Pick the Braves’ leadoff hitter (and why not Escobar?)
Nate McLouth: The likely pick.
Yunel Escobar: The intriguing option.
Johnny Damon is a Detroit Tiger, which means his wife Michelle will have to settle for tanning on the banks of Lake Michigan and the Braves don’t have a lot of great options for a leadoff hitter.
Now, we all know how this probably will go. Nate McLouth, who was acquired last season from Pittsburgh and proceeded to have one of the worst seasons of his career, almost certainly will be handed the job. Platoon outfielder Matt Diaz probably also will take a turn there. And who knows: If and when Jordan Schafer is ready to play every day in the majors, he could be the leadoff hitter the Braves haven’t had since Rafael Furcal left (and then didn’t come back).
Loading ...But until that happens, the Braves need to generate some offense, some excitement and have some sense of a threat at the top of the lineup. If you’ll permit me to think outside the box here for a moment, here’s an idea: Why not Yunel Escobar?
I know the biggest argument against it. Escobar has power and he can drive in runs so you want him in the middle of the lineup. But to me, that argument minimizes the importance of his ability to get on base, and also how important the leadoff position is. You may recall Escobar hit at the top of the order frequently in 2007 and 2008. His numbers were impressive.
Below, I’ve listed some statistics for four Braves — Diaz, Escobar, McLouth and Martin Prado — and how they fared as leadoff hitters in 2007, 2008 and 2009. I figure those are the four best options for the job this year. If you were to rank those four by on-base percentage from last season, it would go: Diaz (.390), Escobar (.377), Prado (.358) and McLouth (.354). If you were to rank them by batting average, it would be Diaz (.313), Prado (.307), Escobar (.299) and McLouth (.257).
What are you thoughts on this subject? Who should hit leadoff for the Braves?
Meanwhile, here are statistics for Diaz, Escobar, McLouth and Prado in the last three seasons when they hit at the top of the Braves’ order.
♦
2007 Avg AB R H HR RBI SB BB SO OBP SLG
Escobar .351 151 30 53 2 16 3 10 22 .400 .490
Diaz .250 12 0 3 0 3 0 0 2 .214 .333
Prado .083 12 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 .154 .083
♦
2008 Avg AB R H HR RBI SB BB SO OBP SLG
Escobar .285 158 21 45 4 18 0 18 21 .358 .392
Prado .267 30 5 8 0 3 0 3 4 .333 .433
♦
2009 Avg AB R H HR RBI SB BB SO OBP SLG
Diaz .439 41 7 18 1 5 1 5 11 .531 .585
McLouth .257 331 58 85 10 35 11 44 70 .351 .414
Escobar .091 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .167 .091
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179 comments Add your comment
Mickey Mouse
February 22nd, 2010
9:53 am
I choose Goofy to lead off…..Oh that’s right..he is the Manager..!!!!
.
February 22nd, 2010
9:55 am
Schafer has played 3 months out of last 2 years. He needs to be in AAA not the bigs, he got a free ticket last year for 7 weeks of ST but it didn’t work. Don’t screw it up again. (I know all about the injury & drugs )
Give Prado the lead off role and see what happens.
UglyOldDog
February 22nd, 2010
9:57 am
None of the above…..lead off needs to be someone who can pound the ball into the dirt and steal a base and force the defense to be antsy when on base…none of the these will strike fear into a major league infield and pitcher
Pablo Escobar
February 22nd, 2010
9:57 am
Choose my son Yunel…..He will snow-job the clubhouse and everyone will get off to a fast start
tomahawkin down 75
February 22nd, 2010
9:59 am
Note on McClouth and his SBs, to clear it up:
2009 – 19SB, 6CS
2008 – 23SB, 3CS
2007- 22SB, 1CS
So the guy had a down year last year compared to his previous numbers, but as you can see in regards to stealing bases, the guy can get it done with some obvious success.
I’m all for McClouth leading off, but he’s gotta improve that average if he’s gonna make a difference there. I do think though that you can be successful w/ a leadoff hitter who’s not prototypical, and I think Prado could fit that bill. He’s not particularly fast, but he’s a great contact hitter and the guy hits a lot of doubles (38 last year in only 450 ABs; Nate his 27 in almost 600 AB’s total last year, and that’s with that undeniable speed he brings) and projects to hit above the .300 mark. You get a guy standing on second with Escobar, Chipper and B-Mac following up, and you got a good chance to score. Prado, in my mind, should be considered as a second option if McClouth is having problems with average and OB% in general.
Sonny Clusters
February 22nd, 2010
10:00 am
Clusters could bat leadoff.
tomahawkin down 75
February 22nd, 2010
10:01 am
Yikes – apologize for the McLouth misspellings also. Seeing as i typed it about 500 times that pretty horrendous.
tomahawkin down 75
February 22nd, 2010
10:03 am
Clusters gotta hits cleanup. He can knock em into the Dairy Queen parking lot from here.
