It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment
Bobby Cox took the ball from Kenshin Kawakami Sunday -- but why give it back?
So I stood by Bobby Cox Sunday when he said he didn’t want to talk about any future decisions regarding Kenshin Kawakami, though he added, “He’ll make his next start.” Why? By default. Jair Jurrjens has at least another week of rehab left.
And then I stood by Kenshin Kawakami as he deflected no criticism (a commendable character trait of his) and said of possibly losing his starting job: “I haven’t thought about that much. But being a starter, I’m not really doing my job right now, so I’m ready for anything that is coming.”
Loading ...Kawakami is baseball’s only $23 million fifth starter. He also has the distinction of being 0-9 for a first-place team. Only three other pitchers in the majors have lost as many games: Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez (3-10), Cleveland’s David Huff (2-9) and former Brave, now of Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton (1-9).
The Indians are in last place. The Pirates are in last place. The Astros are one-half game ahead of the Pirates. See where I’m going with this?
Yes, Kawakami has received little run support in some starts but that hasn’t really been the case of late. He was handed a 4-0 lead Sunday against Kansas City and promptly doused it with gasoline and lit a match to it. He also committed his third error in his last two starts.
Further — and this is where all of those, “Oh, stop picking on him, meanie; don’t you know the Braves don’t score for him?” arguments fall apart — Kawakami’s ERA is 4.78.
Once again, because some of his defenders ignore this number: 4.78. That is the worst ERA on the staff among active pitchers, save reliever Jesse Chavez (7.33), who doesn’t really count. Kawakami also is yielding the most hits per nine innings (10.2), has allowed the most home runs (nine) and, it follows, the highest slugging percentage (.478).
Stop the madness.
If Jurrjens is cleared following his next start at Gwinnett, this should be an easy decision for Cox: Keep Kris Medlen (3-0, 3.67 as a starter) in the rotation and put Kawakami in the bullpen. Granted, middle relief is not what general manager Frank Wren projected when he gave Kawakami a contract for over $7 million per year. But Kawakami has shown an ability to strike people out. So maybe there’s something to salvage from this.
Think of it as salvaging the rear bumper after a front-end collision.
I can pretty much guess which way sentiment is going on this. I’ve got a poll up also. Let me hear ya.
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495 comments Add your comment
Jeff
June 21st, 2010
5:54 pm
Also who are the 63 idiots who voted “keep him as a starter”?
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
6:06 pm
Jeff – why do they have to be idiots for voting that way? Does that imply that the managers and front office people are idiots too for voting that way each time he trots out to the mound? Also this may be idiotic to ask, but why would the Pirates trade their young guy that makes less than $500,000 for a $5m player they USED TO HAVE that is on the DL and a $7.3m player? Their payroll would grow by almost 1/3. Was this fantasy or videogames or just another slow pot calling out a kettle?
Bleu_Bayou42
June 21st, 2010
6:07 pm
I am sticking with KK. I watch every game. His stuff is not that bad. It’s just a wierd situation. I think he’s got a good attitude considering. Has it worked out like Frank Wren and KK wanted, of course not. Baseball is unpredictable.
Wink
June 21st, 2010
6:09 pm
LookDeeperAtStats – thanks for the stats. Seems to me the guy is doing a bang up job with only 17 innings of run support to 79 innings pitched; now I am sure we all would have expected a win, but he is giving us quality starts, dicounting the last 2 outings as a blip on the screen.
I can remember a guy who could not even throw the ball to the catcher, but Smoltz turned out alright after he saw the therapist!
Bleu_Bayou42
June 21st, 2010
6:12 pm
You guys that think Frank Wren could bundle a deal to unload KK and think it’s that simple are insane. We gottem and he’s not going anywhere, so it’s best figure out how to best use him. If he is open to working out of the bull pen for the good of the team, I think is refreshing. Very rarely does team superceed ego with modern day atheletes.
Mike
June 21st, 2010
6:12 pm
If Lowe and KK switched places in their starts, KK would have wins and Lowe would probably have a very low amount. KK is always going up against the Ace of the Staff of the opposing team. KK & Lowe’s pitching stats are very similar and Lowe is making much more money to boot.
Mike
June 21st, 2010
6:17 pm
Have you checked out Derek Lowe’s stats? His stats are almost identical to Kawakami’s. So why is Lowe 9-5 while Kawakami is 0-9. Both are proned to have terrible outings every now and then (see Lowe’s start in Arizona). The difference is Kawakami is getting less than 2 runs per game average for run support. That means NO margin for error. He is posting an ERA in the low 3’s since May 1st, but several no decisions.
He’s got some bad luck, and that can be enough to pull the plug on guys. But to sit here and talk like he is totally getting out classed on the staff is absurd. Lowe is being paid twice as much for the same stats, just much higher run support.
