A.J. Green ranked No. 4 in draft (and Bama’s loaded again)
Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green is projected the No. 4 player in the next NFL draft, according to Mel Kiper. (Bob Andres/AJC)
Good morning. Sorry, no cake blogs are on the horizon, but I’ll let you know.
I’ve made it pretty clear in the past that trying to grade NFL drafts immediately after the fact is a useless exercise, akin to reviewing a restaurant based on what’s on the menu.
So this might seem like a bit of a contradiction. But here goes: Some of the “expert” draftniks, including ESPN’s Mel Kiper, actually do a pretty decent job ranking the top players eligible for the next NFL draft. Even some general managers will tell you so.
Where they fail at times is understanding a team’s needs and how a certain player fits into a team’s schemes, based on his strengths and weaknesses. And, of course, there can be a significant difference of opinion on how extreme those strengths and weaknesses are.
For example: Some people ripped the Falcons’ first pick, Sean Weatherspoon, based on the fact that he’s not a classic blitzing outside linebacker that can help their pass rush. Left unsaid is that the Falcons see him as an EVERY-down back who can significantly help their pass coverage against the NFC South’s tight ends and running back, as well as defend the run and, yes, blitz.
With that said, Kiper — who I understand has quite a following — just came out with his first “Big Board” of the top 25 eligible players for the 2011 draft. Kiper pats himself on the back a little before listing the players, and that’s OK:
A little perspective to start. Last year, back before any games in the college season had even been played, my first Big Board came out. Looking back, six of the players in that top 10 actually went in the top 10 of the recent draft. A few guys fell for various reasons. Whether it was Carlos Dunlap’s judgment, a really odd interview process for Dez Bryant, or simply bad tape for Taylor Mays, some guys didn’t remain that high. It happens every year.
OK, here’s what will be of the most most interest to you:
♦ Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green is the highest-ranked local player on the board: fourth overall, behind only two quarterbacks, Jake Locker of Washington and Andrew Luck of Stanford, and North Carolina defensive end Robert Quinn. Green will only be a junior but most expect him to come out. Kiper’s comment: “The profile of a No. 1 receiver. Great size and speed, instinctive, great hands.”
♦ There are no Georgia Tech players in the top 25, after Derrick Morgan and Demaryius Thomas both made the list last season.
♦ Anybody projecting Alabama to take a significant step back after winning the national championship should think again. Three returning players are among the top 17 on Kiper’s list: Defensive end Marcel Dareus (7), running back Mark Ingram (11), wide receiver Julio Jones (17).
♦ The top 25 list includes seven players from the ACC (below in blue) and six from the SEC (in red).
Here’s the list. Let me know what you think.
♦
1. Jake Locker, QB, Washington.
2. Andrew Luck*, QB, Stanford.
3. Robert Quinn*, DE, North Carolina.
4. A.J. Green*, WR, Georgia.
5. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.
6. Ryan Mallett*, QB, Arkansas.
7. Marcel Dareus*, DE, Alabama.
8. Anthony Costanzo, DT, Boston College.
9. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State.
10. Patrick Peterson*, CB, LSU.
11. Mark Ingram, RB*, Alabama.
12. Aaron Williams*, CB, Texas.
13. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina.
14. Jonathan Baldwin*, WR, Pittsburgh.
15. Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech.
16. Allen Bailey, DE, Miami.
17. Julio Jones*, WR, Alabama.
18. Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina.
19. Michael Floyd*, WR, Notre Dame.
20. Akeem Ayers*, OLB, UCLA.
21. Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia.
22. Jurrell Casey, DT, USC.
23. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.
24. Gabe Carimi, OT, Washington.
25. Rahim Moore*, S, UCLA.
♦
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC and on Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
♦
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143 comments Add your comment
gte268p
May 6th, 2010
11:10 am
not as good as calvin!
Marcus aka decatur g
May 6th, 2010
11:10 am
In the interest of looking forward, can we even project the Falcons needs this far in advance?
TE (T. Gonzo’s eventual retirement) and maybe OL may be the obvious spots, depending on how Hawley works out, and if we still have faith that Blaylock and Baker will be serviceable as pros. Maybe outside consideration for DE, if Abraham doesn’t get back to form and we need another guy for the DE rotation to add to Sidbury and Biermann.
