Rankings prove Georgia has lost benefit of doubt
Georgia's Mark Richt doesn't have to wonder what it's going to take to pass Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson: win. (AJC photo)
(Last update: 2:10 p.m.)
In two weeks, this becomes less about perception than reality.
Games start, the season unfolds, myths get busted, the guy on the bar stool who never said a word before suddenly says I told you so, a Big 12 coach locks a player in the broom closet and eventually we get to January and scream about the BCS. It’s college football’s circle of life.
But for now, it is about perceptions, and this much has become clear: Pollsters believe Georgia Tech has passed Georgia on the football field.
This is what consecutive years of failed expectations and a five-loss season will do to a program.
When last season ended in Shreveport, the Bulldogs were not ranked in the final Associated Press poll for the first time since 1996. That also left them behind the Jackets (13th) for the first time since 2000.
When this season begins, Georgia will trail Tech in the preseason polls for the first time since 2001, which is the year Mark Richt was hired. The AP’s preseason rankings were released Saturday. They’re similar to the coaches’ poll that came out two weeks ago, which had Tech ranked 17th and Georgia 21st. The gap in the AP poll is a bit wider: The Jackets are 16th and the Dogs are No. 23.
It’s worth nothing that the AP is no longer part of the BCS formula, having pulled out after the 2004 season because of the illogical selection process, to say nothing of the fact orchestrating a No. 1 vs. No. 2 game and rendering all other bowls relatively insignificant is just a bad idea. But the AP still is the most watched preseason and in-season poll, and it fuels what many previously believed:
Georgia has lost the benefit of the doubt.
This bit of reality won’t go over well in Athens. Richt inherited a program that hadn’t won an SEC championship since 1982. He proceeded to win two in his first five seasons. Then Georgia finished strong in 2007 to end the year at No. 2. Such cachet tends to carry over in polls from year to year.
But a preseason No. 1 ranking in 2008 turned out to be only a gateway to lopsided losses to Alabama and Florida, and a home upset by Georgia Tech (in coach Paul Johnson’s first season). Then came last year’s tumble to 8-5. Richt began to feel some heat for really the first time in his tenure. The Dogs now are at a prove-it stage. At Tech, most assume the arrow is pointed up. In Georgia, few are assuming anything.
The Jackets are 20-7 in Johnson’s first two seasons and went 11-3 with an ACC championship last season. They lost four stars (Demaryius Thomas, Jonathan Dwyer, Derrick Morgan, Morgan Burnett) to the NFL draft. But perceptions remain that they’re better than Georgia. Why?
“We won more games than they did last year,” Johnson logically concluded Saturday morning, when asked about the recent coaches’ poll.
Asked if he cared about perceptions, he gave the expected response: “Not really. I just worry about what I perceive and what actually happens. I’m more worried about what happens at the end of the year. Being ranked before somebody at the beginning might be nice, but I’d rather be ranked in front of them at the end.”
Since the non-ranking in 2001, the Dogs have ranked No. 8, 11, 3, 13, 15, 13, 1 and 13 in the preseason under Richt. At 23, they’re now closer to the “others receiving votes” category with Connecticut, Temple and Middle Tennessee State.
“I am thankful we are ranked,” Richt said Saturday when asked about the AP poll. He added, “I hope we play well enough to move up. That’s the plan.”
That’s the way to play this. Richt raised the expectation level at Georgia. This shows how missteps in consecutive seasons can significantly alter public opinion. Georgia finished out of the rankings four consecutive seasons (1993-96), but when it finished 10th in 1997, the Dogs suddenly were back in the preseason rankings in 1998 (19th) for the first time in five years.
It figured there would be a hangover after last season. The preseason rankings might be cause for debate, but that’s what rankings are all about. There’s no reason for Georgia to scream. In two weeks, the games start, and the Dogs will have a chance to change perceptions.
