It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment
Bobby Cox took the ball from Kenshin Kawakami Sunday -- but why give it back?
So I stood by Bobby Cox Sunday when he said he didn’t want to talk about any future decisions regarding Kenshin Kawakami, though he added, “He’ll make his next start.” Why? By default. Jair Jurrjens has at least another week of rehab left.
And then I stood by Kenshin Kawakami as he deflected no criticism (a commendable character trait of his) and said of possibly losing his starting job: “I haven’t thought about that much. But being a starter, I’m not really doing my job right now, so I’m ready for anything that is coming.”
Loading ...Kawakami is baseball’s only $23 million fifth starter. He also has the distinction of being 0-9 for a first-place team. Only three other pitchers in the majors have lost as many games: Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez (3-10), Cleveland’s David Huff (2-9) and former Brave, now of Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton (1-9).
The Indians are in last place. The Pirates are in last place. The Astros are one-half game ahead of the Pirates. See where I’m going with this?
Yes, Kawakami has received little run support in some starts but that hasn’t really been the case of late. He was handed a 4-0 lead Sunday against Kansas City and promptly doused it with gasoline and lit a match to it. He also committed his third error in his last two starts.
Further — and this is where all of those, “Oh, stop picking on him, meanie; don’t you know the Braves don’t score for him?” arguments fall apart — Kawakami’s ERA is 4.78.
Once again, because some of his defenders ignore this number: 4.78. That is the worst ERA on the staff among active pitchers, save reliever Jesse Chavez (7.33), who doesn’t really count. Kawakami also is yielding the most hits per nine innings (10.2), has allowed the most home runs (nine) and, it follows, the highest slugging percentage (.478).
Stop the madness.
If Jurrjens is cleared following his next start at Gwinnett, this should be an easy decision for Cox: Keep Kris Medlen (3-0, 3.67 as a starter) in the rotation and put Kawakami in the bullpen. Granted, middle relief is not what general manager Frank Wren projected when he gave Kawakami a contract for over $7 million per year. But Kawakami has shown an ability to strike people out. So maybe there’s something to salvage from this.
Think of it as salvaging the rear bumper after a front-end collision.
I can pretty much guess which way sentiment is going on this. I’ve got a poll up also. Let me hear ya.
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495 comments Add your comment
GT Alum
June 21st, 2010
3:48 pm
Jeff, the ERA argument wouldn’t be such an egregious issue if you hadn’t said KK has the worst ERA on the team except Chavez. Making a comparison like that is like saying I should buy something from you because you’re selling it cheaper when u charge 4.99 and everyone else charges $5. Just because something is technically true doesn’t mean it’s the whole truth.
I know you haven’t defended Lowe, but making that comparison without a disclaimer about Lowe’s ERA being 1/100th of a point lower is asking to get hammered. I can’t believe you didn’t think someone out there would realize Lowe’s ERA was in the neighborhood and check to see just how close.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:48 pm
j – Now there is no racism needed on this blog.
AZBravoFan
June 21st, 2010
3:49 pm
This dude obviously has a lot of pride and is concerned about his performance. I would venture to guess that if he is sent to the pen, he will not sulk or hang his head, but he will work even harder to get better, and could end up being a valuable guy out there. Remember, we still have D. Lowe who can melt down at any time. JJ will take a while to get his stamina back. Tommy Hanson can have his days of 120 pitches in 5 innings. So having a guy who might be able to lay down 2-3 solid innings is important. Plus if he can right the ship he’ll be the first one called on if one of the other guys goes down for whatever reason. Depth is key as well.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:49 pm
is30303- It doesn’t really make all Braves fans look like idiots, because he does not speak for all Braves fans.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:51 pm
wiki – the only thing i know to tell you is derek lowe is facing much worse pitching than KK is. If KK got to pitch against Charlie Morton every start, he would have a better W-L record. If Hudson was facing Jimenez every start, he would have a losing record.
is30303
June 21st, 2010
3:52 pm
trey – sorry you are right i shouldn’t insult the georgia school systems, they’re doing the best they can. Here’s the sad reality though, this blog is read by others and people’s comments are out of control when it comes to KK.
