Draft report card: Graders get an F, Falcons get 3 to 5 years
This is Mel Kiper. I don't particularly like what he does, and I certainly don't like his hair.
I was going to start this by saying what a stupid exercise it is for media members to “grade” an NFL teams’ drafts every year, and then I found something written by Rob Rang of CBS Sports that supplies the perfect analogy:
“Grading a draft immediately after it concludes is akin to giving your compliments to the chef before the meal has been served. Sure, the food might sound good (or bad) based on the ingredients listed on the menu, but the true review can’t be done until after the product has been tested.”
Think about it. I’ve had 17,000 plates of fettucini alfredo in my [ever-shortening] life. Sometimes, I wanted to marry it. Other times, I want to use it as spackle. Now, I may know my body NEEDS fettucini alfredo (go with it). But can I really give myself an A for making the right choice of fettucini alfredo on the menu, especially when the name of the restaurant is “Pedro’s”?
That didn’t come out right. But the point is, while I can know the Falcons need help at outline linebacker and on the defensive and offensive lines, I can’t know if Thomas Dimitroff picked the right players until after we’ve seen them play?.
You might’ve noticed: There’s no scoreboard at drafts.
And, dude: Please don’t come to the table with: “The guy shouldn’t have been drafted. EVERBODY knows it. I heard it on ESPN!”
Here’s what I know: The non-experts don’t know because the fact is even the experts don’t really know. Every year there are first-round busts and sixth-round Pro Bowlers. Drafts take three to five years to accurately judge.
All we can do is judge whether our team seemed to fill the right positions and didn’t do anything obviously stupid, like draft a player with five kids, seven DUIs or ever once uttered the phrase, “I see nothing wrong with dog fighting.”
So with that as a backdrop, I’ve compiled a list of “grades” from “experts.” They range from B to C-minus. They are for entertainment purposes only.
But before getting to the report cards, following is some actual serious analysis from a guy named Nolan Nawrocki, a respected draft analyst from Pro Football Weekly. Here’s his take on each of the Falcons’ seven draft picks:
♦ Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri: With Mike Peterson aging and playing undisciplined football, Weatherspoon adds youth to the Falcons’ linebacking unit. He is big, fast and flies to the ball. His play dropped off as a senior after he bulked up, but he looked much more comfortable after dropping weight at the Senior Bowl. The biggest challenge he will face upon entering the pros will be keeping his ego in check and not alienating veterans in the locker room.
♦ Corey Peters, DT, Kentucky: The Falcons concentrated on shoring up the the middle of their defense with the selections of Weatherspoon and Peters. Peters is a developmental three-technique with the quickness to add some value on third downs. With the injuries that struck the interior defensive line last season, depth was much needed.
♦ Mike Johnson, G, Alabama: With Harvey Dahl and Tyson Clabo restricted free agents and Justin Blalock entering a contract year, the Falcons needed some depth on the right side of their line, and Mike Johnson could provide it. He was a versatile performer on a national championship line and has the toughness and competitiveness to function ably in the NFL’s trenches.
♦ Joe Hawley, C, UNLV: The Falcons had a need in the middle of their line with Todd McClure aging, and they may have found a suitable replacement in Hawley . He may not look the part, but he is tough, scrappy and competitive and has the type of football temperament to play in the NFL a long time. He could also provide depth at guard, where he played as a senior.
♦ Dominique Franks, CB, Oklahoma: Hawley could bring the most value to the Falcons as a return man. He looks the part and has an intriguing physical skill set, but too many inconsistencies showed up on tape in college. He could compete for a job as a No. 4 or No. 5 corner.
♦ Kerry Meier, WR, Kansas: A converted quarterback, [Meier] has the dependable hands to stick as a No. 4 or No. 5 possession receiver with the Falcons, and could bring added value in the locker room with strong intangibles. He should earn a roster spot and has a chance to contribute.
♦ Shann Schillinger, S, Montana: [Schillinger] quickly came off the board to the Falcons and has the temperament to make the roster as a special-teams kamikaze.
The judges weigh in with their opinions after a draft pick at Radio City Music Hall in New York Thursday night.
