Are Braves playing dangerous game or can magic continue?
The Braves are getting accustomed to ninth-inning comebacks. But how long can this continue?
Before Braves obscurity Brooks Conrad hit the shot heard ’round Atlanta, Pittsfield and Round Rock Thursday, I was on my way to writing a column about the recent collapse of pitcher Tommy Hanson and the team’s starting rotation.
Conrad’s grand salami in the bottom of the ninth against Cincinnati changed all that. A seven-run ninth accounted for the biggest ninth-inning comeback in franchise history. The Braves won in their final at-bat for the third straight game and eighth time this season.
Here’s the question: How long do you think the Braves can keep getting away with these narrow escapes and wins engineered by unlikely sources (Conrad, Troy Glaus, Eric Hinske, etc.)?
These things can work in a short playoff series. But over 162 games in the regular season, the Braves are going to need to start getting more production from their staples.
A brief rundown of the problem areas:
♦ Chipper Jones went 0-for-4 (with two strikeouts) before pulled out of Thursday’s game. His average is down to .225. This is only slightly better than Yunel Escobar (.200) but worse than Brian McCann (.254). Next …
♦ Jones, Escobar and McCann should be the Braves’ primary run producers. I’m not taking anything away from Jason Heyward, who is amazing beyond belief. But the team can’t continue to rely on a rookie. Heyward (30) has nearly as many RBI as Jones, Escobar and McCann combined (33). That’s a dangerous game.
♦ Glaus went 3-for-4 Thursday and his average is up to .289. Hinske is hitting .355. If these moves work out over the full season, general manager Frank Wren deserves some credit. But Glaus and Hinske should be bonuses, not the backbone of the lineup. The Braves’ top four RBI men are Heyward (30), Glaus (27), Martin Prado (19) and Hinske (18). Conrad? With nine RBI, he’s only two behind Jones (11).
♦ Starting pitching is become an issue. Hanson was shelled by the Reds for eight runs (including a grand slam) in the second inning. He has allowed 13 earned runs, 15 hits and two homers in his last two starts (8 2/3 innings). The Braves already have Jair Jurrjens (0-3, 6.38) on the disabled list (hamstring). He’s expected to be out for another month. Kenshin Kawakami is 0-6 with a 4.98 ERA. Derek Lowe is a very fortunate 5-4. His ERA: second worst on the staff at 5.47. Tim Hudson has been solid.
The Braves are built on starting pitching and timely hitting by the core players in the lineup. Stories like those of Brooks Conrad are great. They just don’t happen very often.
♦
Recent Braves posts
Brooks Conrad has his career moment
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Fredi Gonzalez should top Braves’ list to replace Cox
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284 comments Add your comment
Ryan
May 21st, 2010
1:11 pm
So I took the time to go through and rate the team on a 1-10 scale. I assumed 5 was their current level of play through 41 games. If I expected them to perform better the rest of the year they moved up on the 1-10 scale and if I expected them perform worse they moved down on the scale. Below are the rankings I assigned, which you can feel free to debate.
Prado – 5
Heyward – 4
Jones – 7
Glaus – 5
McCann – 6
Escobar – 8
Hinske/Diaz – 5
Cabrera/McClouth – 7
Hudson – 3
Hanson – 7
Jurjens/Medlen – 5
Lowe – 5
Kawakami – 5
Bullpen – 4
Injuries/Bench – 5
All in all I’d say the starters in total will perform about the same throughout the remainder of the year. The offense will improve as a group and I think the bullpen will be slightly worse due to fatigue. I think the bench and injuries will be about the same as we’ve already had a reasonable share of injuries to start the year.
In total I’m projecting an 88-74 record (roughly .553 WP), which should put them right on the cusp of the playoffs. I’d say the WC would be between Braves, Giants, Rockies, and Marlines. Reds and Padres will fade over the season.
Thoughts???
