Braves’ biggest problem may be Rockies, not Phillies (UPDATE: Jurrjens out)
Will Derrek Lee's grand slam Sunday in New York jump start the Braves to the playoffs?
(UPDATED at 3:25 p.m. below with news that rookie pitcher Brandon Beachy will replace starter Jair Jurrjens tonight.)
I’ve never really been a numbers guy, but sometimes in baseball there are numbers that can’t be avoided.
These for example: The Braves are three games back of Philadelphia in the National League East going into tonight’s series opener between the teams. They play the Phillies again in the final weekend of the season.
Loading ...Simple math says if the Braves don’t win at least four out of the six games against Philly, they will have to make up the minimum-three-game deficit in the other six games. That’s not likely to happen.
The Phillies have the pitching advantage in every game in this series: Cole Hamels (3-0, 0.44 in his last five starts) vs. Jair Jurrjens (11 earned runs, 19 hits in his last two) tonight; Roy Halladay vs. Mike Minor Tuesday and Roy Oswalt vs. Tommy Hanson Wednesday.
(UPDATE: The Braves just announced prospect Brandon Beachy will make his major league debut tonight in place of Jurrjens, who has a sore knee. This probably isn’t the way they wanted to go into this series. It means the Braves will be starting rookies on back to back nights: Beachy and Minor.)
Feeling confident?
The Braves are still in decent shape in the wild card race, with leads of 2 1/2 games over San Diego and 3 1/2 over Colorado. But the team they need to worry about the most may be the Rockies.
Below, I’ve listed the standings at the top of the National League East and West Divisions, as well as the wild card race. I’ve also listed the remaining schedule for each of the five teams involved, as well as what each team has done against their remaining opponents this season. Those five teams are listed in order of winning percentage against the opponents.
Finally, I’ve listed how each potential postseason team has fared of late. This is where the Phillies and Rockies really stand out. Even the Braves’ three-game sweep of the New York Mets over the weekend didn’t change the picture much.
Take a look:
♦ East W-L GB Phillies 89-61 — Braves 86-64 3 ♦West W-L GB Giants 84-66 –
Padres 83-66 ½ Rockies 82-67 1 ½ ♦ Wild card GB
Braves 86-64 —
Padres 83-66 2 ½ Rockies 82-67 3 ½ ♦ Remaining schedules
Phillies (12): 3 vs. Braves, 3 vs. Mets, 3 at Nationals, 3 at Braves. Braves (12): 3 at Phillies, 3 at Nationals, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Phillies. Giants (12): 3 at Cubs, 3 at Rockies, 3 vs. Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Padres. Padres (13): 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs. Reds, 4 vs. Cubs, 3 at Giants. Rockies (13): 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Giants, 3 vs. Dodgers, 4 at Cardinals. ♦ Record vs. remaining opponents Padres: vs. Dodgers (8-7), Reds (2-1), Cubs (4-0), Giants (10-5). Total: 24-13 (.649) Rockies: vs. Diamondbacks (9-6). Giants (8-7), Dodgers (7-7), Cardinals (9-6). Total: 33-26 (.559) Braves: vs. Phillies (7-5), Nationals (7-8), Marlins (8-7), Phillies (7-5). Total: 29-25 (.537) Giants: vs. Cubs (3-1), Rockies (7-8), Diamondbacks (10-5), Padres (5-10). Total: 25-24 (.510) Phillies: vs. Braves (5-7), Mets (8-7), Nationals (9-5), Braves (5-7). Total: 27-26 (.509) ♦ September Phillies: 15-3 Rockies: 13-5 Giants: 11-6 Braves: 9-9 Padres: 7-11 ♦ Last 30 games Rockies: 21-9 Phillies: 20-10 Giants: 16-14 Braves: 15-15 Padres: 12-18
♦
Bottom line: I think the Braves need to go at least 9-3 to make it to the postseason, if Colorado continues to play near this pace. The other wild card (no pun intended) is what happens if the Rockies win the West. The Braves would be battling the Giants and Padres for the last playoff spot.
So what do you think of the Braves’ chances? I’ve also put up a poll asking the question: How many games of the remaining 12 do the Braves need to win to make the playoffs?
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♦ Georgia is showing problems are deep and widespread
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248 comments Add your comment
pj
September 20th, 2010
10:46 am
This has been covered, but just to put a bow on it. 9-3 would be great, but is completely unnecessary. 8-4 will all but clinch it, 6-6 will almost certainly be enough.
