Are Braves playing dangerous game or can magic continue?
The Braves are getting accustomed to ninth-inning comebacks. But how long can this continue?
Before Braves obscurity Brooks Conrad hit the shot heard ’round Atlanta, Pittsfield and Round Rock Thursday, I was on my way to writing a column about the recent collapse of pitcher Tommy Hanson and the team’s starting rotation.
Conrad’s grand salami in the bottom of the ninth against Cincinnati changed all that. A seven-run ninth accounted for the biggest ninth-inning comeback in franchise history. The Braves won in their final at-bat for the third straight game and eighth time this season.
Here’s the question: How long do you think the Braves can keep getting away with these narrow escapes and wins engineered by unlikely sources (Conrad, Troy Glaus, Eric Hinske, etc.)?
These things can work in a short playoff series. But over 162 games in the regular season, the Braves are going to need to start getting more production from their staples.
A brief rundown of the problem areas:
♦ Chipper Jones went 0-for-4 (with two strikeouts) before pulled out of Thursday’s game. His average is down to .225. This is only slightly better than Yunel Escobar (.200) but worse than Brian McCann (.254). Next …
♦ Jones, Escobar and McCann should be the Braves’ primary run producers. I’m not taking anything away from Jason Heyward, who is amazing beyond belief. But the team can’t continue to rely on a rookie. Heyward (30) has nearly as many RBI as Jones, Escobar and McCann combined (33). That’s a dangerous game.
♦ Glaus went 3-for-4 Thursday and his average is up to .289. Hinske is hitting .355. If these moves work out over the full season, general manager Frank Wren deserves some credit. But Glaus and Hinske should be bonuses, not the backbone of the lineup. The Braves’ top four RBI men are Heyward (30), Glaus (27), Martin Prado (19) and Hinske (18). Conrad? With nine RBI, he’s only two behind Jones (11).
♦ Starting pitching is become an issue. Hanson was shelled by the Reds for eight runs (including a grand slam) in the second inning. He has allowed 13 earned runs, 15 hits and two homers in his last two starts (8 2/3 innings). The Braves already have Jair Jurrjens (0-3, 6.38) on the disabled list (hamstring). He’s expected to be out for another month. Kenshin Kawakami is 0-6 with a 4.98 ERA. Derek Lowe is a very fortunate 5-4. His ERA: second worst on the staff at 5.47. Tim Hudson has been solid.
The Braves are built on starting pitching and timely hitting by the core players in the lineup. Stories like those of Brooks Conrad are great. They just don’t happen very often.
♦
Recent Braves posts
Brooks Conrad has his career moment
We’re live, and Braves are alive: Do you think it’s for real?
Fredi Gonzalez should top Braves’ list to replace Cox
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284 comments Add your comment
ray k.
May 21st, 2010
2:27 pm
John,
I don’t think McClouth is going anywhere, man. His defense and speed are needed, and his bat has woken up a little bit.
LF would be the only position being looked at for an upgrade (unless escobar continues faltering badly and/or has another baserunning blunder)
ray k.
May 21st, 2010
2:29 pm
And Schafer hasn’t done anything to instill in me any degree of confidence that he can man the CF position on a regular basis. I’ll take McClouth.
hooters girl
May 21st, 2010
2:30 pm
Sorry but all I can think about is kissing your sexy forhead Schultz. You are one sexy man and your honest opinion about the braves is just icing on top. I LOVE YOU!!!!
lefty fielder
May 21st, 2010
2:35 pm
Hooters girl is overly dramatic and kinda corny but I like it.
I call it the Dagmar theorem.
Abner Double Dee
May 21st, 2010
2:40 pm
baseball is about managing “magic”. baseball is about trying to balance streaks and slumps. the bottom line is, the Braves are at .500 and within a “streak” of first place. of course this goes without saying the are within a “slump” of the cellar (see: late April fall from first to worst). I hate to trade in ciches, but let’s take ‘em one at a time… an ugly win is better than a pretty loss. Hanson still has good stuuf, McCann and Chipper will produce, and if they do not, in the time-honored tradition of baseball, somebody else (Heyward, Hinske, Glaus) will “pick ‘em up”. every team has flaws, and even the teams without flaws have to play 162 games. I am enjoying the 2010 Braves. talk to me in September.
Donny Corleone
May 21st, 2010
2:42 pm
What Chipper said: “I think i’m contributing this year even though my average, homers, RBIs, and slugging pct. is down.”
What Chipper meant: “You thought I would retire and walk away from all of this money? What a bunch of rubes! BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!”
JASon
May 21st, 2010
2:43 pm
Isn’t it funny in the NL East rankings how things are just turning out like last year again? The Phillies are comfortably out in front, with the nationals and the mets moving towards the bottom again. Every time the braves get people excited and make a run at that top spot…they may get it down to 3 or 4 games…you are going to see the phillies just pick it back up and pull away again. I mean, even in the West, the Dodgers are moving right back up to the top of their division, just like last year. It makes it very boring when the same thing happens each year.
