Grading Falcons’ draft picks, from Roddy (A) to Jimmy (ugh)
Falcons owner Arthur Blank had no idea at this point the money he was about to waste on Jimmy Williams (center in suit and tie).
So in my last post, I explained why grading teams for their draft was a stupid exercise. It takes at least three years, sometimes longer, to get an accurate read 0n how selections panned out. And then alert reader “David C” suggested: “A good idea going forward would be to note the grades of so-called experts and writers from 5 years back and then we’d all know who is the expert and who is the hack.”
That would be a good idea. But honestly, I don’t want to take the time to find what ESPN, SI, Fox or Bob’s Second-Guessing Blog Out Of My Mom’s Basement wrote five years ago. I figure we can do this ourselves. So following are the Falcons’ drafts from 2003 to 2007. (Technically, we’ve only had two seasons to grade the 2007 draft, the last one under former general manager Rich McKay, but former first-round pick Jamaal Anderson certainly has given us some early indication of what he is and isn’t.)
Now, before you launch into the McKay bashing, please note that the 2005 draft turned out to be as solid as they come. The 2003-07 drafts follow. I’ve listed all the players, comments and my final grade. Please weigh in with your own grades.
(Note that players still on the Falcons’ roster are in red.)
2003 (F)
2 – Bryan Scott, DB, Penn State
4 – Justin Griffith, RB, Mississippi State
5 – Jon Olinger, WR, Cincinnati
6 – LaTarence Dunbar, WR, Texas Christian
6 – Waine Bacon, DB, Alabama
7 – Demetrin Veal, DE, Tennessee
I guess this was kind of like when two of the Axis powers briefly joined forces. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
(Posting a correction here: McKay was not hired until late in the 2003 season. This draft was conducted by the team of Dan Reeves and Ron Hill.) Scott was a good kid, just not a great player. The Falcons gave him every opportunity but he couldn’t stick as a starter or even a backup. Now he’s in Buffalo, which usually means it’s the end of the line. Griffith managed to [play seven years in the league without really doing much (he's unsigned now after being releases by his last two teams, Oakland and Seattle). Veal has been a survivor: five seasons with four teams in the NFL and last season with the Florida Tuskers of the UFL.
♦
2004 (B) (2 pro bowls)
1 - DeAngelo Hall, DB, Virginia Tech
1 - Michael Jenkins, WR, Ohio State
3 - Matt Schaub, QB, Virginia
4 - Demorrio Williams, LB, Nebraska
5 - Chad Lavalais, DT, Louisiana State
6 - Etric Pruitt, DB, Southern Mississippi
7 - Quincy Wilson, RB, West Virginia
Hall was a royal pain and isn't nearly as good as he thinks he is, but he did make two Pro Bowls early in his career (2005-06). A little more dedication and discipline and he could've been one of the league's best. Jenkins is serviceable as a No. 3 receiver. He hasn't proven to be a consistent No. 2, although the Falcons are going to give him another chance. In any case, he certainly wasn't worthy of being picked in the first round. Schaub developed into a starting quarterback for Houston. Williams has had a solid NFL career: four with the Falcons, two in Kansas City, where he has mostly started. Lavalais was a huge disappointment, largely because he was a fat schlub. Wilson didn't quite have the career of his father, former Bears Pro Bowl linebacker Otis Wilson,
♦
2005 (A)
1 - Roddy White, WR, Alabama-Birmingham
2 - Jonathan Babineaux, DT, Iowa
3 - Jordan Beck, LB, Cal Poly
4 - Chauncey Davis, DE, Florida State
5 - Michael Boley, LB, Southern Mississippi
5 - Frank Omiyale, T, Tennessee Tech (starts for bears)
6 - Deandra Cobb, RB, Michigan State
7 - Darrell Shropshire, DT South Carolina
Roddy White (84) is an example of why you shouldn't judge drafts right away. Michael Jenkins (12) still has a lot to prove. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
This was one of McKay’s best drafts. White, after a slow career start, turned into a Pro Bowl wide receiver. Babineaux has proven to be a strong inside force, but he has had off-field issues. He was accused of killing his girlfriend’s pitbull (charges were dropped) and he was arrested on marijuana possession charges last December (a suspension could be forthcoming). Beck didn’t stick and is out of football. Davis has contributed for five seasons. Boley turned out to be a strong player but personal issues and a decline in performance in 2008 led the Falcons to not re-sign him in 2009. He signed with the New York Giants but was suspended for the first game of the season for violating the league’s personal conduct policy (charged with battery on his wife). Omiyale spent only two seasons with the Falcons but he started most of last season with Chicago.