8 wins would get Atl to 94 wins. TWO Western teams would have to get to 94 to knock Atl out. Say Col gets to 94 (12-1); that would include 2 wins over SF. So then SF’s max is 94 (10-2) as well. Meaning they beat SD 3 times, so SD’s max is 93 (10-3). And that’s assuming those 3 go 22-0 in the games they don’t play each other. So 8-4, and Atl’s in with 99.999999% certainty.
Here’s something else not mentioned. Cheer for the Reds the next 2 weeks. I’d much rather open in Cincy than SF or Col. Reds are the 3 seed right now – prefer them to be #2. Let the Rockies (en fuego) or Giants (good rotation, at least in theory) harass Philly in Round 1.
Braves73
September 20th, 2010
10:49 am
The Philadelphia Phillies…suck big donkey balls. I was going to come on here and be objective, but a dilo Filthy fan got me fired up. The Braves will take two of three, then sweep the final series against your team, then you can go back to your outhouse and clean the fecal matter off your bed.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
10:50 am
I am more confident now than a week ago. Lee and mcLouth are hitting now and are dangerous every at bat, along with Prado, Infante, Mac and Heyward. Gonzales hitting with power, too.
It’s great to be excited about a late season series again. Thanks, Frank Wren!
JJ
September 20th, 2010
10:53 am
Braves73 – Phillies fans are incapable of having an informed, logical discussion about baseball. I know a few of them, and when you try to actually “break down” a lineup or rotation or just talk the game of baseball, they simply resort to one-liners and trash talking. Its in their blood, like they are from a different country or even another planet altogether.
STRETCH
September 20th, 2010
10:54 am
I wanna believe in this team and they really are starting to look good. McClouth and Lee are two much needed bats though and if they can continue to go, they have a chance.
The Braves are in control of the wildcard but im really worried about the teams they are facing, Nats, Marlins and Phillies. Just hope they can play better against the Nats and Marlins.
Notice how the Marlins and Nats rolled over to the Phillies while they will most likely give the Braves fits!
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
10:55 am
Well, aren’t folks from the big, northeastern cities really from another country?
Ted Turner
September 20th, 2010
10:56 am
I think we go 7-5 and just squeak in as the wild card. The NL West teams will beat each other up, and the Phillies may have the NL East wrapped going into the last weekend and rest some of their horses.
Assuming we do make it into the Playoffs, who do you think will get the nod to start? A few weeks ago we would have said Hudson-JJ-Hanson, but with the way JJ has struggled and Lowe has come on as of late, I think Bobby might go Hudson-Lowe-Hanson. What do you guys think?
Peter from Chicago
September 20th, 2010
10:57 am
Jeff, interesting article, but I have to disagree with you. I think your article was written out of a little bit of panic and also a sense of doomsday that really shouldn’t exist after this weekend. Take a look at the numbers based on your analysis.
If the Braves go 9-3 over their last 12 games, that puts them at 95-67, which surely would be enough to make the playoffs. Considering the Rockies are 82-67, they would have to go 13-0 over their final 13 games to catch the Braves and the Padres would have to go 12-1. That’s an insane pace to expect out of even the hottest of teams.
I personally think if the Braves manage 7-5, they still should lock up a playoff berth. The Padres would have to go 10-3 and the Rockies would have to go 11-2 just to tie them. I don’t see either of those teams pulling off a run like that.
Peter
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
10:57 am
With Lee, McLouth and Gonzales knocking balls to the walls, it makes the batting order tough from top to bottom.
Herschel Talker
September 20th, 2010
10:58 am
Schultzie:
Correct, Braves can’t play Phils in the first round. And don’t think that the Reds won’t want to avoid the Phils, so they’ll be looking to beat San Diego next week and won’t rest their regulars. We really need SD to beat up on SF and SD and then let SD choke against the others. In any event, these west teams beating each other should help.
HT
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:02 am
Braves73 and JJ – your post seem to be the ignorant ones – what would you like to break down? I’ll break it down with you…
Ace It!
September 20th, 2010
11:03 am
Jeff, you are correct about who the Braves would play if they are the wildcard.
Frankie Wren
September 20th, 2010
11:03 am
9-3, C’mon man do your homework. 7-5 puts them in the WC. Colorado is hot but they have to remain on a terror and ending in St Louis for 4 will be their demise.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:03 am
Phillies get the edge in starting rotation and lineup, this Phillies team also has a track-record of great septembers and are the 2-time defending NL Champs – the braves get the nod in bullpen.
mrcliff
September 20th, 2010
11:04 am
Hey Silly Philly Phan, I agree that the Phillies have more talent in nearly every position, but one thing the Braves bring into the game is countless breaks that have eluded them the past four seasons. David slew the giant, remember? Can you say 44 come-from-behind-wins? The Braves mojo is back. I think Alber Einstein said it best “I’d reather be a an optimist and a fool, than a pessimist and right.”
