .
Jeff''s math tudor from college
September 20th, 2010
1:26 pm
Calm down people,I just talked to him, he’s re-doing the assignment!!
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:28 pm
Good point, Gators!
But what if they don’t have home-field? Will they start on Tuesday?
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:32 pm
And Gators…
what if somehow (yes, it would be a minor miracle with the standings now) the Braves clinch the division?
Then the Phils might encounter the danger of not only losing the division, but also being knocked out of the playoffs. I know a lot of stars would have to align for all of those to happen….we shall see!
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:33 pm
Nope – division series for NL start oct 6th & 7th so would still be on the 5th daysrest for whoever pitched Friday Oct 1st, even if they played on the 6th
The Choperator
September 20th, 2010
1:37 pm
Jeff, please read this comment because I think your message is being lost on a lot of readers. If the Braves go 8-4 and the Rockies go 12-1, they are tied at 92-68 (we both understand that). The Giants would have to lose at least two games to the Rockies in this scenario, and if they win all the rest of their games, they finish 92-68 (so that’s finishing 10-2 on their remaining games, only losing two to the Rockies. It would also include a sweep of the Padres, meaning the Dads could finish no better than 91-69). If the Giants are the team that end up on the outs, the (ice cold) Padres would have to finish 11-2 to tie the Rox and the Braves.
It is mathematically possible that the Braves could finish 8-4 and not even get a chance to play a one game playoff, if the Rockies finish 13-0 and the Padres finish 12-1 or 13-0. But chances of this are very slim (and hinge on a Giants collapse).
What I think you’re trying to say is that the Braves must finish 9-3 to GUARANTEE themselves a playoff spot. But 8-4 looks pretty darn good, and I think 7-5 will do it too. (Heck, I think 6-6 gives them a shot.) I’ve read enough of your articles to know you aren’t naive enough to expect the above scenario to play out.
I appreciate all the graphics and standings from your article. It helps break down the playoff picture quite a bit, and allows us to appreciate how crucial the past weekend was for the Braves’ wild card hopes.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:38 pm
Keith – if you guys come back and clinch the division and knock the phils out of the WC then congrats to you! I just assume though that with all the crack math done by the braves fans in previous posts about how they would only need to go 7-5 or 8-4 to lock up the wild card then the phils would need to go 4-8 or 5-7 to do the same based on the three game differece. Crazier things have happened for sure but doubtful. If you dont want the Phils to make the playoffs you best sweep both series. Good luck!
Jeff
September 20th, 2010
1:39 pm
Correction on my post. 6 games- 3 each for SD and CO v. SF. That is still 6 losses going somewhere. If they each pick up 2 of those losses, not much room for error for any of them.
DawgDad
September 20th, 2010
1:42 pm
What if Derrek Lee didn’t just tee up on an Acosta beach ball fast ball and really is zeroing in? The Braves need a dinger or two and a mess of RBI’s out of him this week, and if he delivers the Braves chances balloon exponentially.
Mike
September 20th, 2010
1:43 pm
Cmon Jeff… I know the Rockies are hot, but if the Braves go 7-5, then the Rockies would have to go 11-2 over their last 13 just to make it a TIE. Then it would be a one-game playoff. The Padres would have to go 10-3 over that stretch to make it a TIE. I think the Braves will go either 8-4 or 7-5. If the Braves go 8-4, then Colorado would have to go 12-1 and Padres 11-2…. I just don’t see those things happening.
One way that things could go our way is if Philadelphia has clinched by the last series, they may rest some of their BIG GUNS, which could help us win 2 or 3 and get in as the Wild Card.
Do you see the Braves going worse than 7-5??? If they do, then they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyways.
I hope Braves fans pack the Ted next week. It needs to be a playoff atmosphere. I will be there Monday, Tuesday, and Friday. Go Braves!
A
Jeff
September 20th, 2010
1:49 pm
Choperator nailed it. 6-6 will be dicey. 7-5 should be OK. 8-4 close to a lock. 9-3 lock.
urban redneck
September 20th, 2010
1:53 pm
wow. pennant race again. by gar, it’s been a while. however, i am not going to start crunching numbers or counting. just glad to be back in the thick of it. i would like to add that all these come from behind wins are just nerve wracking–sure picked a heckuva day to quit methamphetamines.
