Predicting Georgia Tech’s season: Fast start, tough finish
Demaryius Thomas, Jonathan Dwyer and Morgan Burnett helped lead Georgia Tech to the ACC championship, but they're all in the NFL now. (Johnny Crawford/AJC)
Here’s another sneak peek at a column that will appear in print in this Sunday’s special AJC College Football Section. The 34-page section will preview Georgia State, Georgia Tech and UGA seasons, the SEC and ACC, top games, Heisman candidates and more. Today, we look at Georgia Tech’s schedule, predicting the Yellow Jackets’ season, game by game. Previously posted: Mark Richt feels Georgia is poised for a bounce-back season.
Paul Johnson has won more games in his first two seasons than any Georgia Tech coach in history. It’s just the ending that he’s having trouble with. Despite going 20-7 with an ACC title, Johnson’s Yellow Jackets have been thumped in consecutive bowl games by LSU (38-3 in the Chick-fil-A) and Iowa (24-14 in the Orange).
Endings also could be the issue this season. With the way the schedule lays out, it’s conceivable the Jackets will win their first eight games before hitting a wall (at Virginia Tech, Miami and at Georgia among the last four opponents). The other question: Will losing four top players — Demaryius Thomas, Jonathan Dwyer, Derrick Morgan, Morgan Burnett — to the NFL have a significant impact?
Here we go . . .
Sept. 4, South Carolina State: Smaller programs schedule these games to give their players the “experience” of playing a BCS conference school. Wonder how often the trip (and the money) actually seemed worth it. South Carolina State is 20-5 in the last two seasons but was slammed by Clemson, 54-0, in 2008 and South Carolina, 38-14, last season. This won’t be any different. Prediction: Jackets win.
Sept. 11, at Kansas: The Jackets defeated Kansas in the 1947 Orange Bowl. There shouldn’t be much of a hangover. This match-up looked more daunting years ago when the Jayhawks went 12-1 in 2007, but they slid to 5-7 last year, leading to the exit of the combustible Mark Mangino (also accused of verbal abuse of players). New coach Turner Gill will do a nice job. But he might’ve best summed things up when asked who the fastest guy was during spring practice: “Me.” Prediction: Jackets win.
Sept. 18, at North Carolina: Coach Butch Davis annually has one of the nation’s top defensive teams again but that hasn’t done much for the bottom line. He’s 11-13 in the three ACC seasons. Optimism is high in Chapel Hill, but another anemic offense could leave the Heels in the Meineke Car Care Bowl again. They just can’t score enough to beat the Jackets. Prediction: Jackets win.
Sept. 25, North Carolina State: Tom O’Brien has done worst than Davis in his three seasons (16-21, 9-15). The difference: He has beaten UNC three straight seasons. That will buy you some love (and time) in Raleigh. Besides, he inherited a kind of a mess from Chuck Amato. It says here the Wolfpack will be better than some people think this season, but they’re too weak up front defensively to stop Tech. Prediction: Jackets win.
Oct 2, at Wake Forest: It took a gutsy call in overtime – a one-yard run by quarterback Joshua Nesbitt on fourth down, which set up a touchdown run – for Tech to escape with a win over Wake last season. But as good a coach as Jim Grobe is, the Demon Deacons’ roster is devoid of experience and talent. Their win totals the last four seasons: 11-9-8-5. It won’t take overtime this season. Prediction: Jackets win.
Oct. 9, Virginia: There’s an upside for Al Groh to getting fired at Virginia. OK, so he went 5-11 in the ACC in his last two seasons, and recruiting dropped off a cliff. But now he gets to punch Virginia in the nose from the other sideline. The Cavaliers are bad, really bad. They’ll likely finish behind Duke in the Coastal Division. New coach Mike London won at the FCS level (Richmond), but he has little to work with now. Prediction: Jackets win.
Oct. 16, Middle Tennessee State: This is what Paul Johnson doesn’t want to do before the Middle Tennessee State game: Phone Ralph Friedgen for advice. Maryland has lost to the Blue Raiders the last two seasons. MTSU has a nice program for the Sun Belt. But if the Jackets struggle here, forget about the difficult final stretch because it won’t matter. This needs to be a tuneup game. Prediction: Jackets win.
