Forget the ‘expert’ rankings, Georgia Tech will be fine
Paul Johnson led someone else's recruits to the ACC title. It bodes well for what he does with his own recruits. (Johnny Crawford/AJC)
The NFL, generally recognized as the most successful sports league in the world, employs hundreds of scouts, spends millions of dollars, crosses the country several times over, breaks down every conceivable potential pro player from Big Campus U to Couldn’t Find Us Without GPS A&M and feeds it all into computers that spit out professional looking, color-coded spreadsheets, suitable for framing.
Know what? They still get it wrong more than half the time.
So what are we to think about national letter of intent day? College scouting is even less sophisticated than pro scouting. They’re dealing with athletes four years younger. Teenagers. More variables means more guessing, which means more darts are likely to hit the wall, three feet from the target.
I know. You don’t want to hear that today, right? As a Georgia Tech fan, you want to know that what Paul Johnson did Wednesday was ensure ACC championships and BCS bowls for years to come.
If you go strictly by “rankings” and number of “stars” by “experts” who know even less about analyzing players than real coaches – who still guess wrong – Tech won’t blow anybody away today. One national recruiting service lists the Jackets’ highest likely signee as No. 214 in the country – defensive end Anthony Williams of Union Grove. Another has the Jackets’ anticipated signing class ranked as sixth best in the ACC and 37th in the nation.
Let me take this opportunity to give a value to these rankings on my own personal scale: one raspberry.
“The No. 64 guard in the country, you can’t tell me who that is,” Johnson cracked Wednesday. “I don’t even know who the No. 2 guard in the state is.”
The old expression of a team “looking good getting off the bus” applies here. They are recruits, nothing more, nothing less. Georgia Tech will be fine because the success of a football program is defined by coaching and direction, not by which recruits emerged from those inane hat-switching acts at press conferences.
As Johnson said, “As usual, they all come highly recommended.”
Johnson has coached two seasons with somebody else’s players, who were recruited for somebody else’s offense. I seem to recall his arrival actually chasing a few recruits away, partly out of concern for what his option offense would do to their statistics.
Tech survived. Johnson has the best start of any coach in school history, going 20-7 overall and 12-4 in the ACC. The nature of the offense means top high school quarterbacks and receivers generally will not look at The Flats as an option. That cuts into overall recruiting “rankings.” But if rankings ultimately defined success, Johnson wouldn’t be running his offense to begin with.
This is no slam on Chan Gailey. The man is a solid football coach, and this year’s team included four of his top recruits who will be on Sundays next season: Derrick Morgan, Demaryius Thomas, Jonathan Dwyer and Morgan Burnett. But how many times did Gailey go 7-5 with his players?
This is not to diminish the need for great athletes. But a college program makes the players, not the other way around.
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251 comments Add your comment
just wait
February 3rd, 2010
10:32 am
firsr
GTfan
February 3rd, 2010
10:32 am
first
Scrap
February 3rd, 2010
10:36 am
Very well said Jeff….Based on what I’ve seen, CPJ is doing everything necessary to shore up the defense, which as far as I can tell was the only weak link in his arsenal…..I look for improvement on that side of the ball next season, and continued improvement overall for some time to come…..2009 will be difficult to duplicate next year, but don’t count the Jackets out of the ACC championship just yet.
Asheville Dawg
February 3rd, 2010
10:37 am
3rd
wesleywhatwhat
February 3rd, 2010
10:37 am
yessir.
GT JJ
February 3rd, 2010
10:38 am
Couldn’t agree more. We’ll be fine with whomever Johnson deems worthy to play for the Jackets.
Clay
February 3rd, 2010
10:42 am
Look at Bradley’s and Schultz’s column headings. One belittles UGA for not being in the top ten in recruiting rankings, and the other praises GT for not being in the top 40!! Very objective guys. That’s why the AJC is a sinking ship ….
TechfaninVR
February 3rd, 2010
10:43 am
The only reason we are rated lower is the number of signees is relativly low. The avg rating of the players is pretty good, but most of the highly rated teams have signed 25 plus recruits
the real Old Gold
February 3rd, 2010
10:44 am
Well said.
ABitOffsides
February 3rd, 2010
10:45 am
Amen, Jeff. Thank you. I would be interested to see some stats on how many “five star” recruits vs. “three star” or even “two star” (is there even such a thing?) end up making major contributions to their college teams…much less go pro.
