It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment
Bobby Cox took the ball from Kenshin Kawakami Sunday -- but why give it back?
So I stood by Bobby Cox Sunday when he said he didn’t want to talk about any future decisions regarding Kenshin Kawakami, though he added, “He’ll make his next start.” Why? By default. Jair Jurrjens has at least another week of rehab left.
And then I stood by Kenshin Kawakami as he deflected no criticism (a commendable character trait of his) and said of possibly losing his starting job: “I haven’t thought about that much. But being a starter, I’m not really doing my job right now, so I’m ready for anything that is coming.”
Loading ...Kawakami is baseball’s only $23 million fifth starter. He also has the distinction of being 0-9 for a first-place team. Only three other pitchers in the majors have lost as many games: Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez (3-10), Cleveland’s David Huff (2-9) and former Brave, now of Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton (1-9).
The Indians are in last place. The Pirates are in last place. The Astros are one-half game ahead of the Pirates. See where I’m going with this?
Yes, Kawakami has received little run support in some starts but that hasn’t really been the case of late. He was handed a 4-0 lead Sunday against Kansas City and promptly doused it with gasoline and lit a match to it. He also committed his third error in his last two starts.
Further — and this is where all of those, “Oh, stop picking on him, meanie; don’t you know the Braves don’t score for him?” arguments fall apart — Kawakami’s ERA is 4.78.
Once again, because some of his defenders ignore this number: 4.78. That is the worst ERA on the staff among active pitchers, save reliever Jesse Chavez (7.33), who doesn’t really count. Kawakami also is yielding the most hits per nine innings (10.2), has allowed the most home runs (nine) and, it follows, the highest slugging percentage (.478).
Stop the madness.
If Jurrjens is cleared following his next start at Gwinnett, this should be an easy decision for Cox: Keep Kris Medlen (3-0, 3.67 as a starter) in the rotation and put Kawakami in the bullpen. Granted, middle relief is not what general manager Frank Wren projected when he gave Kawakami a contract for over $7 million per year. But Kawakami has shown an ability to strike people out. So maybe there’s something to salvage from this.
Think of it as salvaging the rear bumper after a front-end collision.
I can pretty much guess which way sentiment is going on this. I’ve got a poll up also. Let me hear ya.
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495 comments Add your comment
MitchC
June 21st, 2010
10:37 pm
Jeff, I’ve been saying what you just wrote for a few weeks now. Bottom line, KK is awful. The Braves aren’t a team that will be satisfied with a 500 season. This is a team that wants to win a division title, or, at least, a wild card. With the rest of the team we have, we are more than capable of doing so. We simply cannot have a guy who is 0-9 in mid June, and who we know is likely going to lose every fifth day, in our rotation.
Kris Medlen has earned the spot to be a fifth starter. He’s pitched very well. Jair is one of our best, when healthy, so, Bobby should not hesitate with this move.
Hopefully, when JJ comes back, Kenshin will end up in the bullpen.
Chuck
June 21st, 2010
10:54 pm
Should Derek Lowe sit? Before his last start, Kawakami’s ERA was better than Lowe’s. Yet Lowe has won 8 or 9 games because of run support. KK has pitched well enough to warrant still being out there and they do have the luxury of being in first place. With any luck at all, he would be about 5-4 and we wouldn’t be having this conversation. There is a reason Bobby has managed 29 years and won 15 division titles. He is the most patient man since Job. That quality pays off in the long run in the performance of players. The same people who want KK down are the same ones who couldn’t wait for Glaus to be benched. In 91 Smoltz lost like 10 or 11 of his first 12 decisions and then did the complete opposite in the second half. I’m not saying KK is another Smoltz, very few are, but he is more than a capable pitcher who will pay huge dividends down the line if still given the chance. By the way, 9 home runs given up at this stage is not that bad. Pitcher who make 30 or more starts give up at least 20 or more homers per year. To bring up that stat is ridiculous.