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:12 pm
I know what that is, but how does it project that braves being 23-20?
hootersgirl
May 21st, 2010
1:12 pm
Chipper should pull himself out of the 3 spot for the TEAM! Bobby won’t do it
Joey M
May 21st, 2010
1:13 pm
I have never seen more Braves hitters suffer from the same affliction of not being able to hit. How can C. Jones, B. McCann, Y. Escobar, and N. McLouth not be hitting all at the same time? Chipper recently said he will retire before he embarrasses himself. I wonder why he is still playing if he can make that statement. McCann got new glasses so he is trying. What have the other guys done to try to snap out of this really bad spell?
Furman Bitcher
May 21st, 2010
1:13 pm
Chipper doesnt fill out the line up card
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:13 pm
Hooters girl, you should know as well as anywone, Chipper will not pull himself out of anything.
Furman Bitcher
May 21st, 2010
1:14 pm
Joey I heard Escobar bought a new gold chain and some ear rings. That is what he did to snap.
Furman Bitcher
May 21st, 2010
1:15 pm
Well played Mr. Charlie. Well played.
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:16 pm
Joey, I am sure they are all lookiing at old tape when they were hitting, taking batting practice, and just getting their hacks. Sometimes just forgetting about it for a while, sometimes a good raw dawging will snap you out of it.
Ted Striker
May 21st, 2010
1:16 pm
I say have Susan Sarandon start sleeping with Tommy Hanson. I don’t know much about baseball but that ought to give them another 10 wins.
GEORGIA97
May 21st, 2010
1:16 pm
Thanks, Dr. McKilljoy.
Furman Bitcher
May 21st, 2010
1:16 pm
With a Hooters girl
F-105 Thunderchief
May 21st, 2010
1:18 pm
To your core question of can they keep doing this, my answer is: I don’t care how they win as long as they do. This was never a perfect roster, it was one with huge questions marks. If they are competitive all year, I’ll be happy. I don’t expect this team to be a world beater and if they are, it’ll be much fun and much gravy. The Braves are still building and it looks like they are doing OK at it. Are McCann and Escobar done? Probably not. Chipper? Maybe. Glaus, Wagner and Saito are stopgaps to up-and-comers. It’s baseball season and the Braves are doing OK. I’m happy.
coach joe
May 21st, 2010
1:18 pm
Vasquez starts today for the Yankees vs. the Mets.. After yesterday’s miracle how can anyone be negative..Infante needs to play..
Go Braves..
Ryan
May 21st, 2010
1:19 pm
Sorry the .553 is the winning % througout the remainder of the year to get to 88 wins. One item I forgot is schedule. We’ve already gone through our 1st or 2nd toughest stretch of the year with 19 games in 20 days and 16 of those on the road. The next tough one is 11 straight games on the road in early June. How does this team hold up over the next month. If we’re still close as of June 14th I like our chances.
Rob
May 21st, 2010
1:19 pm
I tend to agree with Jeff, however the timing of this article is pretty lame. Just complete the biggest 9th inning comeback of their lives, and today we try to figure out what is wrong with them? Probably could have saved this for the next disappointment. And Hollywould- please shut up with your tired rhetoric. This crap about the Big 3 not being good pitchers and getting 10 inches off the plate is pitiful. Thanks to whoever corrected the bonehead with Schaefers true stats. Actually hitting lower than Melky in AAA! Sounds promising.
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:21 pm
Amen 105, all I ask from this team is a reason to watch come September.
Maybe I like Cox so much because I remember what it was like before he came around. People just don’t know what bad is. Although I did like when Ted was the coach.
TONE
May 21st, 2010
1:21 pm
no no no keep sarandon away from the braves , jenna jameson on the other hand would be a better choice , i bet she could correct the bats
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:23 pm
Fact is, to have any chance at all, they have to prove they can beat the Phils, have not seen much evidence of that. But again, just be in the hunt come September, that is all I ask.
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:24 pm
I don’t know, you don’t want Jenna around a buch of Raw Dawggers, that could be risky.
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:25 pm
You get Jenna around Raw Doggers like Conrad, next thing you know the entire team breaks out in a rash.
guthro
May 21st, 2010
1:25 pm
Yes, at least give Infante a couple of starts a week until or unless Escobar returns to the last year’s level of play!