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:04 am
Phillies are 15-3 in September, started September 3 out and are now 3 up
Braves are 9-9 in September, started 3 up and are now 3 out.
What do you want to talk about?
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:06 am
The Phillies impart the utmost confidence in their fans – all season we KNEW we would still win the division – thats what happens when you know you have the best team.
What do you want us to do? Not be supremely confident? The Phillies are the better team.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:07 am
We know we have not made it to the World Series yet – but we feel our only real challenge will be from the American League. Thats just the way we feel.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:10 am
Once they have gotten healthy, the Phillies have MLBs best record – they have made up so much ground that they are with 1 1/2 game of the best record in all of baseball. What do you want to argue about? The Phillies are a juggernaut.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:11 am
MrCliff –There’s actually been cases of a fired (or even retired) manager coming back to coach the All-Star game, but don’t know that there’s something in black-and-white as far as the selection process. My guess is they would take the losing manager from the LCS the year before.
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
11:12 am
The Phillies goal in this series is not just to beat the braves, but to utterly demoralize them, break their backs. The Phillies sort of take it personally when other teams claim to be better than them when 3/4 of their roster is injured, and so do their fans.
Braves73
September 20th, 2010
11:12 am
Don Carmen – I had to lower my post to “ignorant level” so you and all the Philly faithful could understand.
Here, I’ll try to speak to you in a language that is significantly easier for you to comprehend. The Braves are 7-5 against your unbeatable Phillies this year. They match up well against your team, and usually rise up to the level of competition they are facing. They will win tonight (4-2) & Wednesday (5-3).
Phillies, Class of the NL
September 20th, 2010
11:13 am
the braves are walking into an ambush tonight.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:13 am
I’ll be happy to break it down with you. With your rotation set up the way it is, and the lineup back to being what everyone expected, the Braves are in big trouble as far as the division is concerned. If we were tied or even a game back, I might feel differently. But having to make up 3 games against that kind of team over 12 games is almost impossible. It will take a monumental task to catch Philly, one that I’m not expected to achieve, but I’m certainly hopeful to be surprised. That said, I’m glad we have the wild card to fall back on and I expect to see the Phillies in the NLCS when we both start 0-0 in the series.
Now, wasn’t that analysis much better than “The Phillies will crush and demoralize you, starting tonight?” Come on, I’d expect that out of a serious, paid journalist like John Kruk.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:15 am
JJ — If the Braves go 9-3, yes the Rockies would have to go 13-0 to tie them. If the Braves go 8-4, the Rockies would have to go 12-1 to tie them, which I think the Rockies are capable of doing. That’s why I said 9-3 to make it. That’s my point, which I guess was lost amid all of the numbers. Sorry about that. Maybe the bigger question is, with the Braves having six games against the Phillies, what’s a realistic record for them in the last 12? If they split the six games (which is the most realistic), they would need to go 5-1 in the other six to go 8-4. Could happen.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:16 am
Braves73, thank you so much for coming to my level, I appreciate that.
You seem to think that a 7-5 record in april, may, and june has something, anything to do with what is going to go down in these 2 series. I feel sorry for you and your simple brain.
This is a different Phillies team than what you faced earlier in the year, and this is September, not June. Sorry buddy, you are one of those guys that needs to be beat over the head with a 4X4 before you understand something. Lucky for you, the series starts in about 8 hours, so you will be shown the light soon enough.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:18 am
Jeff – I think the Braves split with Philly (lose 2 of 3 this week and then win 2 of 3 back home, although if Philly has clinched the division by then and starts resting regulars, then a home sweep is possible.) Then I fully expect to win 2 of 3 in the other 2 series. That would put us at 7-5 over the final 12, and leave Colorado or the Padres needing to pull off torrid stretches just to pull even with Atlanta and force an extra regular season game. In short, I think 7-5 gets it done.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:18 am
JJ, you are much more logical than your buddy, Braves73. I agree with everything you say. And if we do match up in the NLCS, that would be great. I will be supremely confident that I root for the superior team, and will look forward to a 3rd straight World Series.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:20 am
Braves73, see what I mean? Even when a guy comes over and claims he’s ready to talk baseball, he just can’t get a sentence from his brain to his keyboard without throwing insults at you.
What a miserable life.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:20 am
Here’s a real simple point. If both teams play to their potential, then the Phillies win, because the Phillies are better. The braves would need to play above their potential and the Phillies play below theirs for the braves to win this series.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:21 am
JJ — And now we find out. Honestly, the drop off of Braves’ starting pitching is what scares me most. Lowe coming back strong certainly helps a lot but it’s stunning how much staff production has dropped off.