techdweeb
June 21st, 2010
10:57 pm
You’d think one of you guys with all the answers, including you Schultz, would discuss how Jurrjens is pitching now. JJ’s not such a sure thing right now. He was 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in five games this year before he got hurt. He just gave up two runs on eight hits over 4.1 innings on Saturday in Gwinnett. Medlen is not exactly ready for the Hall yet either, so I wouldn’t be in such a rush to get rid of KK yet. He’s got more experience than any starter except Lowe and Hudson. The whole staff (with the exception of Hudson, who’s been hurt before) has been shaky at best this year, so the more the merrier. Cox’s not going to get rid of someone like KK and have to go with a possible four man rotation in July, so wise up and let Bobby run the team. KK’s not going anywhere except maybe to middle relief until the next injury happens.
reason
June 21st, 2010
11:02 pm
Will Kenshin Kawakami be the first starter in major league history, not to win a single game in a single season. One can’t act like a politician and play the blaming game. This man won’t be able to show his face in his home country if he doesn’t win at lease one game. If he loses the next game either put him in the bullpen or release him.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
11:03 pm
jhughes – I would love to research but that took a while so I’m sort of over it now. I did look up Hudson’s losses and it was against the aces which tells me that your probably going to lose to aces. I’m not trying to be demeaning but the reason KK does not get run support is very simple to me. The pitchers he faces are 1.5 runs better a game than the pitchers Lowe faces.
I understand your argument that he’s making dough so he should produce but Lowe is making double than him and the only reason he’s winning games is he’s getting extraordinary run support. If you’re ok with that, fine, but it might balance out at some point.
The guy’s getting a bad rap b/c he just made a bad start. As mentioned earlier, he has been our 2nd best pitcher over the last 6 weeks. I think even Hanson’s ERA has been over 4 during that period.
Techman
June 21st, 2010
11:05 pm
also someone asked – I believe the braves are 4-10 in KK’s starts. I think they’re 10-5 in Lowe’s starts but I haven’t looked that up recently.
StrikeOut
June 21st, 2010
11:47 pm
Hey – Howbout we leave him in the starting rotation till he gets a win. No matter how long it takes, even if we have to resign him for 5 more years….. Thats what I’m talkin bout.
Robards
June 22nd, 2010
12:05 am
Schultz, I’m not going to scroll through all the comments but KK has been as effective as Lowe, right? I mean, he’d have a bunch of wins if he was getting 8 runs a game, correct? Medlen has pitched better, but maybe KK instead of Lowe, even if Lowe is on pace to win almost 20, right? I think that’s fair assessment. Perhaps you should write about KK when he doesn’t give up any runs, like on May 19 or June 9. Or, you could write about Lowe and his 9 wins, despite giving up about the same number of runs as a 0-game winner.
TONE-TONE
June 22nd, 2010
12:27 am
HEY! MAYBE WE CAN TRADE KK-DIAZ-MCCLOUTH AND CHAVEZ TO THE NATIONALS FOR STRASBERG! WASHINGTON LOVES STIFFS.
Jeff
June 22nd, 2010
12:27 am
Good lord, why are Tech fans the only people trying to make arguments for KEEPING Kawakami in a Braves uniform? Geez, I know they are not all that football-savvy, but c’mon…
Fact: For whatever reason, KK loses games when he’s on the mound.
Fact: As one poster said on this blog, one or two games can make a difference down the stretch in a playoff run, and I personally don’t want KK near the mound in ANY more Atlanta Braves games — we can’t risk losing every 5th day.
Fact: Yeah, Frank Wren paid way too much for this guy, but sometimes you learn from mistakes and have to suck it up — even if it IS $23 million.
Fact: The Braves have some quality arms in the minor league system, plus JJ coming back in the next week or two… by July, there won’t and SHOULDN’T be any room for KK, either as a starter or reliever.
Fact: I guarantee you we could trade him to SOMEBODY, even if it’s a minor leaguer… heck, some losing team somewhere might think he’s got a good arm and just needs a fesh start. At this point, I’ll take prospects for KK.
Fact: For those of you DEFENDING Kawakami, I’ll say this: if the Braves were in a must-win game, right now, I think I would take ANY of our Atlanta starters to run out there and pitch EXCEPT Kawakami. And another thing for you KK supporters: He had a 4-0 lead AT HOME AGAINST THE ROYALS on Sunday and STILL couldn’t win! What’s gonna happen in a tight, must-win road game in Philly or New York or St. Louis or San Diego in September???
Sorry, KK, you’re a nice guy, but you belong in an organization like the Pirates or Astros right now, NOT with Atlanta. Good luck.
