An early look at NFC’s Super Bowl picks: Falcons are No. 2
A slimmer Michael Turner and more experienced Matt Ryan could be primed for a Super Bowl run.
If a certain quarterback from Kiln, Miss. — who remains one of the NFL’s all-time leaders in touchdowns, yards and vogueing — doesn’t play this season, the Minnesota Vikings will drop from being a Super Bowl contender to just a playoff team (maybe).
I’ll avoid typing the quarterback’s name because I understand we’re all at our limit, and have been since the Drama King’s first heart-wrenching, tearful, yes-I-really-mean-it-this-time goodbye press conference in 2008.
Loading ...But the potential ripple effect in the NFL from his retirement can’t be overstated. Here are the absolute five NFC teams that can go to the Super Bowl this season. I know this for a fact because I think even had former Falcons great Jeff Van Note convinced of my top five during our conversation at Falcons’ practice Wednesday. Either that or he was just worn down by the 217-degree temperatures or I was starting to hallucinate.
The NFC’s top five teams (assuming the diva retires).
♦ 1. GREEN BAY: It’s easy to forget Aaron Rodgers was in only his second year as a starter, yet he threw for 30 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. The Packers are also strong on defense. So what happened last season? They lost twice to the Vikings, which was the difference in them having home field in the playoffs. They had to travel to Arizona and lost a bizarre game that was closer to pinball than football — 51-45 in overtime. They won’t have to worry about Kurt Warner (five touchdowns) if they play again.
♦ 2. FALCONS: I know what you’re thinking: a little high. (The team, not me.) But no (to both). First of all, I think you can rank these five teams in almost any order. Here’s what stands out to me: The defense will be significantly improved. It will be more aggressive and get burned less often, given the additions of cornerback Dunta Robinson and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, as well as the return of defensive tackle Peria Jerry and safety William Moore from season-ending injuries. (The team’s broadcaster, Wes Durham, had a great analogy: Jerry and Moore are like redshirt freshmen.) The offense will benefit from Matt Ryan being in his third year, when young quarterbacks often take a big step up, and a more motivated running back, Michael Turner, who is in far better condition than a year ago.
♦ 3. DALLAS: Tony Romo got a lot better last year when Terrell Owens wasn’t in the huddle. Probably not a coincidence. Dez Bryant will either turn into one of the NFL’s greatest receivers or be a complete grease fire. The Cowboys have talent, but they also have weaknesses. The pass defense was surprisingly average statistically (20th overall) despite two Pro Bowl cornerbacks (Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman). I also question whether Keith Brooking can again play at the level he did a year ago. Also, something is wrong when a team this talented gets absolutely bulldozed in the second round by Minnesota (34-3). That shows a possible lack of mental toughness, an indictment of coach Wade Phillips.
♦ 4. NEW ORLEANS: It’s difficult to criticize a team that just won the Super Bowl. But it’s noteworthy that no NFC South champion ever has successfully defended its division title. As for the league title, the run through the Super Bowl and the parties that follow can wear mentally on players. The offseason is shorter. It’s difficult to recapture the same fire and chemistry. Opponents are all suddenly gunning for you. A lot of things went right for the Saints last season. They’re still very good, but logic says they’re just not going to be great again.
♦ 5. NEW YORK:The Giants won their first five games last season and then forgot how to stop anybody. They went 3-8 down the stretch, allowing 40 or more points five times. They’ll be better this season. They signed free agent safety Antrel Rolle for $37 million and added veteran safety, Deon Grant. A number of the pieces from the Super Bowl team three years ago are still in place.
So there’s my top five in the conference. What do you think? Am I overrating the Falcons or do you agree?
♦
NEXT POST: Rookie Sean Weatherspoon. If other NFL scouts considered him such a loudmouth and borderline obnoxious, why are the Falcons so high on him? I think you’ll enjoy the comments from general manager Thomas Dimitroff, Weatherspoon and teammates.
UPDATE: Here’s the link to the Weatherspoon column.