♦
2006 (D-minus)
2 – Jimmy Williams, DB, Virginia Tech
3 – Jerious Norwood, RB, Mississippi State
5 – Quinn Ojinnaka, T, Syracuse (serviceable)
6 – Adam Jennings, WR, Fresno State
7 – D.J. Shockley, QB, Georgia
Williams defined the word “bust” in three ways. He was a bust as a cornerback: He couldn’t cover. He was a bust as a professional athlete: He lacked dedication and discipline. And he was “busted” by commissioner Roger Goodell. Williams was suspended for the first five games of 2008 after being arrested for marijuana possession and spent the entire season out of football. He was signed by San Francisco in January of 2009 but cut five months later, then was suspended for the entire season for a second violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. Norwood has speed and big-play capability, but he lacks consistency and hasn’t stayed healthy. Ojinnaka is a serviceable player in the offensive line rotation. Jennings played three seasons here, primarily as a returner. Shockley couldn’t win the No. 2 quarterback job last season when it was wide open.
♦
2007 (D)
1 – Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
2 – Justin Blalock, T, Texas
2 – Chris Houston, DB, Arkansa
3 – Laurent Robinson, WR, Illinois State
4 – Stephen Nicholas, LB, South Florida
4 – Martrez Milner, TE, Georgia
6 – Trey Lewis, DT, Washburn
6 – David Irons, DB, Auburn
6 – Doug Datish, C, Ohio State
6 – Daren Stone, DB, Maine
Anderson was serviceable when he was moved inside last season because his height allowed him to get into a quarterback’s vision and possibly bat down passes. But he was a first-round pick – serviceable won’t cut it. He’s not an impact player. Blalock starts at left guard. Houston was burnt often last season and traded. Robinson flashed some talent early but ultimately washed out. Stephen Nicholas started most of last season, but that may change this year. Lewis is barely hanging on.
♦
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128 comments Add your comment
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
12:32 pm
JSS: At least Bryon Scott is still in the league. Albeit Buffalo, but still.
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
12:34 pm
Enter your comments here
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
12:34 pm
Whoops
Mystikal
April 26th, 2010
12:36 pm
I must say after now witnessing the past few drafts that unless you have a sure fire prospect to go on it is more beneficial to trade down and accumulate more picks or trade picks for players. Being that so many first rounders don’t pan out and are such large investments financially. That is how the Colts and Pats haave had success for so long. Plus picking guys in later rds that have been looked over gives them that extra chip on their shoulder and makes them want to prove ppl wrong. There is less pressure on those guys to produce and teams don’t invest so much.
jkos
April 26th, 2010
12:38 pm
Snelling was arguably the MVP of the team last year…a guy who leads the team in special teams tackles while also rushing for over 600 yards and he’s not even included in the analysis of the ‘07 draft.
Andray Bruce
April 26th, 2010
12:40 pm
I’m the biggest bust in Falcon history JSS!
t_height
April 26th, 2010
12:41 pm
Out of all of those draft picks, i only see 3 or 4 guys thats worthy of the pick. This year’s draft seem as though the falcons were drafting people to work in the front office. They drafted players with high GP
A’s in college. That doesn’t make them any smarter on the field and of the game.