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June 22nd, 2010
12:32 am
[...] ♦ It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment [...]
All aboard the Hey-Train
June 22nd, 2010
1:49 am
Not all of KK’s losses/ND have been all his fault. Yesterday and the one before were, but of the starting 5 he has been getting the worst run support. Don’t get me wrong I want Medlen over KK, but it’s not like he’s giving up 10 runs and 26 hits day in day out. Medlen’s also part of the future which is why it seemed Bobby was sacrificing a few wins here and there to get Medlen the all important experience. And the way he’s pitching this year, it certainly has paid off.
yogi2
June 22nd, 2010
4:47 am
time for Kenshin K,jesse Chavez and Nate Mc LOuth to move on. FRank Wren and Schouholtz must believe in the Easter Bunny. These guys are not
preforming as expected. They must go now, they are detrimental to the team. Management must admit their mistakes and move forward
Don
June 22nd, 2010
9:09 am
Amen, relating to Kawakami, Mr. Shultz.
But like always, it takes Bobby Cox months to make a needed change that is obvious to everyone.
Remember, it took him two years to finally, fianlly decide to start playing Prado as a regular when the other guy was not producing and everyone knew that Prado needed to be in the lineup.
And this year, it took him 1/4 of the season and through a 9 game losing streak to ever decide to give Hinske some playing time when two of his outfielders (at that time) were producing nothing.
Same story on given Infante playing time in the outfield – and he still isn’t doing much of this.
When these things are so obvious to everyone.
Also, this year, he has kept Chipper in the third spot in the batting order when he has beeen hitting in the low .200s most of the time for the last two years with very low RBI production for a 3rd place hitter.
Don
June 22nd, 2010
9:11 am
Is it true that for all the players in the entire Braves minor league system – that there are only 3 guys hitting over .300??
BravesFan
June 22nd, 2010
9:32 am
I don’t argue that KK is better than Medlen – Kris can flat out deal. But KK’s certainly not as bad as all of you make him out to be. Everyone seems to forget that he posted a sub-4.00 ERA last year. And as far as the whole “can’t pitch in the clutch” argument, remember how many times he stepped last year against the likes of Roy Halladay? Anyway, I’m torn – while I want Medlen in the rotation, he was really valuable in the pen. With Saito back, if you plug Medlen in the pen too to replace two of Martinez, Kimbrel, and Chavez, all of a sudden you have 6 guys out there who can pitch at any point with the game on the line. Bobby loves to use 3-4 guys repeatedly until they’ve made 80 appearances, but with a 38 year old closer coming off of Tommy John surgery and a 40 year set-up man, having another reliable arm in the bullpen could be really valuable…
Dr. C. S. Otto
June 22nd, 2010
10:35 am
I definitely agree. In fact I didn’t think him as much of pitcher when they first acquired him and wondered why they gave him so much money. Definitely keep Melton as a starer. Dr. Otto
Dorothy Davis
June 22nd, 2010
11:30 am
Oh hell yeh, just put KK in the Pen…thats what we need: A reliever that comes in and gives up runs and commits errors. Time for the management to admit they were WRONG! They overpaid for a pitcher that was not ready for American Major League. Hello? They could have 2 good relivers and another starter (that can cut it) for what they paid him. We do make mistakes, right?
Don
June 22nd, 2010
11:31 am
Granted, his ERA is not terrible. But once in a great while there seems to be a pitcher who has a fair ERA but has the knack of being just bad enough to lose the game whatever the situation.
Don
June 22nd, 2010
11:33 am
With Mclouth on the DL and Melky starting to hit a bit and the really bad relief pitchers moved off the roster, it must be frustrating to Booby not to have an ineffective relief pitcher and an outfielder hitting nothing on the roster – to keep running out there.
Line Drive
June 22nd, 2010
12:06 pm
Do we keep starting KaKa because of all of the money invested in him? Do you think Cox is being ordered to leave him in the starting rotation to earn his salary? I mean, what gives here? The Braves are acting like a gambling addict who continues to chase his losses. Maybe some team in Japan wants this guy back…..just chalk him up as a loss, his contract and his next start
BravesFan
June 22nd, 2010
12:08 pm
Venters had mixed success as a starter in the minors. He stays in the pen.
