Braves’ biggest problem may be Rockies, not Phillies (UPDATE: Jurrjens out)
Will Derrek Lee's grand slam Sunday in New York jump start the Braves to the playoffs?
(UPDATED at 3:25 p.m. below with news that rookie pitcher Brandon Beachy will replace starter Jair Jurrjens tonight.)
I’ve never really been a numbers guy, but sometimes in baseball there are numbers that can’t be avoided.
These for example: The Braves are three games back of Philadelphia in the National League East going into tonight’s series opener between the teams. They play the Phillies again in the final weekend of the season.
Loading ...Simple math says if the Braves don’t win at least four out of the six games against Philly, they will have to make up the minimum-three-game deficit in the other six games. That’s not likely to happen.
The Phillies have the pitching advantage in every game in this series: Cole Hamels (3-0, 0.44 in his last five starts) vs. Jair Jurrjens (11 earned runs, 19 hits in his last two) tonight; Roy Halladay vs. Mike Minor Tuesday and Roy Oswalt vs. Tommy Hanson Wednesday.
(UPDATE: The Braves just announced prospect Brandon Beachy will make his major league debut tonight in place of Jurrjens, who has a sore knee. This probably isn’t the way they wanted to go into this series. It means the Braves will be starting rookies on back to back nights: Beachy and Minor.)
Feeling confident?
The Braves are still in decent shape in the wild card race, with leads of 2 1/2 games over San Diego and 3 1/2 over Colorado. But the team they need to worry about the most may be the Rockies.
Below, I’ve listed the standings at the top of the National League East and West Divisions, as well as the wild card race. I’ve also listed the remaining schedule for each of the five teams involved, as well as what each team has done against their remaining opponents this season. Those five teams are listed in order of winning percentage against the opponents.
Finally, I’ve listed how each potential postseason team has fared of late. This is where the Phillies and Rockies really stand out. Even the Braves’ three-game sweep of the New York Mets over the weekend didn’t change the picture much.
Take a look:
♦ East W-L GB Phillies 89-61 — Braves 86-64 3 ♦West W-L GB Giants 84-66 –
Padres 83-66 ½ Rockies 82-67 1 ½ ♦ Wild card GB
Braves 86-64 —
Padres 83-66 2 ½ Rockies 82-67 3 ½ ♦ Remaining schedules
Phillies (12): 3 vs. Braves, 3 vs. Mets, 3 at Nationals, 3 at Braves. Braves (12): 3 at Phillies, 3 at Nationals, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Phillies. Giants (12): 3 at Cubs, 3 at Rockies, 3 vs. Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Padres. Padres (13): 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs. Reds, 4 vs. Cubs, 3 at Giants. Rockies (13): 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Giants, 3 vs. Dodgers, 4 at Cardinals. ♦ Record vs. remaining opponents Padres: vs. Dodgers (8-7), Reds (2-1), Cubs (4-0), Giants (10-5). Total: 24-13 (.649) Rockies: vs. Diamondbacks (9-6). Giants (8-7), Dodgers (7-7), Cardinals (9-6). Total: 33-26 (.559) Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537) Giants: vs. Cubs (3-1), Rockies (7-8), Diamondbacks (10-5), Padres (5-10). Total: 25-24 (.510) Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509) ♦ September Phillies: 15-3 Rockies: 13-5 Giants: 11-6 Braves: 9-9 Padres: 7-11 ♦ Last 30 games Rockies: 21-9 Phillies: 20-10 Giants: 16-14 Braves: 15-15 Padres: 12-18
♦
Bottom line: I think the Braves need to go at least 9-3 to make it to the postseason, if Colorado continues to play near this pace. The other wild card (no pun intended) is what happens if the Rockies win the West. The Braves would be battling the Giants and Padres for the last playoff spot.
So what do you think of the Braves’ chances? I’ve also put up a poll asking the question: How many games of the remaining 12 do the Braves need to win to make the playoffs?