In the last two weeks McLouth is hitting .260 or so, his usual average. he looks good in the 8 hole–some hits, some speed, a bit of power, not enough of any of those to hit leadoff.
And yes, unless Jones, McCann & Esco return to their customary levels, this team’s no better than third in the division.
TONE
May 21st, 2010
1:26 pm
good point on the rash ! cant hit or pitch if you are scratching
N
May 21st, 2010
1:31 pm
Seriously. The best you can do? Admit you were going to write a story about how bad hanson is and then change it to how bad the team is. Really???? Have you watched baseball before. Good pitchers have down times. Look up Josh Beckett. No mention of how hanson was not feeling well. And you are surprised by Glaus? Why, his track record supports what he is doing now.
Why do I get the feeling you wish the Braves were 8 games under .500
F-105 Thunderchief
May 21st, 2010
1:32 pm
I’d rather have Sarandon at 60-something than Jameson.
F-105 Thunderchief
May 21st, 2010
1:32 pm
But then I’m a fairly old phart myself.
In My Head
May 21st, 2010
1:35 pm
Schultz, you must see into my head or I see into yours or whatever….
Anyway, this column says exactly what I feel about this team. The players who are producing should be the gravy, not the backbone. With a quarter of the season gone and piggybacking on last years performance it seems that Chipper isn’t the go to guy anymore on offense. His career, like his abilities, are fading away.
The starting pitching has been a disappointment.
Now if I posted these ideas on another blog that is hosted by AJC, I would be labeled a malcontent, know nothing, fair weathered fan that should be horsewhipped for breathing! At least on this side of the board, there seems to be some folks who recognize this team isn’t being touted as the favorite to win the 2010 World Series yet.
Ramblin Wrecker
May 21st, 2010
1:38 pm
Agreed on the offensive front. Chipper, McCann and Escobar have to get closer to their norms or they won’t continue this offensive renaissance.
As for pitching, I’m concerned about Hanson and Jurrjens the individuals, but not concerned about the Braves pitching rotation going forward. I think Medlen should remain in the rotation after Jurrjens returns (bye bye KK or DLowe). He’s got a pedigree (in the minors and so far in the majors) that is comparable to Jurrjens. And if Hanson has an injury issue, the Braves have some options that would not be awful. For immediate assistance they can dip down to Gwinnett and pull up Chris Resop. Resop is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP with 56 K’s in 48.2 innings. That’s very good. He could offer spot starts in the event of injury. Or for a more prolonged open spot, how about Mike Minor? Minor has a 3.43 ERA with 65 K’s in 44.2 innings. He’s missing bats and is very polished according to Braves scouts and Frank Wren. I think the rotation will be ok.
GTSteve
May 21st, 2010
1:40 pm
Mr Charlie
May 21st, 2010
1:13 pm
Hang on while I wipe soda off my screen
In My Head
May 21st, 2010
1:45 pm
“Rob
May 21st, 2010
1:19 pm
I tend to agree with Jeff, however the timing of this article is pretty lame. Just complete the biggest 9th inning comeback of their lives, and today we try to figure out what is wrong with them?”
Actually it’s this kind of thinking that can keep a team from making postseason play. That’s the problem with this teams management. Sit on their laurels. Braves just won a great game! Lets celebrate for a couple of days! The Braves had back to back walk off wins a few weeks back and followed it with losing 9 IN A ROW!
I would rather be proactive than reactive. The teams who are constantly trying to get better don’t usually take the day off to strut. The teams who are constantly trying to get better generally DO get better. The teams who say “we’re good enough, lets enjoy the moment” will probably be at home watching the teams who aren’t satisfied, playing in the post season.
DawgDad
May 21st, 2010
1:50 pm
It’s nice to see Glaus has turned it around, and nice to see signs of life in McLouth. Those guys are sorely needed. Hinske is essentially doing what we expected from Diaz, from the other side of the plate. When Diaz eventually comes back that is an acceptable platoon in left field.