Mike Smith
June 21st, 2010
6:18 pm
Just to qualify, the same Mike didnt make both comments in a row, but great minds certainly did think alike
. I did the second comment.
willie g really hates bill shanks
June 21st, 2010
6:23 pm
trade kk and resop, and chipper to the yankees get vasquez back and this team will be in the national chamoipnship league this year against series against the cardinals and it will do for the national league to finally win the DAMN ALL STAR GAME TO GET THE 7GAME SERIES IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE THIS YEAR SINCE THIS STARTED THE AMERICAN LEAGUE HAS WON EVERYGAME AND BY THE ALL STARS SO FAR THAT THE FANS ARE VOTING FOR THEY MAY WIN AGAIN BUT WE HAVE ULBALDO JIMINEZ TO WORK 3INNINGS SO WE HAVE A CHANCE THIS YEAR TO JUMP OUT TO A EARLY LEAD.
james
June 21st, 2010
6:24 pm
the braves need to keep k k.if he js traded he wjll beat the braves every time. trade derek lowe……he is a 65million dollar joke
willie g really hates bill shanks
June 21st, 2010
6:26 pm
good article jeff
willie g really hates bill shanks
June 21st, 2010
6:27 pm
put conrad at third.
JohnSmith
June 21st, 2010
6:30 pm
I’ll laugh if KK throws a no-no in his next and final start as a Brave.
Donte080
June 21st, 2010
6:35 pm
Why all the hate for KK? He’s pitched every bit as well as Derek Lowe…And I must have missed your rant about Nate McLouth, who has played much worse for this team than KK with his mindbogglingly anemic .178 BA…
rekingball
June 21st, 2010
6:36 pm
Lowe is a much better hitter than KK.
Chip's Mama
June 21st, 2010
6:39 pm
I don’t give a diddly-doo about KK.
I am just so happy that they are letting my boy do most of the play-by-play on the broadcasts.
Donte080
June 21st, 2010
6:40 pm
Yeah, right. 4.77 is “much better” than 4.78..
Jo-Bu
June 21st, 2010
6:43 pm
x
supsalemgr
June 21st, 2010
6:51 pm
One decision that didn’t work out for Frank Wren. Overall, he has put together an effective team. It is time to go to another fifth starter.
Taylor
June 21st, 2010
6:59 pm
People still defend Kawakami? That’s amazing
AL HRABOSKY
June 21st, 2010
7:07 pm
To be fair, KK has not pitched that bad for a 5th starter, compared to the rest of the league’s 5th starters.
KK has gone up against many of the opposing team’s aces.
He has had the lineup changed on his starts by Cox, with many of the hot hitting Braves bats taken out of the starting lineup, and replace with luke-warm bats.
But, as pointed out previously, he was not hired to be a 5th starter.
The Braves should be getting more for their money.
heywood...
June 21st, 2010
7:14 pm
testing 1,2,3…
T'VILLE DAWG
June 21st, 2010
7:20 pm
Medlen can’t go to the pen, he is arguably the best starter on a team of best starters. So you think a 23 mill fifth starter how about a 23 mill middle reliever?
Truth Speaker
June 21st, 2010
7:23 pm
release him. Now that Subway is serving breakfast maybe he can catch on with a restuarant near the stadium.
Colin
June 21st, 2010
7:23 pm
KK needs to go home, and JJ take his spot with Medlen staying..he has shown he is not MLB material, or maybe he needs just needs a change of scenery..I am ready for the game!
Fred
June 21st, 2010
7:25 pm
Get rid of that bum and send him back to Japan. Any Gwinnett Braves starter is better right now.
Truth Speaker
June 21st, 2010
7:26 pm
By the way I have 2 tickets and a 4 hour drive for next Tue game against the Nats. Does anybody know if KK is pitching? My tix might go on ebay.
StatusLaureate
June 21st, 2010
7:27 pm
“Bobby Cox should be saying, ‘My Kawakami is horrible. It won’t start.’<– There's a motorcycle joke in there somewhere." (Twitter/StatusLaureate)
puff
June 21st, 2010
7:29 pm
Jeff, says I already voted. Ain’t so. Of the 3 choices, put him in the pen and maybe he can eat a few mop-up innings to spare the real pitchers. But he’s still using up a roster spot. KK looks unsalvageable, but rather than release him I would try to get something out of the $23M by finding an excuse to DL him and giving him some rehab work.
Oil spill sux
June 21st, 2010
7:31 pm
Joe Cox will be fine.
Oil spill sux
June 21st, 2010
7:32 pm
sorry, saw it so many times- plus that I am drunk.
Colin
June 21st, 2010
7:36 pm
I say we crush Danks, maybe a 10 spot.
Taylor
June 21st, 2010
7:43 pm
Truth Speaker, you should avoid KK because he pitches saturday
Jimbo
June 21st, 2010
7:51 pm
KK is awful: http://clatl.com/freshloaf/archives/2010/06/18/the-series-cynic-braves-bedevil-rays-too-easy
Braves in first? OK ... time to eat some crow - MajorWager Forums
June 21st, 2010
7:52 pm
[...] [...]
