Braves’ biggest problem may be Rockies, not Phillies (UPDATE: Jurrjens out)
Will Derrek Lee's grand slam Sunday in New York jump start the Braves to the playoffs?
(UPDATED at 3:25 p.m. below with news that rookie pitcher Brandon Beachy will replace starter Jair Jurrjens tonight.)
I’ve never really been a numbers guy, but sometimes in baseball there are numbers that can’t be avoided.
These for example: The Braves are three games back of Philadelphia in the National League East going into tonight’s series opener between the teams. They play the Phillies again in the final weekend of the season.
Loading ...Simple math says if the Braves don’t win at least four out of the six games against Philly, they will have to make up the minimum-three-game deficit in the other six games. That’s not likely to happen.
The Phillies have the pitching advantage in every game in this series: Cole Hamels (3-0, 0.44 in his last five starts) vs. Jair Jurrjens (11 earned runs, 19 hits in his last two) tonight; Roy Halladay vs. Mike Minor Tuesday and Roy Oswalt vs. Tommy Hanson Wednesday.
(UPDATE: The Braves just announced prospect Brandon Beachy will make his major league debut tonight in place of Jurrjens, who has a sore knee. This probably isn’t the way they wanted to go into this series. It means the Braves will be starting rookies on back to back nights: Beachy and Minor.)
Feeling confident?
The Braves are still in decent shape in the wild card race, with leads of 2 1/2 games over San Diego and 3 1/2 over Colorado. But the team they need to worry about the most may be the Rockies.
Below, I’ve listed the standings at the top of the National League East and West Divisions, as well as the wild card race. I’ve also listed the remaining schedule for each of the five teams involved, as well as what each team has done against their remaining opponents this season. Those five teams are listed in order of winning percentage against the opponents.
Finally, I’ve listed how each potential postseason team has fared of late. This is where the Phillies and Rockies really stand out. Even the Braves’ three-game sweep of the New York Mets over the weekend didn’t change the picture much.
Take a look:
♦ East W-L GB Phillies 89-61 — Braves 86-64 3 ♦West W-L GB Giants 84-66 –
Padres 83-66 ½ Rockies 82-67 1 ½ ♦ Wild card GB
Braves 86-64 —
Padres 83-66 2 ½ Rockies 82-67 3 ½ ♦ Remaining schedules
Phillies (12): 3 vs. Braves, 3 vs. Mets, 3 at Nationals, 3 at Braves. Braves (12): 3 at Phillies, 3 at Nationals, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Phillies. Giants (12): 3 at Cubs, 3 at Rockies, 3 vs. Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Padres. Padres (13): 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs. Reds, 4 vs. Cubs, 3 at Giants. Rockies (13): 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Giants, 3 vs. Dodgers, 4 at Cardinals. ♦ Record vs. remaining opponents Padres: vs. Dodgers (8-7), Reds (2-1), Cubs (4-0), Giants (10-5). Total: 24-13 (.649) Rockies: vs. Diamondbacks (9-6). Giants (8-7), Dodgers (7-7), Cardinals (9-6). Total: 33-26 (.559) Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537) Giants: vs. Cubs (3-1), Rockies (7-8), Diamondbacks (10-5), Padres (5-10). Total: 25-24 (.510) Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509) ♦ September Phillies: 15-3 Rockies: 13-5 Giants: 11-6 Braves: 9-9 Padres: 7-11 ♦ Last 30 games Rockies: 21-9 Phillies: 20-10 Giants: 16-14 Braves: 15-15 Padres: 12-18
♦
Bottom line: I think the Braves need to go at least 9-3 to make it to the postseason, if Colorado continues to play near this pace. The other wild card (no pun intended) is what happens if the Rockies win the West. The Braves would be battling the Giants and Padres for the last playoff spot.
So what do you think of the Braves’ chances? I’ve also put up a poll asking the question: How many games of the remaining 12 do the Braves need to win to make the playoffs?
♦
Instant repost
♦ Matt Ryan overcomes first hellish week (not that he noticed)
♦ Georgia is showing problems are deep and widespread
♦
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC and Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
248 comments Add your comment
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:28 pm
Good point, Gators!
But what if they don’t have home-field? Will they start on Tuesday?
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:32 pm
And Gators…
what if somehow (yes, it would be a minor miracle with the standings now) the Braves clinch the division?