SWAT Native
April 26th, 2010
12:45 pm
Three thoughts on your column and related comments. I agree with several posters that you can’t grade the 2007 draft an F when it produced several starters. Second, if I were the Falcons, I would take Justin Griffith back today. Third, to the guy that compared Ray Lewis to Big Ben: Ray never killed anyone, he was with someone that did. You would be more accurate to compare him to one of Ben’s “security guards”.
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
12:48 pm
t_height: Maybe drafting smart guys is a commentary on the intelligence of the current roster. Just needed to brighten-up-the-room a bit if you will.
JSS
April 26th, 2010
12:48 pm
@ Mr. Phil
He was supposed to be our “shutdown” corner! Bust! Eric Berry circa 2003 with safety hitting power and corner coverage skills. Of course Reeves was wrong once again!
Balderdash
April 26th, 2010
12:49 pm
T.J. Duckett actually got onto the field. I can’t see him as a bigger bust than Jimmy Williams.
Colorado bulldog
April 26th, 2010
12:51 pm
Agree with several comments that no way you can give 07 an F. Blalock is not just a starter, he is a solid LG. Nicholas is starting LB. Robinson may start next year for Rams.
Granted the biggest miss was Anderson at #8 and it’s huge. The list of Defensive ProBowlers picked after him is long – Willis, Revis, Griffin (S with TEN), Meriweather (S – NE), Beason (LB – Car), Woodley (DE – Pitt, 2R pick), and DeOssie (LB – NYG, 4R pick).
I’d give it a C.
Yoda
April 26th, 2010
12:52 pm
28%, so what’s the league average over that span?
JSS
April 26th, 2010
12:52 pm
@Aundray Bruce
No argument there Drago!
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
12:53 pm
JSS: Now we get to it. Your real problem is with Reeves. Not Bryon per se. Interesting.
JSS
April 26th, 2010
12:54 pm
The minute Duckett left Atlanta, he became a journeyman… BUST!
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
12:56 pm
I am not saying B Scott is a serviceable or anything near what he was expected to be. I am just saying MULTIPLE coaches have determined Jimmy Williams isn’t even good enough to give him a shot. That’s saying something.
Ben Roethlisberger
April 26th, 2010
12:56 pm
RAAAHHHHHHHHHH
RUTH BABY!!!!!
BEN HUNGRY!!!!!
C3 Jim
April 26th, 2010
12:57 pm
57th! doesn’t that sound lame…
Great article and posts…liked Togo’s point on what we received in compensation for schaub, hall, etc. the talent difference between players can be miniscule. It’s as much about hunger, coachability, and the coaches themselves, thrown in with a little luck on the injury front, that can turn athletic talent into solid football players.
I’m thinking that TD and Smitty can get ‘er done for us…can’t wait for the start of fall ball
Jeff Schultz
April 26th, 2010
12:58 pm
Torgo — I understand the argument of, “We traded this pick for that player.” But I’m judging players drafted here, not trades. There really wasn’t much in the way of talent evaluation that needed to be done on Abraham.
JSS
April 26th, 2010
12:58 pm
Nope I have no problem with modern day Bud Grant (Reeves), he was just terrible at drafting, Byran (Byron) was 5th round talent at best, played like it too!
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
12:58 pm
Handful of starts trumps CAN’T EVEN GET ON THE FIELD everytime.
Jeff Schultz
April 26th, 2010
12:59 pm
Chc4 — Maybe. Blalock is solid. Nicholas is serviceable but not sure he’ll be starting next season. The top pick (Anderson) tipped it for me, but I could go “D” maybe.
Jeff Schultz
April 26th, 2010
1:01 pm
Delbert — Shockley was never going to be kept for the No. 3 job. It was No. 2 or nothing.
JSS
April 26th, 2010
1:01 pm
@ Mr. Phil
And multiple GM’s traded him too!