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Instant repost
♦ Matt Ryan overcomes first hellish week (not that he noticed)
♦ Georgia is showing problems are deep and widespread
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248 comments Add your comment
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:55 pm
so lets talk about how badly the Phillies are going to destroy this rookie….
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:58 pm
Beachy to get lit up tonight.
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
4:02 pm
Yeah the way you destroyed Florida’s rookie last week. ha! ha! What was that score 7-1???? maybe?
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
4:06 pm
Well, I’d like to congratulate you guys for going to the stadium and support your home team. You know what? I’ve never been at the Ted. I’ve only been able to watch 28 games on TV this season (thank you TBS, you ruined my baseball life). I envy you guys, not for being a Phoollies fan, but to being able to go to the ballpark and support your team, instead of just keeping track of the game on Gameday… you guys are awesome!
All I'm Saying...
September 20th, 2010
4:06 pm
Great work, Schultz, appreciate the research, facts, figures, and the follow-up regarding JJ”s status.
My answer is 7 and 5 will do it for the Braves to win the WC no matter what the Rocks do as the Rocks will simply win their division, in my view.
The problem with 7 and 5 is that its barely a winning record and the Braves (and any playoff bound team for that matter) are better off if they are playing well going into the post-season and winning eight or more headed into the post-season seems more than just a game better than 7 and 5. And a team needs to be its most confident frame of mind come playoff time as confidence is huge in baseball.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
4:09 pm
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
4:02 pm
Yeah the way you destroyed Florida’s rookie last week. ha! ha! What was that score 7-1???? maybe?
Pitchamono, is Jorge Sosa a rookie? Is Andrew Miller a rookie? Nein!!! What rookie? The only rookie you guys faced the other day lost by a 2-1 score and it was Adalberto Mendez. Kudos to you too!
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
4:19 pm
Chief Pichanono – I apologize, my bad. Now I get it.
TrueBlueBravesFan
September 20th, 2010
4:25 pm
I wonder if the Rockies win the Wild Card if the Braves will remember that 10 run lead that they squandered againts them.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
4:40 pm
sending a rookie into raucous Citizens Bank Park is a good idea in which baseball universe??
any realistic braves fan knows they are terrified of the little kid getting knocked around tonight — I don’t think he makes it out of the 3rd…
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
4:41 pm
The Philadelpia Phillies are a Juggernaut – its going to take more than the Braves to stop them…
COOPER
September 20th, 2010
4:41 pm
Beachy deserves this shot , he has had a great year and many times the Braves are too slow in bringing up their young rookies.But it doesn’t matter how good he does , if the Braves don’t have hitting to back it up. Because the Braves are playing the Phillys , with their potent hitting machine Beachy will need at least 5 run from his teammates.
heartofdarkness
September 20th, 2010
4:46 pm
Hey, Don Carmen, what’s the over and under on the number of drunk Phillies fans who get tasered during the series.
Jason
September 20th, 2010
4:47 pm
8-4 ought to do the trick (3-3 against the Phillies and 5-1 against the rest of the field).
Jake
September 20th, 2010
4:48 pm
Statistics will tell you that on average, 90 wins is good enough to make the wildcard in the NL. If the Braves go 7-5, they would finish with 93 wins which would have won the wildcard in every year since the inception, except for ‘99. My prediction is that 6-6 would probably get them in and perhaps 5-7 would make it too.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
5:19 pm
probably the same over/under as how many dingers Beachy will give up, heartofdarkness.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
5:20 pm
the taser thing was hilarious by the way, I was at that game, absolutely hilarious, the players actually were cracking up…
Beached
September 20th, 2010
5:39 pm
Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, and then of course Hanson, versus Holliday, Hamels, and Oswalt? Are you kidding? I’m a Braves fan, and I really like the future of Braves pitching with Minor (and I guess Beachy, who seems to have had a good season) and Hanson (plus Jurrjens and Medlen, etc.), but… that does NOT read “Braves sweep!” to me. Braves will be lucky to scrape out of town with one W.