Then the Phils might encounter the danger of not only losing the division, but also being knocked out of the playoffs. I know a lot of stars would have to align for all of those to happen….we shall see!
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:33 pm
Nope – division series for NL start oct 6th & 7th so would still be on the 5th daysrest for whoever pitched Friday Oct 1st, even if they played on the 6th
The Choperator
September 20th, 2010
1:37 pm
Jeff, please read this comment because I think your message is being lost on a lot of readers. If the Braves go 8-4 and the Rockies go 12-1, they are tied at 92-68 (we both understand that). The Giants would have to lose at least two games to the Rockies in this scenario, and if they win all the rest of their games, they finish 92-68 (so that’s finishing 10-2 on their remaining games, only losing two to the Rockies. It would also include a sweep of the Padres, meaning the Dads could finish no better than 91-69). If the Giants are the team that end up on the outs, the (ice cold) Padres would have to finish 11-2 to tie the Rox and the Braves.
It is mathematically possible that the Braves could finish 8-4 and not even get a chance to play a one game playoff, if the Rockies finish 13-0 and the Padres finish 12-1 or 13-0. But chances of this are very slim (and hinge on a Giants collapse).
What I think you’re trying to say is that the Braves must finish 9-3 to GUARANTEE themselves a playoff spot. But 8-4 looks pretty darn good, and I think 7-5 will do it too. (Heck, I think 6-6 gives them a shot.) I’ve read enough of your articles to know you aren’t naive enough to expect the above scenario to play out.
I appreciate all the graphics and standings from your article. It helps break down the playoff picture quite a bit, and allows us to appreciate how crucial the past weekend was for the Braves’ wild card hopes.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:38 pm
Keith – if you guys come back and clinch the division and knock the phils out of the WC then congrats to you! I just assume though that with all the crack math done by the braves fans in previous posts about how they would only need to go 7-5 or 8-4 to lock up the wild card then the phils would need to go 4-8 or 5-7 to do the same based on the three game differece. Crazier things have happened for sure but doubtful. If you dont want the Phils to make the playoffs you best sweep both series. Good luck!
Jeff
September 20th, 2010
1:39 pm
Correction on my post. 6 games- 3 each for SD and CO v. SF. That is still 6 losses going somewhere. If they each pick up 2 of those losses, not much room for error for any of them.
DawgDad
September 20th, 2010
1:42 pm
What if Derrek Lee didn’t just tee up on an Acosta beach ball fast ball and really is zeroing in? The Braves need a dinger or two and a mess of RBI’s out of him this week, and if he delivers the Braves chances balloon exponentially.
Mike
September 20th, 2010
1:43 pm
Cmon Jeff… I know the Rockies are hot, but if the Braves go 7-5, then the Rockies would have to go 11-2 over their last 13 just to make it a TIE. Then it would be a one-game playoff. The Padres would have to go 10-3 over that stretch to make it a TIE. I think the Braves will go either 8-4 or 7-5. If the Braves go 8-4, then Colorado would have to go 12-1 and Padres 11-2…. I just don’t see those things happening.
One way that things could go our way is if Philadelphia has clinched by the last series, they may rest some of their BIG GUNS, which could help us win 2 or 3 and get in as the Wild Card.
Do you see the Braves going worse than 7-5??? If they do, then they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyways.
I hope Braves fans pack the Ted next week. It needs to be a playoff atmosphere. I will be there Monday, Tuesday, and Friday. Go Braves!
A
Jeff
September 20th, 2010
1:49 pm
Choperator nailed it. 6-6 will be dicey. 7-5 should be OK. 8-4 close to a lock. 9-3 lock.
urban redneck
September 20th, 2010
1:53 pm
wow. pennant race again. by gar, it’s been a while. however, i am not going to start crunching numbers or counting. just glad to be back in the thick of it. i would like to add that all these come from behind wins are just nerve wracking–sure picked a heckuva day to quit methamphetamines.
Alex
September 20th, 2010
1:58 pm
95 games to win the wildcard DUMB highest NL wild card winner was 93 it usually is about 91-92 game winner they just need to go 8-4 and coast in
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
2:00 pm
That’s what I’ve been saying, DawgDad. Lee, McLouth and Gonzales have all started knocking paint of outfield walls all of a sudden, with a few going over.
If they keep it up, it changes everything, because Infante and Prado are gonna hit. Heyward is hot. Mac got two hits yesterday and is still a good clutch hitter. Then you got a bench with Diaz, Glaus, Melky, Heinski, Conrad.