Other than that, we won’t see our weaknesses until maybe mid-season this year.
Smoke
May 6th, 2010
11:11 am
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, Mel Kiper also had Jimmy Clausen #8 overall. His predictions weren’t exactly great.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:14 am
Smoke, Mel needs to lay off the weed and drink some Dos XX. Stay thirsty..
1eyedJack
May 6th, 2010
11:16 am
The Dawgs sure could have used Allen Bailey. Tough to see one you really wanted get away.
Jeff Schultz
May 6th, 2010
11:18 am
Stinger — I know Aaron Murray is a freshman, but the offense can’t possibly be worse than it was last year, can it?
1eyedJack
May 6th, 2010
11:19 am
Richard Cranium…what’d the kids in school call you?
the most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:19 am
Smoke, I am sorry I offended you.
Jeff Schultz
May 6th, 2010
11:19 am
Ron Mexico — Thanks for checking in. How’s Philly?
Thom Thumb
May 6th, 2010
11:20 am
Jeff and stinger, did you see murray trying to see over his line. If the OL cant open holes for the RB’s it is going to be a very long year.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:21 am
1eyed, back then we called them sissies, now they wave rainbow flags.
Jeff Schultz
May 6th, 2010
11:21 am
Tom — Obviously was talking about the colleges. But yes, for all who don’t know: Cameron Heyward is from Suwanee and went to Peachtree Ridge HS. He’s 6-5, 288 and a beast.
Mark
May 6th, 2010
11:23 am
Actually Tucker that is the only reason Brennen was drafted (his stats). The same holds true for Tebow. Seriously, how can you trade 3 draft picks for a player like him. He’s a winner, great that should really translate to a lot of NFL wins.
Fact is he is a QB who relied HEAVILY on his ability to run with the football. VERY few teams in college football have the D to stop a player like that. Those who were able to shut down his threat of running, thereby making him beat them with is arm, won. Since he won’t be able to be a threat to run in the NFL how is it to be expected that he will be successful???
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:29 am
Mark, only a fool would bet against a player who has won at every level. Funny thing, Bradford ran out of the shotgun also and not a single analyst wondered if he could adapt at under center snaps and Bradford had better have a good line because dude is fragile. If you watched the 08 SEC championship game 4th qtr and the second half of the 08 NC, he beat Bama and OK with his arm and they were two very stout D’s. His problem last year is he had no recievers and still led the nation in efficiency.
JB
May 6th, 2010
11:40 am
Boy, I hope we don’t waste AJ’s last year in Athens…….It would be a shame for him to only catch 30 balls or so when he has the talent to catch 70.
Dan
May 6th, 2010
11:42 am
AJ is one gamebreaker on Georgia’s roster. So is Murray, who McCoy said was “the best he’d ever seen” So is Ealey (broke Herschel Walker’s record in high school and averaging more yards per carry in college), Branden Smith (12 ypc higher than Percy Harvin–ranked #2 athlete in nation), Charles Olson (ranked #1 TE in nation), Boykin (3 KO’s for td’s). These big 5 could all win a Heisman, if 3 click this year, it’s light’s out. The OLine will have many future NFL picks, they’ve given up least sacks and average 247 yards a game on the ground.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:50 am
Dan, good morning patrick.
GoodTimes
May 6th, 2010
11:53 am
This whole discussion is stupid. Everyone who follows college football knows that AJ is awesome. But what also applies in the draft are issues of intelligence, behavior, and rumors of behavior. That last one is a killer (ask Jonathan D.) Plus, the needs of the NFL teams. It’s fun to BS about, but don’t take Mel too seriously. If Jimmy Claussen doesn’t work out, Mel will have to take up a new trade.
DP
May 6th, 2010
11:53 am
Marcel Dareus, Mark Ingram and Julio Jones are all rising juniors from the 2008 recruiting class. Two other members of the same class are also candidates to come out early and be first round draft picks: linebacker Dont’a Hightower and safety Mark Barron. If Hightower is all the way back from his knee injury I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t go in the top 20 draft picks next year.
