It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment
Bobby Cox took the ball from Kenshin Kawakami Sunday -- but why give it back?
So I stood by Bobby Cox Sunday when he said he didn’t want to talk about any future decisions regarding Kenshin Kawakami, though he added, “He’ll make his next start.” Why? By default. Jair Jurrjens has at least another week of rehab left.
And then I stood by Kenshin Kawakami as he deflected no criticism (a commendable character trait of his) and said of possibly losing his starting job: “I haven’t thought about that much. But being a starter, I’m not really doing my job right now, so I’m ready for anything that is coming.”
Loading ...Kawakami is baseball’s only $23 million fifth starter. He also has the distinction of being 0-9 for a first-place team. Only three other pitchers in the majors have lost as many games: Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez (3-10), Cleveland’s David Huff (2-9) and former Brave, now of Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton (1-9).
The Indians are in last place. The Pirates are in last place. The Astros are one-half game ahead of the Pirates. See where I’m going with this?
Yes, Kawakami has received little run support in some starts but that hasn’t really been the case of late. He was handed a 4-0 lead Sunday against Kansas City and promptly doused it with gasoline and lit a match to it. He also committed his third error in his last two starts.
Further — and this is where all of those, “Oh, stop picking on him, meanie; don’t you know the Braves don’t score for him?” arguments fall apart — Kawakami’s ERA is 4.78.
Once again, because some of his defenders ignore this number: 4.78. That is the worst ERA on the staff among active pitchers, save reliever Jesse Chavez (7.33), who doesn’t really count. Kawakami also is yielding the most hits per nine innings (10.2), has allowed the most home runs (nine) and, it follows, the highest slugging percentage (.478).
Stop the madness.
If Jurrjens is cleared following his next start at Gwinnett, this should be an easy decision for Cox: Keep Kris Medlen (3-0, 3.67 as a starter) in the rotation and put Kawakami in the bullpen. Granted, middle relief is not what general manager Frank Wren projected when he gave Kawakami a contract for over $7 million per year. But Kawakami has shown an ability to strike people out. So maybe there’s something to salvage from this.
Think of it as salvaging the rear bumper after a front-end collision.
I can pretty much guess which way sentiment is going on this. I’ve got a poll up also. Let me hear ya.
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495 comments Add your comment
GTSteve
June 21st, 2010
4:54 pm
@trey…lol
Chip Caray's Eyebrows
June 21st, 2010
4:54 pm
Techman, if you think KK has the best stuff on the team, then….wow. I know Mac said that. I remember reading that. Guys say stuff to cover for guys or build guys up etc.. KK and Lowe have the worst stuff on the staff, KK behind Lowe because Lowe will still have his sinker every now and then. KK has high 80’s velocity, flat fastball, with a breaking ball that spins on occasion. As a college, catcher you should relaize that is not the best stuff on this staff.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
4:55 pm
mini-me, I guess you missed Hanson’s start against the reds and Jurrgens start against the padres. Both were worse.
cheshire
June 21st, 2010
4:56 pm
well, the bottom line here is that it’s really between Lowe and Kawakami, and if you look at their #’s, they are almost identical in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. The only stat with significant difference is their win-loss record, where Lowe is pretty much blowing KK away.
Personally, i’ve always thought that the “win” statistic for a pitcher is incredibly overrated as it gives a pitcher credit for a lot of things he had nothing to do with. The one thing i do think it’s a measuring stick for (and again, it’s a little vague) is how well a pitcher does with what he’s handed. Yes, that’s not completely fair either since some pitchers are handed more than others, but it’s an unfortunate reality of how things shake out. And the reality right now is that you are winning more games when Lowe pitches than when Kawakami pitches.
You can argue that’s not Kawakami’s fault and blah blah blah, and maybe you have some valid reasons for saying that, but to me yesterday’s start was a great example of what is wrong with Kawakami: when he does get runs, he isn’t protecting them.