If our starters can just get quality starts (6 innings – 3 runs), our hitters can run up the Phillies’ starters pitch counts and get into their bullpen, we just might win a couple in this series.
I know, Phillie fanatics, it’s all got to fall into place, it might . . .
Mediocre
September 20th, 2010
2:00 pm
The Braves are mediocre at best against the Nats and Marlins. I hate to say it, but 1-5 is a probability against the Phillies. Braves miss the playoffs 2-3 games out of the wild card.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
2:01 pm
….paint off outfield …..
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
2:03 pm
Try a early Jack and Coke, urban redneck. It’s 5:00 somewhere.
robdawg08
September 20th, 2010
2:07 pm
8-4 should get them in as Wild Card. Yeah Jeff it sounds like a few guys shooting at the range during a drought (Pun intended). Its like telling your neighbor you broke your finger. She tells her mom,who tells a friend,who tells a lady at the beauty shop and now “your dead”.
I have zero confidence in JJ right now.
clay
September 20th, 2010
2:17 pm
WonderDawg-hahahaha. that is halarious man. You are about right on that one. We should just forfeit this series and the last one and give all those games to philly since they already have the n.l. wrapped up.
chris
September 20th, 2010
2:34 pm
Good column Jeff and agreed; we got to win 9/12 and yes those Marlins and Nationals tend to do us more damage than the teams with better records. What I fear is we go into Philly play our butts off come out with 2/3 or sweep then have major letdowns in the next 6 games against who else- the Nationals and Marlins
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
2:35 pm
Jeff Schultz – - From your article:
Record vs. remaining opponents
[...]
Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537)
Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509)
Sr., you just committed an error on those records. The Braves are 22-20 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Phoollies twice) and the Phoollies are 22-19 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Braves twice). See?
chris
September 20th, 2010
2:35 pm
And I agree the Rockies are more a threat! That 10-1 meltdown and sweep at their hands 2 weeks ago is a testimony as to how good they are..If the Braves win that last game we’re 4 1/2 up on them right now and only 2 back of Philly if the remaining games had had same outcome.
Ted M
September 20th, 2010
2:36 pm
Tonight’s lineup (7:05 SportSouth): Infante – 4 Heyward – 9 Prado – 5 Lee – 3 McCann – 2 Diaz – 7 Gonzalez – 6 Cabrera – 8 Jurrjens – 1
James
September 20th, 2010
2:36 pm
8-4 Let’s Go Braves!
Ted M
September 20th, 2010
2:39 pm
Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia might shut the rockies down. Pujols’ home batting average is .335
Bob Horner
September 20th, 2010
2:53 pm
Cabrera over McClouth..???
The Choperator
September 20th, 2010
2:58 pm
The following are the Braves’ magic numbers to eliminate every team still mathematically in the wild card hunt:
Giants: 11
Padres: 11
Reds (you never know): 11
Rockies: 10
Cardinals: 6
Marlins: 2
Mets: 1
But hell, lets go win the division.
Aunt Esther
September 20th, 2010
3:05 pm
This is sad…everybody is saying “as long as we win at least one game this series, we’ll be okay.”
I understand the point, but it is still a (very) defeatist attitude. The Braves aren’t as bad as they have recently played, and the phillies aren’t as good as *they’ve* played, either.
We should be thinking about going into philly and pounding ‘em. I bet the Braves are thinking this way.
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
3:14 pm
I think the Rockies will win the west if they correct thier road woes, but i think we will beat out San Fran & the Padres, for the wildcard.
Ted M
September 20th, 2010
3:17 pm
I was surprised about Cabrera over McClouth too…well actually Cox doesn’t like going w/the hot bat.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:18 pm
What does a playoff atmosphere feel like at Turner Field? 30,000 fans as opposed to the normal 18,000?
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:20 pm
The Phillies are proactive and have set their rotation the way they need it for the last two weeks. The braves are reactive, chasing the juggernaut Phillies.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:21 pm
the braves actually had around 7,000 fans at the day game last week – can you believe that? 7,000 fans in the midst of a pennant race???
Duluth's Finest
September 20th, 2010
3:23 pm
confirmed on the 7k or 8k last Wed – I was there – I believe the paid attendance was somewhere around 20k, but there was no more than 8k in attendance – Mark Bradley actually wrote about this about a month ago…don’t blame me though – I have been to 18 games this year, more than enough for one fan IMHO.