Reality Tide
May 6th, 2010
11:54 am
Mark it down—this Bama team is better than last years and will win Title #14 in January, 2011—with an easy win over Ohio State. Saban’s built a machine that will be dominating the country for years!!!!
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:55 am
GoodTimes, Ask Carlos Dunlap and Aaron Hernandez.
Mark
May 6th, 2010
11:55 am
Most interesting man alive- All Heisman Trophy winners have been successful “at every level”. Only about 3-4 of them have been worth $hit in the NFL. You can’t deny the fact that running was a HUGE part of his game. His success throwing was dependent on his threat to run. I didn’t say that he was never successful throwing just that when his ability to run was taken away he was VERY ineffective.
Mark
May 6th, 2010
11:57 am
Let me be clear. He is a fine young man. If my son grows up to have his same values I will consider myself a VERY lucky man. That being said I just think that trading 3 picks to move up to take him in the first round and essentially giving the impression that he is the next face of your franchise seems pretty absurd. Drafting in say the 3rd round or later to see if in fact he has what it takes just seems way more realistic.
PMC
May 6th, 2010
11:58 am
People just misunderstood the Falcons priorities. That happens a lot for national people who aren’t that close to a team. They look and see Abraham a bit old and what they have on the other side and say… Pass Rush is the biggest issue.
The Falcons though have had trouble at outside linebacker since they titanically botched the Ed Hartwell deal. Hartwell was a bum and they cut their quality MLB in Chris Draft to get him. Due to Hartwells injuries and general worthlessness they forced Brooking inside where he was out of position for the last few relevant years of his career. The Falcons have been middling to awful at outside linebacker since.
So thier biggest issues, namely run defense inside on the DL the Secondary, and the inability to get off the field on 3rd down due to the inability of the linebackers to cover short routes were thier real issues. They had no depth at DT so they got Peters. They had guys potentially leaving next year so they fortified the OL. They had a gaping hole at WLB in coverage and as a blitzer age and no depth so they got Weatherspoon. They have addressed the end spot in previous drafts and they have several capable players on the roster. So they got Weatherspoon who they believe is the best OLB in the draft to fit thier purposes.
At that time in the draft there was a better linebacker than there were DE’s. I don’t think they took another DE because there weren’t ones available they felt that would really suit thier needs. That will certainly be a priority next season.
1eyedJack
May 6th, 2010
11:58 am
Dan, who is Charles Olsen?
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:58 am
He will be a star at this level too Mark. The NFL has been going to the wildcat more and more and Offenses will evolve into more of a spread type over the next 5 years. They just havent had a qb to run it. Those 2 games I mentioned, IF you watched them, on the game winning drives he was only throwing the ball.
Mark
May 6th, 2010
11:59 am
Personally I don’t think Bradford or McCoy will have much success either. I think Clausen however will.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
11:59 am
1eyed jack, thats the way Patrick spells Orsen Charles. He tries, but when he gets out of rehab early, he transposes words.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
12:00 pm
Clausen is as good as he will get, thats why Carolina drafted another qb in the draft. McCoy will succeed and so will Bradford if healthy.
TheManMike
May 6th, 2010
12:03 pm
Ron Mexico
Is that you?
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
12:09 pm
Mark, one additional comment about Tebow and thats all, cause even I kinda get tired of talking and reading about him. The reason Denver traded up because it is pretty well documented that Minnesota would have picked him at 31 and Buffalo was rumored to have been trying to trade up and if he would have slid to the 2nd round Belichek would of grabbed him with one of his 3 picks. You are right he is very unconventional, but several NF teams have visited Gainesville over the past 2 seasons to learn about Meyers version of the spread. If Richt ever gets another Charlie Ward type I believe he will go back to it like he did at FSU.
1eyedJack
May 6th, 2010
12:09 pm
most interesting man alive….maybe he was trying to speak French…in Russian?