.
February 22nd, 2010
10:04 am
Can’t sign any one we don’t have any money? Can’t trade any one because we can’t afford their salary? What the He!! we gone do……..same as always…… nothing!
Herschel Talker
February 22nd, 2010
10:04 am
Bring back Otis Nixon.
Schultzie – you the man! Mazel tov!
If I could sing like Paul McCartney and get funky like Etta James
February 22nd, 2010
10:10 am
I would put Melky and Diaz leading off and platooning in right. Both have done well in that part of the order. The teams run production improved when Prodo batted second. Leave him there. Bat Escobar and McCann in the fifth spot alternating righty lefty. Both have proven they can knock in runs. If Chipper, Glaus and McLouth all return to average the offence will be OK.
PMC
February 22nd, 2010
10:15 am
you should show the extra base hits numbers in addition to just hits and Home Runs Jeff.
JeanE
February 22nd, 2010
10:16 am
Matty D. was awesome hitting leadoff last year, why not give him a shot at it to start the year? He’s aggressive and will steal bases, hardnosed, just what’s needed at leadoff. And I’m so sick of people saying he can’t hit righties, that’s bunk. Yes, he’s much better against the lefties but he was very respectable the other way and will play all out the entire game.
GoodTraction
February 22nd, 2010
10:16 am
Sonny – Where in the Sam Hill have you been? We miss you, now . . .
Jason
February 22nd, 2010
10:18 am
escobar drives in too many runs. when he was put lower in the order last year the offense was way more productive…
cattle dawg
February 22nd, 2010
10:19 am
Why in hades would Bobby platoon Diaz?
BigTimeTECHFan
February 22nd, 2010
10:20 am
1. Schafer CF
2. Prado 2B
3. Escobar SS
4. Jones 3B
5. Heyward RF
6. McCann C
7. Glaus 1B
8. McLouth/Caberra LF
Ross
February 22nd, 2010
10:23 am
Prado, Escobar, Diaz, Jones, McCann, Glaus, Cabrera, McClouth, pitcher.
I like the sound of that.
Greg
February 22nd, 2010
10:34 am
I say to Dr. Phil…you’re right about Esco’s head (OTOH, he IS getting older!). Let’s give him the responsibility and see what happens. He’s got the best combination of on-base % and speed. So you have to try him.
Sonny Clusters
February 22nd, 2010
10:35 am
We was thinking the leadoff batter should have some speed. The second batter should be able (and willing) to hit behind a runner. Next, somebody that can hit a fly ball would be good. Of course, that would be National League baseball and the Braves prefer to play 3-run homerun baseball without the 3-run homerun hitter. We was thinking about how somebody gets in the order at a certain slot and stays there forever no matter whether they match up there or not. Being hot doesn’t mean you will move up in the order. Being totally undisciplined and an automatic out does not mean you will move down or to the bench. Bobby Ball willl be with us another season. Speed means nothing if they aren’t allowed to run. When we was playing ball we had a really fast guy on the team named LaTroy Washington and he was the fastest runner we have ever seen. Coach told LaTroy, “son, if you have a chance to run by all means do so.” That was the last time we saw LaTroy.
Bill M.
February 22nd, 2010
10:37 am
Dr. Phil—- you are looking at a different Escobar than I am. He has no speed at all. He need’s to hit 5th or 6th. Escobar is older than he is telling. He’s not in the game alot of times. I don’t know where his mind is. He’s more of a run producer than leadoff type.
John Smoltz's Missing Hair
February 22nd, 2010
10:40 am
Bobby Cox can run faster than Brian McCann.
John
February 22nd, 2010
10:46 am
1. McLouth
2. Prado
3. Chipper
4. Escobar
5. McCann
6. Diaz
7. Heyward/Cabrera
8. Glaus (I still can’t believe we are relying on him)
Elon Brave
February 22nd, 2010
10:49 am
I just don’t know if Matty D’s splits are favorable enough for him to be there every day.
stupup74
February 22nd, 2010
10:58 am
1.McLouth 2. Prado. 3. Escobar 4. Jones 5. Glaus 6. McCann (flip depending on RH or LH SP) 7. Diaz 8. Cabrera (Heyward at Gwinnett until June 1. )
Power Hitting Deprived
February 22nd, 2010
11:02 am
Where’s the love for Prado. He hit .307 last year while battling through injuries. I would like to see either Prado or Escobar, although I’m sure we’ll spend a month or two watching Nate Mclouth struggle. Keep keeping it real Mr. Schultz
t willie
February 22nd, 2010
11:10 am
most top of line lead off hitters are contact and or punch hitters. nate and yunel are better suited for power. in time martin would propably develop into a pretty good get on base man.