Bob Horner
September 20th, 2010
3:24 pm
Don people live too far away Turner Field…the poor attendance is because of logistics…Braves fans are just as good and loyal as Phillie fans…
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
3:24 pm
I agree with ya Aunt Esther, I think we will surprise them and take two up in philly, they will underestimate our starting pitching and end up with close games in the late innings, then it will be a battle of the bullpens as they get shut down by Wags & company, while our offense pulls off a couple of narrow come from behind wins, just like they have done all season. Go Braves!
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:24 pm
maybe you go to the games Duluth, but whats up with the rest of Atlanta??
Duluth's Finest
September 20th, 2010
3:26 pm
I have to diagree with you Bob Horner – in college football, the south has passionate fans – there is general apathy for the braves though, I live here, I go to the games, I know – the Northeast is a different level of baseball support and knowledge, again, IMHO.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:29 pm
For those who missed it, the Braves have announced prospect Brandon Beachy will start in place of Jair Jurrjens (sore knee). Here’s David O’Brien’s Twitter flash: http://twitter.com/ajcbraves
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:33 pm
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:21 pm
the braves actually had around 7,000 fans at the day game last week – can you believe that? 7,000 fans in the midst of a pennant race???
You think you’re so smart… try mixing the Nats + day game (not a weekend game) and you won’t get to 35000 fans in the stadium.
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:34 pm
Jeff Schultz – – From your article:
Record vs. remaining opponents
[...]
Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537)
Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509)
Sir, you just committed an error on those records. The Braves are 22-20 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Phoollies twice) and the Phoollies are 22-19 against its remaining opponents (you counted the Braves twice). See?
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:38 pm
The Choperator — I would like to hire you as my translator, if you’re willing to work cheap.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:40 pm
Jeff’s Math Tudor — I think you mean “tutor” unless of course you’re a house, in which case you’re probably condemned. (Don’t mess with me. Words are my business.)
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
3:41 pm
LuisG — Yes, I did that on purpose, because they play them twice. That wasn’t an accident.
Chief Pitchanono
September 20th, 2010
3:47 pm
Ok, Ok, we get it, nobody goes to Braves games, yeah I’m sure it looks bad on us as fans, but I don’t uderstand why everybody keeps talk’n about it. It is what it is. We don’t love our team any less, we just follow the team in other ways besides being at the stadium everday. If everyone told the truth, its probably because we all work long hours, and live too far away from the stadium, that makes it a big pain in the butt to drive home pack up the kids, drive back to atlanta for the game and then drive all the way back home. Besides HDTV is awesome!!! and we have really nice couches down here, that combo is hard to beat.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:48 pm
LuisG – Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:33 pm
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:21 pm
the braves actually had around 7,000 fans at the day game last week – can you believe that? 7,000 fans in the midst of a pennant race???
You think you’re so smart… try mixing the Nats + day game (not a weekend game) and you won’t get to 35000 fans in the stadium.
——
So the Phillies have had no day games in their streak of 117 straight sellouts?? – you are an idiot sir – the Phillies sell out day games, night games, weekend, weekday – we dont make excuses…
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:50 pm
Sending a rookie into the Lions Den??? The Braves truly don’t want to win the division.
LuisG - Win-it-4Bobby-n-Chipper
September 20th, 2010
3:50 pm
Jeff Schultz – Yes, I know they play them twice, but the record shouldn’t be taken into account twice. If you do that, you’re almost considering the Braves will play two different teams with the exact same record, instead of playing twice just one team (in this case, the Phoollies). That’s my point.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
3:50 pm
Hey Genius LuisG – we have had crappy opponents for day games and guess what, 117 straight sellouts. We had an afternoon game against Washington on April 15th and guess what, sell out! Atlanta just doesn’t support it sports teams. Don’t get defensive about it, just accept it. Obviously there’s a core base but it’s not big and kudo;s to those of you who do support your team!
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
3:51 pm
we will continue to embarass you about the attendance until the problem is rectified – the games start at the same times in Philadelphia, and Philadelphians have High Def and jobs as well – stop with the excuses.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
3:54 pm
amen Gators, all they do is make excuses, instead of just saying, you’re right, the attendance is embarassing and we should do better as fans.
clay
September 20th, 2010
3:55 pm
beachy to start tonight.