Alex
September 20th, 2010
1:58 pm
95 games to win the wildcard DUMB highest NL wild card winner was 93 it usually is about 91-92 game winner they just need to go 8-4 and coast in
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
2:00 pm
That’s what I’ve been saying, DawgDad. Lee, McLouth and Gonzales have all started knocking paint of outfield walls all of a sudden, with a few going over.
If they keep it up, it changes everything, because Infante and Prado are gonna hit. Heyward is hot. Mac got two hits yesterday and is still a good clutch hitter. Then you got a bench with Diaz, Glaus, Melky, Heinski, Conrad.
If our starters can just get quality starts (6 innings – 3 runs), our hitters can run up the Phillies’ starters pitch counts and get into their bullpen, we just might win a couple in this series.
I know, Phillie fanatics, it’s all got to fall into place, it might . . .
Mediocre
September 20th, 2010
2:00 pm
The Braves are mediocre at best against the Nats and Marlins. I hate to say it, but 1-5 is a probability against the Phillies. Braves miss the playoffs 2-3 games out of the wild card.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
2:01 pm
….paint off outfield …..
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
2:03 pm
Try a early Jack and Coke, urban redneck. It’s 5:00 somewhere.
robdawg08
September 20th, 2010
2:07 pm
8-4 should get them in as Wild Card. Yeah Jeff it sounds like a few guys shooting at the range during a drought (Pun intended). Its like telling your neighbor you broke your finger. She tells her mom,who tells a friend,who tells a lady at the beauty shop and now “your dead”.
I have zero confidence in JJ right now.
clay
September 20th, 2010
2:17 pm
WonderDawg-hahahaha. that is halarious man. You are about right on that one. We should just forfeit this series and the last one and give all those games to philly since they already have the n.l. wrapped up.
chris
September 20th, 2010
2:34 pm
Good column Jeff and agreed; we got to win 9/12 and yes those Marlins and Nationals tend to do us more damage than the teams with better records. What I fear is we go into Philly play our butts off come out with 2/3 or sweep then have major letdowns in the next 6 games against who else- the Nationals and Marlins
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
2:35 pm
Jeff Schultz – - From your article:
Record vs. remaining opponents
[...]
Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537)
Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509)
Sr., you just committed an error on those records. The Braves are 22-20 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Phoollies twice) and the Phoollies are 22-19 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Braves twice). See?
chris
September 20th, 2010
2:35 pm
And I agree the Rockies are more a threat! That 10-1 meltdown and sweep at their hands 2 weeks ago is a testimony as to how good they are..If the Braves win that last game we’re 4 1/2 up on them right now and only 2 back of Philly if the remaining games had had same outcome.
Ted M
September 20th, 2010
2:36 pm
Tonight’s lineup (7:05 SportSouth): Infante – 4 Heyward – 9 Prado – 5 Lee – 3 McCann – 2 Diaz – 7 Gonzalez – 6 Cabrera – 8 Jurrjens – 1
James
September 20th, 2010
2:36 pm
8-4 Let’s Go Braves!
Ted M
September 20th, 2010
2:39 pm
Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia might shut the rockies down. Pujols’ home batting average is .335
Bob Horner
September 20th, 2010
2:53 pm
Cabrera over McClouth..???
The Choperator
September 20th, 2010
2:58 pm
The following are the Braves’ magic numbers to eliminate every team still mathematically in the wild card hunt:
Giants: 11
Padres: 11
Reds (you never know): 11
Rockies: 10
Cardinals: 6
Marlins: 2
Mets: 1
But hell, lets go win the division.
Aunt Esther
September 20th, 2010
3:05 pm
This is sad…everybody is saying “as long as we win at least one game this series, we’ll be okay.”
I understand the point, but it is still a (very) defeatist attitude. The Braves aren’t as bad as they have recently played, and the phillies aren’t as good as *they’ve* played, either.
We should be thinking about going into philly and pounding ‘em. I bet the Braves are thinking this way.
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
3:14 pm
I think the Rockies will win the west if they correct thier road woes, but i think we will beat out San Fran & the Padres, for the wildcard.
