McLouth’s early chill raises some questions for Braves
There's a line somewhere about the bubble bursting on the Braves' season. But I won't go there yet.
It doesn’t make sense to panic only 31 at-bats into a regular season. So I suppose it doesn’t make sense to panic 31 at-bats into spring training. But is it too early to be concerned about Nate McLouth?
The Braves were not completely comfortable with McLouth as their leadoff hitter. We suspected that after he hit .256 last season, and it was confirmed when they pursued Johnny Damon in free agency, albeit belatedly. (Damon ultimately signed with Detroit for $8 million.)
After going 0-for-3 Thursday, McLouth is 1-for-31 in the spring. He has struck out 12 times. His batting average: .032. His on-base percentage: .114.
I emailed a question to Frank Wren, and his response was completely in line with that of any general manager’s in March: “There really isn’t concern. You only have to look at his career to know that he will get it going. Players have 30 at-bat slumps all the time. It only takes a couple of two-hit games and it’s all forgotten. He’s too good a player to worry about a spring drought.”
I know. It’s spring. We’re not supposed to pay attention to statistics in spring. But it’s also clear McLouth is TRYING to hit, not just work out the kinks. And isn’t it somewhat significant that manager Bobby Cox dropped him to sixth in the order Thursday?
“I’m getting there,” McLouth told our David O’Brien. “It’s frustrating not to get hits, regardless of whether it’s spring training. But I’d rather it happen now than in the season.”
McLouth doesn’t have to be great. But if the Braves don’t have even a competent leadoff hitter this season, they’re in trouble. Are you concerned yet?
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182 comments Add your comment
Jeff Schultz
March 19th, 2010
9:43 am
Nick — I made my suggestion early in the off-season: Johnny Damon. Braves jumped on late there, then Detroit offered more than expected. Not sure what would’ve happened if they jumped on early … As for now, obviously you go into season trying McLouth and see how it starts. Ultimately, Braves project Jordan Schafer in that spot, but how far down the road is that? A few folks here have suggested Escobar. I don’t think that’s a ridiculous idea at all. Yes, he’s great with RISP. But he also gives pop at the top of the lineup and you have to make that call as to what’s more important: Leadoff or sixth (or wherever Escobar will bat). I’ve always been big on the leadoff guy.
Here’s a link to an Escobar/leadoff blog I wrote a few weeks back:
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/02/22/pick-the-braves-leadoff-hitter-and-why-not-escobar/
alan
March 19th, 2010
9:50 am
I’ll bet there are other fans out there who remember Josh Anderson in CF. I think wren made another of his mistakes trading him and keeping Jordan Schafer, who is a dud. McLouth is turning into another asterisk in Braves history. According to my brother who lives in NY, Melky is not the great hope of the Braves in CF either. Here goes another ho-hum season as the pitching can only do so much without runs or hits.
Tucker T
March 19th, 2010
10:05 am
Yes I am worried about Nate and no the Braves couldn’t have gotten Damon if they had been in on the bidding earlier. Boras was going to wait until late in the game regardless.
MLH
March 19th, 2010
10:11 am
Really Alan? Keep Josh Anderson? He is really tearing it up in Detroit isn’t he?
paranoiaagent0
March 19th, 2010
10:12 am
from baseball prospectus:
“[Wade] Boggs’ .415 career on-base percentage and nearly 600 doubles counted for far more than any bases he might have stolen because he was a great hitter first and a leadoff hitter second. This happy state of affairs exploited the true nature of the batting order, which is not to arrange the batters based on out-dated conventional wisdom — a speedy guy goes first, a good hit and run man bats second, your best all-around hitter goes third, your burliest power guy goes fourth, and so on. The real function of the batting order is to serve as a vehicle for distributing plate appearances. Over the course of the season, the leadoff spot will bat more often than the second spot, the second spot will bat more often than the third spot, and so on. Each spot comes to the plate roughly 20 more times than the one behind it.”
so you put prado or escobar or diaz first. it’s pretty simple. we have a number of options that would be successful if nate can’t produce.
and if glaus keeps hitting like he is, and chipper has one of his normal years, we have a good lineup. mccann is going to produce, escobar and prado will produce, heyward looks great…i don’t really see a whole lot of issues if we stay healthy.
Brian
March 19th, 2010
10:16 am
Josh Anderson??? He was one of the worst hitters in baseball last year! Worse than Schafer! And four years older.
Where do some of you people get your baseball information????
Mike S
March 19th, 2010
10:19 am
Let’s Put a little perspective on this:
Nate McClouth is playing with contacts for the first time in his career after noticing vision problems during the off-season
Last year brian McCann noticed vision problems during spring training and early april. He was fitted for glasses and eventually contacts.