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688 comments Add your comment
stony
August 21st, 2010
5:50 pm
To all those commenting that GT would not win as many games if they played UGA’s schedule…the ACC Coastal and the SEC West have been named the two toughest divisions in college football for 2010. No mention of the SEC East.
navman57
August 21st, 2010
5:55 pm
Some on here wanting to get rid of Coach Richt. And that is ridiculous. Other than the MNC he has a better record than Coach Dooley had in less time. So what do some of you suggest doing just go out to the ole Head Coach tree and pluck one of bring him home ? A high caliber coach to head a program the size and anticipations of UGA is hard to find. And if you got a new head coach how long do you give him to produce ? Coach Richt has made the right hires now to win, recruiting has picked up with the Dream Team concept. Look at the quality recruits we have picked up this year. Come on people we have a brand new defensive scheme and a freshman QB. I still think we will do better even with that this year. And Ray Goff was a nice guy but NO head coach. Must be a bunch of young guys here. I can remember when we would have been glad for 8-4 under Goff. It can be worse MUCH worse !! Give Richt this year and 2011 and we will return to our winning ways. Give me a class guy like Coach Richt over urbie meyer and day !! Any weather Dawg fan here !!
Z. Itchy
August 21st, 2010
5:57 pm
Yeah, whatever, o great swami.
Boise Dawg
August 21st, 2010
6:04 pm
Jeff this is sort of rehashing the same articles that you and Mark were writing last year… how great Tech is and the sky is falling in Athens…got anything new? I’d say the only thing that matters between Tech and Georgia is who one the last game and last I checked that was Georgia.
One preseason poll does not make a trend can…. preseason polls are fun for the fans, but in the end mean absoultely nothing (see Georgia 2008 and Ole Miss 2009). I’d say both Tech and Georgia are getting the benefit of the doubt. Some have argued that Georgia shouldn’t even be ranked given how last season went and all the question marks coming into this season. Tech is getting the ranking because they won the ACC last year… had they acutally won their bowl game they would likely be ranked even higher preseason.
stony
August 21st, 2010
6:04 pm
And just for clarification, I used to have a great deal of respect for UGA. The legal problems, lack of any apparent morals, and the assinine comments of the majority of the “dawg” fans on these blogs have put an end to any respect I previously held for UGA. Should the same problems beset GT to the same degree as in Athens, I would lose respect for GT as well; however, so far the problems at GT have been minimal compared to most, if not all other major college programs.
navman57
August 21st, 2010
6:09 pm
Coach Richt better record than Coach Dooley in less time with exception of MNC. He now has the right coaching staff in place, Recruiting is getting back on track with the Dream Team concept that’s already showing in the recruits we’ve picked up. 2010 we will be better. 2011 is when the pieces come together and we are back to our winning ways. Those of you calling for Coach Richt’s head must be young and don’t remember Coach Goff. No fair weather Dawg fan here !! Coach Richt is a class coach and class man. I’m proud he’s at UGA.
76-Dawg
August 21st, 2010
6:10 pm
The South Carolina game will tell a lot about how good UGA will be in 2010. Lose to South Carolina and UGA will end up 8 and 4. Beat South Carolina and UGA, ends up 10 and 2 or better..
Dawg '94
August 21st, 2010
6:11 pm
The Nerds on the Flats are ranked higher because the ACC is the SEC’s junior varsity!! The Dawgs will whip Tech & make it 10 out of the last 11. Tech has only beat Georgia 12 times since 1964. The LOVE fest with FAT BACK Johnson will be over in a couple of years. GO DAWGS!!!
navman57
August 21st, 2010
6:13 pm
Coach Richt is not the AD at UGA. He is also not a police officer, or a prison warden, he’s a head coach. A warning to the righteous GT fans your comments about UGA won’t get out of your mouth good when one of your players might up and pull a stupid stunt. Better watch the judgement passing could come back to haunt you.
Boise Dawg
August 21st, 2010
6:16 pm
Is Tech really getting the benefit of the doubt? Preseason is mostly based on how you finished last year with a slight emphasis on returning starters. Tech finished the season ranked 13th and are ranked 17th preseason. Georiga finished the season NR and is ranked 21. You tell me again who is getting the benefit of the doubt? Cincinnati is the only team to play in a BCS bowl game last year that is ranked below Tech and they lost their coach. Every other defending BCS conference champion is ranked higher. When you actually look at the numbers it is Tech the pollsters don’t have as much respect for.
JacketFan
August 21st, 2010
6:20 pm
JacketFan
August 21st, 2010
6:18 pm
Yeah, saw this coming the moment I saw the headline.
Tech returns 18 starters, including a senior QB with over 1,000 yards rushing and passing, a deep RB corps, and a new def coordinator. If our defense is just 10 pts/game better than last year, we’re looking at at least a top-15 finish if not better … so a similar season to last year.