Ted M
September 20th, 2010
3:17 pm
I was surprised about Cabrera over McClouth too…well actually Cox doesn’t like going w/the hot bat.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:18 pm
What does a playoff atmosphere feel like at Turner Field? 30,000 fans as opposed to the normal 18,000?
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:20 pm
The Phillies are proactive and have set their rotation the way they need it for the last two weeks. The braves are reactive, chasing the juggernaut Phillies.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:21 pm
the braves actually had around 7,000 fans at the day game last week – can you believe that? 7,000 fans in the midst of a pennant race???
Duluth's Finest
September 20th, 2010
3:23 pm
confirmed on the 7k or 8k last Wed – I was there – I believe the paid attendance was somewhere around 20k, but there was no more than 8k in attendance – Mark Bradley actually wrote about this about a month ago…don’t blame me though – I have been to 18 games this year, more than enough for one fan IMHO.
Bob Horner
September 20th, 2010
3:24 pm
Don people live too far away Turner Field…the poor attendance is because of logistics…Braves fans are just as good and loyal as Phillie fans…
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
3:24 pm
I agree with ya Aunt Esther, I think we will surprise them and take two up in philly, they will underestimate our starting pitching and end up with close games in the late innings, then it will be a battle of the bullpens as they get shut down by Wags & company, while our offense pulls off a couple of narrow come from behind wins, just like they have done all season. Go Braves!
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:24 pm
maybe you go to the games Duluth, but whats up with the rest of Atlanta??
Duluth's Finest
September 20th, 2010
3:26 pm
I have to diagree with you Bob Horner – in college football, the south has passionate fans – there is general apathy for the braves though, I live here, I go to the games, I know – the Northeast is a different level of baseball support and knowledge, again, IMHO.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:29 pm
For those who missed it, the Braves have announced prospect Brandon Beachy will start in place of Jair Jurrjens (sore knee). Here’s David O’Brien’s Twitter flash: http://twitter.com/ajcbraves
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:33 pm
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:21 pm
the braves actually had around 7,000 fans at the day game last week – can you believe that? 7,000 fans in the midst of a pennant race???
You think you’re so smart… try mixing the Nats + day game (not a weekend game) and you won’t get to 35000 fans in the stadium.
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:34 pm
Jeff Schultz – – From your article:
Record vs. remaining opponents
[...]
Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537)
Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509)
Sir, you just committed an error on those records. The Braves are 22-20 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Phoollies twice) and the Phoollies are 22-19 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Braves twice). See?
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:38 pm
The Choperator — I would like to hire you as my translator, if you’re willing to work cheap.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:40 pm
Jeff’s Math Tudor — I think you mean “tutor” unless of course you’re a house, in which case you’re probably condemned. (Don’t mess with me. Words are my business.)
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:41 pm
LuisG — Yes, I did that on purpose, because they play them twice. That wasn’t an accident.
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
3:47 pm
Ok, Ok, we get it, nobody goes to Braves games, yeah I’m sure it looks bad on us as fans, but I don’t uderstand why everybody keeps talk’n about it. It is what it is. We don’t love our team any less, we just follow the team in other ways besides being at the stadium everday. If everyone told the truth, its probably because we all work long hours, and live too far away from the stadium, that makes it a big pain in the butt to drive home pack up the kids, drive back to atlanta for the game and then drive all the way back home. Besides HDTV is awesome!!! and we have really nice couches down here, that combo is hard to beat.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:48 pm
LuisG – Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:33 pm
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:21 pm
the braves actually had around 7,000 fans at the day game last week – can you believe that? 7,000 fans in the midst of a pennant race???
You think you’re so smart… try mixing the Nats + day game (not a weekend game) and you won’t get to 35000 fans in the stadium.
——
So the Phillies have had no day games in their streak of 117 straight sellouts?? – you are an idiot sir – the Phillies sell out day games, night games, weekend, weekday – we dont make excuses…
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:50 pm
Sending a rookie into the Lions Den??? The Braves truly don’t want to win the division.