Oct. 23, at Clemson: The Jackets won two meetings last season (regular season and ACC title game) by a total of eight points. Nonetheless, coach Dabo Swinney’s contract was bumped up from $800,000 to $1.8 million. The extra million should ease the pain of losing C.J. Spiller to the NFL but it won’t help the team. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers take a step back, although having quarterback Kyle Parker back (after he declined to sign a baseball contract with Colorado) helps. This likely will be a pivotal game for both teams in the ACC. Prediction: Jackets win.
Nov. 4, at Virginia Tech: The Hokies aren’t imploding. But they went 27-5 (.844) in their first four ACC seasons and 11-5 (.687) in the last two, so clearly the conference has caught up to them. Consecutive losses to Tech and North Carolina (at home) were telling. But this season they get the Jackets in Blacksburg and following a bye week following the Duke game, and an offense led by quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running backs Ryan Williams and Darren Evans (out last year with a torn ACL) should be potent. Prediction: Jackets lose.
Nov. 13, Miami: The Hurricanes looked like a BCS bowl team at times last season (wins over Oklahoma and Georgia Tech) but a young team looking for an identity at others (losses to North Carolina and Clemson and a 31-7 blowout to Virginia Tech). But Miami, led by QB Jacory Harris and a solid and aggressive defense, is solid, even if coach Randy Shannon inexplicably hasn’t completely won over the fan base. This could be your ACC champion. Prediction: Jackets lose.
Nov. 20, Duke: Don’t take this as a suggestion Duke is going to the ACC title game, but coach David Cutcliffe has won almost as many games in the last two seasons (nine) than the Duke program had won in the previous eight (10). With touted sophomore quarterback Sean Renfree, the Blue Devils will be just good enough to scare you. But no – no upset here. Prediction: Jackets win.
Nov. 27, at Georgia: Paul Johnson pulled off an upset “Between the Hedges” in year one and then, at 10-1, laid an egg at home against the 6-5 Bulldogs last season. So predictions seem futile. But here goes: The game goes to the home team. Dogs’ defense improves enough under Todd Grantham to slow the option and Georgia wins a low-scoring game. Prediction: Jackets lose.
♦
Previous posts:
♦ Contest unveiled: Here’s your chance to ‘Sack Schultz’: Just pick the winners
♦ Richt believes Georgia is poised for a bounce-back season
♦
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178 comments Add your comment
Reality
August 27th, 2010
8:03 pm
UGAg fans need to be more concerned winning their own little division before they enter on this blog to ‘woof’ about GA Tech! They need to be more concerned with finding some RB to replace their jail bird ‘hit and run’ guy. They need to be VERY worried about how Richt seems to continue to recruit and support the thug mentality of the team.
Why do they waste their time here? Jealously????
Reality
August 27th, 2010
8:04 pm
The only game I think that GA Tech might lose is the one in Blacksburg. We win the others.
Since VA Tech is in our division, it will be up to VA Tech to lose two other games. If that happens, GA Tech goes to the ACC title game again.
Bank it.
Going to be fun
August 27th, 2010
8:15 pm
Dogs will lose to the jackets…reason improved Jackets defense and continued consistency on offense. For the first time in a long time GT is deep, still underrated- hallelujah to that – great motivation. Go Jackets!
Cuttysark
August 27th, 2010
8:30 pm
Can’t wait for the season to start to see how accurate these wins and losses are for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson and Al Groh will be ready for the challenge and I see another successful season on the Flats. For more Georgia Tech Football articles go to http://isportsweb.com
Crystal Ball
August 27th, 2010
8:51 pm
Tech wins by forfeit because Dogs can’t bail enough players out of jail to field a team.
Flak "Jacket"
August 27th, 2010
8:59 pm
You have to love the way the techies boast of minor arrests in Athens and how “Thugish” our players are. If you think for a moment Atlanta PD cares about the kind of violations UGA players are committing or have the time to be concerned about Tech players being arrested for like incidents, you are only fooling your own kind. They would only love to have things that easy…..Remember, almost game time in the ATL. Wear your “flak Jackets”
Coolest in the Clutch
August 27th, 2010
9:11 pm
`
————-
NESBITT
…..for…..
HEISMAN
————-
.
Delbert D.
August 27th, 2010
9:20 pm
“You have to love the way the techies boast of minor arrests in Athens and how “Thugish” our players are.”
Why?
Delbert D.