Donny Corleone
May 21st, 2010
2:44 pm
Chipper: “Have you seen my ranch? My jet? My ex wife? It takes a chunk o’ change to keep this $h– going.”
Donny Corleone
May 21st, 2010
2:46 pm
Chipper: “Oh, by the way, OW.”
chris
May 21st, 2010
2:46 pm
We definitely need a shot in the arm offense wise. A trade would not be a bad idea but don’t sell the farm. Adrian Gonzalez a good choice; I’ve always felt the braves should have pursued Alex Rios and brought him to the National League; maybe under different settings he could flourish; he has speed on bases and can hit with power at times. Anything is better than what we have in Melky and Nate. I had high hopes for Melky but the avg dont lie and hes just not getting it done consistently. We need to have a Fred McGriff type bat in that lineup other than superman JeyHay. Hes still going to have his struggles as a rookie and Jeff Great point- you cant ride a season on a rookie – you need your catalyst and foundational players to step up! They havent yet and if they dont do soon the season will be gone as well as the magic. Not sure what is up with the rotation. Hanson still has the stuff, his location was awful last two games, Lowe needs to be part of a trade bait package, Huddie getting it done. Hopefully JJ will be bcak soon better than ever but if not- need to look for an alternative. Say what you will about John Sheurholtz; he was never scared to pull a trade in the past and do what he had to do to bring players in. If we’re serious about winning as an organization we got to go get SERIOUS baseball players and put them in an Atlanta uniform!
Phil
May 21st, 2010
2:47 pm
Mr. Charlie IS Bobby Cox, has to be.
Innocent Bystander
May 21st, 2010
2:49 pm
JS- You raise an excellent point. How long can we really expect unlikely guys like Hinske, Glaus and Conrad to be the heroes? You mentioned Chipper, Mac and Esco and their lack of any production whatsoever. I would say that once those guys come around (or once Mac and Esco come around, Chipper may be done) that should outweigh the “unlikely heroes” decent back to reality.
The fact that this team is getting the job done without our main guys is what really counts, because I suspect it’s only a matter of time until they start hitting again. Mac will have 2 HRs this series… take that to the bank!
JGzee
May 21st, 2010
2:50 pm
you hit it on the nose Jeff. The law of averages can’t keep Chipper, Mac, and Esco down for much longer. When JJ gets back and Medlen takes over KK’s spot in the rotation we’ll have a few nice winning streaks and be within 1 or 2 games of first in September and potentially leading the wildcard!
Donny Corleone
May 21st, 2010
2:50 pm
We may not have all of the right players in an Atlanta uniform, but we’ve sure as heck got better players on the bench than on the field at some positions.
jerry
May 21st, 2010
2:52 pm
At what point does Bobby draw a line in the sand regarding Larry Jones?
steve whitmire
May 21st, 2010
2:56 pm
JEFF, you da man fer shure, the worst problem facing this team is the manager, I love Bobby but he is STUBBORN beyond belief, he has three solid players on the bench in Hinske, Infante and Conrad who should be starting in place of Melky, Escobar and Chipper, but he refuses to start them. Infante could be in left, Hinske in center for that matter. I don’t think Hinske or Infante could be confused for Willie mays in the field but they can hit. Which is more than you can say for nate
Chipper
May 21st, 2010
2:56 pm
I wonder if Chipper can get out of his hotel room now and walk around.
Chipper
May 21st, 2010
2:57 pm
Enter your comments here
Boot Chip Caray also
May 21st, 2010
2:58 pm
While were are at it, can we get rid of Chip Caray also?
Fire Frank Wren
May 21st, 2010
3:00 pm
Do not under any circumstances trade a valuable asset like Escobar for a rental player. If trades are made they need to be made in an effort to make a great team in 2011 and beyond. With or without a Cliff Lee this team is not going to make the playoffs. And even if they lucked into a wildcard, it will be a quick exit. Start building a championship team for 2 years from now when the rediculous payroll errors are gone and the Braves have a chance to be really good.
Phil
May 21st, 2010
3:01 pm
“I love Bobby but he is STUBBORN beyond belief, he has three solid players on the bench in Hinske, Infante and Conrad who should be starting in place of Melky, Escobar and Chipper, but he refuses to start them.”
Very good point and I agree 100%. Mr. Charlie will explain it to us I’m sure, he and Cox(if not the same person) think alike.
eric the elder
May 21st, 2010
3:06 pm
When opposing teams start pitching around Heyward, or intentionally walking him, to get to Chipper, will he get the message? And how will he respond? Will he tighten his belt or sulk? Without production from the 3-hole, this season will not end well.
hooters girl
May 21st, 2010
3:11 pm
lefty fielder you are just jealous… Thats OK I can give you some lovin too
I hope you are not mad sexy Schultzy.