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:50 pm
Jeff Schultz – Yes, I know they play them twice, but the record shouldn’t be taken into account twice. If you do that, you’re almost considering the Braves will play two different teams with the exact same record, instead of playing twice just one team (in this case, the Phoollies). That’s my point.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
3:50 pm
Hey Genius LuisG – we have had crappy opponents for day games and guess what, 117 straight sellouts. We had an afternoon game against Washington on April 15th and guess what, sell out! Atlanta just doesn’t support it sports teams. Don’t get defensive about it, just accept it. Obviously there’s a core base but it’s not big and kudo;s to those of you who do support your team!
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:51 pm
we will continue to embarass you about the attendance until the problem is rectified – the games start at the same times in Philadelphia, and Philadelphians have High Def and jobs as well – stop with the excuses.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:54 pm
amen Gators, all they do is make excuses, instead of just saying, you’re right, the attendance is embarassing and we should do better as fans.
clay
September 20th, 2010
3:55 pm
beachy to start tonight.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:55 pm
so lets talk about how badly the Phillies are going to destroy this rookie….
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:58 pm
Beachy to get lit up tonight.
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
4:02 pm
Yeah the way you destroyed Florida’s rookie last week. ha! ha! What was that score 7-1???? maybe?
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
4:06 pm
Well, I’d like to congratulate you guys for going to the stadium and support your home team. You know what? I’ve never been at the Ted. I’ve only been able to watch 28 games on TV this season (thank you TBS, you ruined my baseball life). I envy you guys, not for being a Phoollies fan, but to being able to go to the ballpark and support your team, instead of just keeping track of the game on Gameday… you guys are awesome!
All I'm Saying...
September 20th, 2010
4:06 pm
Great work, Schultz, appreciate the research, facts, figures, and the follow-up regarding JJ”s status.
My answer is 7 and 5 will do it for the Braves to win the WC no matter what the Rocks do as the Rocks will simply win their division, in my view.
The problem with 7 and 5 is that its barely a winning record and the Braves (and any playoff bound team for that matter) are better off if they are playing well going into the post-season and winning eight or more headed into the post-season seems more than just a game better than 7 and 5. And a team needs to be its most confident frame of mind come playoff time as confidence is huge in baseball.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
4:09 pm
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
4:02 pm
Yeah the way you destroyed Florida’s rookie last week. ha! ha! What was that score 7-1???? maybe?
Pitchamono, is Jorge Sosa a rookie? Is Andrew Miller a rookie? Nein!!! What rookie? The only rookie you guys faced the other day lost by a 2-1 score and it was Adalberto Mendez. Kudos to you too!
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
4:19 pm
Chief Pichanono – I apologize, my bad. Now I get it.
TrueBlueBravesFan
September 20th, 2010
4:25 pm
I wonder if the Rockies win the Wild Card if the Braves will remember that 10 run lead that they squandered againts them.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
4:40 pm
sending a rookie into raucous Citizens Bank Park is a good idea in which baseball universe??
any realistic braves fan knows they are terrified of the little kid getting knocked around tonight — I don’t think he makes it out of the 3rd…
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
4:41 pm
The Philadelpia Phillies are a Juggernaut – its going to take more than the Braves to stop them…
COOPER
September 20th, 2010
4:41 pm
Beachy deserves this shot , he has had a great year and many times the Braves are too slow in bringing up their young rookies.But it doesn’t matter how good he does , if the Braves don’t have hitting to back it up. Because the Braves are playing the Phillys , with their potent hitting machine Beachy will need at least 5 run from his teammates.
heartofdarkness
September 20th, 2010
4:46 pm
Hey, Don Carmen, what’s the over and under on the number of drunk Phillies fans who get tasered during the series.
Jason
September 20th, 2010
4:47 pm
8-4 ought to do the trick (3-3 against the Phillies and 5-1 against the rest of the field).
Jake
September 20th, 2010
4:48 pm
Statistics will tell you that on average, 90 wins is good enough to make the wildcard in the NL. If the Braves go 7-5, they would finish with 93 wins which would have won the wildcard in every year since the inception, except for ‘99. My prediction is that 6-6 would probably get them in and perhaps 5-7 would make it too.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
5:19 pm
probably the same over/under as how many dingers Beachy will give up, heartofdarkness.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
5:20 pm
the taser thing was hilarious by the way, I was at that game, absolutely hilarious, the players actually were cracking up…
Beached
September 20th, 2010
5:39 pm
Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, and then of course Hanson, versus Holliday, Hamels, and Oswalt? Are you kidding? I’m a Braves fan, and I really like the future of Braves pitching with Minor (and I guess Beachy, who seems to have had a good season) and Hanson (plus Jurrjens and Medlen, etc.), but… that does NOT read “Braves sweep!” to me. Braves will be lucky to scrape out of town with one W.