Dennis
April 26th, 2010
1:03 pm
The worst time I ever had at a Falcons game was the 1987 season ending loss to the Detroit Lions. Cold and rainy day, two bad teams, no crowd, and the Falcons lose. The only redeeming factor was to be that the loser got the number 1 pick in ‘88, and then the Falcons go and pick Aundray Bruce. The worst draft pick ever by the Falcons (and that is saying something) and one of the worst overall #1 picks in NFL history.
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
1:14 pm
Bottom Line from Wikipedia:
“Jimmy Williams
Williams was drafted in the second round (37th overall) of the 2006 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons. In his rookie season with the Falcons, Williams started five games and made 24 tackles. Cut the next season after a marijuana incident.
Bryan Scott
In his rookie season, Scott led all defensive backs with 63 tackles despite only starting six contests in 15 total games. Finished tied for team-high special teams with 13 tackles.
In 2004, he started all 16 games at strong safety and ranked third on the team with 85 tackles and 2.5 sacks, and one interception, including 7 tackles in the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Jimmy Williams sucked, B Scott sucks slightly less. And Scott still has time to salvage something of a career.
Jeff Schultz
April 26th, 2010
1:17 pm
Washedup — The Count will try to make up for that.
Jeff Schultz
April 26th, 2010
1:18 pm
F-105 Thunderchief: There were no off-the-field issues with Dwyer. I have no idea what that’s about.
Jeff Schultz
April 26th, 2010
1:19 pm
Danclot — You are correct, Rich came in late that season. Change was made in blog. Thanks for the catch.
StingerSplash
April 26th, 2010
1:21 pm
I still nominate Bruce Pickens for the Falcons’ “um, can we have that one back?” draft pick.
That, and Steve Broussard, when the next pick went to the Giants … Rodney Hampton.
Jeff Schultz
April 26th, 2010
1:23 pm
OK, there seems to be a consensus that I was too hard for giving an F to the 2007 draft class. I think the points are well taken so I’m going to raise it to a D. But that’s as high as I go, even with Blalock.
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
1:25 pm
@Jeff “I’m going to raise it to a D. But that’s as high as I go, even with Blalock.”
Fair enough.
JSS
April 26th, 2010
1:26 pm
Bottom line…
Both were BUSTS! At least Scott had the semblance of a work ethic, I’ll give him that…
Oh, I did find someone worse than Reeves at the draft, Pat Peppler’s 1974 fiasco, 17 rounds of crash and burn!
1974
2 – Gerald Tinker, WR Kent State
3 – Kim McQuilken, QB Lehigh
3 – Maurice Spencer, DB North Carolina Central
4 – Vince Kendrick, RB Florida
5 – Henry Childs, TE Kansas State
5 – Monroe Eley, RB Arizona State
6 – Doyle Orange, RB Southern Mississippi
7 – James Coode, T Michigan
9 – Larry Bailey, DT Pacific
10 – Paul Ryczek, C Virginia
11 – Eddie Wilson, WR Albany State
12 – Vic Koegel, LB Ohio State
13 – Ralph Powell, RB Nebraska
14 – John Givens, G Villanova
15 – Willie Jones, WR Iowa State
16 – Sylvester McGee, RB Rhode Island
17 – Al Davis, G Boise State
StingerSplash
April 26th, 2010
1:27 pm
Reasons why Atlanta needs to stay from picking Va. Tech players:
Michael Vick
MeAngelo
Jimmy Williams
Ken Oxendine (nice guy, though)
Darrel Slay (a 6th or 7th round pick, I think, but he didn’t stick.)
That’s a bad track record. Larry King has a better track record in matrimony. (Zing! Non smoking show at 8, two drink minimum for 10:30 show)
The next time the Falcons think about drafting a VPI player, every Falcon fan ought to throw up in their mouth.
Tucker T
April 26th, 2010
1:28 pm
It really is amazing that Jamaal Anderson is still on this team considering how unproductive he has been. Is it possible he gets cut prior to the season starting?