I think the other thing to recognize is that CPJ and his staff are recruiting a very specific type of player on the offensive side of the ball. They want: a) somebody who fits into the system (obviously); and b) quality individuals who bring the intangibles (the inverse of exhibit A: Da’Rick Rogers). CPJ pulling scholarships last year for kids (or the kid) who committed to Tech and then made visits to other schools shows that he want character as much as ability.
So, where Tech (or FSU or Clemson or whomever) ranks in recruiting nationally and within the ACC is, in my opinion, great water cooler banter and gives people something to talk about until Spring ‘ball, but that’s about it.
Go Jackets!
Dawgs73
February 3rd, 2010
10:47 am
I’m am obviously a UGA fan, but I couldn’t agree with this article more. It’s about the coach and the system in place to make the players better. Paul Johnson is clearly a man who could give a cra!!! about recruit rankings and is more focused on finding the “right player” and coaching him up….wish UGA had a coach like this.
Joe
February 3rd, 2010
10:47 am
I haven’t updated this with last year’s final poll results, but here’s a weighted average and then ranking of every D-IA school’s last 5 recruiting classes. Basically, the if team X’s weighted average ranking is 12 and they finished ranked #25, they underachieved. On the other had, if a team’s recruiting average ranking was 40 (like GT’s) and they finished #12, then the coaches probably did a better job than others of identifying talent, coaching players up, although there are other explanations.
Link: http://www.inkwellideas.com/college-football-recruiting-vs-ranking/acc.shtml
GT ArmChair QB
February 3rd, 2010
10:49 am
Only partially true.
It’s crystal clear and painfully obvious from the bowl games against LSU and Iowa, and this year’s game against UGA that Georgia Tech has to sign better athletes along the lines of scrimmage.
See Mark Bradley’s article. Don’t you read the AJC Jeff?
Not to be a negatron, but Paul Johnson didn’t do that this year or last.
Asheville Dawg
February 3rd, 2010
10:50 am
Those rating service things are just something invented to give the masses something to drool over. Some alleged five star recruits actually live up to the hype, and others do a face plant. It takes two or three years to actually find out if the questionable “star” system works. If these “experts” were always right Pierre Garcon of the Colts would not have come from Mount Union College.
I wonder where the five stars of five years ago are today?
leroy
February 3rd, 2010
10:50 am
Don’t get caught up in “stars” when evaluating Paul Johnson. His system is so unique that recruiting is based on need and certain players are perfect fits for his system where others are not who may be higher rated- especially at the QB position. He’ll be fine…
GT45
February 3rd, 2010
10:52 am
In CPJ we trust-and Groh!
Jaded Jacket
February 3rd, 2010
10:54 am
If Tech had eight more scholarships available and signed eight three-star recruits their ranking would be higher.
MR
February 3rd, 2010
10:54 am
Clay
Poor pitiful UGA. Nobody give them love. Nothing but a bunch of whiners.
GT ArmChair QB,
Not only are the signing better athletes a change in the system plays more to what Tech is able to sign. Paul Johnson has addressed the defense last years recruits, look at the redshirts, and hiring a new DC.
Don’t act like a UGA fan.
NoWay!
February 3rd, 2010
10:58 am
You also might want to add that sheer numbers (some schools seem to always have 25+ slots open for recruitment because of drop-outs, jail sentences, etc.) while GT always seems to be right around 20 or even less. This year GT expects to sign 17 to 18 but remember four of these slots only opened up after the 4 juniors declared for the NFL draft otherwise we’d have only 13 openings.
Also, we signed a kicker! His signing was followed by us dropping 7 spots in the rankings by Scout and Rivals because he was a 2 star! So a kicker plummets the ranking….just shows how arbitrary the system is. If yearly rankings were important – UGA would win a National title every 4 to 5 years since that is about where they average. Instead they have only one title in over 100 years of football while we have four times as many national titles!!!
CB Louis Young puts exclamation point on Tech’s class | AJC College Sports Recruiting
February 3rd, 2010
10:59 am
[...] Columnist Jeff Schultz is over at Tech today. Here are his first impressions. [...]
GT45
February 3rd, 2010
10:59 am
We just signed everyone, unless we get a surprise. This is a good looking defensive class, with some O prospects that will fit right in. Good luck, guys!
GPB
February 3rd, 2010
11:03 am
Eh. Given the track record of most scouts, you’ll see huge busts and surprising diamonds in the rough. IT ALWAYS HAPPENS.