Chip Caray's Eyebrows
June 21st, 2010
3:53 pm
Techman, Schultz is saying you can’t just say wins and loses do not count and then say ERA’s don’t count either/ 4.50 or above for an ERA is NOT GOOD for a starter, especially one for his salary and age. I think myself, many bloggers, and Braves fans in general, have had it with stat geeks, announcers etc. telling us that we aren’t really seeing what we are seeing everytime KK pitches. He got the crap knocked out of him yesterday. Tampa did the same thing, but he got lucky the Esco play was an error. This team is too dang good, and the other 4 starters too consistent, to put up with KK’s issues right now. I think Bobby is finally seeing it, hopefully Wren is as well. The players are definitely seeing it. KK has been a stand up guy throughout the whole thing, but it doesn’t matter at this point. My point is, we are past the point of stat geeks throwing numbers to trick us into thinking he might be ok. He hasn’t gotten it done. Period.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:53 pm
Techman – I would not say that is true. Hudson can hold the opposing runners to one or two runs a game. The Braves could score three runs and win it for Hudson. However, KK can not give up three or fewer runs. He always blows the game and always comes so close to losing.
Mitchell
June 21st, 2010
3:54 pm
I’d literally rather have JoJo Reyes going out there every fifth day at this point. Says a lot that he hasn’t even been chance. Yeah, he’s that bad.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:55 pm
is30303 – I have nothing positive to say about KK, because he continues to let the team down.
Braves One
June 21st, 2010
3:55 pm
Kawakami, Chavez, McLouth…now that presents a major decision considering there’s only two seats left to Shutter Island.
is30303
June 21st, 2010
3:55 pm
GT Alum – no point in using Lowe as an example as to why KK isn’t that bad. Just point out that comparing a reliever’s ERA to a Stater’s ERA is silly. ERA is based on innings pitched. One bad outing for a reliever will inflate ERA just as a starter’s inability to go longer innings does.
The smart people will automatically see that Lowes ERA is also “lower” than KK’s because Lowe does have the ability to go longer into the games (more runs support, stronger arm, more skill as a pitcher, etc).
limey
June 21st, 2010
3:55 pm
Even the PATIENT and LOYAL Cox has waited too long here. Its enough already. Thank you Mr Schultz. KK has to go NOW!
Heywardville Knockahoma
June 21st, 2010
3:56 pm
ONE THING TO THINK ABOUT. KENSHIN ALSO LEADS THE TEAM IN UNEARNED RUNS. FACTOR THOSE IN AND THE BRAVES HAVE TO SCORE AT LEAST 6+ RUNS IN ORDER TO WIN.
Chip Caray's Eyebrows
June 21st, 2010
3:57 pm
Thank you for writing this Jeff, it needs to be said.
is30303
June 21st, 2010
3:58 pm
Trey. Sadly I am too. I can’t stand it when he goes out there every fifth day but then he does what he did against Arizona. Still, KK needs to go to the pen or AAA.
However, I can’t stand it more when people like Schultz bash him using stats that don’t reflect his year. I can’t tolerate racist comments even more – anyone who has endured racial prejudice understands how this feels.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:58 pm
Jimenez doesn’t even average 2 runs a game trey, and the last time he played the braves, he no hit them so I will have to disagree with you.
And sorry CCE, KK’s era might not be the best ERA in the league but it is not terrible. There are a lot of teams, including playoff teams that would love to have KK’s era. Sorry if that’s too “geeky” or too analytical for you.
Braves One
June 21st, 2010
3:59 pm
Trey…I have been one of the outspoken in getting KK out of the rotation…but let me say this, KK is a man of character. Never, not once has he ever made an excuse for his actions or lack of them, he has never deflected criticism and never once has he blamed anyone but himself. He may not be a premier major league pitcher, but he is a major candidate for this year’s “honorable” all star team.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:59 pm
is30303- Six innings is how long a pitcher should be able to go to get a quality start. KK usually goes six innings, but by that time he has thrown over 100 pitches, given up four or five earned runs. To say it is a lack of hitting is pointless as he should be able to hold the opposing team to fewer runs.
CanHewitt
June 21st, 2010
3:59 pm
According to some of posters on here and their logic, Jurjjens should go to bullpen when he’s ready. He has no win and his ERA is even higher than Kawakami.
With all seriousness, I don’t think anyone’s saying Kawakami should be starting over Medlen when it comes down to it. He just hasn’t been a colosal failure Jeff Shultz and others are making him out to be. As someone pointed out, he will not complain and move to bullpen when he’s asked. He’ll work hard to get better. He could be a valuable long reliever who could spot start whenever necessary. Who knows how well Jurjjens would pitch? If he doesn’t get going Braves need Kawakami to start again.
wiki
June 21st, 2010
3:59 pm
techman….if that’s your only point then yes I agree.
