It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment
Bobby Cox took the ball from Kenshin Kawakami Sunday -- but why give it back?
So I stood by Bobby Cox Sunday when he said he didn’t want to talk about any future decisions regarding Kenshin Kawakami, though he added, “He’ll make his next start.” Why? By default. Jair Jurrjens has at least another week of rehab left.
And then I stood by Kenshin Kawakami as he deflected no criticism (a commendable character trait of his) and said of possibly losing his starting job: “I haven’t thought about that much. But being a starter, I’m not really doing my job right now, so I’m ready for anything that is coming.”
Loading ...Kawakami is baseball’s only $23 million fifth starter. He also has the distinction of being 0-9 for a first-place team. Only three other pitchers in the majors have lost as many games: Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez (3-10), Cleveland’s David Huff (2-9) and former Brave, now of Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton (1-9).
The Indians are in last place. The Pirates are in last place. The Astros are one-half game ahead of the Pirates. See where I’m going with this?
Yes, Kawakami has received little run support in some starts but that hasn’t really been the case of late. He was handed a 4-0 lead Sunday against Kansas City and promptly doused it with gasoline and lit a match to it. He also committed his third error in his last two starts.
Further — and this is where all of those, “Oh, stop picking on him, meanie; don’t you know the Braves don’t score for him?” arguments fall apart — Kawakami’s ERA is 4.78.
Once again, because some of his defenders ignore this number: 4.78. That is the worst ERA on the staff among active pitchers, save reliever Jesse Chavez (7.33), who doesn’t really count. Kawakami also is yielding the most hits per nine innings (10.2), has allowed the most home runs (nine) and, it follows, the highest slugging percentage (.478).
Stop the madness.
If Jurrjens is cleared following his next start at Gwinnett, this should be an easy decision for Cox: Keep Kris Medlen (3-0, 3.67 as a starter) in the rotation and put Kawakami in the bullpen. Granted, middle relief is not what general manager Frank Wren projected when he gave Kawakami a contract for over $7 million per year. But Kawakami has shown an ability to strike people out. So maybe there’s something to salvage from this.
Think of it as salvaging the rear bumper after a front-end collision.
I can pretty much guess which way sentiment is going on this. I’ve got a poll up also. Let me hear ya.
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495 comments Add your comment
Adam West
June 21st, 2010
2:55 pm
Sure, because Seattle would want to trade Lee for an 0-9 pitcher with approx 12 million still owed and a CF who cant hit his weight in the NL. That sounds like thier ticket out of last place.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
2:55 pm
Wes- You are wrong to suggest that Lowe is our #1. Cox’ decision to let him start opening day had more to do with fixing the rift that had developed in the offseason with Braves mgmt. trying to trade him and him getting pissed off. You’ll see when the playoffs start, Lowe will not be #1. This rotation is Hudson & Hanson and everybody else. In both a 5 game series and a 7 game series, the rotation will be put in place so that Hudson and Hanson will pitch twice before anyone else pitched twice.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
2:59 pm
Techman- Pls go grab some intestinal engineers from North Avenue and cook me up some antacid for this gas.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:00 pm
The five man rotation is just fine. It’s the way American ball has been played for years. If he can not conform to American ball with the five man rotation, we do not have to keep him. Let our pitchers get more starts and rack up more victories. I do not think we should have a six man rotation just so KK can stay in our pitching rotation, he needs to get out.
Wes
June 21st, 2010
3:00 pm
I’m not talkin about PLAYOFFS. You’re opening day starter is your #1 in the rotation the rest of the season, baring injuries. That’s it, nothing more to be said on the subject. Same holds true for every team.
Wes
June 21st, 2010
3:01 pm
wow i wrote “you’re”
i’m an idiot
Betting Baseball Coaching Club » Book Review
June 21st, 2010
3:03 pm
[...] ‘Sayonara’ to Kawakami, please Bobby Cox took the ball from Kenshin Kawakami Sunday — but why give it back? So I stood by Bobby Cox Sunday when he said he didn’t want to talk about any future decisions regarding Kenshin Kawakami , though he added, “He’ll make his next start.” Why? By default. [...]
