Braves’ biggest problem may be Rockies, not Phillies (UPDATE: Jurrjens out)
Will Derrek Lee's grand slam Sunday in New York jump start the Braves to the playoffs?
(UPDATED at 3:25 p.m. below with news that rookie pitcher Brandon Beachy will replace starter Jair Jurrjens tonight.)
I’ve never really been a numbers guy, but sometimes in baseball there are numbers that can’t be avoided.
These for example: The Braves are three games back of Philadelphia in the National League East going into tonight’s series opener between the teams. They play the Phillies again in the final weekend of the season.
Loading ...Simple math says if the Braves don’t win at least four out of the six games against Philly, they will have to make up the minimum-three-game deficit in the other six games. That’s not likely to happen.
The Phillies have the pitching advantage in every game in this series: Cole Hamels (3-0, 0.44 in his last five starts) vs. Jair Jurrjens (11 earned runs, 19 hits in his last two) tonight; Roy Halladay vs. Mike Minor Tuesday and Roy Oswalt vs. Tommy Hanson Wednesday.
(UPDATE: The Braves just announced prospect Brandon Beachy will make his major league debut tonight in place of Jurrjens, who has a sore knee. This probably isn’t the way they wanted to go into this series. It means the Braves will be starting rookies on back to back nights: Beachy and Minor.)
Feeling confident?
The Braves are still in decent shape in the wild card race, with leads of 2 1/2 games over San Diego and 3 1/2 over Colorado. But the team they need to worry about the most may be the Rockies.
Below, I’ve listed the standings at the top of the National League East and West Divisions, as well as the wild card race. I’ve also listed the remaining schedule for each of the five teams involved, as well as what each team has done against their remaining opponents this season. Those five teams are listed in order of winning percentage against the opponents.
Finally, I’ve listed how each potential postseason team has fared of late. This is where the Phillies and Rockies really stand out. Even the Braves’ three-game sweep of the New York Mets over the weekend didn’t change the picture much.
Take a look:
♦ East W-L GB Phillies 89-61 — Braves 86-64 3 ♦West W-L GB Giants 84-66 –
Padres 83-66 ½ Rockies 82-67 1 ½ ♦ Wild card GB
Braves 86-64 —
Padres 83-66 2 ½ Rockies 82-67 3 ½ ♦ Remaining schedules
Phillies (12): 3 vs. Braves, 3 vs. Mets, 3 at Nationals, 3 at Braves. Braves (12): 3 at Phillies, 3 at Nationals, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Phillies. Giants (12): 3 at Cubs, 3 at Rockies, 3 vs. Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Padres. Padres (13): 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs. Reds, 4 vs. Cubs, 3 at Giants. Rockies (13): 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Giants, 3 vs. Dodgers, 4 at Cardinals. ♦ Record vs. remaining opponents Padres: vs. Dodgers (8-7), Reds (2-1), Cubs (4-0), Giants (10-5). Total: 24-13 (.649) Rockies: vs. Diamondbacks (9-6). Giants (8-7), Dodgers (7-7), Cardinals (9-6). Total: 33-26 (.559) Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537) Giants: vs. Cubs (3-1), Rockies (7-8), Diamondbacks (10-5), Padres (5-10). Total: 25-24 (.510) Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509) ♦ September Phillies: 15-3 Rockies: 13-5 Giants: 11-6 Braves: 9-9 Padres: 7-11 ♦ Last 30 games Rockies: 21-9 Phillies: 20-10 Giants: 16-14 Braves: 15-15 Padres: 12-18
♦
Bottom line: I think the Braves need to go at least 9-3 to make it to the postseason, if Colorado continues to play near this pace. The other wild card (no pun intended) is what happens if the Rockies win the West. The Braves would be battling the Giants and Padres for the last playoff spot.
So what do you think of the Braves’ chances? I’ve also put up a poll asking the question: How many games of the remaining 12 do the Braves need to win to make the playoffs?
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♦ Georgia is showing problems are deep and widespread
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248 comments Add your comment
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:59 am
The Follies are not that good. They got swept by the awful Astros.
Booyah
September 20th, 2010
12:00 pm
Jeff – actually a good time to play the Phillies – they HAVE to cool at some point… and so do the Rockies. 7 and 5 gets us in to wild card.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:01 pm
The Follie players must have a rabbit’s paw in there pockets.It ought be an investigation. Chop!
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
12:01 pm
WonderDawg — Going to be honest here, I’ve been so consumed with football last 2 weeks that I didn’t give a thought to whether the Braves would try to set up their rotation for the 2 series against the Phillies, plus you had the Lowe injury, etc. But the matchups this series are pretty tilted. (Hanson-Oswalt could be gem though).