Some Intelligent insight
June 22nd, 2010
12:31 pm
In all seriousness let’s break this down. Let us not argue about who we should keep Lowe or Kawakami, Lowe is not going anywhere and anyone on this blog with half a brain would pick Lowe to start a game over K.K. Now let us get to the important part which is why this article was written. We have an extra starter when Jair comes off the D.L. Bottom line is, we trade K.K. and we eat the money. We attempt to get whatever we can (player wise) whether it be a major league bat, a bullpen guy or eve a single A player. Medlen has been outstanding and deserves the fifth spot and in the event he or someone else goes down we have Resop to be the fifth. Even if we eat 75% of K.k’s contract we are still saving money and getting a player so this seems to be a no brainer. I personally think it is more of a waste of money to have a guy earning 9 million a year in the bullpen then paying him 7 million to wake and getting something in return.
BravesFan
June 22nd, 2010
12:42 pm
I’d rather have Kawakami as the sixth starter than Resop any day.
Timmy
June 22nd, 2010
1:11 pm
Timmy!
Mark
June 22nd, 2010
1:38 pm
What a stupid article.
KK is a fifth starter and is pitching like a fifth starter, some good games, some not so good.
Problem is pitching against the other team’s #1 or #2 in almost all of his games (he has only faced one pitcher with a ERA higher than 3.80, which is probably why the Braves don’t score with him on the mound – he was the losing pitcher against a no-hitter…).
This means the Braves other pitchers are lining up against inferior pitchers (i.e. Braves 1 against their 2, Braves 2 against their 3, etc.) which is advantage Braves.
Maybe why the rest of the staff is doing so well?????? Hmmmmmmm…..
NATHANBUFORD
June 22nd, 2010
2:00 pm
comparing KK/ era is like comparing fire/water. ERA does not mean you are a godd pitcher/bad pitcher. how the team plays behind you is what counts. KK goes out , makes horrible pitches/ error himself, team gets inattentative, 4-5 runs are on board. TIME TO END KK EXPERIMENT/WHATEVER THAT WAS.
Techman
June 22nd, 2010
3:06 pm
Mark – logic is not very welcome here. be careful.
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June 22nd, 2010
3:31 pm
[...] ♦ It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment [...]
Zack
June 22nd, 2010
3:32 pm
Here we go again.. Jeff Schultz being an idiot on his own blog. Always using ERA to prove your points.Let me give you the real reason as to why Kawakami is 0 – 9. Let’s break it down month by month:
April: Kawakami faced Tim Lincecum, Jimenez (Who threw a no hitter), Hisinori Takahashi, and Jamie Garcia. Of those 4 starters, Takahashi has the lowest ERA (3.13), which on most ball clubs would be the ace of the rotation. Kawakami’s record : 0 – 4.
May: He lost to Livan Hernandez (2.94 ERA, which makes him a top pitcher this year even if we all know he isn’t), Cole Hamels (the first non-ace Kawakami faced, although Hamels is a solid second starter), and Anibal Sanchez (3.22 ERA, good for the top spot on most teams).
His three no decisions in May came against the likes of Ian Kennedy (3.57 ERA), Aaron Harang (5.44) and Paul Maholm (3.77). Harang is the only back of the rotation pitcher out of that bunch.
In his first three June starts, Kenshin, a number five starter himself, faced Clayton Kershaw (2.96), Ian Kennedy (again), and David Price (2.31). It also didn’t help when he pitched 6 shutout innings and got NO RUNS against the DiamondBacks on June 9th. When he faced David Price, it didn’t help that the defense behind him committed 2 errors in the same inning to give him 3 unearned runs.
So it’s not his fault that his record shows that he is 0 – 9. Look at who he faces all the time when he is the #5 starter. Sure in his last start he was given a 4 run lead and blew it. He was probably shocked that he was given that much breathing room, that he immediately coughed it up. Kawakami always gets the bad matchups. Before you write another terrible article, do some research.
BravesFan
June 22nd, 2010
4:53 pm
I agree with everything you said, Zack. Except that it should be spelled Zach.
Techman
June 22nd, 2010
5:18 pm
oh noes! more logic!
01HAWK
June 22nd, 2010
6:48 pm
DLOWE, KAWACRUMMY, CHAVEZ, and MCOUT are a waste of space and money. And just think we have McOUT thru 2011, CRUMMY thru 2011, and DLOWE thru 2012.