Einstein
September 20th, 2010
5:46 pm
How ’bout my man, Manny “I’llcostya” serving up Lee’s grand slam. Once a sorry pitcher, always a sorry pitcher and it only took Cox 4 seasons to notice this. Where are my other “main men”, Kolb, Yates, Boyer, Reitzma, and the infamous Claude “the little Frenchman” Ramon’? I think we make the playoffs and in true Bobby Cox fashion, one-and-done.
Obee
September 20th, 2010
5:49 pm
The Braves stand a great chance going just 6-6. The Rockies would have to go 10-3, and the Padres 9-4 just to tie. I like those odds.
Einstein
September 20th, 2010
5:51 pm
Thank you all the math majors on this board. Bottom line is that the Braves need to win at least 8, and finish on a roll.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
5:55 pm
The Braves are going to need four extra games while the Phillies take a vacation in order to catch them. Thanks for Mike Vick as well. It was real. See y’all in the spring after Cliff Lee signs on for a couple of years.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
5:56 pm
Did I forget to say “GOPHILLIES GO?
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
5:58 pm
Go Phils!
Obee
September 20th, 2010
5:59 pm
No Einstein, the Braves don’t need to win eight, but they might have to. It’s just unlikely.
Heath
September 20th, 2010
6:02 pm
Lot of Phillies fans on here trying to convince themselves this is going to be a walk in the park.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
6:07 pm
More likely a walkoff in the park.
bravesfansince66
September 20th, 2010
6:12 pm
JJ don’t look know but your slip is showing. Could you imagine Smoltz whining about his knee in a playoff stretch? Give me a break!
Obee
September 20th, 2010
6:13 pm
Phillies fans will never admit that the best cheese steaks anywhere are at the Mad Italian in Atlanta. Go Braves!
dawg4u
September 20th, 2010
6:18 pm
Enter your comments here
Gwinnett Fred
September 20th, 2010
6:19 pm
If the Braves can’t hold off Colorado with a 3.5 game lead and 2 weeks to play, then we don’t deserve to go to the playoffs.
We are in position to finish 7-5, which shouldn’t be a problem for a playoff calibur team, and force someone to go 11-2. If the other team, Rockies or not, can accomplish this – then congrats to them.
This isn’t the time for scoreboard watching – it’s time to continue to take matters into our own hands.
dawg4u
September 20th, 2010
6:22 pm
Enter your comments here I think 8-4 gets it done. I think we’ll split with the Phillies in the six games left with them and go 5-1 against the Nationals and Marlins – winning two of three against the Nats and sweeping the Marlins. I just wish Bobby Cox could have set the rotation up so that our best pitcher Tim Hudson could have at least faced the Phils once in the most important series of the year. That to me is just mind boggling that he didn’t juggle the rotation for the Phillies.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
6:32 pm
Hey, that’s not fair. By the way did you see the finish to Sunday’s game? Jason Werth crushed that ball. But can the Phillies keep him. I think the owners have cash hidden away just for him, and Lee.
GOPHILLIESGO
September 20th, 2010
6:36 pm
You Atlanta fans have it great. This is the best Phillies blog out there. Did you see M. Vick? Man Philadelphia is the place to be a sports fan.
gmorris
September 20th, 2010
9:12 pm
I’m a Phils fan and can see the Braves are favorites to take the wild card. If the Phils keep winning, they’ll shut it down before the last 3 in Atlanta which should let the Braves finish strong. Trick is avoiding a red hot Rockies team in the NLDS.
Mike Smith
September 20th, 2010
9:37 pm
History tells us that there was only one year between 1995 and 2008 that 92 wins wouldn’t have been better than the 5th best record in the NL. Braves get in at 7-5.
dawg gone
September 20th, 2010
10:07 pm
Hate to say it but Braves will be lucky to make Play-offs. If They do they will exit first round. Braves just don’t get better at end of year they get worse. Best wishes Bobby.
Brandon Beachy
September 20th, 2010
10:26 pm
[...] [...]