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:05 pm
Sorry Wes. Lowe has faced – Zambrano, Wellemeyer, Hammel, Moyer (twice), Carpenter, Norris, Gallardo, Pelfrey, Morton, Duke, Kendrick, Haren, Blackburn & Bannister.
KK has faced Lincecum, Jimenez, Maine, Garcia, Hernandez, Hamels, Kennedy (twice), Harang, Sanchez, Maholm, Kershaw, Price & Davies.
Feel free to compare. KK has faced 2 pitchers w/ an ERA under 2, 5 w/ ERA under 3, and 11 under 4.
Lowe has faced no one w/ an ERA under 2, 3 w/ ERA under 3 and the same 3 pitchers with an ERA under 4.
No matter how many times you want to say it, Lowe ain’t going up against aces.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
3:05 pm
Wes- According your logic, Roger Clemens wouldnt’ have been considered the ACE of the Yankees teams that he played for when started mid-season. I hope you see the giant holes in your logic now. J Schultz- Please chime in here with your thoughts on who is the Braves Ace and what is your planned rotation for a 5 game playoff series. I think it might be: Hudson, Hanson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hudson.
Jim Pierce
June 21st, 2010
3:05 pm
In reference to Kawi’s 7 mil contract: The Braves have a total payroll of approx. 90 Million. It is the job of management to move players around to make that team more efficient. Paying kawi 7 mil to fail as a starter, versus paying him 7 mil to “not be an auto loser” accomplishes the goal of WINNING. Regardless of where Kawi is placed, the overall payroll of 90 mil doesn’t change. Just the win total of the team. lol
Medlin
June 21st, 2010
3:07 pm
Trey, good point. Lets extend the rotation so KK can get some work in? Other starters needs the work, too much time off in between.
Wes
June 21st, 2010
3:08 pm
Clemens sucked as a yankee
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:08 pm
Just so I can make one of those stats hit home:
Derek Lowe has faced 3 pitchers with ERAs under 4.
KK has faced 11 pitchers with ERAs under 4.
If you don’t think that makes a difference, then I don’t know what to say.
richtfan
June 21st, 2010
3:09 pm
troy glaus turns out to be good.
kk turns out to be horrible.
you win some and lose some. nobody is going to give you anything for kk with his track record, so you cut bait.
Wes
June 21st, 2010
3:09 pm
and was never the ‘ace’ of any yankee staff he pitched on
Chuck
June 21st, 2010
3:10 pm
The truth is that when Jair returns, someone is going to have to move out of the rotation. Medlin was the guy who stepped in when JJ went on the DL. Medlin has performed. Hanson has performed. Hudson has performed. Lowe has performed. KK has not. KK as to move.
Fire Frank Wren
June 21st, 2010
3:11 pm
Techman it is the opposing batting average that seperates the two. Also, KK has no out pitch other than the curve which is iffy. D Lowe has a wicked splitter when it is working. The difference in KK and D Lowe is the game to game variance. If D Lowe is on he gives you innings and a chance to win. KK never gives you anything but heart burn. D. Lowe’s ERA is up because of a few bad games and KK’s performances are average all the time. Also D Lowe eats up alot more innings. KK is averaging 5 innings per outing, by far the worst on the staff.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:11 pm
J Wood — Can’t imagine what KK is going through. He does seem like a good guy but, agreed, he must be a mess right now.
Matt the Brave
June 21st, 2010
3:11 pm
Hey Schultzie, do you think that the Braves will make any sort of trade moves by the deadline?
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:12 pm
Trey — Thanks.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:12 pm
RGP — If he goes to minors, he better be buying dinner on the road.
CanHewitt
June 21st, 2010
3:13 pm
Wes, Clemens won Cy Young with Yankees in 2001.
Medlin
June 21st, 2010
3:14 pm
When the BRAVES play the NATS would KK (obviously, will not be in the rotation) had to face Strausburg? I think he’s a #5. Maybe, we can see how great a pitcher MadDog Medlin will be.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:14 pm
Medlen — Answer: Not any better under Leo.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:15 pm
DMac — Haha. I’m not called fresh air every day. Sometimes, exhaust. Thanks.
McCann Fan
June 21st, 2010
3:15 pm
I’m just upset I “get” to see his last start against the Tigers on Saturday. We already have tickets bought in a package in February. Maybe Bobby and Wren will stick him in the bullpen before then. Please!!!!!!!!!!