gdawginkalamazoo
June 21st, 2010
4:00 pm
Keep pitching him he will come around. 0-9, 0 and schmine. Just needs to get used to the bigs in the US. He isn’t quiting, nor is he knocking his teammates. Trade him and I bet he’ll be picking up a Cy Yound award the year after.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
4:00 pm
is30303 – Trust me, I think he’d be better off in the Minors for a while.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
4:01 pm
is30303, Lowe averages 5.8 innings, KK averages 5.3, which is roughly 2 outs a game. Lowe may have the ability to go further into a game, but I certainly wouldn’t know based on his performance this year.
is30303
June 21st, 2010
4:02 pm
CanHewitt – you represent what i’m talking about. JJ didn’t have enough innings pitched to take his ERA seriously. . . . JJ is fine
Trey – I agree with you KK needs to go more than Six innings, that has nothing to do with run support or whatever – he’s pitch count gets up high cause he’s not that good.
GTSteve
June 21st, 2010
4:02 pm
Whether he really sux or just has bad luck, it is time to get him out of the rotation….peoples luck doesn’t just change
Trey
June 21st, 2010
4:02 pm
Braves One – That he is a man of character. That is one thing I admire about Japan as a whole. To Japanese honor and integrity is a major part of every day life. I do like him as a person, but I can’t sugar coat things, he sucks as a MLB pitcher. He’d definitely be a good candidate for the Roberto Clemente award, depending on what he does during his off time.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
4:02 pm
is30303- everyone on the board who’s had negative comments about KK all also have negative views about japanese people in general. i wanted to let you know this is clearly an anti-asian conspiracy. all of us white guys are sitting in a room together up in Marietta and we’re making squinty-eye jokes. gimme a break, man.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
4:02 pm
Trey – Lowe has one more quality start than KK and has also started one more game than KK.
eagle1
June 21st, 2010
4:02 pm
In the end, the situation with Kawakami will have as much to do with “PR” as anything. There was a lot of “recruiting” involved before the Kawakami signing. Signing Kawakami had as much to do with building up goodwill, blah, blah, blah, – in hopes of singing future Japanese stars to come to Atlanta, as it did with signing a middle of the rotation pitcher. All of this may make a Kawakami trade more difficult for Wren (and the fact that he pretty much stinks right now).
When you are in themiddle of a pennant race, POLITICS AND SALARY ISSUES have to be put aside. If Medlen and Blanco are putting up better results than the higher priced Kawakami and McClouth, then they MUST play!!!!!
Ryan
June 21st, 2010
4:03 pm
Put him in the pen, some starts he is decent, so maybe he can figure out what is wrong in the bullpen. It’s a matter of time before someone else gets hurt (or Derek Lowe implodes again) and Kawakami is certainly a better option than Jo Jo Reyes.
The Ghost of Greg Norton
June 21st, 2010
4:03 pm
I’ve possessed McLouth.
nickindenver
June 21st, 2010
4:05 pm
is 4.78 really all that bad for a FIFTH starter? doesn’t he have like 4/5 quality starts?
is30303
June 21st, 2010
4:05 pm
MitchFarted – hey man, i wasn’t saying everyone leaves racist comments – you usually got a sense of humor on these boards but you got to admit, there are many who use race as their primary argument against KK but ignore Saito.
Ph.D.
June 21st, 2010
4:07 pm
Thanks for writing back, Jeff; I appreciate that. When I raised the issue about being selfish or not, I am pointing out that Kawakami has a good, team attitude and solid work ethic. Like everyone on the team now. Especially Hinkse, Heyward and Hudson. That has not always been the case, and for that matter, with any hundred million dollar roster. I think that Kawakami will go to the pen, and will contribute there. He will get another shot at starting too, and it’s good to have him as a surplus option. I do think that he will make a rebound too, in future. But the larger point is this: attitude, determination, and selflessness go a long way on teams. Diversity does too, and I am proud that the Braves now boast a diverse set of batters and pitchers with a wealth of experience and viewpoints. Kawakami will learn from this and make a good comeback, I’m certain. So I don’t say sayonara: I say put him in the pen for now, and let him work out his issues. He’s a solid pitcher that has had a tough time of it, but so have many of these Braves but they surprisingly have come back, and gelled. The Braves, as constituted, don’t need to send anybody to the dump. And I understand, really, your points; I just would appreciate a less hard and fast perspective that bashes someone when they are clearly down. Show us more, for example, what these players are and how they are thinking about their slumps, instead of digits and salaries. I’d love to know more about Mclouth’s problems, for example. Or where did Hinkse’s charisma come from…
Trey
June 21st, 2010
4:07 pm
Techman – I never said anything about Lowe. I think Lowe sucks, but he can at least give up few enough runs before getting taken out so we can win.