♦
Recent posts
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♦ Braves trying to keep it going with team of moving parts
♦ Favre’s retirement (really? finally?) is opening for Falcons
♦ How long can Braves keep extending Troy Glaus’s lifeline?
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119 comments Add your comment
Paul in RDU
August 5th, 2010
10:06 am
I think the Falcons are rated a little high here. Only reason for dropping the Saints below the Falcons is the “it’s hard to repeat factor”.
Jeff – I think you need to redo your order taking into account that the Diva will be playing for the Vikings. He’s already setting the stage.
http://www.sunherald.com/2010/08/04/2383248/favre-will-play-if-health-allows.html
Clay
August 5th, 2010
10:06 am
Come on Purple people, with Tavaris Jackson at QB? Ha!
Grady Jackson *Barber Shop*
August 5th, 2010
10:11 am
The Dallas Cowboys will be lucky
…………………… if they end up 9-7.
.
.
Go Falcons !
—————
archangeladidas
August 5th, 2010
10:27 am
Why not just say the falcons will go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl. BREAK UP THE BUCS!!!
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 5th, 2010
10:38 am
I’ll avoid typing the quarterback’s name because I understand we’re all at our limit, and have been since the Drama King’s first heart-wrenching, tearful, yes-I-really-mean-it-this-time goodbye press conference in 2008.
Maybe Favre isn’t the only Drama King.
drmondo
August 5th, 2010
10:45 am
It’s not a “homer poll”. Take a look on espn.com and you’ll see a few experts picking the Falcons 1 or 2 in the NFC. As a long-time fan, I’m sceptical of picking them to win it all…heck, they’ve broken my heart for more than 3 decades. This year could be different. The organization, from owner down to the waterboy is better than its ever been. The team has talent. The schedule isn’t a killer. Every superbowl team needs a little luck so if the Falcons can stay healthy they could go all the way. It would be great revenge if we won the superbowl in Dallas while the Cowgirls watch from the stands…
drmondo
August 5th, 2010
10:52 am
Has anyone heard if ATL is interested in Aaron Schobel? He would address our problems on the DL and allow Beer-man and Sidbury to learn from two great DEs.
gadawgfan0711
August 5th, 2010
11:00 am
1) Vikings
Giants
2) Falcons
3) Cowboys
4) Saints
5) Packers
6) 49ers
7) Bears
9) Panthers
10) Cardinals
Coop
August 5th, 2010
11:08 am
With our schedule and the improvement in personnel, we should easily win 10 games and could realistically win 12 or 13. Some of our toughest challenges are outside the NFC (Baltimore, Cincy). This team has a legit shot to win the South and have a first round bye. It is not at all implausible to see these guys playing the Cowboys or Green Bay for a shot a the big game. In ATL they beat either team. They’d beat Dallas on the road as well. GB in GB for the NFC crown would be too much. The Saints were a great story, but you can take 9 wins or less to the bank. They’ll be lucky to get a WC slot.
Blue Fender
August 5th, 2010
11:14 am
Preseason rankings are total crap. I think last year everyone was picking Chicago to be in the Super Bowl and the Saints were in the middle-bottom of the pack. The games still have to be played, dammit!
F-105 Thunderchief
August 5th, 2010
11:46 am
I think the Saints are No. 1, Falcons around 3-4.
KAPPELLMEISTER
August 5th, 2010
11:58 am
Jeff – FYI, assuming you did mean to insult ‘the voguish one’ quite that much, “diva” is feminine and “divo” masculine. I mean, you at least gotta admit the man is a man’s man (department of redundancy department)…
Falcon Jim
August 5th, 2010
12:04 pm
Do the Falcons have any weak areas now? We upgraded the defensive backfield and linebacker. I guess the D-line is the question, still, but maybe with Jerry back and the rookie, it will be O.K.
Sage of Bluesland
August 5th, 2010
12:06 pm
“…I also question whether Keith Brooking can again play at the level he did a year ago….”