Alaska Braves Fan
February 22nd, 2010
11:14 am
Likely lineup with career averages. Averages for HR and RBI are simply career number of each divided by number of years played. That may not be a good measure, but it’s easy to do.
BA HR RBI OBP OPS
1 CF Nate McLouth .260 14 46 .342 .796
2 2B Martin Prado .307 4 23 .360 .810
3 3B Chipper Jones .307 27 90 .406 .947
4 1B Troy Glaus .255 25 73 .359 .856
5 C Brian McCann .293 18 78 .356 .853
6 SS Yunel Escobar .301 10 55 .375 .801
7 RF Jason Heyward N/A
8 LF Matt Diaz .310 5 23 .358 .817
Melky Cabrero .269 7 46 .331 .716
ABF
rico43
February 22nd, 2010
11:19 am
Would someone at the AJC give Sonny C. a blog of his own already? The man has a gift no AJC writer has had since LG — making a reader laugh out loud!
Jeff Schultz
February 22nd, 2010
11:20 am
Herschel — Thanks. And Otis Nixon is STILL available. So is Pasqual Perez.
Jeff Schultz
February 22nd, 2010
11:21 am
Space Monkey — The worst leadoff hitter you’ve ever seen? Did you ever see him because the stats were pretty good when he did it.
Jeff Schultz
February 22nd, 2010
11:21 am
Space Monkey — The worst leadoff hitter you’ve ever seen? Did you ever see him because the stats were pretty good when he did it.
Delbert D.
February 22nd, 2010
11:22 am
Should keep Glaus at 3rd. Should trade Jones to the DH league. Should trade Schafer before his value goes to zero.
Jeff Schultz
February 22nd, 2010
11:22 am
Stew — Schafer could be the man but I sense he’s not making the team out of spring.
Jeff Schultz
February 22nd, 2010
11:23 am
ChippersLoveChild — USA! USA! USA! (How’s that?)
DirtyDawg
February 22nd, 2010
11:23 am
Hey guys, stop skinnin’ your ignorance by pushing Glaus down to seventh or lower in the line-up. We got him to slot between Jones and McCann and to knock runs in…so basically, he’s the clean-up hitter until he shows he’s incapable of getting the job done. As for lead-off, you gotta figure Schafer (ever how many ‘effs’ are in there) would be the best choice if he’s healthy and back to performing like they thought he would. Otherwise, it’s gotta be McClouth…and for the one that said Escobar is the faster of the group, don’t know what sport you watched last season, but I’m afraid that’s just not so. McClouth needs to change his approach at the plate – too big a hole in his swing…in other words too many strike-outs for leadoff…same with Diaz. Take more pitches…drag bunt more – at least once a game…spray the ball around. Maybe, at this stage in his development, it’s too late for him to change, and if he hasn’t been working on it in the off-season, then a few weeks in Spring Training is going to do the trick. But it’s him or Schafer. Diaz and Escobar are too valuable elsewhere.
bravofan
February 22nd, 2010
11:23 am
Is this a joke without a doubt its Yunel
chemdawg
February 22nd, 2010
11:29 am
There’s so much dogma associated with baseball. Stolen bases are way overrated. They rarely have a significant impact on the game because the risk vs. reward isn’t that significant. The single most important factor for any leadoff hitter is getting on base. There’s a much stronger correlation between runs scored and OBP than runs scored and stolen bases. It’s that simple: Diaz is the only logical choice.
rico43
February 22nd, 2010
11:32 am
My novel solution is have someone earn the job. Try McLouth at the start of camp; if he can’t get on base enough, look to Yunel, or Melky, or Schafer, or Diaz. This is what spring games are for. No one player on this roster fits the role all that well. He who can adapt, wins.
Skeezix
February 22nd, 2010
11:32 am
Anybody’s grandmother can run faster than McCann. ATL doesn’t really have a true leadoff hitter, but I like Prado or McLouth leading off. Prado cause he can be pesky and make the pitcher throw a bunch and McLouth cause he’s a lefty and has good speed.
Mitun
February 22nd, 2010
11:37 am
I say Prado
Ozzie
February 22nd, 2010
11:40 am
No matter who leads off if Bobby sticks with a stinker too long (which he is prone to do) it won’t matter.
Bobby has a habit of being too patient and having say McClouth repeat his 09 performance well into early June or late May would be tough on this team.
2010 needs to be the year Bobby gets the hook out early for all players. This move in and of itself would result in more wins for the club.
The dark horse would be Melky assuming he gets regular playing time. ST will decide that one way or another.