Einstein
September 20th, 2010
5:46 pm
How ’bout my man, Manny “I’llcostya” serving up Lee’s grand slam. Once a sorry pitcher, always a sorry pitcher and it only took Cox 4 seasons to notice this. Where are my other “main men”, Kolb, Yates, Boyer, Reitzma, and the infamous Claude “the little Frenchman” Ramon’? I think we make the playoffs and in true Bobby Cox fashion, one-and-done.
Obee
September 20th, 2010
5:49 pm
The Braves stand a great chance going just 6-6. The Rockies would have to go 10-3, and the Padres 9-4 just to tie. I like those odds.
Einstein
September 20th, 2010
5:51 pm
Thank you all the math majors on this board. Bottom line is that the Braves need to win at least 8, and finish on a roll.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
5:55 pm
The Braves are going to need four extra games while the Phillies take a vacation in order to catch them. Thanks for Mike Vick as well. It was real. See y’all in the spring after Cliff Lee signs on for a couple of years.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
5:56 pm
Did I forget to say “GOPHILLIES GO?
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
5:58 pm
Go Phils!
Obee
September 20th, 2010
5:59 pm
No Einstein, the Braves don’t need to win eight, but they might have to. It’s just unlikely.
Heath
September 20th, 2010
6:02 pm
Lot of Phillies fans on here trying to convince themselves this is going to be a walk in the park.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
6:07 pm
More likely a walkoff in the park.
bravesfansince66
September 20th, 2010
6:12 pm
JJ don’t look know but your slip is showing. Could you imagine Smoltz whining about his knee in a playoff stretch? Give me a break!
Obee
September 20th, 2010
6:13 pm
Phillies fans will never admit that the best cheese steaks anywhere are at the Mad Italian in Atlanta. Go Braves!
dawg4u
September 20th, 2010
6:18 pm
Enter your comments here
Gwinnett Fred
September 20th, 2010
6:19 pm
If the Braves can’t hold off Colorado with a 3.5 game lead and 2 weeks to play, then we don’t deserve to go to the playoffs.
We are in position to finish 7-5, which shouldn’t be a problem for a playoff calibur team, and force someone to go 11-2. If the other team, Rockies or not, can accomplish this – then congrats to them.
This isn’t the time for scoreboard watching – it’s time to continue to take matters into our own hands.
dawg4u
September 20th, 2010
6:22 pm
Enter your comments here I think 8-4 gets it done. I think we’ll split with the Phillies in the six games left with them and go 5-1 against the Nationals and Marlins – winning two of three against the Nats and sweeping the Marlins. I just wish Bobby Cox could have set the rotation up so that our best pitcher Tim Hudson could have at least faced the Phils once in the most important series of the year. That to me is just mind boggling that he didn’t juggle the rotation for the Phillies.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
6:32 pm
Hey, that’s not fair. By the way did you see the finish to Sunday’s game? Jason Werth crushed that ball. But can the Phillies keep him. I think the owners have cash hidden away just for him, and Lee.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
6:36 pm
You Atlanta fans have it great. This is the best Phillies blog out there. Did you see M. Vick? Man Philadelphia is the place to be a sports fan.
gmorris
September 20th, 2010
9:12 pm
I’m a Phils fan and can see the Braves are favorites to take the wild card. If the Phils keep winning, they’ll shut it down before the last 3 in Atlanta which should let the Braves finish strong. Trick is avoiding a red hot Rockies team in the NLDS.
Mike Smith
September 20th, 2010
9:37 pm
History tells us that there was only one year between 1995 and 2008 that 92 wins wouldn’t have been better than the 5th best record in the NL. Braves get in at 7-5.
dawg gone
September 20th, 2010
10:07 pm
Hate to say it but Braves will be lucky to make Play-offs. If They do they will exit first round. Braves just don’t get better at end of year they get worse. Best wishes Bobby.