August 27th, 2010
9:21 pm
Write in the first person if you want to say something.
Flak "Jacket"
August 27th, 2010
9:50 pm
Will try to keep it simple for you in the future.
alcoholic
August 27th, 2010
10:01 pm
cant wait to hear techies crying to get rid of chan gailey jr. after this year. Eat s@#t nerds!!!
Butts Wagner
August 27th, 2010
10:54 pm
This is a very reasonable prediction. I see the VT, UM, Uga, Climpson, and UNC games as all being toss ups. And maybe you throw either the NC State or Kansas game into the toss up pile as well. That’s 6 definite wins, with 6 toss ups, with the definition of toss up being a 50% chance, and that’s a 9-3 season. I don’t think GT is going worse than 8-4. And I want to say the ceiling is 12-0, but 10-2 is a more realistic ceiling. For GT, it comes down to line play. And the 5 big games are the teams that have at least one side of the ball that can dominate at the line. We saw Uga destroy GT’s defense last year. We saw UM destroy GT on both sides last year. Climpson was dominant at times last year. VT is VT, they will provide a tough game, no matter what the names on the jerseys are. And we all know about the hype surrounding UNC’s defense. If I were a betting man, I’d go 9-3 for GT(I think that’s the over).
????????
August 27th, 2010
10:56 pm
I hope tech is undefeated when they come to athens but I also hope I win the lottery. Odds are about the same, lost to much talent in draft and if Nesbitt gets hurt tech is DONE. Ga. needs CMR to have his best year coaching and we could win 10 games but it will be a challenge. I pull for tech to do good just not against Ga.
Ted Striker
August 27th, 2010
11:05 pm
Nice column.
AFDawg
August 27th, 2010
11:15 pm
Anyone who doesn’t think Georgia State has the potential to be relevant in the next five to ten years doesn’t is goingto be very surprised. PJ had better get them on the schedule now, because certainly won’t want to play teh Panthers five years from now. Georgia Southern has been begging Tech for a game to help them out financially — Tech is too scared to play them. GSU has been very appreciative of UGA putting them on the schedule every four years — some of those games were tough. I have to admit I envy Tech’s cupcake schedule. If only UGA played in the ACC or Big 10. In the last decade we have only one loss to both of those conferences, and that was the fluke against Tech when we started fumbling kick-offs and trying to push running backs out of bounds — and that’s playing against the likes of GA Tech, Clemson, FSU, VT, Mich ST, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State. The ACC is irrelevant as a conference these days.
Butts Wagner
August 27th, 2010
11:26 pm
they flat out didn’t want to play in the cold in the Citrus Bowl.
As someone who was born and raised in Orlando, went to college in Atlanta, and now live in the Northeast, Orlando is about as pleasant as it gets in late Dec. Atlanta, which I now realize is not cold at all, is much colder than Orlando. As an ACC fan, let’s hope Miami lost because of the time off. As a GT fan, I hope it was because of the cold.
DOG DOO DOO
August 28th, 2010
12:41 am
ga state, ga southern, ugay can all go to he!! or shreveport, same difference..who cares..just like the gooberdogs, walmartscooterdog, hotdogdog, burgerdog, milledgevillephildog, idrownedindestindog, drunkyardog, drunkanddrivingdog, trailertrashdog, isleptwithmysisterdog, inbreddog, iblanksheepdog, dozendonuteatingdog, 7thgradeducationdog, etc,…GET A BLANKING LIFE hit and run morons
GT BABY
August 28th, 2010
1:52 am
chuckster- clemson has a deeper roster? they lost spiller and ford, you dumb a$$!
Yellow
August 28th, 2010
7:06 am
http://wrecklessramblins.blogspot.com/
Run, ealey, Run
August 28th, 2010
7:53 am
glory glory, along with his dumb dog fans, suck. Yeah, your boys run this state with stupidity and your what if attitude. Say what you will, but the bottom line is you, et al, suck. Have a Blessed day.
Chan Gailey Strikes again
August 28th, 2010
8:24 am
Don’t be talking about OUR cheerleaders! If you talk about one of them, you’re talking about our entire team. Don’t make me come off this field and stick your face in the mud K boy.
Chan Gailey Strikes again
August 28th, 2010
8:27 am
Doo Doo Doo… Do that again, that was funny!