And now, here’s are some of the grades:
♦ Mel Kiper, ESPN (C-minus): “ Sean Weatherspoon is a good outside linebacker and has the strength and size to start and be productive in this league, but after that, it’s a lot of wishful thinking. Corey Peters was a slight reach on my board even at 83 and has a ways to go to improve his skills. Joseph Hawley has a chance to develop, but a pair of guards and no tight end or even a shot at a defensive end surprises me. I don’t see an improved football team. (Note: Kiper also gave out C-minuses to Miami, Denver, Washington and Minnesota. The only team with a lower grade was Jacksonville with a D.”
♦ John Czarnecki, Fox Sports (B) (who’s solid and I’ve known for years, going back to NFL beat writing days in Los Angeles): “The Falcons concentrated on filling needs with Missouri OLB Sean Weatherspoon, possibly the most complete linebacker in the draft. He can cover and also rush the passer. To beef up the defensive line, Kentucky DT Corey Peters was taken with the 83rd overall pick and he should be a run stuffer. Alabama guard Mike Johnson is a physical run blocker and gives the Falcons some much needed depth at the position. Johnson started 41 consecutive games and played in a school-record 54 games. You have to remember, too, that the Falcons used a second-round pick on Tony Gonzalez, who paid huge dividends last season to Matt Ryan and the offense. Weatherspoon should be a starter. Guard Joe Hawley provided much-need depth. Oklahoma CB Dominique Franks knows how to play, but does he possess NFL speed and quickness?”
♦ Ross Tucker, Sports Illustrated (he didn’t give grades, just opinions): “What I liked: The selection of Sean Weatherspoon, ranked by some as the top linebacker in the draft, to immediately start at outside linebacker next to tackling machine Curtis Lofton. What I didn’t: The Falcons still don’t have a legitimate pass-rusher opposite John Abraham and even he isn’t the player he used to be. Moving forward: Signing Dunta Robinson in free agency and getting last year’s first round pick, Peria Jerry, back from injury gives this defense enough juice to compete with the New Orleans Saints for the NFC South division title.”
♦ Rob Rang, CBS Sports (B-minus) (who did this despite denouncing the exercise) “The Atlanta Falcons struck gold a few years ago with the selection of undersized linebacker Curtis Lofton in the second round. They went back to the Big 12 for another speedy playmaker with Sean Weatherspoon in the first. Expected to take over the weak-side position, Weatherspoon is ideal in Atlanta’s cover-two scheme, as is third-round pick Corey Peters, an underrated defensive tackle who several teams were targeting. Offensive guard Mike Johnson and center Joe Hawley provide solid depth. Cornerback Dominique Franks slipped to the fifth round, but has the length and straight-line speed to be effective in this scheme.”
♦ Pete Prisco, CBS Sports (B-minus): “Best pick: Third-round guard Mike Johnson is a tough guy from Alabama who will fit right in with the Falcons’ style of linemen. He is insurance for Justin Blalock, who has one year left on his deal. Questionable move: I wasn’t enamored with first-round pick Sean Weatherspoon as much as the Falcons were. I think he’s a bit overrated. Third-day gem: Cornerback Dominique Franks from Oklahoma is a talented player. He does have some character issues. But he could push for time as a nickel corner. Analysis: They were hoping a defensive end fell to them in the first round, but when the top ends went they took Weatherspoon. The rest of the draft was mostly spent trying to improve the defense. They landed some solid players.”
♦ Clifton Brown, The Sporting News (B-minus): “Linebacker Sean Weatherspoon has a chance to fill a need. The defensive line could be improved if defensive tackle Corey Peters contributes, along with defensive tackle Peria Jerry, who missed last season with a knee injury. If they become better on defense, particularly against the pass, the Falcons could return to the playoffs.”
So those are some of the grades.
Care to grade the graders?
♦
Earlier Falcons draft posts
♦ Falcons’ additions will get them back into playoffs
♦ Falcons still need linemen (and Weatherspoon video-palooza)
♦ Weatherspoon helps Falcons fix the right side of the ball
♦ Draft night (LIVE): Behind the scenes at Falcons’ HQ
♦ Draft day (Part II): Tebow top 15, Morgan to Falcons?