Brandon Beachy
September 20th, 2010
10:26 pm
[...] [...]
Ken
September 20th, 2010
10:27 pm
The Braves offense has no creativity at all. The lost this game in the 3nd inning when they only got 1 run. This has been their achilles heal lately . Double plays all night long in key situations . Do they ever think about a suprise bunt. Very disappointing performance tonight.
double
September 20th, 2010
10:39 pm
was it as you expected?Had it gone other way would you be surprised?Are you dissapointed?Keep the faith all will be fine.Phills to ws.
kwajbraves
September 20th, 2010
11:01 pm
We are not making the postseason and if we by any miracle make it will be a quick but predictable first round exit. It is a shame that we belly flopped this year because I can see the Marlins to become the second best team in the NL EAST next year. That line up is scary good if they can get some arms to go with those bats watch out Phils.
vinonoir (Phils fan)
September 20th, 2010
11:34 pm
A lot of Braves fans make an excellent point about only needing to go 7-5 to make the wildcard. The Braves have played excellent ball this year and have some pretty impressive young players. The NL East would be well represented by the Phils and Braves in the playoffs. The scarest team to me thought is the Rockies. If any of teams sprinting to the playoffs finish line could go 12-1 it would be them.
MitchC
September 21st, 2010
12:17 am
Jeff, I dont agree about 9-3 to win the wild card. Counting tonight’s loss, you’re saying they need to go 9-2. No.
We need not to get swept in Philly, to win two out of three in DC, and to go home, and win four of the six games against the Phillies and Florida. Seven wins would do it. Yes, the Rockies are hot, but they’re still chasing us, and we play very well at home.
What you’re essentially saying is: We need to win two of three at Philly and DC, and go five and one at home, or, we can go 500 on the rest of this trip, and then have to win all six games at home to win the wild card. I dont see it as that desperate.
We still have a two game lead after tonight. The NL East is gone. Seven and Five, or definitely, Eight and Four, should do it. Going nine and three would mean we need two of three in DC, not to get swept in Philly, and to win all six at home to make it. I just dont see that happening, realistically. If we end up HAVING to go nine and three, I think we will miss the playoffs. As I said before, seven and five, or definitely, eight and four, will be enough.
Petro
September 21st, 2010
12:25 am
I’m stunned at the lack of overall baseball IQ from Brave fans. No wonder you’re all lousy sports fans. I was at the game tonight and in case you guys missed it, it was a like a playoff game. The luck has run out when Cox is starting a minor leaguer against Hamels. The fact that he didn’t get Hudson to pitch in this series is stunning. He’s knows better than that. Still, you Brave fans don’t deserve a winner anyway. You didn’t go to the games during your dynasty and you sure haven’t gone this year. Why don’t you people do root for the Georgia’s womens golf team.
Petro
September 21st, 2010
12:33 am
@ Heath – Not at all. More like, stealing candy from a Braves fan.
Robert T
September 21st, 2010
2:27 am
Wow, who would have thought those games against Pittsburgh and Washington would come back to bit Atlanta in the butt…forget about the series in Philly…they will get swept….hope for 5 out of 6 against Nats and Marlins….and then last weekend of the year we will see…as it stands now we will probably get Blanton/Kendrick, Hamels and Doc in the final series….with Atlanta throwing ready for this Lowe, JJ or whoever and Minor on Sunday…good luck I think we are going to need it.
Fat Lady
September 21st, 2010
8:07 am
LLaaallllaaLLaaa LLLllllaaaallllLLaallalla
Just warming up!!
longtimefan
September 22nd, 2010
9:56 pm
Enter your comments here
longtimefan
September 22nd, 2010
10:02 pm
One hit and two walks. What a great hitting coach Terry Pendleton is Does he ever gives his hitters a strategy for approaching a game. Just like the end of last season the team fails to hit. He should have been gone a long time ago. Hopefully a new manager doesn’t risk his career in Atlanta with this guy. I was 5 when I became a fan in 1953 and I have NEVER been so frustrated as I have been for the past month. This team has a manager who has already retired. When you see shots of the bench there is no enthusiasm. Time to go Bobby-the sooner the better.