LookDeeperAtStats, you are right, he has had some great stretches. But he’s not winning games even when he’s handed runs. And i don’t think you can say that’s just bad luck. There have been a lot of pitchers over the years who, for whatever reason, aren’t as good once they’re given runs. It’s just one of those weird psychological things about pitching.
It’s not a particularly easy decision, but that is one metric where Lowe is killing KK. So i’m just not seeing what the argument is to keep KK in the bullpen once Jurrjens returns.
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
4:57 pm
Techman – no problem. In fact for his price, he is an alright bargain (preparing for flaming).
Trey – I have done nothing to you to warrant being called ignorant. My ignorant self will point out that Kawakami has only given up 5 runs twice… and NOT A SINGLE GAME with more than 5. So I will rewrite your statement to reflect reality rather than blowhard…
“In many of KK starts he has given up at least five runs.” to “Twice this year KK has given up five runs. Twice this year Hanson has given up at least five runs (8 once). Derek Lowe has given up at least 5 runs (7 twice) four times this year, or double what KK has. JJ gave up at least 3 or more runs in ALL but 1 of his handful of starts (8 once). Our ace Hudson hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in a single start.”
Techman
June 21st, 2010
4:58 pm
Actually, I think he has really good stuff. I think it’s his location that’s killing him. that, and I don’t even know how you could quantify this, but he hangs too many curves.
I also believe there are too many things on tv that you cannot see that someone playing on the field can. The movement on a fastball comes to mind.
cheshire
June 21st, 2010
5:00 pm
by the way, regardless of how much you love or hate KK, no trades need to be made for pitching. we are one of the few teams in MLB who has the luxury of saying that.
our only big hole is in CF, and you could probably argue that’s not a huge hole as we’ve been getting some good production there lately. but if you want a position where you could significantly upgrade an already outstanding team, CF would be it. if we could get McCutchen from Pittsburgh, i would die of happiness. (yes, i know, that’s a pipe dream)
Techman
June 21st, 2010
5:01 pm
I don’t think KK’s issue is luck at all. As I have stated repeatedly, he is facing too many pitchers that are better than him. He has gone up against 11 pitchers with ERA’s under 4. Lowe has faced 3. That is also a very simple explanation to the reason the braves score more runs when Lowe pitches. The opposing pitchers are not as good.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
5:02 pm
agree cheshire. I would love to get a big bopper but not at the asking price. And like you say, where would we put them?
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:02 pm
LookDeepAtStats – I apologize for calling you ignorant. However, KK has gone more than two games giving up five runs. He may have only given up five earned runs twice, but he has still given up five runs more than twice.
Einsteindawg
June 21st, 2010
5:05 pm
His ERA is low because he leads the team in errors. KK is this years version of McWhiff and follows Kotchman, Kolb, etc. It’s only money, so exit him as we’ll need a dependable arm to take his spot down the stretch. Anyone notice how Chippah’s cronic injuries are actually helping the team? Go Braves!
KK
June 21st, 2010
5:07 pm
Hey, I lead the team in errors so my ERA has to be low…you can send me to the minors but don’t throw me in the briarpatch.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:08 pm
LookDeepAtStats – I hate being called ignorant myself.
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
5:09 pm
I’m not saying he is an ace or some super pitcher, but he is more than adequate. His record stinks… but so does the whole team’s on those days. For $7million and for a 5th starter, he does more than what is needed. He eats innings, puts us in most games, and will likely only see some middle relief in the playoffs.
Looking at some of the other starters out there that may be available at the deadline makes me even more satisfied with him.