Navigator
August 28th, 2010
8:36 am
Any time you pick the second half before it’s played is throwing the dice. Injuries can drag a team to a mediocre record, but the other side is emerging talent that makes a team better than expected. That’s why we play the games.
dawgfan
August 28th, 2010
9:11 am
It’ll be same ole same ole. They’ll rack up a bunch of wins against ACC creampuffs. The Clemson win will probably be their “big” win that they hang their hats on. They’ll get run out of town by either VT or Miami, or both. They’ll “almost” beat Georgia and then lose yet another bowl game. A classic Georgia Tech football season.
I say 9-4. Maybe 10-3 if the ACC sucks as bad as it usually does.
YAWN.
Not Disappointed
August 28th, 2010
9:35 am
The gamee depend upon Nesbit. I believe we have a shot to win every game, but you have to play them one at a time. The young QB at UGA hasn’t played a game. We shall see.
Man, I’m ready for some “College Football!”
calvin
August 28th, 2010
10:00 am
A Chan Gailey team beat Virgin Tech in Blacksburg. A
Chan Gailey team beat a highly ranked Miami in Florida.
As for Georgia, we won’t have ‘Bay Bay’ to drop the pass,
and Johnson doesn’t like to be humiliated. So much for
Schultz’s hopes, I mean, predictions.
GT hasn't won a bowl game since 2005 (Champ sports Bowl)
August 28th, 2010
10:17 am
Wow, it is official tech fans are more delusional than uga fans. You won the ACC once in a down year for the conference and you think that you are NC bound! HAHAHAHHA! What a joke!
dawgfan
August 28th, 2010
10:29 am
calvin, will you still have that laughably undersized D-line for our O-line to push around like a blocking sled?
Doug the Jacket
August 28th, 2010
10:44 am
TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
Greg
August 28th, 2010
11:48 am
That’s really pretty much a cupcake schedule, especially with UNC having the problems they’re having. Really only VA Tech could be considered a possible top ten caliber team; and we don’t know for sure about them.
Abdullah the Bitcher
August 28th, 2010
11:50 am
Jeff is correct on almost all counts. Tech will beat Miami at home.
Once a decade!!!
August 28th, 2010
12:40 pm
Nerds win once a decade and think they are back in this thing….We still own you!!!
WE ALWAYS WILL RUN THIS STATE!!!!!!!!!
UGA OWNS TECH!!!
Twilb Dawg ‘01
Ash
August 28th, 2010
1:29 pm
Tech’s season will hinge on the same thing it did last year. Defense. I have confidence the offense will improve, but if we can’t stop the opposing team a least once in awhile we are not going to go anywhere fast.
It’s going to be a good year…see you at Bobby Dodd!
steve millar
August 28th, 2010
1:32 pm
Until johnson sees the light and adds a genuine passing element to the office I think every season will go much the same with a strong start and a weak finish. I think his system works largely because teams only have a week to prepare for it but as time goes by there will be more film for the defensive coordinators to dissect. And Bowl games will by definition be problematic because Tech will always be playing a quality oppontent with ample time to prepare. I love my jackets but I don’t see the triple option alone continuing to deliver wins over the long haul.
MD
August 28th, 2010
1:51 pm
Steve–
Think about your post for a second. How long has Johnson been coaching? Do you think there is any lack whatsoever of film? There is decades of film on this type of offense.
The preparation excuse is about the 7th or 8th excuse on why the T.O “will not work”, despite the fact it has already worked many, many times. The bowl game excuse that other morons are using is even sillier, when did Tech last win a game under their anemic pro-set? 2005?
Tech could have ran a UF style shotgun offense but their OL did not match up with at all with LSU or Iowa’s. If you get dominated on the LOS, any offense will sputter.
T-MAN
August 28th, 2010
2:04 pm
Jeff…the jackets will finish with wins over Miami and Ga…may lose to Va tech at home..the defense will be better and I don’t see a drop off with the offense,they’ve got a stable of running backs and the offense line will be better…I’m just saying this could be a very special year for my beloved Yellow jackets…….MY PROJECTIONS 12-1 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP BABY….TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
Robert
August 28th, 2010
3:09 pm
Not surprising to see you pick Tech to lose all of the toss-up games. They won’t. For sure they won’t lose to UGA, because their fans and players have pissed off Paul.
Los Angeles
August 28th, 2010
3:31 pm
.