Now, let’s compare McCann’s Stats as he adjusted to hitting with vision correction to McClouth’s as he adjusted:
BRian McCann April 10-30, 2009 — 2-26 .077 1K
Nate MCClouth Spring 2001 —- 1-31 .032 12K
Now the big difference, McCann only Ked once, so he was making better contact than McClouth, but the stats are strikingly similar otherwise.
But, Mcclouth also strikes out at a much higher rate than McCann and has had a lower BA than McCann, so it would be expected that his numbers would be Higher. Here is the stats to back that up
Brian McCann 2123 AB 301K .293 — 1 K every 7 AB
Nate McClouth 1812 AB 348 K .260 — 1 K every 5 AB
So, basically what it looks like is that McClouth is going through the same adjustment phase as McCann for the vision correction, but he is adjusting at a much slower rate.
If McClouth is still hittin .050 in 2 weeks, we worry, but right now, while concerned, I would not hit the hissy fit button yet.
But then, if Jeff didn’t have something to panic about and write negative columns about Georgia teams he wouldn’t have a blog would he.
coachx
March 19th, 2010
10:20 am
The Melky Cabrera trade is looking much better now.
Mike S
March 19th, 2010
10:21 am
As an aside, McCann eventually opted for Laser correction as he said he never did get comfortable with vision correction (glasses or contacts). I think McClouth seriously needs to consider the same surgery McCann had.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
March 19th, 2010
10:27 am
Move the ball over 4 feet? Thats asking a bit much!How about the 12k’s in 32 at-bats. Thats the troubling aspect, he needs to think in terms of table setting and show a little patience.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
10:31 am
McLouth is a career 260 hitter, where he was playing AAA ball in Pittsburgh – no pressure, no expectations. He sucks as a lead off man. If he hits 275, you’ll be lucky. I wish Nixon was still available.
N
March 19th, 2010
10:31 am
Josh Anderson. Where is he now? He started off good with Detroit but couldn’t even stay on the team the whole year. Geez, to say that was a bad deal Wren made.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
10:34 am
If Cox had any brains, either Prado or escobar, even Cabrera, is your leadoff guy. I guess you could let the guy we traded Frenchy for lead off – oh, wait, we released him. Bad leadership provides bad results. If the Braves don’t win 88 games witht the starting pitching we have, we need to can the moron Wren.
N
March 19th, 2010
10:35 am
Many great players have had bad spring trainings. I remember Ichiro as a rookie in Seattle started so bad, wasn’t pulling anything and Lou Piniella yelled at him to pull something so he did and went deep. A few teammates couldn’t believe it in the Majors that someone was just playing around in Spring Training as a rookie. Of course we found out that was his talent level as he went on to hit around .350 win rookie of the year and MVP in the same season.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
10:36 am
I did forget Diaz – he seems to be a bonafide 300 guy. But I have the impression he lumbers around the bases.
Jordan Schafer's Mama
March 19th, 2010
10:36 am
How about my boy in centerfield, hitting leadoff? He hit a healthy .204 in the regular season for Atlanta. McLouth is only hitting .032 in spring training !
N
March 19th, 2010
10:37 am
How is it bad leadership to release Church. Would you really take Church over one of the guys you have now. Come on, really??
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
10:39 am
Jeff – you have to know your sports section stinks and Dave (The Parrott) OBrien is a lobotomy with a dictionary. Why don’t you ever post league wide stats? My last sports page, no Braves spring training stats except a few ob stats from the Parrott At least you look at a story with wisdom and a point of view. Thanks for writing!
Lowcountry Bulldawg
March 19th, 2010
10:39 am
Please tell me you just didn’t reference Ichiro? Really, who knew what to expect from him? Stud numbers in the Japan League, had to make the transition to MLB Pitching. McClouth has been around the block several times. No way to make the comparison, Apples to Oranges.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
10:40 am
NO, dip wad – you traded Franceur for NOTHING – that is BAD leadership!
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
10:41 am
Your objective opinion is that Ichiro was a rookie?
MLH
March 19th, 2010
10:41 am
Like I said earlier the baseball IQ on this blog is comical
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
10:43 am
I really wish Ted Turner started to jones for baseball. He had a great business plan.
N
March 19th, 2010
10:43 am
Absolutely I referenced Ichiro because thats what happened, everyone thought he couldn’t hit, couldn’t pull the ball. I remember Al Martin saying how unbelievable that he was doing that and then just turned it on. I never compared him to Nate but said stars have bad springs sometimes. At the time no Japanese position player had played in the majors and it wasn’t a slam dunk that he would be great over here and his early spring had Lou Piniella and everyone worried.