PJ Daniels was a walkon at Tech and enjoyed collegiate success while Reggie Ball showed much promise and ended up a bust. Coaching matters but so does player motivation. Take Mario West for example.
This is true for all programs.
juvenal
February 3rd, 2010
11:04 am
what hurt in the bowls was not having a true option qb when the D stacks the line(like the USNA kid from Buford)-the 2007 class was rated higher, did not do too bad, & 2 of those did not even go to GT..
judd
February 3rd, 2010
11:05 am
the best “letter of intent” we got was from al groh. i think he is going to be able to, not only get very good defensive players to come to tech, but also make the current ones a lot better.
this team might not have the players the 2009 team had, but i think it’s going to be just fine.
Nick P.
February 3rd, 2010
11:07 am
Look, UGA has been in the top 10 recruitting classes, and many times even in the top recruiting class and we all have seen what that really means, especially of late, a mediocre, or middle of the pack even in their own division let alone in the top 25 AP polls. On paper, UGA was supposed to be in the BCS every year except for this year, and in reality we were far from it. Tech is doing fine and like many of you have pointed out his needs are different than the average team due to uniquness of the system he runs. I dont think anyone could come up with a ranking or evealuation system for Coach Johnson based on his Football philosophy, but we all know he has had great success on all levels he has coached using the same system. So, I will give him the benefit of the doubt, and believe him and his recruitting more than any outside system evaluating and ranking him.
TML
February 3rd, 2010
11:07 am
Well said, Jeff. Goferit can now start getting his kind of players to fit his system. I’m pleased to hear of our signings in the secondary but I haven’t heard much about any defensive linemen…any word, anyone? At any rate, it will be interesting to watch CPJ develop his kind of recruits at a major college program now.
“Toe Meets Leather” is available at http://www.stinGTees.com.
juvenal
February 3rd, 2010
11:08 am
2 0f the 4stars, that is..
CF Smith
February 3rd, 2010
11:09 am
jeff schultz,
perhaps the best article on this subject that i have ever read.
well done.
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:16 am
Clay — I didn’t praise Tech for not being in the top 40. I wrote that it doesn’t matter if they’re in the top 40 or not. If you’re going to criticize, at least be accurate — unless that doesn’t fit your agenda.
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:17 am
Scrap — Thanks. The ACC’s going to be pretty competitive next season.
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:18 am
FOLKS–Just as an FYI, I updated the column with a couple of Paul Johnson quotes, who pretty much echoed what I had written. (That made the comments easy to fit.
Now I’ll get to some of your comments. .. Then I’ll be at Tech’s signing soiree tonight at the Georgian Terrace.)
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:20 am
Judd — Good point on Groh. Don’t know if he can have the dramatic and immediate impact on the defense that Johnson did with the offense, but I’m sure he’ll coach them up more than his predecessor.
Not Disappointed!
February 3rd, 2010
11:20 am
Preach on Brother Schultz. I didn’t know you had a little Penecostal Ministry in your repitwa! I like this article. Ramblin Wreck!
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:20 am
ABitOffsides — A lot of 5-star guys turn out to be legitimate players. But a lot don’t — that’s the point. Some 2-star guys ends up being the real deal. It’s a crapshoot.
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:21 am
Nick P — Accurate. I think that’s the point. What do you do with the players when you get them? Either Georgia’s recruiting grade has been inaccurate or the players haven’t been coached up when they got there.
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:22 am
CF Smith — Thanks for the comments.
Atlanta Jacket
February 3rd, 2010
11:24 am
We have a great class and I trust CPJ’s judgement and coaching ability. Last year we red-shirted most of the incoming class and I can see that happening again. CPJ is building a solid program.
LAKE OCONEE JOSH NESBITT SUPPORTER
February 3rd, 2010
11:25 am
Schultz:
Got to hand it to you…Once you pick a coach (CPJ) and a school, you hang with them….THIS JUS IN….Since talent doesn’t matter, Tech will now field a team of walkons and play for the National Championship because their head coach is so good….It doesn’t matter who the assistants are, CPJ is so good he no longer needs scholarships….I am a Tech fan, but this has gotten so bad it is almost laughable….Paul has done well, with 4 guys who Chan Gailey recruited who are going to the NFL this year….But so has the man in Athens, who you and Bradley continue to try and pop each chance you get….It is because he is a Christian, is it because they shut the door in your face in Athens, is it an Atlanta/Athens thing??? Come on……Coach Richt, even though he coaches the wrong team, has won 10 games a year…..tell us why you continually bash him and his program…..