The pups are returning two strong RBs, a more experienced O-Line and too have a new def. coordinator. They also have AJ Green, who is surely a top draft pick this coming year. The main difference I see between the two is at QB. I’d say Georgia’s ranking is fair, I would have them at around 20.
My hope is both teams meet in November with no more than one-loss each – Tech’s coming from either VT or Miami and UGA’s coming from SC (that’s gonna be a tough early game) or FLA (though, I think y’all have the best chance of betting them since 2008). And, as one poster already pointed out, as CPJ game, it’s where you end up that counts. See you kids in November.
JacketFan
August 21st, 2010
6:22 pm
*beating
fitzgerald
August 21st, 2010
6:22 pm
I am really hacked off with the pre-season college football polls this year. Nowhere do I see my 1974 flag football team listed. What the heck are these pollsters drinking? Nevertheless, the season will be fun and wide open. It is time for some great college football.
Paddy
August 21st, 2010
6:26 pm
Big Sweat….hope you are not a Dawg fan. You are embarrassing!
Paddy
August 21st, 2010
6:28 pm
hugedawgfan…well said!!!
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
6:36 pm
Great article, Schultz!
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
6:37 pm
Don’t listen to the dawgs, they always cry when GT gets good press.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
6:39 pm
Wonder how many more underachieving seasons richt can weather?
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
6:42 pm
Coach Paul Johnson has really turned it around at Tech and the state of GA.
Paul in RDU
August 21st, 2010
6:42 pm
Some interesting comments on this blog but many people seem to have missed the point of Schultz’ article. He has said nothing about whether HE thinks GT is better than UGA.
The just released, preseason AP poll has GT ranked above UGA and JS writes a column that there is a perception that UGA has fallen back. Where’s the controversy there? Isn’t the poll all about the perception of the voters? If UGA is ranked behind GT in a preseason poll for the first time in the CMR era isn’t that a demonstration that UGA is perceived to have fallen back?
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
6:43 pm
Jeff, do you know of any other program that gets the recruits uga does and fails to deliver the way they do?
GR82BAG8R
August 21st, 2010
6:47 pm
The real question should be why is Tech ranked so high. Even if the offense continues to perform, a power running game will overwhelm Tech’s defense. LSU proved it two years ago, Georgia and Iowa proved it last year. Until Tech can stop a determined running game, they will not be able to compete with most top-20 teams.
David Granger
August 21st, 2010
6:48 pm
Preseason rankings don’t mean zippity-squat, as we SHOULD have learned a couple of years ago. Tech had a better overall season than we did last year…yes, I know we beat ‘em head-to-head…but we’ve got a few big questions that need to be answered.
Best thing to do is just not give a rat’s ass. If we win games when and where it COUNTS, then the rankings will adjust themselves.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
6:54 pm
CMR has always been perceived to be a better recruiter than coach. His success came when coaches like Gailey, Zook, and Shula were coaching his rivals. He has attempted to compensate for his inadequate coaching abilities with gimmicks like black shirts and intentional personal foul penalties.
the real Old Gold
August 21st, 2010
7:01 pm
I think you can get a copy of the 2008 Pre-Season Champion UGA SI magazine for the cost of shipping on eBay.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:01 pm
If Coach Al Groh is half as good as advertised, and with Coach Paul Johnson’s offense rolling GT should be in the hunt for national titles for years to come. The state of the program at uga was exposed when they couldn’t get anyone to coach their defense and had to settle on the LB coach from Dallas.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:03 pm
Old Gold, that must be what dawgs mean when they say they have two NCs instead of the one!
DaveDawg
August 21st, 2010
7:08 pm
Georgia has never really gotten the benefit of the doubt, well, except for 2008. Even when we were getting decent preseason rankings, teams like Oklahoma, LSU, Ohio State and others were still defaulting into top 5 preseason rankings. Of course, those programs have won a NC in recent memory, so it is what it is. Richt needs to get it done soon or move on.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:09 pm
Ugay has proven that recruiting rankings are not reliable. Florida, Alabama, LSU, USC, Texas, Ohio State, Oklahoma, FSU, and Miami have proven that they are!