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:21 am
JJ, did I say something untrue or overtly mean to Braves73? His comments reek of stupidity, how should I respond to them?
Braves73
September 20th, 2010
11:23 am
Don Carmen – Thanks for providing me the education that I need in order for me to better understand my team’s chances against your unbeatable Phillies. Wow, I’m so much smarter and now I can finally accomplish something with my life. Me thinks your rose colored glasses are allowing you to make excuses for your team’s poor play in those months.
Hey buddy, when your unbeatable Phils lose tonight, you can take that 4×4 and shove, well…you’re smart.
JJ
September 20th, 2010
11:24 am
I agree Jeff. Minor isn’t instilling much confidence lately (which is to be expected given his youth), and Jurrjens has been awful by his own standards.
I think we’re going to face a different Florida team from the last time we played them – they essentially threw in the towel right about the time we left town (and conveniently right when Philly was coming in.) They are basically throwing a prospect on the hill every night.
The Washington series is going to be the key in my opinion. There is no excuse for losing a series to them, but we find a way to do it more often than not.
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LIvinInAL
September 20th, 2010
11:35 am
I don’t think the Rockies can mantain the pace for the remainder of the season.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:43 am
Phillies fans are conveniently forgetting that it was what, about 5 or 6 weeks ago, they couldn’t score but one run in about 5 games? Hope that doesn’t happen again, huh?
I think the Braves are in the Phillies’ heads a little, beating them 5 of 6.
Man, the pitchers we face this series are 10-0 in Sept. The law of averages have got to catch up.
chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:44 am
The Rocks are not our problem because we cannot effect their outcome. We do not play them. On the other hand, we play the Follies.You will get ulcers worrying about things you cannot control. Chop!Chop!
Don Carmen
September 20th, 2010
11:47 am
The Phillies have rode hot septembers to the world series the last two years and 2010 is looking very similar – the braves just aren’t as good as the Phillies.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:48 am
Dont put the cart before the horse, gents. One game at a time, the Braves will win by a run tonight (2-1) in a pitcher’s duel,Chop!Chop!
Farnsworthy
September 20th, 2010
11:48 am
Jeff: First-the Braves bullpen right now is awesome! Losing the Pittsburgh and Nats series really hurt, as your analysis highlights, and thus the Braves are in this position; which means the NL East title is the Fills to lose. The Fills are just stepping on everyones’ throat. I think 8-4 will do it for the wild card but to have a chance at the NL East, they probably need to win all of the rest of their games-which is very, very, unlikely-so I have resigned myself to the Braves hopefully winning the wild card. If D. Lee and Jason can continue to step it up, the Braves should be in the playoffs.
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:49 am
Jeff, sometimes a matchup against a great pitcher brings out the best. Remember KK last year? I do wish Bobby woulda let Huddy lead off tonight. Extra day of rest and he’d probably been hard to handle.
Maybe Bobby is insinuating he doesn’t need the Braves 1,2,3, starters to beat the Phillies?
I do think that Jair needs a start off for his arm’s sake, if not his knee.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:49 am
History is History. Braves will have a September to remember this year. Chop! Chop!
steve brown
September 20th, 2010
11:52 am
Your 12-1 Rocky prediction-can’t believe we all bit on your ridiculous bait!!
WonderDawg
September 20th, 2010
11:53 am
” the braves just aren’t as good as the Phillies.”
**************************
Wow! Ya think? $83M payroll compared to, what is it now, $150M? And we’re (the Braves) not “as good?”
Hot dang, ESPN needs you, Don Carmen, for such analysis!
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:53 am
The Rockies nor the Giants will get in! The Follies will be the wild card and the Padres win their divisin. Braves and Follies will play each other again in the NLCS, Chop! Chop!
John Calipari
September 20th, 2010
11:54 am
Wanted: Students who can’t pass high school but can play basketball like Dr. J. Cash payments and other gifts are available.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:56 am
Steve (and others): Let’s just hold on there, mister. I never “predicted” Colorado would go 12-1. What I said was, given, what they’ve done down the stretch in recent years — and in fact what they’re doing now — they’re capable of it. Geez, talk about a spark turning into a raging inferno.
Chief Knockahoma X
September 20th, 2010
11:56 am
Next week about this time you critics will be back on the Braves bandwagon. Braves win. Braves win.
Jeff Schultz
September 20th, 2010
11:58 am
JJ — On target. As you know Braves have had issues with Nationals (and Marlins) in past.