LookDeeperAtStats
June 21st, 2010
3:15 pm
KK is clearly not a top tier pitcher, but he is more than serviceable as a 5th starter. The attacks on him seem to be tied to three things. First, we are winning so we look to optimize even further. Second, KK has zero wins. Third, his money (and other factors) make it seem like he is under-performing.
A closer look tells a different story, one that Bobby saw when he made the statement “For the first time since he’s been with us, he just didn’t have it.” Also a closer look does show that Lowe and Kawakami are freakishly similar this season to date.
KK is not getting the same support the other pitchers get. On a per 9 average Hudson gets 7.70 runs, Hanson gets 8.93, Lowe gets 8.42, and Kawakami gets 5.73. This is a major difference. Additionally Kawakami has given up 0 runs in 63% of the innings he has thrown, the Braves put up goose eggs themselves in 79% of those same innings. This means that when he is shutting the other team down completely, the Braves themselves are being shut down even more.
Kawakami rarely gets to pitch with a lead (and even less of the time with a multiple run lead) and has only given up 3 or more runs in an inning 3 times this year.
You can argue that the Braves don’t rally behind him and that is why their half of the equation is low, but the opposite could be argued for Kawakami. Maybe it is harder to pitch from behind or put up scoreless innings over and over with no run support?
Lowe comparison coming next.
P Hubbard
June 21st, 2010
3:16 pm
I think we’ve been misspelling his name all this time. Shouldn’t it be Kamikazi, not Kawakawi? Because he sure is doing a pretty good impression of a diver-bomber, doing what he can to sabotage the Brave’s 2010 season. The Braves just need to bite the bullet, and send this impostor of a pitcher back Japan, where he belongs.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:16 pm
GTSteve — 6 man rotation is not happening, nor does it make sense. Why give fewer starts to Hudson and Hanson?
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:16 pm
Fire Frank Wren – you are telling me Lowe is a better pitcher b/c of opponents’ BA & innings pitched.
OBA: KK: 285; DLowe: 269
Average IP: KK 5.36; DLowe 5.8
That’s the difference? I’m a little surprised you wouldn’t bring up WHIP, which would be a much more effective # than OBA. Lowe’s is 1.46, KK’s 1.42.
If that’s what you want to make your argument, feel free to stand on it.
I don’t like the QS stat but Lowe has one more QS than KK. He’s also started one more than KK. None of your arguments really prove anything.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:17 pm
Tokyo Rose — Don’t be stupid. You try something like that again and you’re banned.
Marvin Freeman
June 21st, 2010
3:18 pm
I still got a little gas fellas. Send KK packing and bring me back. I can throw BP just as good as KK. I will do it for far less than Franky paid KK.
Heywardville Knockahoma
June 21st, 2010
3:18 pm
You guys are crazy.
Kenshin is a GREAT Pitcher. Played pretty well last year and sported a nice ERA for #5 Starter. I think he’s has some serious bad luck and maybe now his confidence is starting to take a toll.
Let him start once more, pull him for Medlen when JJ gets back and go from there. Let him work in the pen and work with Roger and throw him back in there when you guys are blogging about the next Starter not carrying his weight.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:19 pm
Mitch — If Jurrjens is healthy, you could slide him ahead of Lowe. But Hudson-Hanson definitely 1-2 in my book.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:19 pm
Schultz, out of curiosity, why does the 6 man not make sense? Too many arms tied up in the starting rotation? too long of rest so the pitchers are not crisp? I don’t care either way, I was just wondering the draw backs of it.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
3:19 pm
Still waiting on Schultz’s thoughts on who starts each game of a 5 game playoff series and in what order.
eric the elder
June 21st, 2010
3:19 pm
Sending KK back to Japan might not be far-fetched. Consider:
Kawakami was the Rookie of the Year in 1998 as he went 14-6 with a 2.57 ERA. He helped the Dragons to the Central League Title in 1999, but would lose in the Japan Series in 5 games to the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks. He has pitched a no-hitter in his professional career. In 2004, Kawakami went 17-7 and led Chunichi to the Central League Title, though they fell to the Seibu Lions in 7 games in the Japan Series. That year, Kawakami was named Central League MVP and received the Eiji Sawamura Award as Japan’s best pitcher. Kawakami again won 17 games in 2006 and led the Dragons to the Central League title again, winning Game 1 of the Japan Series against the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. (Source: Wikipedia.)