JSS
April 26th, 2010
1:33 pm
@StingerSplash
With the exception of two seasons from Al Richardson, when has anyone from Tech or UGA done anything when chosen by the Birds? Leave schools out of it…
SOUTH GA DAWG FAN
April 26th, 2010
1:38 pm
say you draft 7 players and 1 of them turns into a star and rest wash out in a couple of years is that draft class a bust ? Speaking of bust How Long to we have to carry Anderson unless we trade him (good luck on takers) what is the length of his contract ?
Gwinnett Fred
April 26th, 2010
1:38 pm
Gotta wonder if the Birds would have taken A.Peterson if he didn’t go 1 pick before they took JA-2, The Bust.
If you really want to be sickened even more by the 2007 draft, here is what we COULD have drafted:
1-Darrell Revis (pro bowl cornerback) instead of Anderson
2-I’ll stick with Blalock, he’s not THAT bad
2-Lamar Woodley (pro bowl defensive end) instead of Houston
3-Steve Breaston (starting WR this coming year) insted of Robinson
4-Zak DeOssie (pro bowl linebacker) instead of Nicholas
4-LeRon McClain (pro bowl fullback) instead of Milner
That draft is the one that really set us back. I mean you have 4 of the first 75 picks (and 6 of top 133) and just TWO years later only 3 of the six are even on the team and only 1 starting????
For real
April 26th, 2010
1:41 pm
I agree with G-Fred, total justification to keep the 2007 draft an “F”.
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
1:41 pm
JSS: I can honestly say I do not recognize a single name off that list.
JSS
April 26th, 2010
1:42 pm
@Gwinnett Fred…
Exactly!!!
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
1:45 pm
Guys its been nice. Gotta go.
ChippersLoveChild
April 26th, 2010
1:47 pm
Pretty sure every team could go back and play that game Gwinnett Fred, that really isn’t the best arguement for why a draft class isn’t that great.
TheOnlyJamalBacker
April 26th, 2010
1:49 pm
I agree with your …”D. But that’s high as I go…”. The F was harsh….at the time, Rich McKay wasn’t aware he needed a starting QB and perhaps felt the luxury gambling a first round pick on a physical specimen / project in JA.
JA was not a football player at Arkansas…he was a basketball player so physically gifted he excelled on the SEC football field. JA is still not a football player and yet he manages to tread water in the NFL and by your admission it is doing so partly because of the physical tools. I worry more about his ability to finish a season but even that part of his game shows in the Falcon’s dropoff in run defense at the end of the last 2 seasons without JA.
If JA ever learns how to play football then he will collect the stats you stat junkies so require. In the meantime, he has the physical tools the Falcons need in their rotation (all NFL teams need a D-LINE ROTATION) and is a definite keeper that wasn’t worth the #8 slot used to aquire him.
SWAT Native
April 26th, 2010
1:54 pm
…and by the way, Justin Blalock was a steal in the 2nd round as an All American!
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
1:55 pm
had to come back. This is just too good a topic.
@TheOnlyJamalBacker
You must be affiliated with the team or the AJC. I mean C’mon. Are really Jamal?
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
1:56 pm
OMG MR. Dimitroff?
torgo
April 26th, 2010
1:59 pm
Jeff – you’ve made the correction on Reeves doing the 2003 draft, but you still haven’t made the other correction I noted earlier: you left out Jason Snelling as part of the 2007 draft class.
That’s a rather significant omission. Snelling ought to make the grade a D+ and perhaps even a C- when combined with starters Nicholas and Blalock.
Mr. Phil
April 26th, 2010
1:59 pm
I can give the Birds credit for at least getting something out of JA (a tackle here and there, Rest for other players) before his contract is up. And I will be the first to apologize if he ever turns into a legitimate threat.
But if we can’t call him a Bust, you gotta admit he has been very Bust-like.