♦ Draft day (Part I): Falcon options; Berry rips Deion; Tebow to Vikes?
♦
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164 comments Add your comment
Sid
April 26th, 2010
10:56 am
North FLA Falcon: I know we lost 2 games last year due to the field goal team but I just can’t recall ever feeling like the snap was the problem. My recollection was it was all on Elam, he just went mental on us.
mountain_jim
April 26th, 2010
10:57 am
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/04/25/draft/1.html
F-105 Thunderchief
April 26th, 2010
10:57 am
Tony Pauline (girl’s name) writes this on SI.com: “Jonathan Dwyer/Rd 6 No. 188/Pittsburgh: Dwyer’s off-the-field exploits from the combine were well documented prior to the start of the draft. Transgressions aside, he’s a terrific interior ball carrier who produces on the football field and was worth a roll of the dice in round six.”
My question is this: What off-field exploits? I don’t remember Dwyer being anything but a good guy on or off the field. Is this a guy who is confusing the ADD medication thing with Dwyer being a druggie? If so, he needs to be called on it … big time.
ryan
April 26th, 2010
11:09 am
The Falcons could have used Everson Griffen it would have added some debth there also there was Ricky Sapp and they could have drafted Aaron Hernandez TE could have another Dallas Clark.
L.Luciano
April 26th, 2010
11:12 am
Three things:
1) To ” Safety first”: kipers hair hasn’t protected him from a head injury so using it to pad helmets is moot.
2) Falcons did ok – let’s see who they get via trades
3) am I the only one who recognized what Jeff was really talking about here?? His plea for help re: his fettucine Alfredo addiction. Jeff here’s what you’re looking for: http://foodnetwork.mobi/quickPage.html?page=24236&cc=recipeDetails.html%3Frid%3D101105%26tn%3D%26p%3Ds%26s%3D0%26kw%3DFettuccine%2BAlfredo%26rs%3D
Matt "Choke" Ryan
April 26th, 2010
1:04 pm
Dimitroff & Smith are clueless.
Why is that………….
- The Ravens had a rookie coach & qb and made the Championship game?
- The Jets had a rookie coach & qb and made the Championship game?
Hell, even Jim Mora, Jr. took the Falcons to the Championship game in his 1st season.
Dimitroff is all hype and Smith gets more attention from losing his temper and attacking other players.
The bottom line is this:
The Falcons said Mora/McKay/Vick were terrible, yet this franchise hasn’t won a playoff game, played in a championship game or won a division title since Mora/McKay/Vick.
So what does that say about this regime?
We shall see when the Ravens play the Falcons just who is the better qb/coach/gm.
R. Merriweather
April 26th, 2010
2:46 pm
As for me, I actually like the Falcons’ Draft. At first I was like many of you who was completely dumbfounded about some of the picks (i.e. Peters 3rd Round), but after having a chance to analyze and evaluate our team, we’re exactly where we need to be.
On our defensive line, I do believe however that we are putting too much faith in John Abraham staying healthy again for a complete season. Let’s not forget that he is 31 (Will be 32 in May), and has had a career plagued by groin injuries. I look for Kroy Biermann to start opposite of Abraham to begin the season, and for Lawrence Sidbury to replace him in two years when his contract is up. Look for Sidbury and Anderson to be in the rotation to start the season. However, I do like Anderson on Running situations since he is more of a ‘run stopping’ DE compared to Sidbury and Biermann.