Gil Meche (0-4, 6.66) $12m
Jake Westbrook (4-3, 4.62) $11m
Ben Sheets (2-6, 4.93) $10m
Kevin Millwood (0-8,5.16) $12m
Cheshire – still disagree on your pitching point but will surely sign off on a vacation package for Nate and the CF issue.
never happen
June 21st, 2010
5:11 pm
Great article, and the bull pen is the only way. Why would some team trade for him? Nobody is going to trade for a 7m+ pitcher who is in his mid 30’s and gets lit up like a Christmas tree almost every time he pitches. Send him to the bull pen for long relief since that is the only piece of the bull pen we don’t have.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:12 pm
LookDeepAtStats – So just because he is a fifth starter that is a free pass for him to stink? Why should the fifth starter not be as good or almost as good as the first? He is 0-9 making $7 million and not performing. So it’s okay to blow every five games just because the fifth starter is no good? He is the only fifth starter with no victories. The only other pitcher that is pitching bad is Kevin Millwood.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:12 pm
Well pitching as bad as KK.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
5:14 pm
the point is he’s pretty good for a 4th or 5th starter.
I completely forgot his ERA was 3.86 last year. Yeah, go ahead and pull the cord on this guy.
Joe
June 21st, 2010
5:15 pm
Don’t let facts stand in your way Jeff…..his ERA in the 6 games previous to this last one was 3.00 – and you still want to say run support hasn’t been an issue? He shoud at least gotten 2 or 3 wins in that stretch. The fact remains he hasn’t pitched decently the last month and has nothing to show for it. Not sure what you aren’t getting here.
If he wins in his next start and does so convincingly, Bobby’s loyalty kicks in and he stays in the rotation.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
5:15 pm
Trey, I’ve already done it once somewhere in this blog but KK’s stats are better than all #5 starters on contenders.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
5:16 pm
I think he’s out of the rotation regardless. My only contention is he’s going and Lowe’s staying.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
5:16 pm
I should say contenders in the NL. I didn’t feel it was apples to apples to compare him to AL pitchers.
Joe
June 21st, 2010
5:16 pm
Correction – He should have at least gotten 2 or 3 wins
……..he has pitched decently.
buzz
June 21st, 2010
5:19 pm
Jeff, I am not a KK fan nor a baseball fan but this is a TOTAL smear job by you and is totally irresponsible. 14 of the other NL teams have a starter with an ERA that is worse than KK. There are 19 starters, who have started 9 games or more, with ERA’s worse than KK.
Maybe you should take a look on the same roster at a player making double the salary of KK with an ERA that is exactly 0.01 less.
Jimbo
June 21st, 2010
5:19 pm
Painful to watch: http://TwitPWR.com/KVl/
Wink
June 21st, 2010
5:20 pm
This thing about run support goes all the way back to last year’s team. The guy get’s no run support. KK’s ERA is 4.78 and the Braves are averaging 5 runs per game, how is it then that he has lost 9 games & no wins? Are they taking the day off when he pitches; of his 9 losses how may of those games have the Braves won, inspite of his record. Could it be he pitches into at least the 6th inning, and they win after he departs? We ask our pitchers to give us innings and KK does that. Derek Lowe was suppose to be our weak link last year and he won 15 games. Now we want to make KK the weak link…make up your mind, why don’t you?
TROTTINGHOME
June 21st, 2010
5:20 pm
The end hasn’t come yet Trey
Jmor
June 21st, 2010
5:21 pm
The problem with KK is location…He is constantly hanging that slow curve and leaving his 90mph fastball belt high over the plate…If you watched the game against the Royals, they were digging in waiting on the center cut pitch and creaming it.Even if he has a 123 inning, with those hanging curves abnd waist high fastballs, he is always in danger of a hr or double in the gap.I am convinced he can’t win if this is the best he can locate his rather mediocre stuff.
I'm Legal
June 21st, 2010
5:21 pm
Cheshire, agree on cf. What about trade Nate for David DeJesus. DeJesus will be a free agent and if we could trade and sign him that would solve a big problem. Also would give Braves couple years to develope another J-Hey, maybe. Even if they traded Schafer for DeJesus if DeJesus would sign for couple years it would be better than what we have. Schafer is still a BIG ? mark! Oh hell its fun to dream.