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:02 pm
I still say if McLouth, Lee, and Gonzales continue thaeir power surge, that kinda trumps stuff lik Nats and Marlins issues. It did this past weekend (issue – winning on the road)!
Phillies will OWN YOU
September 20th, 2010
12:03 pm
You Johnny Rebs are so screwed, you’ll be lucky to pull out 1 win in this 3 game set. And then come the last series of the year, we’re gonna go “Sherman’s March to the Sea” on you fools. Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt, BRING IT.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:03 pm
We are gunning for the division , not the stinky wid card! We do not want sloopy seconds! Chop!
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:05 pm
Huddy canot pitch evry game, boys and girls. The Follies luck will soon run dry.
Jim L.
September 20th, 2010
12:06 pm
Ok all you Braves fans – The Phillies, in the beginning months of the year, had just about everyone and their mother on the DL at some point during the year. Our offense slumped for just about the entire summer, and our pitching staff were the ones winning us a lot of the games. You went 7-5 against a wounded, mediocre-hitting team. Now, you’re playing a Phillies team that is nearly at full strength (minus Jimmy Rollins), with an offense that is rolling, and a pitching staff that is still shutting down opposing teams. With the Big 3 on the hill vs. the Braves, how can you think you’ll sweep us? Won’t happen. Our team is simply playing better right now. I think the Braves have a great shot at the Wild Card – but after that, it’s anybody’s game, really.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:06 pm
Yanks own the follies, hero.
Johnny Reb
September 20th, 2010
12:07 pm
I hope we sell out the Ted so you stinky, yankees (people, not team) can’t get tickets, and won’t come down here stinking up the place.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
12:08 pm
Booyah (another others, again on Colorado’s season) – “actually a good time to play the Phillies – they HAVE to cool at some point… and so do the Rockies.” Not sure I agree. Both may indeed cool off. I keep thinking of three years ago with the Rockies and I just looked it up to confirm. In 2007, Colorado was 76-72 and went 24-1 — that’s right, 24-1 – down the stretch (including a 1-game playoff) to finish 90-73 and eventually met Boston in the World Series.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:08 pm
The Philles will choke under pressure again. That’s their MO.
Dr. Warren
September 20th, 2010
12:10 pm
Ah, remember the days when the Braves had 9 game leads at this point…
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
12:11 pm
@ Phiily fools
Vomiting is not allowed at the Ted. If you are not man enough to hold your alcohol, dont drink or man up.
John Smoltz
September 20th, 2010
12:17 pm
Since the Chipper pep talk , we have been playing loose and that is a good sign. The Braves is still America’s team. Our games are played more often nationally than the Philles. Braves rule!
Wanna hear a good joke? What did the Philly say, when the Brave grabbed him by the tail? That’s the end of me.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:17 pm
You shoulda finished that tale up, Jeff, “where the roided up Manny, Popi and others won the title for Boston.”
The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, all should have asterisks by their names in the record books for their titles in the ’90s and ’00s.
Tom Glavine
September 20th, 2010
12:19 pm
Do I need to come out of retirement to shut down the Phillies?
Dr. Phil
September 20th, 2010
12:19 pm
Pitch the rookie tonight. He might surprise us. JJ is average at best.
Steve Avery
September 20th, 2010
12:21 pm
I still have some stuff left in the tank, Tommy. Let’s get Mad Dog on the Line so we can be eligible for the post season roster.
O'Brien
September 20th, 2010
12:23 pm
Jeff,
It is very possible for the Rockies to go 11-2 to finish the year. But if they go 11-2 (including one series against the Giants), chances are the Rockies win the division.
And if that happens, I think we beat the Giants for the wildcard.
I agree with those predicting a 7-5 record for the Braves (3 and 3 against the Phillies).
Bob Horner
September 20th, 2010
12:23 pm
Jeff the Rockies 24-1 run was like Tiger’s Majors run several years ago…a 1 time thing…the stars were aligned…too many things have go perfectly your way..IMHO
Greg " Mad Dod' Maddux
September 20th, 2010
12:23 pm
Guys, the Braves have the arms to do it without uscoming out of retirement. Go Braves.
Chief Knockahoma Sr
September 20th, 2010
12:26 pm
True Braves fans will not be settling for a wild card spot. It is still early. Chop!