In regards to our Defensive Tackle positions, look for Peria Jerry to have a full recovery and an immediate impact this year. His presence in the middle should create more one-on-one situations for John Abraham. The Cory Peters signing was nothing but a mere safety net since it looks as if we will be starting the season without Jonathan Babineaux for the first four games (Off the field issues; Suspension may be looming) But look for Babineaux to have a big year as well. He is in my opinion one of the most underrated and over-looked DT’s in the league. Thomas Johnson and Cory Peters will solidify the rotation. Look for Vance Walker to join the practice squad and Trey Lewis to be cut. (Trey Lewis once showed a lot of promise, but two knee injuries in different knees may be too much for him to overcome)
With the addition of Sean Weatherspoon (If he lives up to expectations), we now have a solid tandem of young linebackers for years to come. I look for Weatherspoon to compete with Mike Peterson for the starting outside linebacker spot. Although I do believe the spot to be won by Peterson (Since Mike Smith tends to be loyal to his former Jaguars players as former Defensive Coordinator), look for Weattherspoon to start by the middle of the season if Mike Peterson continues to be a liability on passing situations. However, I completely expect Weatherspoon to step in as the full time starter next year since Mike Peterson won’t return since his contract will be up. As for those of you who believe that Weatherspoon will be competing with Stephen Nicholas, you have completely lost your minds. Let’s not forget that Nicholas is a promising linebacker out of South Florida who had a solid year last year for a player who started for the first time in his career. Althogh his numbers aren’t too flashy, he still put up a solid year. (80 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 3 Safeties Recorded, 2 Fumble Recoveries & 1 Forced Fumble). Like I said, not too bad for a guy starting for the first time in his career.
Our secondary should be improved drastically, but I’m a strong believer that your secondary is only as good as your pass rush. Hopefully with an improved pass rush this year, look for our secondary to have a better year. The addition of Dunta Robinson should help tremendously. I look for Brian Williams and Christopher Owens to compete for the other starting CB position. However, with strong play by Owens during the final few games of last season, I believe that he will beat Williams out for the starting #2 CB spot. (Only because Williams is coming off of a season-ending ACL injury, and it’s just hard for me to see him regaining his old form at 31 Years Old.) Look for Williams, Grimes, and new incumbent Dominique Franks to all compete for the Nickel Corner spot. Unfortunately, either Grimes or Williams will either move to the #4 CB spot or either be cut.
The Safety position will be the most exciting to watch heading into training camp. Look for Thomas DeCoud to have a break out year this year at the FS position. William Moore and Erik Coleman will battle it out in training camp for the starting SS position. The coaches are extremly high on William Moore and they believe that Moore and DeCoud could eventually give them one of the best young safety tandems in the league. Erik Coleman showed that he was great in coming in the box and stopping the run last season, but was a real liability in pass coverage. Look for Moore to win the starting SS Position over Coleman, and for Coleman to be traded before Pre-Season starts since he still has value at 27 years old. Look for Matt Giordano (Who we signed from Green Bay during the offseason), and our rookie Shan Shillinger to fill out the Depth Chart. Look for Charlie Peprah and Eric Brock to be cut.
This is my analysis of the Falcons’s Defensive Unit and how it will play out and why it was that I feel comfortable with who we drafted. Although we didn’t “light up” the draft board of Todd McShay and Mel Kiper of ESPN with flashy players, we know our needs better than any analyst. So for some idiot analyst to say we didn’t improve our team, obviously should be fired for not looking at our Depth Chart before making such an absurd statement. Where we appear to be weak at going into the draft, we were either very young/developing players last year or we were hurt.
Look for the Falcons to make a strong push into the playoffs this year barring any major injuries to one of our key players, and to have a 2010-2011 Season To Remember.
enz
April 26th, 2010
3:01 pm
Nice one Augusta fan…
I think Meier will prove to be a steal and will have a Finneran-like career. Hopefully Johnson or Hawley can be a center like McClure, not flashingly athletic but just gets the job done day in and out…
enz
April 26th, 2010
3:05 pm
Love all of your analysis Merriweather…You really know your stuff.
R. Merriweather
April 26th, 2010
3:21 pm
Thanks ‘Enz’. Unlike many people who come on here and just speak nonsense, I actually keep up with the Falcons (Extensively). I read everything from rumors, blogs, etc. And that’s what I believe the responsibility of a “True” fan should consist of. Not come one here and speculate. If you are a true fan you should know your team and why it is that they amke the decisions and the moves that they make. That’s why the draft didn’t surprise me that much because I know every situation regarding every player in this year’s draft.