————————————
Joshua Nesbitt for Heisman
————————————
.
dawgfan
August 28th, 2010
3:36 pm
Why have we pizzed off Paul? I thought he had bigger fish to fry than UGA? And what have we done since 1980? Why should Georgia Tech measure themselves by UGA? I have no idea why we would have pizzed off Paul. We’re nothing. Its all about ACC Championships against 8-5 Clemson and overtime victories over Wake Forest for that man.
Now, lets leave la la land and get back to reality. I’m pretty sure your punk azz players might have pizzed some folks off tearing up our hedges in ‘08. Good luck trying to do it again.
'Sack Schultz!' . . . . .starts NOW!
August 28th, 2010
3:55 pm
Georgia Tech and Virginia Polytechnic will both be 8-0 when they meet November 4th.
The Hokies should be ranked pretty high after beating Boise State.
The Jackets will beat Beamer again and be 9-0.
Miami will lose in Atlanta and UGA will lose in Athens to GT.
Looks like a great 12-0 regular season for Georgia Tech
TheTiger
August 28th, 2010
4:08 pm
Get a clue, Jeff. Your precious Paul Johnson is a master of the triple option offense, but he’s a terrible recruiter. Look at how GT’s recruiting classes have tanked since he took over. He has won the first two years using talented 4-star players like Nesbitt, Dwyer, and Morgan. Look at their current class. Not a single 4-star on it.
Paul Johnson is a flash in the pan just like Fat Friedgen was at Maryland. It’s not Clemson who will take a step back this year, it’s GT. It’s all downhill from here, bee fans.
YellowFellow
August 28th, 2010
4:13 pm
We are not going to lose to the Tar Heels? Excellent….we will have one heckuva Tickle Pile after that thrilling win over the Rams. Cum if you can.
THWGT
August 28th, 2010
4:53 pm
What is laughable is that gtu fans actually think they will will 9 games. LOL
THWGT!!!!!!!!
HATE RED AND BLACK!
August 28th, 2010
7:06 pm
LET’S GO GATORS!
Ironic
August 28th, 2010
8:08 pm
I read the article with interest, then saw all the comments. I am a UGA Alumnus but actually pull for Tech when not playing the Dawgs. It is pointless for Tech fans to comment on Dawgs trolling this article as the reverse happens all the time. I personally respect Tech and its academic standards, but UGA is no slouch. I personally have a biochemistry degree from UGA and a graduate degree and am very successful. I make more than any engineer I know. I do realize we have many fans that are not Alumni, but it is the state school. It is wrong to criticize those fans for liking UGA. Have you ever been to a Florida game?? There fan base is very similar to ours. Plenty of alumni, but plenty of “country folk” as well. Also, I know plenty of people who are Tech fans and never attended one class at Tech. All this is silliness. I say go Tech until they play my Dawgs. Good school, good people, just like UGA. Best of luck this season.
CrackDaddy
August 28th, 2010
8:20 pm
This is the guy who Tech lost to UNC: Rushed for 3 td’s in 1st half of Friday game. Romar Morris had plenty to smile about after accounting for nearly 300 yards of total offense against East Rowan. And he did it the way the UNC coaches envision him doing it at the next level with a couple of touchdown catches and several long runs.
ATL Dawg
August 28th, 2010
9:33 pm
Tim Tebow’s Tears please tell me where I can wager with you. You stated that GTech will not lose to UGA – “Bank On It”. That is exactly what I would like to do is go to the bank with the money I would take from you. Buy a vowel and get a clue!
DAWGS#1
August 29th, 2010
2:57 am
Why do tech fans think they can justify there words when they say tech will beat GEORGIA but GEORGIA fans are “dumb” and “ignorant” if we try to justify our words when we say we will beat florida but anyways I’m staying away from north avenue to many “THUGS” are sitting and waiting to mug and rob me. GO DAWGS!!!
UGA Crumbles
August 29th, 2010
7:17 am
The only possible losses for GT this year are VT and Miami. They are the only teams GT plays which have top 10 potential. Gt is looking at a 10-2 season at worse with either an ACC championship or a BCS at-large bid.
No matter What
August 29th, 2010
8:13 am
Tek couldn’t beat the worst UGA team in a decade with two weeks to prepare and playing at home. The loss in Athens to UGAin November will be #4 after losses to VT, Clemson and Miami.