Although he looks younger, he is 35 years old. Even so, there might be a Japanese team ready to take him back.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:20 pm
Matt The Brave — They’ll do something, yes, but don’t know how significant. I think there’s going to be a lot of players available because of economics.
coach joe
June 21st, 2010
3:20 pm
Wow. Why so negative. We have the best record in the National League…a season beyond our wildest imaginations, and yet people continue to be nagative on this blog..I don’t get it.
Bobby is doing a great job, Wren put together a great team and we all need to sit back and enjoy it.
jacket3
June 21st, 2010
3:20 pm
JS – good story. ‘Bout damn time. How many starts has KK had? Then the no decisions and the no wins? This guy is a bust big time! Can’t win anything with 2 or 3 pitchers. Lowe has been real lucky….Hudson is having his best year since Oakland.
Medlen is hungry-good but needs at least another pitch in his portfolio. JJ has been so-so in AAA.
On the other hand…glad to see our hometown hero “Mr. 3rd Base” finally getting wood on the ball and not splinters in his…and Glaus and Melkey popping. Heyward is just good and we were lucky.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:21 pm
you didn’t ask me but I’ve got Hudson, Hanson, & Jurrgens, repeat. However, I would be willing to bet Cox puts Lowe in there.
Marvin Freeman
June 21st, 2010
3:21 pm
Heywardville Knockahoma – Kenshin is a great pitcher? Have you been watching what we have? What he does for 7 mil don’t seem to great for me.
MitchFarted
June 21st, 2010
3:21 pm
And Jeff, we both know my earlier comments about the Kawasaki 4 wheeler promotions at AA Mississippi were solid gold. I don’t know why you won’t admit that was funny.
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:21 pm
Medlen – Thanks for agreeing. I personally believe six man rotation is not good, it will cut the good starters games in half. No other starter is struggling with a five man rotation, I don’t believe we should accommodate for Kawakami just because he can not play American ball. Just move him to the bull pen or to Gwinnett or Rome just to get some experience. However, we should not have a six man rotation.
Fire Frank Wren
June 21st, 2010
3:21 pm
Look Deeper must be KK or relative. He and a few others (also friends or relatives) are delusional. Do you think any other team in baseball would want KK? Of course not.
Jeff Schultz
June 21st, 2010
3:23 pm
Techman — Like I said, you want to give Hudson and Hanson as many starts as possible. Going to a 6-man rotation will give them fewer starts, to say nothing of throwing off every pitcher’s timing. And for what, to get an 0-9 pitcher into the rotation?
Chip Shot
June 21st, 2010
3:23 pm
any news on schafer schultz? will he be called up now that infante is back?
Trey
June 21st, 2010
3:23 pm
Heyward – Who cares how he pitched last season? The fact is, he can’t hold a lead even if we have four runs for him to work with. He is 0-9 and should have been 0-10, luckily Bobby took him out. He has no Major League talent and can not hold a lead. He is just crap and needs to go.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
3:24 pm
Fire Frank Wren, if you cut KK’s salary to 3 or 4 mil, I think 75% of baseball would want him. And if you consider the salaries, I would speculate every team would take him over Lowe.
ArkyTech
June 21st, 2010
3:24 pm
Jeff, you are a COMPLETE idiot. KK’s ERA is the same as Derek Lowe’s. Should we end the “Lowe experiment”, too? Are you still calling for an end to the “Glaus experiment?” Going into yesterday’s game KK had a LOWER ERA than Kris Medlen over their past 6 starts. Yet you see Medlen as the next great young pitcher on this staff.
You may not know enough about baseball to write an intelligent column on this subject, but you should have better journalistic integrity than to present half-truths to back up your claims. You compared KK to other pitchers with bad records on bad teams, yet conveniently left out the fact that KK’s ERA is nowhere near as high (Rod 6.09, Huff 6.04, Morton 9.35).
Lowe and KK have the same ERA. Lowe has 9 wins, KK has 0. Therefore KK is garbage and Lowe is a solid member of a great pitching staff. Brilliant.