Massengill Nozzle, QB GT Commit
February 3rd, 2010
11:26 am
I am on my way to sign now.
It’s great to be a 60-39-5 Jacket.
I had a blast at the foreign student center last night trading Pokemon cards.
Coach Johnson has assured me that I will start in his new fumble ruski, statue of liberty based offense.
He says we’ll also run fake punts on first down. He now admits that the triple option is too gimmicky.
I can’t wait to beat Duke and put the score on a gold ring.
THWG
SOGADOG
February 3rd, 2010
11:26 am
Typical ajc bias. Bradley writes that because UGA is not in the top ten of Rivals.com, the Bulldogs are in trouble. For Tech, you write that the rankings dont matter and the Jackets have a wonderful class. I am going to cut through the BS and tell it like it is; UGA’s RECRUITING CLASS IS A HELLUVA LOT BETTER THAN TECH’S! The sky is not falling in Athens, and things are not as rosy as you think at Tech. Why do you guys spin the facts to make Tech look good and to make UGA bad?
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:26 am
Not Disappointed — Penecoastal? I’ve been to the East Coast, West Coast and Gulf Coast. Where’s the Pene Coast?
DR.J
February 3rd, 2010
11:26 am
Johnson is going to leave GT almost totally devoid of bonafide Div 1s. Think Annapolis south. Have you seen these kids kids play? I have seen many of them. GT wasn’t a top 20 team last year and they won’t be this year either. UGA is slipping right now…hit or miss in what has become a coaching black hole.
LAKE OCONEE JOSH NESBITT SUPPORTER
February 3rd, 2010
11:28 am
Nick P.:
How can we call UGA mediocre when they have beat us 8 out of 9 years….What what we say, it will come back to haunt us since we have now set the bar high as we now expect 10 wins a season…Hope when we win 8 we will not think it is mediocre…..
Jeff Schultz
February 3rd, 2010
11:28 am
Lake Oconee — Yes, every word you wrote is accurate. Everything. Amazing. You’re a visionary. Now go seize the day, sir.
Massengill Nozzle, QB GT Commit
February 3rd, 2010
11:29 am
I just got robbed.
Midday Links «
February 3rd, 2010
11:31 am
[...] Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that Georgia Tech shouldn’t worry about what the recruiting “experts” say [...]
Navigator
February 3rd, 2010
11:33 am
Actually recruits do make the program as well as the coach, only a fool would believe differently. However, the recruits for PJohnson’s success will be big fast offensive linemen and a stout group of defensive players. Until now he had only offense, but in the next two years the defense should catch up. If was the defense that lost the UGA game and the Iowa game, not the offense. If the other team has the ball more than his offense, there’s little chance of winning.
Ramblin Wrecker
February 3rd, 2010
11:35 am
The way I look at it is this:
Did our recruiting class meet specific needs?
Were the players we got, players that other big time programs wanted?
Did we get guys we really targeted and wanted from the start?
I think the answer is yes for GT on all three counts. We had a bad defense last year and we have added several highly recruited players on the defensive line and in the secondary (including a late surprise addition of Louis Young). Most of these kids were holding offers from other BCS programs, a lot of them holding UGA offers. And them seemed to get the kids they really wanted.
I think it is telling that UGA has perennially been in the top ten of the recruiting rankings, but yet struggled to develop those players. Schultz is right. These kids won’t make it to the NFL without good coaching, which UGA was lacking particularly on defense. To me that makes the hire of Al Groh huge for GT (and Todd Grantham too). You figure to get better development out of these kids on defense with these professionals on the case.
FalconUGAFan
February 3rd, 2010
11:35 am
Jeff, I seldom write on these things, because well its really a waste of time. Bunch of grown-ups trying to outbash each other. But I do have to say that the BULK of blogs that come from you and Mark tend to praise GT and Paul Johnson and the BULK of blogs about UGA and Richt are negative. frankly, I don’t care if you or others respond to this. The proof is in the archives. Not whining, just giving my humble opinion.
buzz
February 3rd, 2010
11:35 am
Jeff, terrific article. While I hate to point to another website, the attached link puts a bright spotlight on the uncertain nature of recruiting rankings.
http://blog.al.com/solomon/2010/02/many_top-ranked_signing_classe.html