What a joke they are. That is almost 1/3 of the team’s total salary.
CHAVEZ only makes $415k. Why don’t they just release him.
01HAWK
June 22nd, 2010
6:50 pm
ERA don’t lie. Any pitcher with over 4.00 ERA needs to go to the bullpen or go somewhere else.
IPayForAOL
June 22nd, 2010
6:55 pm
It’s just not nearly as simple as you’d like it to be. For one, results-based analysis, enough said. Two, Medlen’s career high in innings is 120 and 1/3 (2008) and he threw only 105 and 1/3 last year. If he stays in the rotation all year there’s a non-zero chance his arm will fall off.
Kawakami hasn’t been good, he hasn’t really been that bad, either. His 4.36 FIP is right in line with last year’s 4.21 mark.
Mainly, the defense behind him has been a lot crappier. Last year the fielders converted 71 percent of the balls in play behind Kawakami into outs. This year they’ve converted only 68 percent of the balls in play behind him into outs. That’s not decline or some special skill, that’s luck and defense, which Kawakami has nothing to do with.
Oh yeah, WINS/LOSSES TELL YOU ABSOLUTELY NOTHING USEFUL ABOUT HOW WELL A PITCHER PERFORMED. Stop using them. Jesus, are you trying to encourage ignorance?
01HAWK
June 22nd, 2010
7:05 pm
Why did we send KIMBRELL down to Gwinnett today instead of CHAVEZ ?
Let’s see…………………………………KIMBRELL 1.08 ERA and CHAVEZ 7.33 ERA. Can someone explain that move. Nearly pulled an OBLIQUE MUSCLE when I saw SAITO come off DL and KIMBRELL going down to GWINNETT,
Zack
June 22nd, 2010
7:30 pm
I think this title should be renamed: It’s time for the AJC to end the Jeff Schultz experiment.
Eric C.
June 22nd, 2010
8:56 pm
Jeff…you made bad call comparing Kawakami to Lowe. Beat the man down when he is at his lowest point…he is not as bad as you say. He’s certainly not worth the money he is getting, but not any worse than Lowe. Look at what Lowe is doing tonight?
Eric C.
June 22nd, 2010
8:58 pm
Oops…sorry folks for the blunder, I forgot Hanson was pitching tonight and had just seen the scoreboard…not able to see the game. My argument still stands however about KK vs Lowe.
techdweeb
June 22nd, 2010
9:38 pm
Time to end the Hanson experiment now, Schultz? Kamakami couldn’t have done any worse than Tommy tonight. This is a repeat of his Cincinnati drubbing. Guess we have to wait for Brooksie to bail him out with another 9th inning grand slam? He really is inconsistent this year and is still too young to be considered an “All-Star” pitcher. What about him, Schultz? What about Lowe? What about Jurjens? They’re all experiments this year. We just have the bats this year. Our starting pitching is a BIG experiment.
Wink
June 22nd, 2010
9:43 pm
KK may not have won a game yet, but I have never seen him pitch the way Hanson is pitching right now; he throwing batting practice to the White Sox who have not been above 500 since opening day. Hanson has given up 9 runs thru 4 innings and KK has not given up that many run in his last two starts. Hanson no strike outs tonight, everything hit hard even the outs. He’s getting hit so hard Conrad lost the ball in his shirt…very funny!
Tony
June 23rd, 2010
2:28 am
You know what I think? I think it’s time for AJC to end the Jeff Schultz experiment. Do you have some deep-seeded hatred of Asians? I’m having trouble figuring out why you’re harping on Kawakami when the Braves are in FIRST PLACE. Good pitchers have bad games, and Kenshin is just having a really bad season. Wins and ERA don’t define a pitcher.
Braves33
June 23rd, 2010
8:49 am
Send KK back to Japan for cash.
Zack
June 23rd, 2010
12:43 pm
Poll: What should we do with Jeff Shultz
A: Let Jason Heyward collide with him (Solved our other problem.)
B: Trade him to the Philadelphia newspaper
C: Send him back to 1974 via Hot Tub Machine
Thoughts?
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[...] ♦ It’s time for Braves to end the Kawakami experiment [...]