Escobar needs to right his ship, but expectations are solid that he will, in time. He’s a shortstop; Cox and Cadahia need to tell him to calm down and not get so excited about not hitting because his defense will keep him in the lineup, and when his bat does come around his role in the lineup will change accordingly. He is wired; he needs to relax at the plate and let the game come to him.
The remaining strategic mistakes are: Cabrera (we’re getting exactly what his history indicated we’d get, factoring out ballpark effects), reliance on Chipper and McCann to hold down the 3-4 slots (needs to change NOW), not getting a true leadoff hitter.
I feel for Chipper; this is not a slump anymore; almost four full months at this level of performance, with virtually no power from the left side. His defense has been awful, too. I hope this isn’t the end for him, because he’s headed for the Hall of Fame, but I’m convinced he’s not coming back to anything near all-star caliber performance. He’s getting outplayed by Brooks Conrad, Omar Infante, Martin Prado, anyone the park over there at third base. I feel for him, but the Braves pay people to make the tough decisions.
The pitching staff is the least of the worries right now. Reportedly the Minor prospect is pitching well and might actually be MLB ready by mid-season. Not worried about Hanson. By the end of the year Lowe and Kawakami may well be fighting for bullpen jobs.
G'Vegas Dawg
May 21st, 2010
1:51 pm
Who cares? They’re winning aren’t they? True they are still a little under .500, but, it’s a big time turn around from April. I’m enjoying watching the latest version of the cardiac kids…
Delbert D.
May 21st, 2010
1:52 pm
Shaeferer is almost well enough to trade, isn’t he?
Don’t ask…I’m tired of looking it up.
Alaska Braves Fan
May 21st, 2010
1:52 pm
To make an obvious observation: There’s a reason why we play the games instead of just settling the score by analyzing the makeup of each team. Sometimes a group of guys or gals ends up becoming better, even much better, than the sum of the parts. That’s what happened yesterday. Luck? Yes, some, but you have to do some things for luck to happen.
Starting pitching is a serious concern, but mainly because of sickness and injuries. When all five starters are able to walk out and give their best, we will have a good shot in almost every game.
It’s really difficult to figure what’s going on when several players who ordinarily produce well slump simultaneously. Should we expect them all to resume their previous levels, or has something happened to each of them that is irremediable? The most likely outcome is that McCann, Escobar, and Jones all will play better as the year progresses. If everyone else holds what they’ve got, the Braves should make the playoffs. (The data says a person probably never should have a second set of surgeries on the eyes. Each surgery weakens the cornea and makes success more transitory.)
Despite some ups and downs, the bullpen is a strength this year. As one of the radio guys said recently, we have to like our chances whenever it’s our bullpen versus anyone else’s. That is no small advantage.
Predicting any outcome in sports is chancy, but the Braves likely will win 90+ games this year and make the playoffs. Still, it all comes down to the score each game for 162 games.
ABF
Crack Head
May 21st, 2010
1:55 pm
135th!!!!!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
YEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!
MAN!!! WOW!!!!
papadawg
May 21st, 2010
1:56 pm
What I’ve seen until now is a weak back end of the Starting pitching and a very inconsistent batting order. I know good teams come back in the latter inings to win but can we expect this group of guys to do this for the rest of the season.
Hillbilly Deluxe
May 21st, 2010
1:59 pm
When a team is down 8-0 and comes back, they are to be commended for not giving up and perservering. However, in order to overcome a deficit like that, you have to figure the other team’s failures had as much to do with as the winner did.
tom
May 21st, 2010
2:01 pm
The sky is falling, the sky is falling…..whoops, Braves Win 10-9, Go Bravos
meh
May 21st, 2010
2:02 pm
that comeback was awesome and all, but I’d like to see the Braves take a lead and just stay in the lead the whole time.
ijudgenot
May 21st, 2010
2:05 pm
While we all should congratulate the Braves players for not giving up, its not like they had 5 straight hits with a walk off monster grand slam. The reality is that they had 2 singles followed by 3 hit balls that should have been caught but were not. So the Reds played a huge part in the come back. Also Cox decision to replace Chipper with Conrad and McCann with Ross was not made because he thought they would spark the team, but was his way of saying the game was lost so why not give Chipper and McCann(night/day game right behind each other) some rest. Conrad just made him look smart. McClouth is showing that the 8 spot suits him better than leadoff hitter, but that want deter Bobby from reinserting him in leadoff spot if he continures to hit while in 8 spot.