Tami
September 20th, 2010
12:32 pm
EVERY single game is a must-win, in my opinion. You have to figure that the Phillies, Rockies & Giants are not going away. And the Padres could somehow revive themselves — maybe. No division winner wants to face the Rockies or the Reds in a short series in the LDS. So….every game that the major contenders play will be key. There is not one single game left on the schedule for any of these teams to squander. It’s crunch time. I’m just hopeful that the Braves rise to the challenge and play good, solid baseball down the stretch, as they did against the Mets. The thing I’d like to see them improve on BEFORE tonight’s game is the first inning runs they give up to the opponent. Make the other team work just as hard to get runs as the Braves have to do. And at the end of the day, if the Braves still don’t make the playoffs, at least they played their last remaining games admirably. But….I’d LOVE to see them in the postseason! GO BRAVES!!
Jim L.
September 20th, 2010
12:37 pm
Your games are played more often nationally than the Phillies? Tell me how many times you have sold out Turner Field, and compare that to Citizens Bank Park. Get back to me then.
kreedham
September 20th, 2010
12:40 pm
With the pitching matchups the Braves have to be patient! Work the count and get their pitch count up, score 2 or 3 early, and get them to go to the bullpen!
And resist temptation…don’t pitch Moylan and Venters everyday! If so it doesn’t have to be a full inning. Lots of arms in the bullpen!
Hampton Roads Dawg
September 20th, 2010
12:41 pm
At least 9-3 huh? You obviously aren’t a numbers man Schultz. The Rockies would have to go undefeated to tie the Braves. The Padres would have to lose only once to tie the Braves.
7-5 ought to do it, but I’ll take 9-3.
Dawg Fud
September 20th, 2010
12:53 pm
You are correct that the pitching matchup in this series v. Phillies is a daunting task. Hopefully we will be strategizing and tweaking our approach each inning, both offensively and defensively.
Easiest way to give yourself a chance: eliminate the errors.
Sammy
September 20th, 2010
12:53 pm
The Brave fans on this board who think they are going to sweep the Phillies are dellusional and have no sense of reality. Maybe they could ask the Falcons for some help. Braves are going to leave Philly at least 4 games back if not 6 games back.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:55 pm
Have the Roys been in a pennant race before? It’s a serious question.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
12:57 pm
Too bad the Phillies don’t have a blog for these geniuses.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
12:59 pm
Seriously, Atlanta fans, give it a rest. You idiots can’t even sell out playoff games no matter what sport it is. You are embarassing! It’s great that you could keep the division competitive for a few months while 17 of our players were on the DL and one point or another. I mean seriously, we’ve had our opening day roster together for a total of 12 games this year and your bragging about going 7-5 versus then Phillies earlier in the season. Kudos on a good run boys, tee times are free at Bear’s best starting October 4th and there’s a block reserved for you!
Frankie Wren
September 20th, 2010
1:00 pm
The Rockies have played well but thinking they can continue that pace and go 12-1 is just a little far fetched. You know the possibility the Braves can go 12-1 as well I guess. Sorry, not going to happen on both accounts. Rockies playing better on the road but still go to Zona and St. Louis at home for 4. Also, looks like the Giants are throwing their Big 3 so even at home that will be a challenge. If they approach anything close to 12-1 they win the West and wildcard is irrelevant.
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:00 pm
Roy Oswalt pitched in the World Series for the Astros in 2005.
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:03 pm
I think that 7-5 will help them clinch the WC, but they need 9-3 at least to take the division lead and hold it.
7-5 is very probable, and 8-4 is possible….9-3 would be solid if not spectacular.
Of course, the Braves have won the last 5/6 vs the Phillies…while I’ll agree the Phils didn’t have Oswalt during those last 6, the Braves have a tendency to play to the level of their competition.
I think 1-2 is probable and 2-1 is very possible (this series). Sweep would be a minor miracle, but crazier things have happened!
Doc Halladay
September 20th, 2010
1:05 pm
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:53 am
” the braves just aren’t as good as the Phillies.”
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Wow! Ya think? $83M payroll compared to, what is it now, $150M? And we’re (the Braves) not “as good?”
Hot dang, ESPN needs you, Don Carmen, for such analysis!
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Wow – what a cop out!!!!
Why play?
Just find the 8 teams with the highest payrolls and send them to the post season.
Of course that would mean the Cubs would be in. And the Mutts too. Do you know that Rays payoll is $17 million LESS than the Braves?
Do you know that the Braves payroll is more than twice San Diego’s?
Right now only 3 of the top 10 teams in payroll are guaranteed a playoff spot. And the only one realistically with a chance is San Francisco.
Stop yur whining!!!!