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:13 pm
BTW, those teams I mentioned in my previous post are usually your top ten in recruiting. Question. Which one of them HAS NOT won a NC with all that talent? Ahahahaha!!!!
DaveDawg
August 21st, 2010
7:13 pm
But anyone who thinks Tech, UNC and other flavors of the week are better than UGA are nuts. We should get the benefit of the doubt against those lower programs.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:17 pm
GT has 4 NCs. Ugay has one fluke play to hang their hat on in over one hundred years. They are right there with South Carolina. There was a big sports write up about it.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:20 pm
Ugay is an elite program in RECRUITING. Historically, Ugay is a LOWER program. IS THIS THE YEAR Ugay? THIS TIME, IS IT REALLY GOING TO BE THE YEAR?????
DaveDawg
August 21st, 2010
7:21 pm
Agreed, we need to more with the talent we get. And therein lies the benefit of the doubt – even if Ohio State and others have a freshman QB or inexperienced D-line, pollsters know that the talent will be coached-up, hence the default top 5 preseason rankings.
If Bama can win a NC with half the in-state talent base (divided by Auburn, so actually 1/4th the talent base), the Richt needs to get it done with his top recruits. (And yes, Tech does NOT dilute UGA’s take of the top in-state talent. Says a lot – or very little – about what in-staters think about Tech football.)
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:23 pm
DaveDawg, Ugay’s flavor has turned sour. And face it, it wasn’t that good to begin with.
Felix Unger
August 21st, 2010
7:25 pm
If I were the AD at UGA I would prefer underachieving teams with fans that will accept anything than to have super-demanding fans. UGA has never had a problem with super-demanding fans.
DaveDawg
August 21st, 2010
7:26 pm
…And Tech’s half-empty stadium says a lot about what in-staters think about Tech. Get a following, then we’ll talk rivalry.
Top Dawg
August 21st, 2010
7:29 pm
No problem with the article other than the implication that GT has more to smile about than UGA. I’ll admit UGA has been stinking it up now for longer than I care to remember, but UGA’s team will still beat GT in November and will be ranked higher than GT in January.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:29 pm
At least GT gives the state some NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP respect.
GR82BAG8R
August 21st, 2010
7:30 pm
4ncs…, Tech needs to win a bowl game before they can start dreaming about a NC.
Wreckmaniac
August 21st, 2010
7:31 pm
Jeff, when is AJC going to start this years version of KNOW YOUR DAWGS ? Inquiring minds want to know.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:32 pm
GT has CPJ and CAG to smile about. Did you end the year ranked higher than GT last year? Oh that’s right, YOU WEREN’T RANKED AT ALL!
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:34 pm
GR82, Ugay just needs to win a NC, period.
Wreckmaniac
August 21st, 2010
7:35 pm
Even though voters throughout the country regard Tech as a higher caliber program than UGA, dawg fans will never let facts get in the way of their fantasy.
poopdawg
August 21st, 2010
7:39 pm
Please excuse my fuming about something not being discussed here. Has anybody noticed Boise st and TCU are ranked something like 4 and the other 6. I am afraid 1 of those 2 will go undefeated and ESPN will promote them for the BCS title game, leaving only 1 other spot available. I have already heard ESPN promoting Boise. I do not believe either worthy of getting to the title game due to strength of scheudule. I am a 16 team playoff fan myself but thats another discussion. Boise has VT and Oregon St , TCU has Oregon st. So go Beavers!
GR82BAG8R
August 21st, 2010
7:39 pm
It is interesting that even though Georgia, while playing a relatively benign schedule, plays Tech in Athens this year, Tech is ranked higher in pre-season. One would think that the home field would give Georgia the nod in relative rankings….
GR82BAG8R
August 21st, 2010
7:42 pm
Perhaps Boise State should play TCU for this years BCS title game.
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:42 pm
Dawgs, if you don’t finish higher than Gt this time, maybe you can sue the AP. You know, like you were going to sue the NCAA for not putting you in the NC game the year you couldn’t even win your half of the conference! THAT is SOOOOOO FUNNY!!!
4 ncs are better than 1
August 21st, 2010
7:47 pm
I even heard that Ugay fans want FSU’s recruitment of James Wilder “looked into.” What cry babies!!!
poopdawg
August 21st, 2010
7:49 pm
GR82BAG8R, same reason Toledo and SAN diego st should not play for the mythical national championship game.