Vince
February 22nd, 2010
11:40 am
Against Lefties
Diaz-RF
Prado-2B
C. Jones-3B
Glaus-1B
Escobar-SS
McCann-C
McClouth-CF
Infante/Cabrera-LF
Look at splits involving OPS and OBP and that is your mathematically ideal lineup.
Larry
February 22nd, 2010
11:43 am
In a lineup thats going to be hurting for power, we cant afford to put Escobar in the leadoff spot. We need him hitting 3 or 4. I like Prado batting leadoff. He’s a tough out with speed and great power to the gaps.
Jim
February 22nd, 2010
11:50 am
The Braves have one of the weakest all around outfields in MLB. First, totally lacking in home-run power, very limited in stolen bases, average hitting (only one player that has hit .300 and time will tell if he will do it over complete season) and other than one exceptional throwing arm average or blow defensively. Most team have major offensive productions from their outfields. The only thing that can be said about the Braves outfield is that they are one of the lowest paid in MLB.
Jack
February 22nd, 2010
11:55 am
you lead off once a game – most overrated idea in baseball
DirtyDawg
February 22nd, 2010
11:55 am
Schultz…whatayamean you ’sense’ Schafer’s not gonna make the team coming out of ST? What are the Braves too gun-shy about falling for performance in Spring Training as an indicator for how somebody is going to do? Are they planning on punishing him for something else? If you’re saying that they’ve already made their minds up, then I say why bother with the Grapefruit League at all? Just have everybody show up the week before opening day, throw the ball around, take a little BP and ‘get ‘er on’! I mean, other than pitchers, who actually has to ‘get in shape’ in baseball anyway?
Big Earl
February 22nd, 2010
11:58 am
With the Braves last year, McLouth had a .285 AVG and .385 OBP against righties and Diaz had a .412 AVG and .465 OBP against lefties. YOU WANT YOUR LEADOFF GUY TO GET ON, PERIOD! You want your 2 hole guy to be able to handle a bat and there’s noone on the team better than Prado. Yunel has some much needed pop, so he needs to be in a position to use it. Based on this, here are the line-ups:
Vs Lefties:
Diaz (RF) .412 AVG vs. Lefties
Prado (2B) .301 AVG vs. Lefties
Chipper (3B) .289 AVG vs. Lefties
McCann (C) .225 AVG vs. Lefties
Escobar (SS) .232 AVG vs. Lefties
Glaus (1B) Can’t find splits but bats RH so should be better vs LH
Cabrera (LF) .268 AVG vs. Lefties
McLouth (CF) .192 AVG vs. Lefties
Vs Righties:
McLouth (CF) .285 vs. Righties
Prado (2B) .309 vs. Righties
Chipper (3B) .252 vs. Righties
Escobar (SS) .327 vs. Righties
McCann (C) .308 vs. Righties
Cabrera (LF) .277 vs. Righties
Diaz (RF) .255 vs. Righties
Glaus (1B)
NOTES:
1) I wish we had another option in CF against LH pitching, but we don’t.
2) I hope Cabrera is replaced by Heyward…this could change EVERYTHING!
3) Not sure if Diaz would be better in LF and Cabrera in RF, but this
wouldn’t affect the batting order above.
4) McCann and Yunel really need to pick it up against Lefties this year.
Steve D
February 22nd, 2010
11:59 am
Too early to decide. Leadoff hitter needs to 1) get on base alot. 2) get to 2nd base 3)make the pitcher use lots of pitches, and 4) distract pitchers with chaos when on base without getting picked. This would NOT be Escobar. Best prospective skills for leadoff are McLouth, Infante and Schafer but McLouth and Schafer sucked in leadoff spot last year and Cox wont keep Prado out of lineup at 2nd base unless he has big drop off his year. He also won’t effectively use the speed game even if a leadoff hitter shines, because he likes to play the “get on base and knock homeruns” game, which won’t work for this team. Unless an unproven leadoff hitter, a past-his-prime 3rd baseman, a 20 yr old rookie outfielder, an over-the-hill closer, a new 1st baseman in an aging body coming off major injury, all have superior years, bating with power and pitching well into September, and Escobar, Prado, and Diaz have little or no drop off, it is unlikely the Braves, even with starting pitching close to last years, will be very average in 2010. This is a team positioning for 2011 and beyond. Even the trades for pitching show this. Read Don Sutton’s comments (”The man can talk”)…….and read between the lines.
Dennis
February 22nd, 2010
12:02 pm
Regarding a lead off hitter, the question should be “Who best is able to turn a walk or single into a double, using his speed?” The answer is fairly clear that McClouth best provides that. The #2 hitter is often counted on to move the leadoff man over by way of sacrifice or hit and run, and this should not be an Escobar caliber player as you want his AB to be used to drive in runs not simply move them over. I believe Prado is the right one for the #2 spot.