Oh my goodness, Jeff–you actually think that our former Hometown Hero has anything to do with the success of that team??? That is ridiculous, as he’s nothing more than a rah-rah cheerleader on that team…
He was a fraud here (based on the propaganda, salary, and the lack of impact plays and real leadership)–and a joke there…well, unless you actually think the pre-game “pep” yelling means anything…or the ankle-grabs eight yards downfield…
Some things never change, I guess? (and some sheep will continue to defend the indefensible, too!)
Dr. Warren
August 5th, 2010
12:07 pm
Here’s my reasoning about Ryan potentially being just decent-to-good but not great: it seems he is overly conscious of being like Manning and giving that impression. I think the great ones just are, without the earnestness–of course they work at, but their work ethic and positive attitude don’t take center stage over their God-given, once-in-a-blue-moon talent. Ryan’s arm seemed a bit flat to me last year, and something about him, to me, lacks a killer instinct the great ones have. That’s my two-cents. And if I am right, we can forget about runs deep into the playoffs, because as much as I’d love to be wrong, the Birds aren’t strong enough defensively to win big without a real superstar at QB.
Falcon Jim
August 5th, 2010
12:07 pm
I don’t think the Falcons schedule is as lite as folks are saying.
GT BABY
August 5th, 2010
12:10 pm
Im sure the UGA fans would rank their team first if they were in the NFL…. UGA people major in optimism!
Oliver
August 5th, 2010
12:14 pm
hai odata
Oliver
August 5th, 2010
12:15 pm
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FAlcon Phil
August 5th, 2010
12:17 pm
If the falcon’s D comes through, they should win the NFC easily—no other team can match the roster’s talent. New Orleans got lucky last year and lost some key players. Mark it down: Falcons v. San Diego in the super bowl.
phoenix falcon
August 5th, 2010
12:26 pm
don’t forget about the Cards out here in the valley of the sun, the defense will be better with Joey Porter and Kerry Rhodes, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is one of the best corners in football. Dan Williams will be a monster at nose tackle, Gerald Hayes, Darnell Dockett etc….. then you go to the other side of the ball, the offensive line is better with the addition of pro bowler Alan Faneca, who allowed 0 sacks last year, that means the running game will be better, Beanie Wells should take over the starting job from Tim Hightower, Larry Fitzgerald will do his thing, Steve Breaston and Early Doucet will both move up one spot to No’s 2 and 3 receivers, Breaston took over for bolden in 2008 when bolden almost got decapitated, and went for 1,000 yards receiving. this cards team ( imo ) will be better then the team that went to the super bowl. I’m a Falcon fan 1st, but i really like this cards team, i think D. Anderson will end up being the QB of this team, Matt Leinart scares me, i just don’t trust him to make the right reads, he always seems jumpy out there, even in training camp, he’s the REAL happy feet.
willdave
August 5th, 2010
12:27 pm
Jeff, I am a lifelong, diehard Falcons fan. So being truly objective about the home team is very difficult for me.
That said, however, I really do agree with you that Atlanta is a legitimate SB contender this year. After purging the mess they inherited, Smitty and TD have added nothing but quality players since then. Now, in the third year of this new regime, the Falcons truly present one of the most talent-laden rosters in the league. I simply cannot imagine their not being in the run for a championship this season, barring an excess of debilitating injuries to key players.
I’m ready for some football! Go Falcons!
PMC
August 5th, 2010
12:28 pm
Dr Warren. You make some good points. However, when you examine guys like Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Joe Montana… They make thier living on timing, grasp of the offense and putting other players in the positions they need to succede rather than physically domninating people. Ryan doesn’t have the tools of Brett Farve or Peyton Manning but he can beat people by throwing the ball to the right place at the right time. He doesn’t have the arm strength to zip it in late like some QB’s. He has to be mentally faster at reading the defense than a Brett Farve because he doesn’t have a cannon arm. It might not be a 70 yard bomb over the defense that goes for a score, in his case they will throw a few deep balls to loosen the underneath routes but as Drew Brees has proven in the past year a 7 yard slant route can be deadly.
ChippersLoveChild
August 5th, 2010
12:48 pm
“If the falcon’s D comes through, they should win the NFC easily—no other team can match the roster’s talent. New Orleans got lucky last year and lost some key players. Mark it down: Falcons v. San Diego in the super bowl.”