ASHEVILLE DAWG
March 19th, 2010
10:44 am
Oy vey, we’re already in trouble, with two weeks to go before the season starts?
bill_in_atl
March 19th, 2010
10:44 am
Diaz should start in LF and bat leadoff against every left handed starter. His numbers against LH pitching is ridiculous. Last year in 152 PA vs LH he posted .412/.464/.640 for an OPS of 1.103.
He’ll be on base a TON and runs bases fairly well. I can’t see why anyone else would be considered for that role, when lefties are starting.
That still leaves 75% of the games to find a leadoff hitter against righties. If you look at McClouth you HAVE to assume he’ll get through this spring slump and revert to what he is. His track record is plenty long enough at this point. And he seems to be the best choice to leadoff against righties. His OBPs the past two years vs. RH pitching are .368 and.371 and we all know he’s our best base stealing threat. So assuming he eventually snaps out of this funk this is really an easy choice as well.
The only other possibility seems to be Yunel and it wouldn’t be terrible if he were given the role as his career OBP vs. RH is actually higher than McClouth’s. Plus he’s got some experience hitting 1st and fared well doing it.
Melky is decent against LH and RH but doesn’t excel vs either so while I think he’ll contribute a lot I don’t see him as a good fit for the leadoff role.
In summary I suggest batting Diaz leadoff vs. LF and McClouth vs. RH. If it’s Escobar, that’s ok too.
MLH
March 19th, 2010
10:44 am
Actually trading Franceur was addition by subtraction, and it opened up a spot for Heyward. Getting anything above a bag of balls for Franceur last year had to be considered an achievement.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
March 19th, 2010
10:49 am
Ok, whatever makes sense to you and the Francouer move will be one that bites this franchise in the rear. The staff grew frustrated and gave up on him. Also the move didnt open up a spot in RF. Last I checked LF by no means has been solidified. Still a platoon, so you could have have the corner spots manned down by two local products had the Braves been patient enough.
Jesse Stone
March 19th, 2010
10:50 am
N- Look up career numbers. Church is slightly better than Melky.
N
March 19th, 2010
10:53 am
Church?? He is injury proned though and Melky is a young guy at 25.
Patient enough?? How long did you want to wait and give up on the season with Frenchy.
Left field seems solid to me, I love what Melky and Diaz bring to the table. This team looks so much better then the last few.
Jesse Stone
March 19th, 2010
10:56 am
Yeah, Melky is 25 but his numbers haven’t been improving. He’s an overrated former Yankee whose name got a lot of play in the national media.
Brian from SC
March 19th, 2010
11:01 am
Hey Jeff, how does this fact fly with your “it all starts with leadoff” thing?
The team in the NL with the lowest OBP out of the leadoff spot last year (Phillies) scored the most runs in the league.
The team with the highest OBP out of the leadoff spot (Pirates) scored the fewest runs in the league.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
11:04 am
MLH you just proved you baseball IQ is comical.
Bill
March 19th, 2010
11:04 am
It is spring and time to get ready. If Nate was batting .800 now would you expect him to bat .800 during the season? Lets see how it works out. There are options, but please don’t write him off yet – just as you wouldn’t offer him $10 M a year for 12 years if he was hitting .800 right now.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
11:05 am
Pro players from Japan are not rookies. You must be a corporate flunky.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
11:09 am
McLouth is a #7 hitter with speed. If he is OK, why was Frenchy not? Yea, he had a bad year and a half – but I blame that on Pendleton being inept – just ask Andrew Jones.
the crime dawg
March 19th, 2010
11:09 am
ACTUALLY if he doesnt do the job then move Prado to the one hole Jeffy, you obviously never played baseball so stick to writing. Are you even an Atlanta fan? Boo to you Jeffy.
Jeff Schultz
March 19th, 2010
11:10 am
Brian from SC — The Phillies’ lineup isn’t a fair measuring stick, and I think you know that. With what they’ve got 2-8, you could hit leadoff.
the crime dawg
March 19th, 2010
11:11 am
KUDOS TO BRIAN FROM SC, read his comment from 3/19 @ 11:01. Great article Jeffy, go write about traffic jams, your DRAMA could be used for that topic, GO BRAVES, and McClouth will be just fine. DRAMA QUEEN JEFFY!
Jeff Schultz
March 19th, 2010
11:12 am
For what it’s worth, when I put up a poll asking readers to vote on leadoff hitter before the start of spring training, these were the results: McLouth 49 percent, Prado 21, Diaz 17, Escobar 13. The poll (and blog) is still open if you want to weigh in.