DP
May 6th, 2010
12:13 pm
To “The most interesting man”, what NFL team other than the Dolphins (who don’t have a great QB) runs the wildcat as a significant part of its offense? The Broncos didn’t draft Tebow to run a Florida style spread offense, which would get killed against NFL front sevens. Nobody in the NFL is going to a spread offense and my guess is that more and more college teams will go away from it. Mack Brown says that Texas lost their power running game in the spread and will strive for more balance this year.
But I agree with you that Tebow’s passing skills have been unfairly maligned because of his long throwing motion. I think he will become a good NFL QB, albeit a pretty conventional one.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
12:13 pm
1eyed, Patrick is one whacked dude. I know everyone loves their team but dude just gets caught up in weird facts that prove nothing. We’ve all heard the sayin: stats are for losers.
Brock
May 6th, 2010
12:15 pm
Thirty Points to your Twenty-Four Points –
pretty sad when you are that obsessed about another team you deem irrelevant, to immediatley hurl insults about nothing to do with the story. I would be embarrassed to be a fellow fan. Keep it up St Simons. You can’t be older than 12. If you are, then it makes sense. If you’re not, then your life must be really pathetic.
GT BABY
May 6th, 2010
12:16 pm
1 eyed jack- you’re an idiot!
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
12:17 pm
Dolphins, 49ers, Raiders, Eagles and even the Cowboys have experimented with it. None had anyone that could really throw out it. Don’t beleive that it will become dominant just something thats used more and more. Mack Brown was kind of like Urban though, what are you going to change when you have QB’s like McCoy and Tebow who can run and throw? Both of those teams will try to become more balanced this year.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
12:18 pm
GT Baby are you richard craniums love child?
Brock
May 6th, 2010
12:23 pm
Jeff Schultz
May 6th, 2010
10:34 am
Thirty Points to your … Gotta admit: that Tech/bowls/marijuana line made me laugh.
Jeff- how long have you been posting articles on for the AJC? Years I assume. And you have never heard or seen this posted? It’s like the oldest joke in college football. This guy no doubt saw it on a blog once and now continuously posts it as being original. Bulldog fans are originally unoriginal.
DP
May 6th, 2010
12:25 pm
I think if you look at 2009 versus 2008 in the NFL, other than Miami the spread was used less and less. Philly had Vick for nothing but the wildcat and he barely played.
Ted M
May 6th, 2010
12:27 pm
Has Peria Jerry recovered. Is he running yet? What’s his status?
GT BABY
May 6th, 2010
12:28 pm
the most interesting- do u love on your sister u sick redneck! go back to your double wide.
SEC East Headlines – 5/6/10 « MrSEC.com
May 6th, 2010
12:30 pm
[...] put down their bongs long enough to listen.)3. UGA fans can’t like the fact that receiver AJ Green is getting so much 2011 draft pub.4. Green and Brandon Boykin could both leave Georgia after their upcoming junior seasons.5. Is [...]
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
12:30 pm
DP, I guess we will see. Most of those other Heismans that were flukes were seniors. Staubach was a junior when he won it. Not saying that Tebow could be that great, but so far everyone who has bet against him have been wrong. He played in a conference that has the most physical athletic Defenses in college ball and was successful. Would you bet on him or against him. One big reason I would bet on him is Mel Kiper wouldn’t. Just sayin…………
Riley Cooper
May 6th, 2010
12:31 pm
I hope Boykin comes out early.
Reality Check
May 6th, 2010
12:31 pm
Wow, how many artciles is this on AJ Greens draft status for next year, are we reaching for something positive to talk about staff writers. I guess this is how area sports writers publicly admit they don’t want to talk about Dawg football next season. Are the Marlon Brown draft prediction articles next?
Badger Bob
May 6th, 2010
12:31 pm
Gabe Carimi is actually from Wisconsin …and replaced a pretty decent LT (Joe Thomas). Keep an eye on him as a top pick next year.
GT Baby
May 6th, 2010
12:32 pm
Go see Pauls Johnson.
LizDawg
May 6th, 2010
12:32 pm
It’s obvious to all that see AJ play that Green is > than Calvin “2-Catch” Johnson.
The most interesting man alive
May 6th, 2010
12:34 pm
GT Baby I would say that you are the one that’s sick. Go visit your classmates in Pakistan.