Doc Halladay
September 20th, 2010
1:11 pm
Booyah
September 20th, 2010
12:00 pm
Jeff – actually a good time to play the Phillies – they HAVE to cool at some point… and so do the Rockies. 7 and 5 gets us in to wild card
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The longest winning streak for a 162 game season is 20; by the 2002 A’s
Longest winning streak in a 154 game season is 21 – 1916 Cubs
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
1:11 pm
Oh, okay, I thought payroll might have just a little to do with success. My bad.
Phillies will OWN YOU
September 20th, 2010
1:11 pm
The Bravos are actually thinking about throwing a rookie out to pitch tonight. Meanwhile, the Phillies have aligned their three headed monster to ensure they have their best on the mound for the remaining 6 games with the Braves. You see thats how WINNERS operate. The Braves on the other hand had to pitch Lowe and Hudson against the piss poor Mets to make sure they didn’t lose another series to a cellar dweller LOL you’ll be lucky to win 1 and all you Braves fans know it. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
clay
September 20th, 2010
1:12 pm
this is why we play the game fellas…this is why you play all 162 games because you just never know what could happen. never bet on the game of baseball…its a funny game. the braves could go in and sweep (is it likely? NO) but it could happen. Then we are tied. True basball fans look at numbers and sometimes to much into numbers. Well if they go on that then heres numbers for tonight….Hamels has won his last 5 starts with a 0.77 ERA, that means he is due for a loss right? JJ is coming off 5 bad outings, that means he is due for a win right? The Phillies have won 7 straight games, so eventually they are due to lose right? These numbers look good for the braves tonight, but then again they could get no hit. baseball is a funny game thats why you play all 162, because anything could happen.
rico carty
September 20th, 2010
1:14 pm
7-5 will get it done, at least for a one game WC playoff. That means both the NL West winner and WC team from the West would have to lose no more than 2 games the rest of the way to beat ATL outright in regular season. Since they all play each other sevearl times, I think the best record they could come up with would be 3 losses, which would get the Braves at least a 1 game playoff if go 7-5 the rest of the way.
Reid Adair
September 20th, 2010
1:16 pm
Three teams in the West – Colorado, San Diego and San Francisco – have stepped it up in August and September to challenge not only for the division title but the wild card spot as well. I won’t be surprised if a team from the West gets the wild card.
Still just one person to blame for the roller coaster that this season has been – Frank Wren.
clay
September 20th, 2010
1:16 pm
IDK if taking your three best starters and putting them in the final 3 games of the season is a smart move or what some people like to say “thats how WINNERS operate” beause now what your doing is only giving your three best starters 2 or 3 days rest in the postseason which means they will tire out pretty quick so then you have to go to the bullpen and we all know how that goes for the Phils. Anyone else agree?
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:19 pm
Hey Jeff….good work.
Has anyone been talking about this point? I haven’t heard it if they are…
Manuel is being designated as a genius for aligning his rotation (the big 3) for both of the Braves’ series…and as a Braves fan, I’m not looking forward to that matchup.
But what about this?
They are able to clinch the division on Sunday, Oct 3rd. Then they start the division series on Tuesday, is that not correct?
My thing is, is it better to try and put the Braves out of reach in order to start your B starters in the Division opener (5 -game series) when one loss can set the tone?
Hmmmmm….
I know that potentially Hamels could start on 4 days rest….I don’t know….is that even an issue?
Keith
September 20th, 2010
1:20 pm
*correction:
Hamels would be on 3 days rest.
He would start on the last Friday and then again on Tuesday.
Jeff
September 20th, 2010
1:22 pm
There is some math logic missing here Jeff. If the Braves go 7-5, they win 93 games. Somebody has to win the West. That means that 93 wins has to be better than the other 2 teams that are in that division. Giants would need to go 9-3 to tie. San Diego 10-3 to tie. Colorado 11-2. I think that is asking alot of all those teams to play that well. Plus they all play each other. That is 9 games between the 3 teams. That is 9 losses among those teams. Am I missing something? 6-6 might get it done. 7-5 should surely work. 8-4 or better is a lock. Right?
Gators SUCK
September 20th, 2010
1:23 pm
clay – they wont be going on three days rest. Remember, if phils have division and home field clinched they won’t start the division series until thurs Oct 7th so whoever pitches Friday October 1st will be going on full rest and so on. Not an issue.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
1:24 pm
Forget it, clay. We don’t even have to play this series. Just scroll up and read those philly fans’ remarks.
All three games. Already over. The Phillies will OWN US!
Watch any sport and the first thing you find out is, philly fans talk a lot . . .
Jeff''s math tudor from college
September 20th, 2010
1:26 pm
Calm down people,I just talked to him, he’s re-doing the assignment!!