Bragan
June 21st, 2010
7:53 pm
A huge waste of money on this worthless jerk. Put him on the boat and send him home in shame.
ijudgenot
June 21st, 2010
7:58 pm
Lowe and KK have about the same era and both are about 5 inning pitchers before the oil starts to leak. Yet Lowe is a winning pitcher and KK is not because Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher that gets a lot of groundballs, which forces infielders to be attentive and therefore gain a rythym of the game with him. The trouble with him is that he loses it quickly around the 5+ inning and ball starts to float to plate like a frisby and Cox makes move to bullpen one inning too late. Have bullpen geting ready in 5th inning just in case like in Smoltz last year and he would be a 20 game winner. KK is a middle of plate to above the belt pitcher with a fast ball that tops out at around 90mph. That is with him giving all he’s got and ball sailing above the belt(which alot of times ends in outfield seats). He gets 2 strikes alot but does not have an out pitch so you see alot of 2 strikes followed by several foul balls then a hit. Consequently the players don’t get into a rythym and end up making a lot of errors behind him.
Put him in the pen to be used in 5th,6th, or 7th inning only. Not to be used after 7th. He can gain some confidence, because his confidence is shot at this point.
BartBuzz
June 21st, 2010
8:49 pm
Jeff…I still think KK could help the Braves as a reliever. But if the owners could somehow buy him out or trade him at a loss, that might be the smarter option. The Braves appear loaded with pitching prospects.
Mike Smith
June 21st, 2010
9:01 pm
@ijudgenot – good analysis there. Im sure that is part of the problem.
It doesn’t explain why the Braves dont hit for KK, but it does explain the defensive errors. Something else is not right here though. Last year he went 7-12 even though he had a very respectable 3.86 ERA. Its hard to figure out.
I would be interested in the Braves’ record in games Kawakami started. How many ND starts for him are we losing?
chem
June 21st, 2010
9:03 pm
Over 2009-2010 Kawakami has an ERA of 4.16 which is pretty good for a bottom of the rotation pitcher. If you compare the stats of Lowe and Kawakami over the past 2 seasons — or just this season — Kawakami beats Lowe in almost every category aside from W-L record. And, get this, Kawakami makes less money! The only reason this article was written is because of poor run support (bad luck). Kawakamis performance against other teams “aces” was the reason the Braves came close to the playoffs last year. This year Kawakami flipped a coin 9 times and got tails 9 straight times. If you don’t see that braves fans, then perhaps you are racist.
PJ Rocks
June 21st, 2010
9:12 pm
I feel the same, but isn’t his ERA and Derek Lowe’s ERA similar? Al I am saying is let’s not pile on, let’s just do what is right.
BartBuzz
June 21st, 2010
9:16 pm
Basically, KK has bad karma. That’s just the way it goes. The Braves don’t need a guy in the rotation whose main purpose for pitching is to get a monkey off his back. Sometimes things don’t work out. Has nothing to do with racism.
SCBravesFan
June 21st, 2010
9:32 pm
Jeff,
While I agree with the sentiment of the blog, KK has to go to the pen, I did think the “put him on the curb with a sign…” was in poor taste.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
9:40 pm
Question — you do send KK anywhere you want, but you still have to pay him.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
9:42 pm
DP — I don’t have a vendetta. I just write about issues.
Matt the Brave
June 21st, 2010
9:52 pm
Thanks!
Great work as usual, and I’m already looking forward to Predictions season. 
jhughes
June 21st, 2010
9:55 pm
TEchman you are right on most thing i have read from you but the bottom line is you play to win games the money he is being paid does not justify the record especially when you factor in a younger cheaper optino in Medlen. Lowe no matter how crappy or for whatever reason has won a decent amount of games therfore deflecting some of the critcism he deserves. KK could be left in the rotation and you can hope he turns it around and becomes a more solid dependable pitcher of which you could trade or you could go with the best option in that spot which is Medlen..Also what are the eras of the pitchers Medlen haas faced and hudson and hanson to relly get an idea where that data stands you should look at all the starters not just lowe and KK. Again i agree with most of what your saying but to hate on the article is a little hard on ole schultzie and over the top. KK is servicble in the 5th starter rotation but medlen has had better results i feel like everyone is arguing over symantics at this point
OedipusTax
June 21st, 2010
10:05 pm
Let Kawakami drive his Kawasaki like a Kamakaze and solve the Braves problem financially and on the field.
jhughes
June 21st, 2010
10:08 pm
schultzie great read as always and way to fire back at the morons! When are you going national with this writing thing? Also do you think KK could turn it around to the point where he could be traded this year? right now he has no trade value with that contract. Also do you think the braves will make a trade for a outfielder or is it still early to speculate?
JEFF
June 21st, 2010
10:35 pm
put him on the next flight back to Japan and cut the cord. If we performed at this level with our job and our minimal pay, we would be canned, he should too. Why is it people get sentimental over players making more than they will in a life time and don’e won’t to let them go? I don’t get it.