Braves One
June 21st, 2010
4:08 pm
Ryan … great blog … you are right on.
is30303
June 21st, 2010
4:08 pm
i’m done posting on Schultz blog
Send KK to the minors or the pen.
I don’t care what happens to KK as long as the Braves win
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
4:09 pm
KK is not getting the same support the other pitchers get. On a per 9 average Hudson gets 7.70 runs, Hanson gets 8.93, Lowe gets 8.42, and Kawakami gets 5.73. This is a major difference. Additionally Kawakami has given up 0 runs in 63% of the innings he has thrown, the Braves put up goose eggs themselves in 79% of those same innings. This means that when he is shutting the other team down completely, the Braves themselves are being shut down even more.
Kawakami rarely gets to pitch with a lead (and even less of the time with a multiple run lead) and has only given up 3 or more runs in an inning 3 times this year.
gdawginkalamazoo
June 21st, 2010
4:09 pm
Besides, it really doesn’t matter. The Yankees are going to win it all again anyway. They are already making the rings and parade plans. So what difference does it make if you yank the kid or not?
cheshire
June 21st, 2010
4:09 pm
Techman, believe me, i’m far being a Derek Lowe fan. I hate the fact that we are paying either of those guys what we are paying them. And a couple of weeks ago, i was saying send Lowe to the bullpen.
Their ERA’s may be comparable, but the difference between them is that Kawakami is constantly pitching to the level that his offense is playing. If his offense doesn’t score much, he doesn’t give up many runs. If his offense gives up 4 runs, he immediately gives up 4 runs. Yes, Lowe has been more fortunate than Kawakami in run support, but the difference is that when he gets it, he’s better at keeping it and not giving it right back to the other team.
It’s almost as if Kawakami does what’s needed to keep his team in the game, but doesn’t ever do what’s needed to win it. And that’s the problem. Lowe is sometimes guilty of the same thing, but not always… there are times where he’s given a lead and maintains it. With Kawakami, it’s almost become a foregone conclusion that he won’t maintain it. He’s pitched well in some games, but only when it’s been necessary to keep us in the game. And usually that shouldn’t be a criticism, but here it is, because occassionally he needs to work with what he’s given and actually win instead of just keeping it close.
Again, i’m not crazy about either of them, but you can’t put a guy out there who you are almost certainly won’t pitch well enough to win. Kawakami is yet to show he can do that. I don’t know if he just gets relaxed and loses intensity when he gets runs or what, but something isn’t clicking up there.
But again, this isn’t one of those arguments where i think it’s a clear cut black and white. If you prefer him to Lowe, i can understand why.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
4:10 pm
IS30303- When you accuse people of being racists for criticizing a minority who is clearly underperforming, you have officially “pulled out the race card”. There are are still areas of society where racism still exists, but baseball isn’t one of them. Throwing around the term racism in this context diminishes the value of the word itself. You need to think more carefully about when you make those accusations.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
4:11 pm
LookDeeperAtStats – The run support thing means nothing. Hudson can get less run support and still win. He averages 2-3 runs a game. Hanson and Medlen always pitch quality. You can not always depend on a lot of run support to win. You are trying to avoid the fact that KK is awful.
TROTTINGHOME
June 21st, 2010
4:13 pm
Its time to end the jeff schultz experiment then…I like kamakami…say what you want about the record…its heart that wins in the end and he will win…with the Braves.
CanHewitt
June 21st, 2010
4:15 pm
MitchFarted, I dont’ think IS30303 is accusing you or anyone who are criticizing of being racists. Someone actually typed in a racial slur to insult Kawakami.
Chip Caray's Eyebrows
June 21st, 2010
4:15 pm
This argument has been driven into the ground the past few weeks. JJ can’t get back soon enough to end this discussion.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
4:15 pm
TROTTINGHOME – “its heart that wins in the end”
Well he hasn’t won in the end, yet.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
4:16 pm
Thanks CanHewitt. I suspected as much and even went back through historical posts just to make sure, but I didn’t see anything.
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
4:16 pm
Cheshire- you may be on to something, but I think that is more opinion than factual. In fact it doesn’t make sense in some situations. Take for example the 50 innings he didn’t give up a single run. In those innings he didn’t do “just enough”, he did the maximum possible. It is not his fault that the Braves (his fault when he batted, true) couldn’t “play up” to his performance. Also his performance with a lead is such a small sample size, as his offense rarely gives him that luxury.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
4:16 pm
TROTTINGHOME – What you just said is crap. Skill is what wins. He has no skill to get batters out.