Blackberry Cobbler
June 21st, 2010
5:22 pm
Dump Lowe, KK, and McWiff.
KK’s not worth the money he’s getting paid and neither is Lowe.
KK was just a bad experiment and Lowe is pretty much washed up after 5 innings if he makes it’s that far.
OrlandoDawg
June 21st, 2010
5:22 pm
Looks like there are 60 rah-tards that read this blog
Question
June 21st, 2010
5:24 pm
Under KK’s contract — CAN the Braves send him to AAA to work out his problems?
Neal
June 21st, 2010
5:24 pm
KK is in a slump just like a batter, BCox will keep running him out there because he knows what he saw last year is hiding in that arm and will come back and when it comes back, KK will win 8 out of 9 starts probably. Only drawback is that our other pitching that is going so well right now might go cold. Look at Lowe, BCox held on with him and it paid off. I can remember when everyone was calling for Lowe to hit the pen.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
5:24 pm
that would be great but why would the royals trade dejesus for McLouth?
TROTTINGHOME
June 21st, 2010
5:25 pm
Trey…do your math…15 div by 5 = 33.3%…21 div by 7= 33.3%…its just as bad or just as good…depending on your negativity level.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:25 pm
TROTTINGHOME – The end of Kawakami’s pitching career has.
bgvt
June 21st, 2010
5:26 pm
While Jeff might say that ERA was just to counter arguments that he has been unjustly persecuted, I think that a deeper look at ERA suggests that KK hasn’t been all that bad. You compared him to other pitchers on the Braves — a team with a good bullpen and a number of good starters. I should note that Jurrjens has a higher ERA (6.38 in 5 starts!).
Compared to the rest of the NL, 119 pitchers have started games this year. If you look at their stats only as starters, KK’s ERA ranks 70th. There are 14 starting pitchers in the NL who have started 10 or more games who have worse ERAs than KK. Thus, I think he pretty much has the ERA of a 5th starter. Timing has been the problem. In a number of games, KK has pitched well and the offense has done nothing. I think people are over-reacting by just looking at the W-L record.
All of that said, the question for the Braves is who should be in the rotation when Jurrjens is ready. Medlen has pitched well and deserves a spot in the rotation. Thus, KK is the odd-man out. However, my takeaway from thinking about this question is that the Braves have put together a very good pitching staff. While Jeff S wants to tar KK as being similar to pitchers for the Pirates, Astros, and Indians (by focusing on the number of losses), many teams have a starter with numbers (other than W-L record) that are similar to KK’s (e.g., Kevin Correia with SD has an ERA of 5.27 in 13 starts; Joe Blanton has a 6.96 ERA in 9 starts for the Phils).
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:27 pm
TROTTINGHOME – I am a very optimistic Braves fan. I just know KK has yet to get the job done.
TROTTINGHOME
June 21st, 2010
5:27 pm
oops my bad …5div by 15 and 7 div by 21
TROTTINGHOME
June 21st, 2010
5:29 pm
there’s a few others that have yet to get the job done
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
5:30 pm
Off topic commentary. I live nowhere near Atlanta but have been a Braves fan for a couple of decades. I have been a Falcons fan about as long and have had season tickets that require me to fly in to the games if I am lucky enough to get to go see my favorite team. Where I am from people support their teams here in a way that I don’t see in this market.
I thought at first it was because the teams were bad (Hawks other than Nique’s years and last couple, Falcons pretty much forever not named 98 and a couple here and there, and sadly for the Thrashers they play in the NHL which is forgotten by most). But the Braves didn’t fit that mold for 14 years.
Then I thought about the fact that so many people living in Atlanta are transplants and still support their old teams. And that is probably a good part of it. But what I really think I notice most is that people are extremely critical of the teams, and it starts with the media.