Phil
May 21st, 2010
3:11 pm
eric the elder,
Heyward needs to be in the 3 hole or maybe even cleanup. I like Chipper and he’s been a great player for the Braves through the years, but he’s clearly not the same player anymore.
But Cox will not budge on this, I guess he thinks longevity gives you a free pass. I guess that’s why Cox is still here.
wawel78
May 21st, 2010
3:13 pm
I disagree that Conrad should be starting in front of Chipper. His OBP is 400 so he’s still getting on base. They need to find a way to get him out of the 3-4-5 holes though.
Infante might be doing better than Escobar RIGHT NOW but Escobar is light years ahead of Infante. Give him some time.
John Tucker
May 21st, 2010
3:17 pm
Flaws are clear:
(1) 2 non-hitting OFs McClouth and cabrerra need to be replaced with productive hitters who can play defense and one of whom can bat leadoff. If Schafer is physically healed fro wrist surgery, he could do the job in CF.
(2) 3b CHiper Jones who needs to retire and become a coach, COnrad will be a legitimate replacement only when he gets his batting average over >260.
(3) A frayed starting rotation – after Hudson, Medlen and Lowe are barely passable. Kawakami will be okay with some decent run support. But, if JJ and Hanson do not return to the rotation and to form soon, the Braves will have to bring up or trade for somebody else
(4) Escobar needs an attitude adjustment from the neck up, but Infaante can spell him for the rest of the season if needed.
(5) 1B is okay with Glaus, who is the team’s hottest hitter now, unless he cools off again.Still would trade Glaus and Freddie Freeman and a couple of minor league pitchers for Adrian GOnzalez.
hooters girl
May 21st, 2010
3:18 pm
I for one think Phil is an Idiot.
Fire Frank Wren
May 21st, 2010
3:19 pm
This team does not make playoffs with or without Cliff Lee. Only trade valuable assets like Escobar for future stars. 2012 and beyond the Braves have a chance to be great after these stupid personnel moves play themselves out. Sit back, have a beer and enjoy Heyward, Hanson, Shaffer, Freeman, Venters, Kimbrel and Medlin until then.
MitchC
May 21st, 2010
3:20 pm
Jeff, so what do you think the answer is then:? Two weeks ago this team was ice cold, and couldnt hit a lick. Now, they are scoring runs, winning, have moved into serious contention for a wild card spot, and.. if they keep winning, even have a shot to make a run at the Phillies.
The biggest loss on the staff is JJ. He will be back. I think the team needs one more power bat, even though they’ve been scoring runs lately. Hanson’s problem may just be a slump. (Sophmore).
What do you propose the Braves should do to make this “magical” run, into a more consistent team that can win over the long season, without “magic”
Left out in Suwanee
May 21st, 2010
3:20 pm
Not sure if anyone has suggested this but Chipper should be moved up to the 2 hole batting in front of Heyward. Chipper’s would see a lot more fastballs and wouldn’t be walked nearly as much and then we’d all really see if his bat speed is totally gone.
Scott
May 21st, 2010
3:26 pm
Who knows what will happen, but I agree, the “luck” will eventually run out. Chipper isn’t Chipper, that’s just a fact of baseball life. He’s an aging legend, trying to hold on as long as possible. He, we, really can’t expect to produce more than a .265, 15 HR, 65 RBI’s, in 140ish games, and if he manages that I’ll be impressed. As for Glaus (I hope I don’t curse it), I think we’ll see a 30/100 season from him, he looks good, and he’s starting to see the ball very well. Hinske won’t be consistent, but who knows, he had some wonderful years in Toronto a few years back. I’m not overly concerned with Hanson’s “collapse”, he’s just losing a little command, and needs to re focus, and adjust, like all pitchers do. Overall, I think we’ll see a winning season, similar to last year, but this team will not satisfy anyone’s “return to glory” dreams.
wawel78
May 21st, 2010
3:27 pm
THE BRAVES WILL NOT BE TRADING ESCOBAR. HE MAKES 400K/ANNUALLY.
wawel78
May 21st, 2010
3:29 pm
and for the person who said it is “likely” the braves will win 90+ games, how did you come to this conclusion? They’re on pace to win 85.
Phil
May 21st, 2010
3:29 pm
hooters girl,
Shouldn’t you be out serving some rednecks beer and burgers?
Fire Frank Wren
May 21st, 2010
3:31 pm
Escobar is a valuable asset and we are not going anywhere soon so why not trade him for two young studs and play Infante? What you say only makes him more valuable to others. The sooner we sell anything of value that doesn’t fit into our 2012 plan the better.
hooters girl
May 21st, 2010
3:32 pm
Phil shouldn’t you be filing your unemployment for the week?