Seriously? I don’t think they have that much talent on D… and I’d at least take the Saints, Packers, and Cowboys offense over theirs… Everyone talks about the vaunted Falcons Offense, but I don’t think it is even close to being on par with those other three teams.
Blade
August 5th, 2010
12:56 pm
Really…I understand you want access to the team but do you really think anyone in the whole U.S.A., thinks the Falcons will go to the Super bowl? I and everyone else would really respect you, if you just kept it real. Of course everyone has a chance but your’re putting 1 team ahead of them as having a legitimate chance of making to the super bowl. They will be happy to win 9 this year. They may get 1 more because of the soft schedule (21st).
BravesFan79
August 5th, 2010
12:59 pm
Green Bay… the best team in the NFC?? Yall need to stop smoking that sht! GB will NEVER beat Minn as long as Farve is the QB! Go Falcons, Go Vikings!
BravesFan79
August 5th, 2010
1:00 pm
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Reid Adair
August 5th, 2010
1:13 pm
The Cowboys will stumble as usual, and I don’t see the Saints getting the breaks they got through the 2009 season; they’ve also lost some key pieces from last year’s team.
That being said, I am excited about 2010 for the Falcons.
keith
August 5th, 2010
1:20 pm
I love this pre-season speculations…makes it fun!!
Even though I don’t think we can pick anyone else but the Saints…even though I know we almost beat them twice last year, and we’re definitely improved this year.
I’d put the Falcons about the 3rd or 4th best team in the NFC.
ATL Observer
August 5th, 2010
1:33 pm
Can’t agree with Green Bay as the favorite but then again, that’s assuming Favre doesn’t come back. And even if he doesn’t, it’s not like Minnesota suddenly transforms into the Lions…who knows? Maybe Jackson comes out better than he was in the pre-Favre days.
I like the Falcons to win the division. For whatever reason, it’s tough to repeat as South champs. Whatever happens after that is a crapshoot.
Larry
August 5th, 2010
2:02 pm
“It’s difficult to criticize a team that just won the Super Bowl. But it’s noteworthy that no NFC South champion ever has successfully defended its division title.”
True, and I hope you’re right. However, it also true no NFC South champion has had a Drew Brees, and when you look at consecutive winners they all have one thing in common: an elite QB like a Brady, Manning and yes, a Brees. The Saints may not win it, but there’s not a chance of them being complacent or satisfied with Brees in their huddle. He’s the consummate leader!
And I’m a Falcon fan, by the way!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2010
2:10 pm
Jeff what are you smoking? What have the Falcons done that would leap frog them over the Saints/Vikings/Eagles/Giants/Redskins/Cowboys or even the Bears and Niners?
All of those teams have improved on the off season, yet the Falcons only paid 50 million for an injury prone cb who they didn’t have to fight to sign. The Texans didn’t even put up a fight to re-sign him.
Peter King just toured the camps and made this statement:
“Michael Turner better stay healthy or the Falcons are in big trouble.”
That’s not a very flattering statement for the 72-million dollar noodle arm.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2010
2:20 pm
Here are guaranteed loses right away:
Green Bay
Steelers
Ravens
Bengals
Eagles
Arizona
Saints x 2
Panthers (at least once)
Probable losses:
Bucs (if choke….well ….. CHOKES)
Niners
As long as CHOKE is behind center this team will be saying “he is still young and improving”.
Meanwhile, Flacco (The true ROY in 2008) will be playing in the superbowl and you guys can keep using that same tired excuse…….
- “With that defense, anybody could win”
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2010
2:22 pm
Larry
August 5th, 2010
2:02 pm
“It’s difficult to criticize a team that just won the Super Bowl. But it’s noteworthy that no NFC South champion ever has successfully defended its division title.”
——————————————————–
It’s also noteworthy that the 2008 Falcons were the 1st NFC South team to no go “worst to first”.
So much for patterns
PMC
August 5th, 2010
2:31 pm
Choke, wouldn’t you just hate Flacco if he were here instead of Ryan?