14 division titles was not enough to sell out playoff games. The Hawks have improved year after year but that wasn’t enough so the coach gets fired… and the new coach gets grilled. The Braves are playing the best baseball they have in awhile (almost the best in baseball) and the front page of the local paper’s Braves section calls for the removal of a player no less than 5x… and not one mention of a 5 game win streak or a 3 game sweep.
And here you and I sit arguing about an underachieving player and his worth and not slapping virtual high fives because this team is hitting the cover off the ball and can hang with anyone. Headlines can paint a different picture just the same as stats.
High Fives everyone.
DP
June 21st, 2010
5:31 pm
Jeff, I don’t get your Kawakami vendetta. A month or so ago you were ridiculing him when he was 0-7, saying that he was on pace to go 0-25. Yeah, he hasn’t been getting the job done and Medlen has obviously earned KK’s spot in the rotation when Jurrjens comes back.
But let’s be fair. Wren is the one who signed KK to the overpriced contract. KK is taking the ball every fifth day and giving his best effort. He has also pitched in very bad luck. He’s left 2 games without giving up a run but got no decisions. His ERA is barely above what Derek Lowe’s was last year (admittedly that’s not a high standard) and Lowe won 15 games. With normal run support, KK should be closer to 3-6 or 4-5 than 0-9. Not good, but not Dan Kolb or Greg Norton bad either.
Since nobody is going to pick up KK’s contract, send him to the bullpen for long relief. Put him in games when the Braves trail by 5 or 6 runs early so as not to overwork the rest of the bullpen. If a starting pitcher goes down, he’ll be available to fill in.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:33 pm
DP – Someone has to be harsh on a loser.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
5:33 pm
TROTTINGHOME – At least the other pitcher’s have gotten some wins and not created most of our losses.
Chip Caray's Eyebrows
June 21st, 2010
5:35 pm
7 Mill is not a bargain for a fifth starter. That is a stupid argument some misinformed people on here are bantering about. He is the team’s third highest paid player, and that makes sense how? Geez.
LivinInAL
June 21st, 2010
5:40 pm
This is not a knock at KK, but an undorsement for Chris Medlen, he has earned a spot in the starting rotation. The Braves are a better team when he starts than when KK starts. If the Braves are serious about a run for the playoffs, the tough decison that Bobby mentioned, is not tough. Long relief is not a biggie if starters 1-5 or going 6 or more innings almost every outing.
TROTTINGHOME
June 21st, 2010
5:45 pm
Enter your comments here
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
5:46 pm
Trey – apology accepted and no, being a 5th starter would not be reason to give a free pass to stink. I just don’t think he stinks. Also since you mentioned money… looking at our top salaries pretty much tells that a good deal of our players making $1m or more actually are underachieving (excluding Hudson, Wagner, Hinske, Infante, and Glaus). Lowe, Chipper, McCann, McLouth, Cabrera (although he is doing about what is expected), Diaz (injured maybe), Ross (lack of PT but good when playing), Saito and Moylan have been alright.
Wink- in 79 innings (counting partial ones a whole inning) KK has kept them scoreless in 50 innings, while the Braves have been scoreless in 62. He does a strong job off keeping the other team off the board and the Braves do a better job of keeping themselves off the board. Who knows why?
Bobby's Cox
June 21st, 2010
5:46 pm
I could care less if KK remains in the rotation, long as we keep increasing our lead in the division.
I really like Medlen, and think he can be just as good as Hanson like he showed in the minors, but if it’s for the better of the team to have Medlen in the bullpen, then so be it…though KK lasting 2-4 innings per start actually does no favors for the bullpen without a current long relief guy. But, when Jurrjens comes back, that guy that can give the team 3-4 innings out of the pen will be Medlen.
Bottom line: If the team keeps winning then it’s moot. The least that can happen is KK turns it around and becomes a trade piece, or becomes the pitcher he was last year.
Jeff
June 21st, 2010
5:52 pm
Kawakami and McLouth to the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen please.