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
May 21st, 2010
3:38 pm
Of Chipper, Yunel, and B-Mac, I know Brian will come around. Chipper should improve BA-wise, but the homerun-stroke seems to have waned. I feel Yunel’s problem lies in the head, and I don’t know if Bobby can crack the code. Could the next guy? Eddie Perez maybe? Dunno.
shane
May 21st, 2010
3:41 pm
and for the person who said it is “likely” the braves will win 90+ games, how did you come to this conclusion? They’re on pace to win 85.
They are on pace to win 85 games and haven’t played very well. I still think McCann Chipper and Escobar will start to hit. KK will improve and it will be just like adding a free agent pitcher when we get a healthy JJ back.
P-Man
May 21st, 2010
3:42 pm
Jeff, this is the 2nd time I’ve heard this referenced as the greatest comeback in Braves history, but I remember a game in Los Angeles against the Dodgers in the late 70s or early 80s where the Braves scored 8 runs in the top of the 9th to win 9-8.
shane
May 21st, 2010
3:44 pm
Escobar is a valuable asset and we are not going anywhere soon so why not trade him for two young studs and play Infante?
Infante over a full season would be a disaster.
1. He is not an everyday player for a reason
2. He is a lifetime .260 hitter
3. His range and defense at SS ( the most important defensive position on the field ) are extremely limited. He is an OFer who happens to be able to play some SS.
If you ever played strat-o-matic baseball you’ll understand this. At SS Escobar is a 1 or a 2. Infante is a 5.
shane
May 21st, 2010
3:47 pm
Jeff, this is the 2nd time I’ve heard this referenced as the greatest comeback in Braves history, but I remember a game in Los Angeles against the Dodgers in the late 70s or early 80s where the Braves scored 8 runs in the top of the 9th to win 9-8.
I remember that game too. Seems like Murphy hit a HR in that one to tie it or win it.
GTSteve
May 21st, 2010
3:48 pm
hooters girl
May 21st, 2010
3:32 pm
Phil shouldn’t you be filing your unemployment for the week?
Unemployment can’t be filed until Sunday
chem
May 21st, 2010
3:49 pm
Javier Vazquez has an 8.01 ERA a quarter into this season with the Yanks and a 4.24 career ERA over a 13 season career. No matter how he pitches from here on out, last year was a fluke, and Wren was smart to get something for him.
shane
May 21st, 2010
3:51 pm
No matter how he pitches from here on out, last year was a fluke, and Wren was smart to get something for him.
Agreed. And from the looks of it this Adroys Vizcaino is gonna be a stud.
Sean, True Atlanta Fan
May 21st, 2010
3:52 pm
Seriously, do we have to be negative right now? The Braves might not be hitting or pitching as well as they want to now but they’re doing the most important thing: WINNING GAMES. I mean it takes a while for some of the Braves players to start get going, but they’re right now in a better position than they were last year. I mean we had an outfield of Diaz, Schafer, and Francoeur. Now we have Hinske, McLouth, and Heyward. The rotation will get better as the season goes. If not, they’ve got Mike Minor or Chris Resop waiting in the minor leagues.
Now the only changes I would like to see are Heyward be moved to the 3rd or cleanup spot and moving Chipper to second or sixth in the lineup. And Omar Infante replacing Yunel Escobar at shortstop for now. Escobar is being way too aggressive at the plate.
Fire Frank Wren
May 21st, 2010
3:52 pm
What you are saying only reenforces the reasons to trade him. Escobar is valuable and is at maximum value now. What difference does it make if he is a 1 and Infante is a 5, we will be home in October either way. Trade him now while he has maximum value. It is my opinion we will wait until he is making big money and then let him go rather than pay him because we have can’t afford it with all the other mistakes. We continue to hamstring the future by waiting too long to develop and execute a plan. We wake up every year in the same environment expecting a miricle to occur. It ain’t happening.
cattle dawg
May 21st, 2010
3:53 pm
Whats the chances of Medlin staying a starter when JJ comes back, assuming he can keep up the good work. Could kk move to the pen?
Real UT
May 21st, 2010
4:01 pm
Medlen has looked pretty good.
"Chef" Tim Dix
May 21st, 2010
4:01 pm
cattle dawg: There are 8 Million reasons the Braves will not move KK to the pen at this point in the season.
jesse james
May 21st, 2010
4:07 pm
Yea Jeff the timing of your article is questionable. Let’s enjoy the moment. It is a long season and what a thrill for the fans yesterday. Yes we could sit in front of our keyboard and look for all the negative, but all Braves fans enjoyed that. I believe Conrad will have some more moments and he along with the other new guys on the team will keep this up. They have fight and that is what you look for especially in pro sports now days. Oh and by the way you still couldn’t carry Coach Richts’ jock strap. Boy you are a loser!!!!!!!!!!!!!!