What many people don’y realize either, is that in the 3rd Round of this year’s draft, the Cleveland Browns also had DT Cory Peters on the top of their draft board and were going to take him with the 85th Pick. Because we took him with our 83rd Pick, they therefore took QB Colt McCoy instead. So he wasn’t that much of a reach if a team two spots below us was targeting him as well. That’s just a little inside scoop of what these experts who are paid millions of dollars fail to tell us.
SuperToddLong
April 26th, 2010
8:32 pm
Draft grades make it fun! How can you pick on Mel Kiper and his hair. I get the point of the article, but no draft grades and no Mel….well you can just take Christmas away too while your at it.
Carte projet de rapport: niveleuses obtenir un f, faucons obtenir 3 à 5 ans
April 28th, 2010
1:43 pm
[...] C'est Mel Kiper. Je n'aime pas particulièrement ce qu'il fait, et je n'ai certainement pas comme ses cheveux. Je vais commencer en disant ce qu'est un exercice stupide, il est pour les membres des médias à «grade» NFL équipes rédige un chaque année, et alors j'ai trouvé quelque chose d'écrit par Rob Rang de CBS Sports qui fournit l'analogie parfaite: «Le classement d'un projet immédiatement après qu'il conclut s'apparente à donner vos compliments au chef avant le repas a été servi. Bien sûr, la nourriture peut sembler bonne (ou mauvaise) sur la base des ingrédients énumérés dans le menu, mais l'examen véritable ne peut se faire qu'après le produit a été testé. "Pensez-y. J'ai eu 17.000 plaques de fettucini alfredo dans mon [toujours raccourcissement de la vie]. Parfois, je voulais l'épouser. D'autres fois, je veux l'utiliser comme spackle. Maintenant, je sais que mon corps peut BESOINS fettucini alfredo (aller avec elle). Mais puis-je vraiment me donner un A pour faire le bon choix de fettucini alfredo sur le menu, en particulier lorsque le nom du restaurant est … URL article original: http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/04/25/draft-report-card-graders-get-an-f-falcons-get-3-t... [...]
MrHughes
April 28th, 2010
5:13 pm
I haven’t watched ESPN’s draft coverage the last two years. NFLn does a much better job!
Draft grades are a waste of time. That’s like grading your stock portfolio right after you make a trade. Ohh, Enron, a get an A. You can’t effectively grade a draft until you are at least 3-4 years out.
2006
2 5(37) Jimmy Williams S Virginia Tech
3 15(79) Jerious Norwood RB Mississippi St
5 6(139) Quinn Ojinnaka T Syracuse
6 15(184) Adam Jennings WR Fresno State
7 15(223) D.J. Shockley QB Georgia
D- The only player still on the team is Jerious. Injury problems have made him an average pro at best. Everyone else is off the roster or out of the NFL.
2007
1 8 Jamaal Anderson DE 6-5 288 Arkansas from Houston
2a 39 Justin Blalock T/G 6-3 320 Texas from Houston
2b 41 Chris Houston CB 5-9 185 Arkansas from Minnesota
3 75 Laurent Robinson WR 6-2 199 Illinois State
4a 109 Stephen Nicholas LB 6-1 232 South Florida
4b 133 Martrez Milner TE 6-3 252 Georgia Compensatory Selection
6a 185 Trey Lewis DT 6-3 318 Washburn
6b 194 David Irons CB 5-10 190 Auburn from Jacksonville
6c 198 Doug Datish C 6-4 302 Ohio State from Jax, thru Denver
6d 203 Daren Stone S 6-3 218 Maine from Jax, thru Baltimore
7 244 Jason Snelling RB 5-11 230 Virginia Compensatory Selection
C Jason Snelling was a 7th round pick!! Fantastic value!! He’s saves this class. Also, the fact that they got a two starters (Anderson And Nicolas) here saves this draft class.
A.J. Green ranked No. 4 in draft (and Bama's loaded again) | Jeff Schultz
May 6th, 2010
9:44 am
[...] I’ve made it pretty clear in the past that trying to grade NFL drafts immediately after the fact is a useless exercise, akin to reviewing a restaurant based on what’s on the menu. [...]