Isn’t this mostly about someone else?
NOLA
August 5th, 2010
2:33 pm
You Lie Jeff Schultz. You Lie.
PMC
August 5th, 2010
2:34 pm
Also, “Choke” would imply that he’s really good and he fails in important situations repeatedly.
I think Matt “Fail” Ryan would be a better name really since you think he is terrible.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2010
2:38 pm
PMC
August 5th, 2010
2:34 pm
Also, “Choke” would imply that he’s really good and he fails in important situations repeatedly.
I think Matt “Fail” Ryan would be a better name really since you think he is terrible.
——————————————————-
I didn’t give him the title – he earned it
Considering he is in the record book as the only starting qb that didn’t go “worst-to-first” in the NFC South.
Should have drafted Flacco – I told ya so…..
Idot
August 5th, 2010
2:52 pm
Wasn’t Drew Brees the saints QB in 2008 when they finished 8-8?
Sage of Bluesland
August 5th, 2010
2:52 pm
“…I also question whether Keith Brooking can again play at the level he did a year ago….”
Come on, Jeff–I can’t believe what I just read (above). Our former, fraudulent, Hometown Hero has as much impact on how the Cowboys will do as a butterfly flapping their wings in Japan!
Wait a minute–unless it comes down to covering the tight end in the final minutes of a playoff game?…or in actually making an impact play FOR his team…
I’m just glad that particular fraud isn’t here anymore….Addition by subtraction and all…I saw the ancient Peterson have a more positive “impact” (in more ways than just community service, feel-good tripe) in a few games than good ol’ Keith had in five years….
Idot
August 5th, 2010
2:54 pm
All these saints fans, and a lot of these people that call themselves Falcon fans, talk as if Drew Brees can walk on water. He can’t.
Elvisinthehouse
August 5th, 2010
2:56 pm
@robertussen,Im alive like tupac quiet as kept,i flew to mars and set up camp.Me and tupac will work on songs then come back to earth and have a concert in the superbowl at halftime and guess what? it won’t be this sorry team they call the falcons playing in it.Thankya very muuuch!! puff puff paaaaass the deception.
Idot
August 5th, 2010
2:57 pm
Drew Brees had a career year, along with a few of his recievers, that also had career years. It won’t happen in the year 2010.
Idot
August 5th, 2010
3:02 pm
Drew Brees, and the NFL referees carried the saints in 2009.
The NFL and their referees have given the saints, all that they are going to get from them.
If Brees gets hurt, the saints are sunk.
But the saints aren’t going to the playoffs in 2010, regardless.
Idot
August 5th, 2010
3:05 pm
Shultz and all the other so-called experts, have the saints way overrated.
The saints will be fortunate if they end the season at 8-8.
The saints will probably wind up going 5-11, if they are lucky.
Elvisinthehouse
August 5th, 2010
3:16 pm
@Idot you mentioned the saints(Im definately not a saints fan)are sunk if brees get hurt so what do you say about the falcons if ryan gets hurt? because blueman(redman)and charles peter paul david parker jr are wickedy wickedy WACK!!!
Elvisinthehouse
August 5th, 2010
3:18 pm
I also give the noodle man(ryan) 20 picks this season.
Mike Franklin
August 5th, 2010
4:26 pm
All things being equal… though they are not, I like the Falcs because they’ve had a year to grow a new D and marinade the O. If the birds can’t score in the red zone this year, or prevent opponents from that little feat, then there won’t be a lot of excuses that will hold water.
I’m betting that excuses will not be required.
Will
August 5th, 2010
4:33 pm
Big Easy- “Your” Steelers suck. Leftwich sucks!
Elvisinthehouse
August 5th, 2010
6:24 pm
Who thought of this sorry rise up theme? its super carney and boring.There gonna rise up alrighty,rise up there belongings come playoff time when there clearing out there lockers going home.Ill call blank and tell him the teams new theme and thats WAIT TIL NEXT YEAR,something i have been hearing since 1966.Keep the tissue close lil buddy.