Ken
September 20th, 2010
10:27 pm
The Braves offense has no creativity at all. The lost this game in the 3nd inning when they only got 1 run. This has been their achilles heal lately . Double plays all night long in key situations . Do they ever think about a suprise bunt. Very disappointing performance tonight.
double
September 20th, 2010
10:39 pm
was it as you expected?Had it gone other way would you be surprised?Are you dissapointed?Keep the faith all will be fine.Phills to ws.
kwajbraves
September 20th, 2010
11:01 pm
We are not making the postseason and if we by any miracle make it will be a quick but predictable first round exit. It is a shame that we belly flopped this year because I can see the Marlins to become the second best team in the NL EAST next year. That line up is scary good if they can get some arms to go with those bats watch out Phils.
vinonoir (Phils fan)
September 20th, 2010
11:34 pm
A lot of Braves fans make an excellent point about only needing to go 7-5 to make the wildcard. The Braves have played excellent ball this year and have some pretty impressive young players. The NL East would be well represented by the Phils and Braves in the playoffs. The scarest team to me thought is the Rockies. If any of teams sprinting to the playoffs finish line could go 12-1 it would be them.
MitchC
September 21st, 2010
12:17 am
Jeff, I dont agree about 9-3 to win the wild card. Counting tonight’s loss, you’re saying they need to go 9-2. No.
We need not to get swept in Philly, to win two out of three in DC, and to go home, and win four of the six games against the Phillies and Florida. Seven wins would do it. Yes, the Rockies are hot, but they’re still chasing us, and we play very well at home.
What you’re essentially saying is: We need to win two of three at Philly and DC, and go five and one at home, or, we can go 500 on the rest of this trip, and then have to win all six games at home to win the wild card. I dont see it as that desperate.
We still have a two game lead after tonight. The NL East is gone. Seven and Five, or definitely, Eight and Four, should do it. Going nine and three would mean we need two of three in DC, not to get swept in Philly, and to win all six at home to make it. I just dont see that happening, realistically. If we end up HAVING to go nine and three, I think we will miss the playoffs. As I said before, seven and five, or definitely, eight and four, will be enough.
Petro
September 21st, 2010
12:25 am
I’m stunned at the lack of overall baseball IQ from Brave fans. No wonder you’re all lousy sports fans. I was at the game tonight and in case you guys missed it, it was a like a playoff game. The luck has run out when Cox is starting a minor leaguer against Hamels. The fact that he didn’t get Hudson to pitch in this series is stunning. He’s knows better than that. Still, you Brave fans don’t deserve a winner anyway. You didn’t go to the games during your dynasty and you sure haven’t gone this year. Why don’t you people do root for the Georgia’s womens golf team.
Petro
September 21st, 2010
12:33 am
@ Heath – Not at all. More like, stealing candy from a Braves fan.
Robert T
September 21st, 2010
2:27 am
Wow, who would have thought those games against Pittsburgh and Washington would come back to bit Atlanta in the butt…forget about the series in Philly…they will get swept….hope for 5 out of 6 against Nats and Marlins….and then last weekend of the year we will see…as it stands now we will probably get Blanton/Kendrick, Hamels and Doc in the final series….with Atlanta throwing ready for this Lowe, JJ or whoever and Minor on Sunday…good luck I think we are going to need it.
Fat Lady
September 21st, 2010
8:07 am
LLaaallllaaLLaaa LLLllllaaaallllLLaallalla
Just warming up!!
longtimefan
September 22nd, 2010
9:56 pm
Enter your comments here
longtimefan
September 22nd, 2010
10:02 pm
One hit and two walks. What a great hitting coach Terry Pendleton is Does he ever gives his hitters a strategy for approaching a game. Just like the end of last season the team fails to hit. He should have been gone a long time ago. Hopefully a new manager doesn’t risk his career in Atlanta with this guy. I was 5 when I became a fan in 1953 and I have NEVER been so frustrated as I have been for the past month. This team has a manager who has already retired. When you see shots of the bench there is no enthusiasm. Time to go Bobby-the sooner the better.