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/02/22/pick-the-braves-leadoff-hitter-and-why-not-escobar/
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
11:14 am
Also, if you look at players with long (12 year) careers, they will have 2 to 4 that are just bad. You have to live with it. If you are hasty (bad leadership; IE bad/fuzzy decision making), you give up on a guy too soon. If a player is older than 35, he may be starting a long decline, but can still be productive late in a career (Ted Williams). If the team had unconditionally supported Frenchy, and any Braves fan living in Atlanta should have given him their full support, he would have come around. Now, he gets to visit Atlanta 9 times a year and beat the crap out of you. Another BAD decision – he should have been traded out west or to the American league. From where I stand, Wren is novice pretender way over his head – like Drew Blickensderfer.
Paddy O
March 19th, 2010
11:15 am
crime dawg is a typical moron redneck.
MLH
March 19th, 2010
11:18 am
How is RF still a platoon if Heyward makes the team? LF would be the platoon. And they didn’t give up on Franceur, they gave him ample time to turn things around. Even sent him to the minors which he complained about
Joshua
March 19th, 2010
11:23 am
I am so tired of the irresponsible fear-mongering perpetrated by the so called journalists at AJC. I am also tired of the way the people on this board just bite into it. I would clear things up but honestly most of you are too stupid and biased to care about logic. Suffice it to say that the Braves are going to be highly competitive this year, and McClouth should not be batting lead off anyway. But you all continue to disregard the fact that even after a horrid first two months last season, the Braves still finished fifth in the league in runs scored and had one of the best run differentials in the majors. That fact right there illustrates my point that you are all oblivious to reason. So if you don’t like where we are, why don’t you just stop watching baseball, and stop posting your inane and laughable opinions on this board where you continue to perpetuate the stereo-type that southerners are in fact stupid.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
March 19th, 2010
11:26 am
What makes the move with Frenchie worse is how his production jumped w/ the Mets. If he can excel for a half season with the New York media then what was wrong in Atlanta?
Nothing can be done know but a corner OF with Heyward and Frenchie would have been nice for a decade or so.
Smuglas
March 19th, 2010
11:28 am
Reminder that Willie Mays started his career 0-24. The Giants should have released him at that point. Good thing they didn’t have blogs back then!
Joshua
March 19th, 2010
11:30 am
“From where I stand, Wren is novice pretender way over his head – like Drew Blickensderfer.”
From where I stand, Wren’s knowledge of how to run a baseball organization is exponentially greater than your own. I guess that sort of explains why he’s being paid to do so and you are not.
1. We should have a substantially better line-up this year than last (with the potential of really being scary if Heyward continues to hit the way he has been in ST), in which 7 guys have the ability to take a bad pitch to the house at any time. We have really improved our speed with the additions of Melky and McClouth and while its still not a strength imo, it also shouldn’t be a weakness for us either.
2. Our pitching is rock solid from top to bottom and front to back. Virtually no holes in the pitching staff.
3. Our defense will be above average.
4. We have plenty of money and trade-bat to make a major mid-season acquisition, *after* we have had time to see what injuries are going to do to our line-up and to determine where we need help the most, which really is far better than making the acquisition now that could end up being redundant anyway (i.e. signing a power bat like Jason Bay only to have Heyward come out of the gates like a bat out of hell.
5. We have great depth.
6. And your opinion is both irresponsible and irrelevant to reality.
jeff blauser
March 19th, 2010
11:44 am
schultz, you don’t know what you’re talking about. The only useful quote in this post is as follows: “It doesn’t make sense to panic only 31 at-bats into a regular season. So I suppose it doesn’t make sense to panic 31 at-bats into spring training”
Yes, he’s struggling, but yes its only 31 at-bats into the spring…he’ll get if figured out, that’s the whole purpose of spring TRAINING…sometimes i think we’d all be better off without any media coverage during ST, because we end up with useless articles like this.
I vowed a while back not to read posts from schultz or bradley anymore, but I endulged in this one anyway, and now here i am wasting time typing about why i think it was and is a useless article.
One more thing- you say that its clear mclouth is “trying to hit” not just “working out the kinks”…wow. profound. of course he’s trying to hit, that’s how you work out the kinks…again, its spring training.
jeff blauser
March 19th, 2010
11:47 am
after reading some of the above comments, i’m very pleased to see that a few of you actually recognize that schultz has no idea what he’s talking about…great guy i’m sure, writes well, intelligent no doubt..but why the heck is he giving his assessment of a guy’s ability to hit based on 31 ST at-bats?
Joshua
March 19th, 2010
11:48 am
In five major league season, one time has McLouth batted for a .260 or better average. So why would we have him leading off anyway? Put him in the 7 or 8 hole and let him try to smack in runs.