Tale of Woe
May 21st, 2010
2:05 pm
I read that Hanson has been sick. I think that we should give him a break for his terrible outing yesterday. McCann, Chipper, and Yunel need to start hitting or this team is going to be in trouble. I agree with Jeff about winning a short series with these type of heroics from Glaus, Hinske, and Conrad – we can’t be a winning team over 162 games unless the big 3 join Heyward and start producing.
J
May 21st, 2010
2:06 pm
I dont see how the Braves winning in bottom of the ninth changes the situation with starting pitching and Hanson’s collapse. The grand slam didnt erase the beating Hanson’s ERA took in the 2nd.
Fan since '65
May 21st, 2010
2:07 pm
Your comments sound similar to the ones being made in 1991. They were wrong then….
goose trippett
May 21st, 2010
2:10 pm
unlikely sources…..troy glaus and hinske..
shutup dude
John
May 21st, 2010
2:11 pm
Jeff – don’t buy into the typical fan error of buying/dumping something on the hot trend. It’s like buying stocks that way.
3 weeks ago the apoplexy about Glaus and the need to call up Freeman, lest the Braves season wash away, was like standing next to a tornado siren. Now – Glaus is one of the more productive hitters in the middle of the lineup. If you haven’t noticed – veterans often take more than a 2 week spring to get going (see Garrett Anderson last year).
As for Hanson – weren’t you or Bradley writing 15 days ago about how fun it will be to watch a young Braves pitcher become a perennial Cy Young candidate?
The flip side of your argument – what if McCann, Escobar and Jones hit for 10 pts LESS than their career avg? They all move up about 50 pts. The IFand the pitching is not the long-term concern. It is the LF and CF spots – and that is where you can expect Wren to make moves. Either move Infante out to LF to platoon with Hinske or get another everyday guy. In CF – how far away is Schaefer? Those are the moves.
BravesFan
May 21st, 2010
2:17 pm
I wonder if it would make sense to have Ross catch every 5th day. As Bobby used to do with Javy Lopez. That would give McCann mutch need rest. I don’t know why Bobby went away with that. I know that Maddux wanted to throw to someone other than Lopez but I’m wondering the one day off would help McCann. Anyone agree or disagree.
Dr. Phil
May 21st, 2010
2:17 pm
The Braves will do better if Chipper gets a fishing show sponsored by Red Man and Escobar becomes a hairdresser.
JD
May 21st, 2010
2:17 pm
Chipper will come around, if they ever throw him any strikes. He leads the league in walks. The strategy is to not give him anything good to hit.
ray k.
May 21st, 2010
2:23 pm
The way things are rolling right now, there really isn’t a position with a gaping hole that needs fixing via trade. If 3rd base were occupied by anyone other than Chipper, I’d say let’s go get somebody in July, but he’s too valuable a presence; you have to think Escobar is going to figure it out sooner or later; Hinske may crash to earth, but I suspect he’ll remain servicable, finishing with a .270 avg and 10 HR’s in 350 AB’s (primarily against righties).
All told, the Braves chances of winning 88-92 games hinges on 3 things:
Lowe’s sinker.
JJ’s return to form.
McCann’s return to form.
Chipper’s OB% will remain respectable even without the power. Glaus is no longer a sure out, which means Mac will see more to hit.
That’s it in a nutshell.
Elon Brave
May 21st, 2010
2:25 pm
Why would we assume that Chipper, McCann, and Escobar won’t start hitting when they have proven track records of being much better than they are right now. I can understand the argument that maybe Chipper is done being Chipper, but the other guys will bounce back.